What Donald Trump's Victory Means for Elon Musk and Big Tech | Pivot

1. 0:00 – 1:12

   Big Tech rushes to congratulate Trump (and why Bezos stands out)

   1. KSKara Swisher0:00

      Big tech leaders are taking to social media, of course, to congratulate Donald Trump. This is- this is typical. Let's just start off with that. Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, and Sam Altman wished Trump well. I thought they were pretty anodyne. So did, um, Mark Cuban. He was like, "Godspeed." You know what I mean? He was like, "You won fair and square," which I thought was fair. I thought that was classy of him to do so. He didn't, like, slavishly say something. The person who did, Jeff Bezos, was, uh, quite different from the others. Um, he was one of the first to kiss the ring, calling Trump's win an extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory. It- it had, uh, uh, i- i- it did not have a tone of someone who owns The Washington Post. He's the only one who actually has another thing he's gotta think about, which he didn't at all, in any way, so I thought that was problematic. And it was much more effusive than the others. Um, you know, they all wanna work with this administration. They've done it before. Um, they don't wanna be in his crosshairs and they'd like to get rid of, uh, all the different investigations and- and things like that. Although, a lot of Republicans like these investigations very much. And so that's a really interesting, uh, pushback. Um, talk a little bit about these, uh, CEOs, obviously. You s- more than- more than anyone, tech CEOs weighed in.

2. 1:12 – 2:01

   Why flattering Trump can be rational shareholder strategy

   1. SGScott Galloway1:12

      They're smart to do it, Kara. He responds to this type of obsequious flattery. And if they're- they're- they're focused on their shareholders, they're smart to do it. And it's- it- you kinda have to- you throw up a little bit in your mouth when- when it's more than anything just- than just a polite congratulations. But if you reverse engineer it to shareholder value, they're smart to do it, just like a lot of foreign leaders pretend that he's really interesting and are- and that they're fascinated with him. And he's gonna get more- he's gonna get more... Uh, you know, when- when you're courting someone and they tell you that they're really into jewelry or baseball trading cards and that they will like you if you buy them these things, you buy them these things. And he's made it clear that if you say nice things about him, it works. Uh, I don't... So I think they're smart to do it.

3. 2:01 – 2:25

   Bezos, The Post, and the “should vs. is” debate

   1. KSKara Swisher2:01

      Yeah, I agree, but I thought Bezos' was a little bit abusive. Compare... If you could put them next to each other, it's really quite a different tone. And he does also own The Washington Post. He might've been a little less-

   2. SGScott Galloway2:11

      It's around-

   3. KSKara Swisher2:12

      ... ass as yet.

   4. SGScott Galloway2:12

      Yeah, it's all about money. It- it- The Washington Post is nothing but-

   5. KSKara Swisher2:15

      I understand that, but he, he-

   6. SGScott Galloway2:15

      ... nothing but a nuisance for him right now.

   7. KSKara Swisher2:17

      Oh, he shouldn't own it then. He shouldn't own it, then stop owning something-

   8. SGScott Galloway2:20

      Okay.

   9. KSKara Swisher2:20

      ... where you have to-

   10. SGScott Galloway2:20

       We- we're talking about should versus is.

   11. KSKara Swisher2:22

       I-

   12. SGScott Galloway2:22

       He-

   13. KSKara Swisher2:23

       Yeah.

   14. SGScott Galloway2:23

       Jeff Bezos-

   15. KSKara Swisher2:23

       Yeah.

   16. SGScott Galloway2:23

       ... is all about money.

4. 2:25 – 3:14

   The quiet power behind the scenes: Peter Thiel’s influence

   1. KSKara Swisher2:25

      Well, he already- he already did that already with the- dumping the, uh, endorsement. So I just felt like he should've maybe been a little less kiss-assy. Anything about the Peter Thiel factor? I think he's the quiet one here. Musk gets all the... We're gonna talk about Elon in a second, but I think Peter Thiel is the one, the real mastermind here in so many ways. Um, and I know people... I thought he clocked Trump early, um, and was in there at the last election. I think he clocked Vance. Um, I think he's been quiet. He's doesn't need all the attention the way, uh, Musk does. I think he's far smarter than Elon Musk in many ways. Um, and I think he's the... All roads lead to Peter Thiel in this regard, even though he- it seemed like he was out of the election, right? But I don't... I feel like he's- every one of his tenants is here, is present here.

5. 3:14 – 4:29

   Succession risk: Trump’s age makes Vance—and Thiel—more consequential

   1. SGScott Galloway3:14

      You- you first highlighted this to me, and it struck me as something... I hadn't- I just hadn't thought about it, not at least it... I hadn't connected the dots the way you had, and I've thought about it more and more, and I think what you're saying makes sense because, I mean, here's the scary thing. With Trump's age and body mass index, there's about a one in three chance he leaves the White House feet first. You know, in four years and two months, an obese, what is he, 78-year-old man, it would be very hard to get life insurance. And that puts a guy in the White House who will never utter one word to Peter Thiel, and that word is no. He owes everything to Peter Thiel. He- that's how he got to be a senator. That's how he got the VP spot. And so if Peter Thiel calls him and says, "I need you to do a- this tax," or, "Put a tariff here," or, "Deregulate this," or, "Create a floating island where billionaires don't have to pay tax," or, "We totally ban the following activities," or s- uh, uh, Vance- Vance, if he can, will do it. I- I just don't think-

   2. KSKara Swisher4:17

      Yeah.

   3. SGScott Galloway4:17

      ... Vance could ever say no to Peter. He is where he is, he is one heartbeat from the presidency because- not because of an impressive business career-

   4. KSKara Swisher4:25

      (laughs)

   5. SGScott Galloway4:25

      ... and not because he's a great politician, because of Peter Thiel.

6. 4:29 – 5:24

   Elon Musk’s payoff: what $130M for Trump could buy

   1. KSKara Swisher4:29

      Yep. Yep. That's the one to watch. And even though Elon, as usual, the circus clown, likes to take all the attention. As Bloomberg put it, Elon is about to find out what $130 million for Trump gets him. We mentioned the Tesla stock surge, that's added $26 billion to his net worth, but Elon stands to benefit in a number of other ways, including government efficiency commission role, EV and autonomous driving policies that benefit Tesla, and more government contracts for SpaceX. Uh, uh, Tr- uh, Trump has previously pledged his support for Elon's goal of sending a rocket to Mars. Um, that one I don't mind so much. I honestly don't. And as I mentioned, I think Elon merges X with Truth Social, so I also think they're gonna have a falling out. I really feel like this is coming. If I had to make any one prediction, that's wh- I feel like... Peter is very quiet in the background and gets exactly what he wants. Elon can't help himself and neither can Trump, and Trump's the president. So, thoughts?

7. 5:24 – 6:29

   Musk’s donation as a blockbuster ROI trade

   1. SGScott Galloway5:24

      Well, like, uh, this arguably, you could say that Musk's $119 million-

   2. KSKara Swisher5:32

      Great investments.

   3. SGScott Galloway5:32

      ... in donations to Trump were one of the best investments that's ever been made. He made it over approximately-

   4. KSKara Swisher5:37

      Mm-hmm.

   5. SGScott Galloway5:37

      ... three or six months, and in exchange, his net worth has gone up $15 billion just from his Tesla shares, which-

   6. KSKara Swisher5:42

      Yeah.

   7. SGScott Galloway5:42

      ... skyrocketed on- on news that Trump was retaking the White House. So-

   8. KSKara Swisher5:47

      Mm-hmm.

   9. SGScott Galloway5:47

      ... if- if someone said to any billionaire or any institution or any hedge fund, "Uh, here's $119 million. If you give us $119 million, we think if the markets are right, there's a two-thirds chance you're gonna get 15 billion back?"

   10. KSKara Swisher6:02

       Yep, that's a great mindset. It's small-

   11. SGScott Galloway6:03

       So you- you gotta give it to the guy.

   12. KSKara Swisher6:05

       ... the whole time. Yeah.

   13. SGScott Galloway6:06

       Uh, best- best investment of the year was Musk dollar, uh, uh, his- his $119 million investment in the Trump campaign.

   14. KSKara Swisher6:15

       Yeah, 'cause he was ne- If- if she had won, he was never gonna get that dinged for it, also.

   15. SGScott Galloway6:19

       No.

   16. KSKara Swisher6:19

       So. Yeah. Yep.

   17. SGScott Galloway6:20

       Yeah, that's exactly right, 15 billion on 119 million? That's the best trade of 2024.

   18. KSKara Swisher6:25

       Yeah. So what, what's gonna happen next now?

8. 6:29 – 7:13

   Scott’s Polymarket near-bet and disclaimer: this is gambling

   1. SGScott Galloway6:29

      Well, so I need to disclose, we talked about this. I was planning, you know, under, uh, see above, got it wrong. I thought Polymarket, the gambling site, which had, it was 40-60-

   2. KSKara Swisher6:40

      It's owned by Peter Thiel, FYI, or it was invested in by Peter Thiel.

   3. SGScott Galloway6:43

      I didn't know that. So 40-60 Harris to Trump's likelihood of being elected, so you were gonna get two and a half to one. I saw that as asymmetric upside because I thought it was a coin flip according to the polls that I saw. So I was- I was gonna take $400,000 and put it on Harris thinking I could get a million back. And I wanna be clear for people listening, this is not investing. This is gambling. And I can afford to lose that and it would ruin maybe an afternoon, but it wouldn't have any impact on my life, and I don't wanna in any way tell people that they should be doing this. So,

9. 7:13 – 8:38

   Pivot to a hedge: options strategy on Trump Media (DJT)

   1. SGScott Galloway7:13

      but I was planning to do it, so I went to the site, signed up for it, wait till Harris went down to 38, then up to 42. And the site said, "You can't be a US citizen." And then it said, "You can't transfer money in from the UK." So I could not figure out how to get one of these betting sites up, so I went to a different strategy. I decided to... I sold... I did a- a- a call, uh, caller call strategy on Donald Trump Media. And that is, I thought, if this stock... If he loses, the stock goes below 10. If he wins, it could skyrocket, but I also thought if he wins, this is no longer a prediction vessel, it's just a shitty company. And I actually thought-

   2. KSKara Swisher7:52

      Right.

   3. SGScott Galloway7:52

      ... there's a chance it might go down even if he wins.

   4. KSKara Swisher7:55

      Mm-hmm.

   5. SGScott Galloway7:55

      So I sold calls at 20 bucks a share, way, way into the money thinking this thing could crash. There's a good likelihood it could crash.

   6. KSKara Swisher8:06

      Mm-hmm.

   7. SGScott Galloway8:06

      But I was worried, well, what if something fucking crazy happens and it goes to 400 and I owe someone $8 million who I sold these calls to?

   8. KSKara Swisher8:14

      Right. Yeah.

   9. SGScott Galloway8:14

      So I bought calls way out of the money at 60. I got $20 in premium for buying or selling calls at 20. I got six bucks. I- it cost me six bucks to buy calls at 60. So my downside was limited to like two and a half million bucks. My upside capped at one and a half million. And what's happened is he won, the stock spiked. I'm like, "Oh fuck, bad day for Scott." But since then-

10. 8:38 – 9:20

    DJT after the election: from “tracking stock” to “shitty company,” and what comes next

    1. KSKara Swisher8:38

       Yeah.

    2. SGScott Galloway8:38

       ... the strategy around, it's no longer a tracking stock, it's just a shitty company now-

    3. KSKara Swisher8:42

       Mm-hmm.

    4. SGScott Galloway8:43

       ... it's come down, I think, it opened at about 31 bucks today.

    5. KSKara Swisher8:46

       Yeah, it's gone down.

    6. SGScott Galloway8:47

       So I got very lucky. It's better to be lucky than good. I was gonna make a straight wager on Harris and couldn't because I'm in the UK and I'm impatient with websites.

    7. KSKara Swisher8:55

       Yeah, probably you can't use it. Yeah, that's right. Yep. Mm-hmm.

    8. SGScott Galloway8:56

       So this- this kind of, I think it's called a ca- a collared call strategy so far-

    9. KSKara Swisher9:03

       Mm-hmm.

    10. SGScott Galloway9:03

        So far is working out because Donald Trump Media, I think people are waking up and going, "Okay, now what?" This is a shitty little company-

    11. KSKara Swisher9:10

        Yeah.

    12. SGScott Galloway9:10

        ... that's no longer- no longer a prediction machine or a gambling. It's basically-

    13. KSKara Swisher9:16

        Right.

    14. SGScott Galloway9:16

        ... shares or rep- ownership in a company that has no revenues but is hemorrhaging money.

11. 9:20 – 10:54

    Will Musk and Trump fall out? The ‘too much oxygen’ theory

    1. KSKara Swisher9:20

       Yeah. Interesting. We'll wait and see for you. But anyway, Peter Thiel, uh, has an, and along with the founder of, uh, Ethereum, raised money for Polymarket last, uh, earlier this year. Just so you know, he's involved in that one too. Um, it's interesting times, but- but, uh, uh, Musk and Trump falling out thought, real quick thought, then we'll go on.

    2. SGScott Galloway9:40

       You know more about this than I do, Kara. What... It's an interesting theory.

    3. KSKara Swisher9:42

       It's an interesting-

    4. SGScott Galloway9:42

       Why do you think?

    5. KSKara Swisher9:44

       Because you might... There was a movie with Jean-Claude Van Damme where the future and the past person could never come together. It was ca- called Time Cop. I recommend it to everybody. And you couldn't ever be in the same room with your future self and your present self or your past self, whatever, 'cause y- it would blow up. The world can't take that in the same place. And at the very end, the- the villain gets into a... He gets him to get in the room together and then everything breaks loose and they blow up essentially. I don't quite understand it, whatever. I think these people can't co-exist together in the same room for much- for too long. That's my- that's my sense. Maybe I'll be completely wrong, but I feel like that Trump likes the attention and Elon likes the attention and there's only so much attention to go around. And if the same... Remember when Bannon got kicked out when he got all the attention as being the puppet master of Trump? And then Bannon got... Uh, no, he didn't get totally kicked to the curb. He kept getting brought back but kicked to the curb and brought back. He kicked Bannon to the curb very early, we forget this, uh, in the Trump administration, because he sucked up all the oxygen. So Elon might be very smart to not suck up all the oxygen.

Episode duration: 10:55