What the Latest Polls Tell Us About the 2024 Race

1. 0:00 – 15:00

   Dan Pfeiffer is the…

   1. KSKara Swisher0:00

      Dan Pfeiffer is the co-host of Crooked Media's pod Save America. He's also the host of a new podcast, Poller Coaster, ha ha-

   2. DPDan Pfeiffer0:07

      (laughs)

   3. SGScott Galloway0:07

      ... which is launching this week and will feature analysis on the latest polls and voter trends. Welcome, Dan.

   4. DPDan Pfeiffer0:13

      Thanks for having me.

   5. KSKara Swisher0:14

      So, since you're the expert here, let's start with some polling. Over the weekend-

   6. DPDan Pfeiffer0:18

      (laughs)

   7. KSKara Swisher0:18

      ... the Wall Street Journal released a new poll with voters giving Biden the lowest job approval of his presidency at 37%. In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Trump beats Biden 47 to 43%. Now, I, we know it is early. Um, uh, the poll also shows, uh, Trump continued to dominate the Republican field, with nearly 60% supporting him. That's not new. Uh, but Nikki Haley has numbers that are s- a stronger general election candidate, beating Biden by 17 points. Uh, so t- talk to us about this latest one 'cause there's been a slew like this. It's-

   8. DPDan Pfeiffer0:48

      Right.

   9. KSKara Swisher0:48

      ... early, again. Go ahead.

   10. DPDan Pfeiffer0:49

       It, it, it is early, and there's been a, uh, consistent set of, you know, these numbers were all kind of in the neighborhood. S- slight Trump-

   11. KSKara Swisher0:56

       Mm-hmm.

   12. DPDan Pfeiffer0:57

       ... lead, Biden under 40 approval rating, Trump advantages on the economy, immigration-

   13. KSKara Swisher1:02

       Hm.

   14. DPDan Pfeiffer1:02

       ... crime, Israel/Gaza, with Biden holding an abortion on, holding an advantage on, generally, abortion and democracy and, you know, the civility, those sorts of issues. And I think it is, like, these are the polls that a Democrat should take seriously but not literally, right? That-

   15. KSKara Swisher1:19

       Mm-hmm.

   16. DPDan Pfeiffer1:19

       ... w- there is no question that if the, that Democra- that Joe Biden is in, if the election were held today, Joe Biden would be in trouble, and you can, and would lose. But if you-

   17. KSKara Swisher1:30

       Mm-hmm.

   18. DPDan Pfeiffer1:30

       ... there's a very simple, I think, explanation, like, in pure math as to why Trump is winning and Biden is not, is that in the, like, the Wall Street Journal poll is that Trump is getting 92% of his 2020 voters, and Biden's getting 87%. And that five per, and that is consistent across all of the polls. And-

   19. KSKara Swisher1:48

       Mm-hmm.

   20. DPDan Pfeiffer1:48

       ... if, and it's, that is both, that is alarming, but that, if you're loo-, if you're the Biden team and you're looking for a silver lining, those are the easiest voters to get back, are the ones who've already cast the ballot for you. And that's-

   21. KSKara Swisher1:59

       Mm-hmm.

   22. DPDan Pfeiffer1:59

       ... gotta be what the focus is heading into next year, is beginning to rebuild that coalition. If you do that, then we are headed for a v- once again, a very, very close election, but one that is very winnable for Joe Biden.

   23. KSKara Swisher2:10

       Okay. So, we keep hearing also about Nikki Haley momentum, but realistically, is there any scenario where she gets the nomination?

   24. DPDan Pfeiffer2:18

       (clicks tongue) I would say no. I think that, if you look, N- Nikki Haley is a non-MAGA candidate in a MAGA party. Uh, there is a, a whole bunch of polling shows that f- Ron DeSantis is actually a much more likely Republican nominee than Trump. In, in-

   25. KSKara Swisher2:35

       Mm-hmm.

   26. DPDan Pfeiffer2:35

       ... an NBC poll, the Republican primary from earlier this month, more than 70% of Republican voters have Trump as their first or second choice. 54% of Republican voters have DeSantis as their first or second choice. And only 28% have Nikki Haley as their first or second choice. And so her universe of voters, she's what, you know, a factional candidate, if you will. She is consolidating this minority of the party, and it's actually, in a weird way, hurting her.

   27. KSKara Swisher3:01

       Hm.

   28. DPDan Pfeiffer3:01

       Her approval rating keeps going down the better she does in the polls because she's going from being a non-Trump to an anti-Trump candidate. So her net approval rating right now is 12 points. It's 42-30. DeSantis, for who we all very much, myself at least, make, spend a lot of time making fun of for what an awkward, weird, terrible candidate he is, he has a net approval rating of 45%, right?

   29. KSKara Swisher3:23

       Hm.

   30. DPDan Pfeiffer3:23

       And Trump's net approval rating a- above 60. And so Nikki Ha-
2. 15:00 – 19:42

   Hm. …

   1. DPDan Pfeiffer15:00

      of the demographic change, where a few years ago we thought those would automatically be De- Democratic votes at, you know, 85% Democratic, and it's much less than that now.

   2. SGScott Galloway15:09

      Hm.

   3. DPDan Pfeiffer15:10

      And the, the, one of the challenges for Biden is his mis- most disaffected group, the people who are most willing to either sit out the election or, uh, vote, uh, for a third party candidate like Cornel West or RFK Jr., are voters 18 to 29. So, if Biden was performing at 2020 levels with those younger voters, you would sort of see that, uh, more Democratic shift in the electorate based on those demographics. But that's not being maximized right now because of opinions on Biden. On Gaza, the polling on this is incredibly confusing, um, because the narrative we all get is, uh, younger Democratic voters are very angry at Joe Biden. In the CBS News poll that came out on Sunday, the only group that does, that, the group with the highest approval rating of Joe Biden on handling the Israeli Gaza, uh, the Israeli-Hamas conflict is voters 18 to 29. It's 50/50, and Joe Biden's underwater with all the other groups. They also asked people what to, uh, prioritize issues. Only 4% of voters put the Israeli-Hamas conflict-

   4. KSKara Swisher16:16

      Mm.

   5. DPDan Pfeiffer16:16

      ... as a high priority for them. And so, I think-

   6. SGScott Galloway16:18

      Really interesting.

   7. DPDan Pfeiffer16:19

      But it could have a real impact in some states, like Michigan, that have a very large, um, Arab American population, uh, and particularly Palestinians.

   8. SGScott Galloway16:28

      Mm-hmm.

   9. DPDan Pfeiffer16:28

      And so, it could be, if this were to remain, I think Kara's caveat's incredibly important, is if this still were at the top of the news a year from now or 11 months from now, then that's what the impact could be.

   10. KSKara Swisher16:40

       Yeah, if it stays the way it's been.

   11. DPDan Pfeiffer16:40

       Recent history says these things tend to fade in the American mindset when they're happening abroad, and maybe that will be the case here. I don't know. But it's very possible, if not likely.

   12. KSKara Swisher16:48

       I, I will say talking to a lot of young people, they are irritated by Biden. They, they are-

   13. DPDan Pfeiffer16:53

       Yeah.

   14. KSKara Swisher16:53

       ... for sure, and they don't think about Trump right now.

   15. SGScott Galloway16:55

       Hm.

   16. KSKara Swisher16:55

       But I think they've lived with only Netanyahu, that's why.

   17. DPDan Pfeiffer16:58

       That's right. That's exactly right.

   18. KSKara Swisher16:58

       I just feel like they don't know anyone else but Net- and so they don't like Netanyahu. But at the same time, I think once they get a taste of Uncle Crazy, I think that'll, they'll remind them of the same thing, especially around abortion. Abortion is a staying issue, it feels like.

   19. DPDan Pfeiffer17:11

       Yes, 100%.

   20. KSKara Swisher17:12

       And it's just been hard. With women especially. Even if everyone says, "Oh, now they're done with abortion," I don't think women are done with that, putting, putting protections in place. And I don't think they much like book... That's another thing I hear. It's like the book, all the, all the meddlesomeness of the Republicans, especially, uh, the religious stuff from Mike Johnson seems to stick in their craw and seems lasting. Mm-hmm. Okay, Scott, last question.

   21. SGScott Galloway17:34

       If you were to pick sort of a best or worst exogenous event for either candidate, what would it be?

   22. DPDan Pfeiffer17:41

       The best thing that could happen for Joe Biden and democracy would be Donald Trump being convicted in the January 6th trial. And the, for all the bad news, uh, although I guess the good news for Donald Trump in all this polling is in that New York Times/Siena poll, they actually asked people what would happen if Donald Trump was convicted, and 6%, only 6% of voters switched their vote away from Trump. But that 6% is enough to tip the election to Joe Biden. And I think we, we do not spend enough time talking and thinking about what, the very, very real possibility that Donald Trump will be sentenced to prison for multiple federal crimes three or four months before the election. And if that were to happen, that is a... We're not, I don't think we're fully anticipating what a big game changer that is.

   23. SGScott Galloway18:20

       Hm.

   24. KSKara Swisher18:20

       Could be, for sure. Yeah. Yeah. That, I would agree. I think people do change their mind on something. They're like, "Oh, hm, maybe not," kind of thing. I don't know. Anyway, Dan, this is fascinating. Again, you have a new podcast, um, you were obviously on Pod Save America, uh, each week, but your new podcast, Polar Coaster. (laughs) I'm laughing at that, sorry. Uh, how did it, how long did it come up, did it take to come up with that?

   25. DPDan Pfeiffer18:42

       We... Polar Coaster was the term that we would use in the Obama campaigns for the people-

   26. KSKara Swisher18:47

       Okay.

   27. DPDan Pfeiffer18:47

       ... who were checking the polls every single day.

   28. KSKara Swisher18:49

       Oh. Okay.

   29. DPDan Pfeiffer18:50

       Uh, and we say, and David Plouffe, our key manager-

   30. KSKara Swisher18:52

       Get off the fucking coaster.

Episode duration: 19:43