PivotTrump Tariff Fallout: Who Wins, Who Loses, and What’s Next | Pivot
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
115 min read · 22,695 words- 0:00 – 2:18
Intro
- SGScott Galloway
Before, after. Before, after.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, God. Come on. Okay. Come on! Let's go. He's gonna ... And he's gonna blab too much too. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher in my new studio without books behind me, but they will have them. Here I am, Scott.
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, my God. Could you be in-
- KSKara Swisher
How do I look?
- SGScott Galloway
... more w- You're apologizing for not having books behind you.
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs)
- SGScott Galloway
Jesus.
- KSKara Swisher
Well, I'm gonna have awards. My many awards is what I'm gonna have.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
Okay, good.
- KSKara Swisher
Do you like my new studio? It's in my house.
- SGScott Galloway
Uh, I'm not sure I like the red chair, quite frankly.
- KSKara Swisher
Really, why? Does it upset you? Does it threaten you?
- SGScott Galloway
Um, no. It takes me back to an era. I think you've moved on. I think you've turned the page on the red chair.
- KSKara Swisher
Ah, we'll see. I like it for now. I'm gonna leave it-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah?
- KSKara Swisher
... because it upsets you. It upsets and disturbs you.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
You mean it's, like, retro or that I should ... it reminds you of Walt Mossberg, who I just had lunch with?
- SGScott Galloway
No, I love Walt, Walt.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah?
- SGScott Galloway
I just think you've moved on. I don't know.
- KSKara Swisher
All right. What color chair should I have with you in the Scott era?
- SGScott Galloway
Plaid.
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs)
- SGScott Galloway
Um, no. I don't know. Black, all black.
- KSKara Swisher
I'm gonna put your blanket that I stole from the Fife Arms, uh, where ... for your birthday, I'm gonna put it-
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, good. That'd be nice.
- KSKara Swisher
I'll put that on, okay?
- 2:18 – 12:44
Scott’s College Tour
- SGScott Galloway
Okay.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
College tour back to me.
- KSKara Swisher
Uh, college tour. Tell me about the college tour, because I really don't want to talk about White Lotus in any way.
- SGScott Galloway
Um, so eight schools-
- KSKara Swisher
But you were great.
- SGScott Galloway
... in five days. Seven straight days of full parenting. Cleared everything, didn't talk to anybody. I think I only talked to you once, if that, and it was about the college tour. We went to ... I like to personify everything. And just so I can make sure my kid gets into none of them, I'll personify each of them. So, first one we did was UDub, University of Wisconsin-Madison. And when I was at UCLA, the fraternity next to mine was the Phi Kaps. And the Phi Kaps are basically these white dudes from small towns who abuse substances, who did really well on the SAT.
- KSKara Swisher
Okay.
- SGScott Galloway
That is the University of Wisconsin-Madison, except it's a girl who wears too much makeup, who really likes makeup. And-
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs) What?
- SGScott Galloway
(laughs) But they're doing their job. Actually, UDub Madison-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
I, I rag a lot on higher education. They're doing their job.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
They let in a sh- They let in a shit ton of kids.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
It's crowded. They have money, but it's not the Ritz-Carlton, Madison. They are ... They get it. They, they've ... You know, they got the assignment. I felt really good. I actually met with someone there just so I can virtue signal. They do this amazing program where they train prisoners, or they educate pri- They do classes at local prisons. I'm giving some money to it. They're doing their job. I was really impressed with them.
- KSKara Swisher
Okay. So you like them. But you just insulted them, so your son is not getting in there now. But go ahead, move along.
- SGScott Galloway
There we go. Thanks for that. And then we went to Chicago. Chicago is a dude.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. University of, that's what you mean.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, UChicago. I did a session there in the Inter- Institute of Politics with David Axelrod.
- KSKara Swisher
He's great.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah. Which is available on YouTube. And imagine a guy in a park. They're one of two things. They either win a Nobel Prize ... Everyone who goes there either wins a Nobel Prize or ends up in a park without shoes, feeding pigeons and speaking to themselves.
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs) Okay.
- SGScott Galloway
I mean, these people are ... I can't imagine people I would rather not party with than anyone who went to the University of Chicago.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, wow. Okay. All right. That's the way to do it. Okay.
- SGScott Galloway
Having said that, having said that-
- KSKara Swisher
All right.
- SGScott Galloway
... anyone that interviews with me-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- 12:44 – 21:10
Tariff Chaos
- KSKara Swisher
in.
- SGScott Galloway
Okay.
- KSKara Swisher
US markets are on a roller coaster as we record Monday morning following an epic two-day dive last week, epic in a bad term, that destroyed $6 trillion of market value thanks to Donald Trump's tariffs, which seem, like, inane in the way they were formulated. US stocks tumbled at the opening bell today, briefly surged following a report that Trump was considering a 90-day pause, which many are suggesting to him, including Jamie Dimon and others, um, from, uh, bankers and other people. The White House quickly called that report fake news, and the current Dow S&P 500 are currently back in the red. So, a lot of volatility to say the least. Who knows what Trump will do? In fact, he seems to be sticking by his guns. We'll get to winners and losers from these tariffs a little later, but we've seen overall, we've been seeing Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a US recession of 45%. As Larry Summers put it, "This is the biggest self-inflicted wound we put on our economy in history." In terms of retaliation, China was quick to respond imposing a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the US starting on April 10th. Trump said he's gonna impose an additional 50% on China if they don't drop that 34% increase. The EU is... And of course, the TikTok deal went out the window. The EU is expected to present a united front in the coming days with a set of targeted countermeasures. Uh, uh, I... Let me, let me read, you know, a couple more things. There's retaliat- uh, retaliation moves Tre- uh, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson who looks unhappy, said over the weekend that more than 50 countries have started negotiations with the US since the tariff announcement, whatever, probably like the, the Penguins maybe. Though Trump also said, "My policies will never change." Um, I- I'll get to... Well, I'm just gonna... Howard Lutnick, who seems like the biggest clown of all besides Peter Navarro, which are the two faces of this, also offered his take on how tariffs will lead to a manufacturing resurgence in the US on Face the Nation. This, this quote, I literally was like, "This is the dumbest person I've ever met." So, uh, uh, let's go. Let's listen to that and then we'll get some reaction from you.
- HLHoward Lutnick
Well, remember, the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is gonna come to America. It's gonna be automated. And great Americans, the trade craft of America is going to fix them, is gonna work on them. They're gonna be mechanics. There's gonna be HVAC specialists. There's gonna be electricians. The trade craft of America-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- HLHoward Lutnick
... our high school-educated Americans, the core to our workforce is going to have the greatest resurgence-
- KSKara Swisher
Yep.
- HLHoward Lutnick
... of jobs in the history of America to work on these high-tech factories, which are all coming to America.
- KSKara Swisher
He's an idiot. I don't know what else to say. The screws, the robots, whatever he said. That's sort of first reaction, 'cause then... A- a- and last thing, sorry. Mark Cuban, um, said one thing that tariffs are gonna spur is smuggling, a resurgence. Mark Cuban said that, um, and noted that-
- SGScott Galloway
In the Korean market.
- KSKara Swisher
... maybe that's what the border patrol money is used for.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
So, reaction?
- SGScott Galloway
Well, let's just talk about Apple. Americans don't wanna go into a factory and screw in little screws. Americans don't even wanna put on a hazmat suit and go to a regular factory. This notion that Americans are dying to go back to an assembly line is just not true. You can't get, you can't get Americans to work on a construction site. Do you think they're gonna show up for assembly line work? So, let's, let's talk specifically about Apple. iPhone costs about 12 or 13 hundred bucks. With the existing tariffs, they're going to 2,000. If we tried to produce them in the US, they'd be $3,500. They're not... (laughs) So first off, they're not coming back here. And all that's going to happen is the following. Fewer people are gonna buy fewer iPhones. It'll reduce Apple revenues by $30 to $40 billion to economists. It trades at eight times revenues. So, you're gonna wipe out a third of a trillion dollars. You're gonna have 401 (k) s go down. You're gonna have people be less confident in buying things. You're gonna have Apple employees and shareholders lose a lot of wealth. You're gonna have... I mean, y- you're in... We're not even talking about the second-tier effects, and that is one, we are thrusting people into the arms of China. And two, assume it just goes tit for tat. And any, let's stop talking, we know tariffs are bad. Let's assume that we reduce a billion dollars of, um, Samsung sales, right? I'm trying to think of an analog to Apple. And, uh, Apple sales go down a billion dollars. Samsung trades at, like, 1.2 to two times revenues, Apple trades at eight. So, you think, "Okay, it's bad, but we each lose a billion dollars in revenue and sales through prices or products that are less competitive 'cause they're more expensive." No, we lose $8 billion in market cap, they lose two. So, uh, the, the biggest beneficiary of global trade over the last 30 or 40 years have been, has been the US, because the products we export are high margin, high value-add manufactured products. We're the second-biggest manufacturer in the world. But what we do is we take cheap oil from Canada, we refine it, we take cheap products from other nations and, and earth minerals and we turn them into very expensive 55-point margin NVIDIA chips. So-
- KSKara Swisher
And services. Don't forget about services.
- SGScott Galloway
... Tesla, another example. Toyota, really well-run company, trades at 0.7 times revenue. Tesla trades at eight times revenue. So, for, for every billion dollars in reductions in trade of Tesla, we lose eight billion in market cap, they lose 77 million. So, the echo effect here is so dramatic. And even beyond that, even beyond that, you're going to see, in my view, over the next five years a pretty serious destruction in the value of our stock markets. And it's for the following reasons.The U.S. market trades at a P/E multiple of 28 until Wednesday night, now it's down to 26. Germany is at 22 or 23, Japan at 18, China at 14. Now, why do our companies trade at a higher value for the same earnings, the same profits as, as companies in other nations? It's because we have this umbrella called the U.S. brand, and it means a lot of things. It means risk-aggressive capital, it means entrepreneurship, it means great universities-
- KSKara Swisher
Innovation.
- SGScott Galloway
... great IP. It means immigration. It means rule of law and consistency. We're seen as a consistent trading partner. China doesn't have rule of law. They can put companies out of business right away. They can disappear people. Germany doesn't have as much risk capital, they're not as aggressive. The U.S. is losing, or has lost, two things. Rule of law, we've now decided to basically ignore court orders. We're doing one-offs and companies that make no sense. We're deporting people to El Salvador (laughs) for no reason at all. In addition, we're no longer seen as consistent. The epileptic, the epileptic sclerotic decisions of this guy... So what are you gonna have? You're gonna have a re-rating of the S&P, down from 26 to maybe 15. And here's the thing, all of our companies could continue to outperform the rest of the companies around the world-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
... and their stocks are still gonna go down.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
If you invested in Latin American stocks, it didn't matter how well the company did. You cannot outrun multiple contraction, which is going to happen over the next five years.
- KSKara Swisher
So, so what, uh, so, uh, i- in a lot of this, a lot of the things is, and one of, and Stephanie Real point out cor- correctly, like, it's th- deciding on this one person who has a wrong math and the wrong idea between trade deficits and tariffs and the relationship, every single thing he's saying is actually wrong, and has this thing in his head that everything has to equal out, that if they buy this, we sell that. Like, we have to sell exactly, like, why don't they... And Stephen Miller, same thing. Why don't they buy American cars? Because Toyotas are better, you dumbass, and they make them here too. Like, the, the stupidity is outranked only by the, as you were saying, the rule of law, the lack of any, any consistency, the, the reliab- the ria- reliability of the U.S.. Um, e- one, what has to happen here? What do you imagine is gonna happen here? 'Cause there's now, suddenly Jamie Dimon is speaking out, Bill Ackman has suddenly found his, his balls again, and is saying something truthful, although he, he made sure he sucked up to Trump in the beginning of the, of his screed, which was about a nuclear winter in investing, essentially, um, or in the U.S. economy. Um,
- 21:10 – 26:37
What Should Investors Do?
- KSKara Swisher
w- what's your, what's your advice to people that are panicking right now and trying to figure out what to do with their investments? And then second, w- fir- no, first, what's gonna ha- what do, what do you think is gonna happen, and what's your advice for people if it continues in this way?
- SGScott Galloway
I feel more confident answering the latter than the former.
- KSKara Swisher
Okay.
- SGScott Galloway
I can't predict Donald Trump's actions. I think he is so... Look, the ad- the only adult in the Cabinet here that isn't on unsecure phones and apps, releasing attack plans to the rest of the world, and who has any understanding of economics... I've said this for a long time, the adult in the room is the Dow, the 10-year-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
... and the NASDAQ.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
And if the NASDAQ keeps going down, they're probably going to have to respond. They're not gonna be able to jazz hands their way out of this. This, the argument they're making is the following, is that sometime- the market doesn't represent the real economy. That's actually a relatively good argument. The Dow Jones and NASDAQ are dangerous indicators because they give a false signal of prosperity, and a lot of people aren't impacted by the markets, they're impacted by things like inflation. The problem is, if you were to r- take minimum wage to 25 bucks an hour, or you were to increase taxes on corporations to try and have some fiscal sanity, that would take the markets down, but that would be an investment that would be worth it. This is just making products more expensive, making our products less competitive overseas, and convincing the rest of the world to reconfigure the supply chain to not include American businesses or professionals. That's just, that's just shooting yourself in the foot and then taking your gun and putting it in your mouth. So, but I have no idea what he's gonna do. I just don't get it. I think if this gets much worse, he's probably going to do some bullshit, like... So for example, Jamie Dimon's suggestion-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
... that's even worse, because it's the uncertainty that hurts-
- KSKara Swisher
90 days.
- SGScott Galloway
... more than the tariffs.
- KSKara Swisher
What's he gonna do at 90 days, right?
- SGScott Galloway
We're gonna do the, we're gonna pull another TikTok?
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
It just... For God's sakes, we'd be better off if he just came up with some sort of, not this tariff level, but some sort of modest tariff, and let people plan their business. It's the uncertainty and the unpredictability. It's like being in a relationship with someone who's bipolar, speaking for a friend, you don't know who you're waking up next to.
- KSKara Swisher
Also, it, it's incorrect. One of the people who they base the, the, the, the, the, the theories on has written a piece in the New York Times saying, "They got this totally wrong, and they did the math wrong, and it's a quarter. What they should put here is a quarter, o- of what I said, you know, I said a quarter of what they're doing here, which means they don't know how to do math." That's the part that's frightening. They actually don't understand what they've done, like pushing the nuclear button, "What does this do?" kind of thing. I don't... That makes me more nervous.
- SGScott Galloway
The key to building a business, the team of the best players wins. Greatness is in the agency of other. Do you know these assclowns? Do you know where they came up with the formula for their tariffs?
- KSKara Swisher
I know-
- SGScott Galloway
If you type in "tariff," give me a tariff that e- that le- levels up our trade debt, which is a stupid... You want a trade deficit. But if you ask the question, "Put in place tariffs against every nation based on bringing equilibrium to our trade deficit," if you put it into ChatGPT, you come back with the exact formulas they came up with.
- KSKara Swisher
Yes. They're-
- SGScott Galloway
Their economic advisors-
- KSKara Swisher
Google-
- SGScott Galloway
... are fucking turning to ChatGPT.
- KSKara Swisher
Are turning to-
- SGScott Galloway
Th- uh, let's go to your second question, what to do-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
... as an investor.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
This is what you do. Nothing.And that is, whether it's-
- 26:37 – 31:45
Tariff Winners & Losers
- KSKara Swisher
Scott, we're back. The number of sectors took a beating from Trump's tariff and it's been particularly rough for tech, big tech. Um, in two days after the tariffs were announced, Apple dropped 16%, Meta fell 14, Amazon was down 13, nice job boys of going to the inauguration, that really paid off for you. The two-day drop wiped out $31 billion in net worth for Elon Musk and $23 billion for Jeff Bezos and $27 billion for Mark Zuckerberg, I feel so bad for them. How's the investment in Trump paying off now? As a reporter over the weekend a number of these folks, uh, want to go to Mar-a-Lago, uh, uh, to talk to him about this, I don't know if they've done it yet but this was the rumor that was going down, that they are really... And, and also bankers. Um, Elon doesn't seem to agree with Trump on tariffs and of course speaking his mind he said on Saturday that he hoped Europe and the US would ... affect them to zero tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone. Totally opposite he also had a couple of posts calling out Peter Navarro, Trump's trade advisor, who's such an idiot. All the, uh, uh, this I agree with Elon on, all this, uh, as EU regulators are reportedly preparing to inflict a billion dollar fine against X for breaking the law to combat illicit content and disinformation, that's separate. Um, this is interesting that he's doing that. The person that's looking more like a genius than ever, Warren Buffett, he didn't kiss the Trump wing, he's been growing his cash pile in the last year, he's currently sitting around $334 billion. Never doubt Warren Buffett, I guess. And then a f- also a few losers, fast fashion bra- uh, brands Shein, a Scott favorite, and Temu. Uh, Trump has closed the loophole that gave the tariff exemption on goods shipped from China valued under $800, I think it's called De Minimis or something like that. It no longer applies as of May 2nd, a lot of people didn't like th- this loophole. Um, without the loophole prices and orders could jump as much as 30%. Amazon might also take a hit 'cause they ran into the low cost storefront, uh, powered by, um, powered by, uh, China, uh, Chinese goods, cheap Chinese goods. One of the things that was really strange was, uh, Scott Besson talking about how Americans shouldn't buy cheap stuff anymore, too bad and that's too bad for you Scott, uh, 'cause you can afford cashmere all the time but that was another message they were sending out is we should get off our, our cheap goods, uh, uh, tradition.
- SGScott Galloway
So no longer shop at Walmart? The biggest employer-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, right, whatever, like-
- SGScott Galloway
... in the US.
- KSKara Swisher
... none of your fucking business, dudes. So talk a little bit about tech because also the last thing is tech, it sells a lot of services into Europe and in c- cloud computing, also so do the McKenzies of the world and that's where we have a trade, um, surplus in services from what I understand. So talk a little bit about the why it's impacting tech and, you know, sort of the, the, the, you see the real cracks from the Elons and the others, Bezos is probably apoplectic. Trump, um, Cook is apoplectic, I'm sure and, and a little, and Warren Buffett looks (laughs) he's 105 years old and he's once again the GOAT.
- SGScott Galloway
It's just... Okay, so let's look at Europe versus the US. We export NVIDIA chips, they, NVIDIA trades at 24 times revenues. For every billion dollars they sell in additional chips to other markets, uh, institutional investors and employees of NVIDIA register a $24 billion gain. Uh, California gets enormous tax revenue from the incremental gains of shareholder value. When Mercedes exports Mercedes into the United States they trade at .23, if they lose a billion dollars in business, they lose $23 million in market cap. 23 million versus 24 billion in lost market cap?
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
We, we have taken... Global trade has been great for the world, it's made the world more prosperous and to be clear, uh, we haven't done a good job of protecting the people who get hurt, some people get hurt. There are certain industries, South Korea's done a good job of protecting nascent industries strategic to them with tariffs. Tariffs can be used. These blanket tariffs, uh, or let me put it this way, the gr- one of the greatest increases... in global prosperity over the last 50 years, you- it would be hard press, you might think, "Well, it's the world order where democracies are bound together under the umbrella of, of US prosperity and NATO and military might. We have kept the peace. Wars are very destructive to economics." But at the top of the list would probably be global trade.
- KSKara Swisher
Global trade.
- SGScott Galloway
Find out what you can produce best at the lowest price and trade with someone who's really good at producing something else-
- KSKara Swisher
Hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
... and you both get better products at a lower price and you have a greater quality of life. So there is, it- it- it's not only reduces the prosperity of the world, it massively, there's no nation that benefits more from global trade because our products are high margin, high value add. When Canada ships energy into the US, we then add value to it, we refine it. We turn it into higher grade petroleum and we sell it at triple the price to other people.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
We- we-
- KSKara Swisher
As you noted.
- SGScott Galloway
People... We are in the business of high value add, high margin, rule of law, IP driven, that creates so much revenue
- 31:45 – 36:19
Will Tariffs Bring Manufacturing Resurgence?
- SGScott Galloway
and shareholder value.
- KSKara Swisher
So what, what about this argument that we're gonna bring domestic manufacturing back here? And everyone, even-
- SGScott Galloway
(sighs)
- KSKara Swisher
... even the crazy stations are like, "That's gonna take 10 years." If, if, and they're not gonna do it.
- SGScott Galloway
It'll never happen.
- KSKara Swisher
It'll never happen.
- SGScott Galloway
It'll never happen.
- KSKara Swisher
It'll never happen.
- SGScott Galloway
And first off, first off-
- KSKara Swisher
We don't want it to happen.
- SGScott Galloway
... we're not just, we're not just a taco s- truck with masseuses, we're the second-largest manufacturer in the world.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
But we manufacture AI chips. We, we manufacture really high value add products that have decent margins. We have purposefully outsourced low, low value add, low margin, low shareholder value products. And American consumers, I'm sorry, American workers don't want to go back into factories. 98% of businesses that sell into global trade are small and medium-sized businesses. 40 million jobs are related to or depend on global trade. And people say, "Well, 40 million or 355, that's not that bad." Only 150 million people in the US work. So (laughs) the, the notion we're gonna bring back, we don't want to bring back. I mean, y- you need, what you need are great, great middle class, well-paying jobs, vocational. You need more people trained to install energy-efficient HVAC heaters at 30 bucks an hour. We need that. But there is not a line to go work on a factory floor in Lansing, Michigan.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- SGScott Galloway
This isn't what people do. Try and renovate a house and see how much people want to actually build a home that were born here.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
They don't.
- KSKara Swisher
Guess who wants to do that? Immigrants.
- SGScott Galloway
Exa- exactly right. So this notion, this notion that everyone's lining up to go work at a factory job in the Midwest on an assembly line, yeah, g-
- KSKara Swisher
It's just, it's such a, it's like an an- it's like an '80s guy idea of the world. Like, seriously. And they, I get, l- you know, I do actually get the arguments about, um, you know, sort of hollowing out American manufacturing by doing cheaper goods abroad, and the, going too far with free trade and not, you know, retraining people. There's great arguments to be made about trying to figure out new ways for people to have jobs. But this way, the, the idea, "We're gonna bring back factory..." Every time Howard Lutnick gets on the air, I'm like, "Are you living in a different century?" Like, it's just, it, yeah, it's, it's been stuck in Trump's head for 40 years. And what's astonishing is the Republicans are like, "Let's listen to the President." W- w- let's not.
- SGScott Galloway
He knows, he's playing 4D chess. We just don't get it.
- KSKara Swisher
Yes. No, that's not what's happening. He's stuck in the '80s. He's stuck in some era that no longer exists. And wouldn't it be great if the wom- women didn't vote and, and m- there was no such thing as we do and I could do whatever I felt like? This is a different era. And what's, uh, what, what, what kind of amazes me is that it hasn't gotten through to, that the Republicans are still sticking with this. Such a test of MAGA. I've never seen anything... This has got to be the ultimate cult test. Will you take the, will you take the Kool-Aid? Will you actually drink the Kool-Aid?
- SGScott Galloway
We're, we're-
- KSKara Swisher
Kind of thing.
- SGScott Galloway
... so narcissistic, we refuse to acknowledge that the rest of the world is a pretty interesting case study in history.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
And the '50s and '60s, Latin America embraced protectionist policies, their economy did not grow. They opened up, their economy boomed. They, the last time we had tariffs like this, they weren't even as big as this.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- SGScott Galloway
Was in 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- 36:19 – 38:37
How Tariffs are “Gift to China”
- KSKara Swisher
to talk about is, is this is a gift to China. This is-
- SGScott Galloway
100%.
- KSKara Swisher
If China needed a way out of their economic doldrums, we've just handed them the key. Like, "Here you go."
- SGScott Galloway
Well, well, let me just ask you one question. I, I-
- KSKara Swisher
Sure.
- SGScott Galloway
This is a sincere question.
- KSKara Swisher
All right.
- SGScott Galloway
If they can, if they can have a conspiracy that in the basement, which doesn't exist, of a pizza joint, Hillary Clinton is drinking the blood of children they're sacrificing-
- KSKara Swisher
Even if it doesn't-
- SGScott Galloway
... I can go semi-conspiracy theory.
- KSKara Swisher
Okay, go ahead. Let's hear it.
- SGScott Galloway
Putin and Xi-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
... have each put $10 billion into the Trump coin, or they've committed to it.
- KSKara Swisher
Hmm, I don't think he's doing it.
- SGScott Galloway
You're gonna be the wealthiest man in history.
- KSKara Swisher
Hmm. But he's old. No.
- SGScott Galloway
You're the wealthiest man in history.
- KSKara Swisher
No.
- SGScott Galloway
But you need to do the following things. You need to withdraw from Ukraine. You need to fragment the strongest US/Western democracy alliances in history to give us license to do whatever the fuck we want.
- KSKara Swisher
So he's the ultimate Manchurian Candidate-
- SGScott Galloway
And-
- KSKara Swisher
... is what you're saying.
- SGScott Galloway
And-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
... we need you to thrust the biggest trade, and China's all about money.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
We need you to thrust the biggest trading partners into our arms. We need you to get Japan and South Korea to start talking to us again. If it was not Trump-Vance-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
This is the question. If it was not Trump-Vance, but it was Putin-Xi, what would be any fucking different-
- 38:37 – 45:16
TikTok Ban Delayed Again
- KSKara Swisher
Trump delayed the ban on TikTok for 75 days for a second time. How ridiculous. A steal for the sale was reportedly close until Trump made his tariffs announcement, causing China to pull out of the negotiations, obviously. Oracle, Blackstone, and Andreessen Horowitz, all friends of Donald Trump, were reportedly involved. Trump has previously suggested he could lessen tariffs on China in exchange for a deal. I'm sure China's just thrilled to hear that. I don't know why China would do anything. Like, maybe they will, if they- if they want it. I don't know why you- you would do anything. Um, so talk... Let's do a very brief thing about this because it's, um... I- I- I think it's just gonna sit there in limbo and just bump along, right? I don't... There's no deal here. They're gonna try to bring it under 20%. I think that's the amount, the ownership of China, or Chinese, the Chinese government and, or Chinese investors.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah. Let you go first here. What are your thoughts going into, uh-
- KSKara Swisher
I don't know what's gonna happen here. It feels like a story from the 1980s too. I mean, I think it's n- n- I think eventually it'll have some convoluted thing that's not gonna make a difference or keep us safer in any way. I think they need to make the case of why it is dangerous. I never... I- I sort of like the law but didn't like the... I didn't feel they made their case. And at the same time, I'm absolutely certain the Chinese are manipulating it. (laughs) Like, I don't even feel like that. So, I- I- I think, you know, I think- I think it's a- it's eventually a dwindling company, right? It will... Like, over time if it's not focusing on this product... I'm in this new zone, Scott, of like, the reason things fail is 'cause products suck. Like, that's, you know, and maybe 'cause I had lunch with-
- SGScott Galloway
Products are the bomb again. Yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
You know... What? I'm sorry?
- SGScott Galloway
Well, the, uh, '45 to '95 was the brand era, but digital unlock around product is the new bomb again. It sounds more like this problem.
- KSKara Swisher
Pro- I, uh, like, I'm like, if- if Tesla made great cars-
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
... people would still buy them even though he's a joke.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, and no advertising. Yeah, they don't advertise.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. I- I really do think that. I'm thinking to myself. I use Amazon, and I don't want to use it 'cause I've... I'm really irritated by Jeff Bezos, but it's a great product.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah.
- KSKara Swisher
And it's really hard.
- SGScott Galloway
That's right.
- KSKara Swisher
Like, I think if- if it gets the ball off of-
- SGScott Galloway
How do you think I feel using Starlink to talk-
- KSKara Swisher
I know.
- SGScott Galloway
... call you on FaceTime?
- KSKara Swisher
I know. I know. Um, I think it's just really... I think it- it- it... The problems that this will suffer as a product because of all this mishigas. And so, I- I- I don't feel kids talk... I mean, they're gonna move on to the next thing. That's what I feel like. And- and eventually they'll come up with some convoluted way where Marc Andreessen gets even richer than he already is and more toxic and won't make any sense, and it won't protect Americans better, and China will continue to domi- I mean, just to me, this has been s- all of this has been a gimme to China, just one big gimme to a government that does not want us to dominate. At all.
- SGScott Galloway
So-
- KSKara Swisher
That's all.
- SGScott Galloway
... as- as it relates to TikTok, I just don't think we would ever let C- CBS, NBC, and ABC-
- KSKara Swisher
Nope.
- SGScott Galloway
... be owned by the Kremlin in the '60s. I think it's fucking insane to have-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
... TikTok. I think we're raising a generation of civic, military, and business leaders who hate America. 50% of people our age feel good about America, one in 10 young people. And, uh, I might not, I might even be wrong, but just from a trade symmetry standpoint, there are no media companies in China and we can't-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. Agreed.
- SGScott Galloway
... afford to have this. Uh, the average 14-year-old boy in America is spending 17 hours on a media platform controlled by the CCP.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
It's just not a good idea.
- 45:16 – 57:11
Wins and Fails
- KSKara Swisher
Okay, Scott, uh, we're gonna do wins and fails. I think I shall go first. I think win, I really enj- uh... I love a protest. I thought these hands-off protests were... Everyw- every city was full. I loved seeing them in Turkey. I love, like, people turning out. I don't know if they work or not, but DC and New York, 100,000 attendees each. They were... Amanda went down, I did not. And, like, average people, it was not like the professional protesters that you might see. Um, uh, themes were, were administration's attacks on Social Security, the layoffs, deportations, Elon Musk, of course. Uh, I love the signs. I... They make me laugh. IKEA has better cabinets, which I (laughs) always find they really do. Wisconsin hates Elon so much, it could be one of his kids. Um, uh, abort, uh, unwanted, uh, presidencies and now we're all the... We're, we're all, uh, we're all the couch now. Um, Trump, of course, spent the weekend golfing. I mean, just the visuals couldn't be any better. And I, I kind of just like it. It gets people in- emboldened. I don't know if protests matter, but this one had a, had a real moment- momentum feel, which is nice. And we'll see if that matters or not. For the fail, so obvious, uh, 60 Minutes, which is... You know, people talk about the decline of traditional media. People who do real reporting, really, we owe them a debt of gratitude. They did a story on Sunday on, uh, Venezuelan migrants who got deported to prison in El Salvador, and their reporting found no criminal records for 75% of those migrants. These people were taken off the street, many of them with legal, um, legally here, and put in a prison. It's literally like a, a, a... you know, a, a... just a- a movie. It's a movie. It feels like a movie. This is so cruel. And the people who are doing this to people and, and putting people in prison without any criminal record and sending them to another country they're not even from, uh, I hope they go to jail themselves at some point. And, and s- pretending they can't take them back, I just... uh, I, I cannot... uh, this is grotesque in every single way. Grotesque. So that's a re- it's, like, such an embarrassment. And people aren't paying attention to it 'cause of all this stuff about the tariffs and the stock market, but boy, what a human rights, um, what a human rights disaster for us as our country. We have no ability to say we're a good people if we're doing things like that.
- SGScott Galloway
I like both of those. Um, I'm an ageist. I think all of these old people need to go away.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
I think that, uh, Biden's inability and the people around him, uh, their lack of backbone to acknowledge that biology always wins is... Uh, if we've decided the prefrontal cortex of a 34-year-old is too immature to have that person have access to nuclear weapons, then for God's sakes, an 80-year-old (laughs) shouldn't have their finger on the button. And my win is, the market is responding. A Democrat, I think it's Saikat Chakrabarti, who was the comms director for 35-year-old, uh, former boss Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, um, has decided that he's going to challenge Rep Nancy Pelosi, or he did cha- he did challenge her. For Chakrabarti, 39-year-old software engineer turned political operative, he-Um, you know, I like seeing, uh, young people rising to the, um, challenge. In Los Angeles, 37-year-old Jake Rachlev announced last week that he was running for the seat of his former boss, Rep. Brad Sherman, who's 70. Brad, Representative Sherman, you served your country well. Now collect a gold watch and go f- play fucking golf. You're too old. In Michigan, State Senator Mallidy, Mallory McM- McMorrow, 38, launched a bid for her state's open US Senate seat by talking about her experiences as a millennial. I mean, there are young people stepping up here. In Illinois, Kat-
- KSKara Swisher
I saw her at MSNBC. I was on Jen Psaki's show on Sunday and I ran into, uh, Mallory. She's really impressive.
- SGScott Galloway
Very impressive.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
Illi- And in Illinois, Kat Abubakar. That's the problem with all these young names, their names are too fucking complicated.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, no.
- SGScott Galloway
Change your name to like Smith, just old-
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs) Oh, God.
- SGScott Galloway
Change your name to Smith.
- KSKara Swisher
And, we're out.
- SGScott Galloway
You'll get more votes. You'll get more votes.
- KSKara Swisher
And, oh my God. (laughs)
- SGScott Galloway
Anyways, uh, Kat, I like that. That's who I'm gonna call her, Rep. Kat.
- KSKara Swisher
Okay.
- SGScott Galloway
Uh, Rep. Rep. Jan, uh, Schakowsky. God, what is it with these people?
- KSKara Swisher
Oh my God. Really?
- SGScott Galloway
Uh, who is eight-
- KSKara Swisher
You're not doing this.
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, wait.
- KSKara Swisher
Go ahead.
- SGScott Galloway
She's running for the seat of Rep. J- Jan Schakowsky, who is 80. Go home!
- KSKara Swisher
Oh yeah, she's a-
- SGScott Galloway
Go-
- KSKara Swisher
She's an influencer, but yeah. That's really-
- SGScott Galloway
Go home, Rep. Jan Schakowsky.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
80. Go. Home.
Episode duration: 57:11
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