What the Latest Polls Tell Us About the 2024 Race

Trump is retaining about 92% of his 2020 voters while Biden is only holding around 87%, and that small gap appears consistently across polls; re‑mobilizing these prior Biden voters is the most straightforward path to making the race competitive again.

She performs well against Biden in head‑to‑head general-election polling, but only about 28% of Republicans list her as a first or second choice, compared with far higher numbers for Trump and DeSantis, making her a factional, non‑MAGA candidate in a MAGA party.

Polls show voters are currently thinking far more about Biden than Trump; Democrats need to refocus attention on Trump’s record, temperament, and plans, reminding voters what a second Trump term would actually look like rather than just defending Biden’s record.

Voters care less about job numbers or the rate of inflation and more about the concrete price of goods and their cost of living; Democrats should use their policy record as proof they can lower costs and raise wages, especially in contrast to Republicans’ alignment with the wealthy and corporations.

Pfeiffer argues Democrats should avoid amplifying Trump’s strongman image and instead portray him as weak, deferential to CEOs and dictators, and primarily motivated by fear of legal consequences, while tying his abuse of power to tangible harms on issues like abortion, workers’ rights, and the environment.