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What the Latest Polls Tell Us About the 2024 Race

The 2024 presidential election is just under a year away and a lot of the polls are not looking great for the Democrats. Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway talk to "Pod Save America" co-host Dan Pfeiffer about why everyone needs to calm down about polling, plus how to avoid the trap of Donald Trump's dictator on "day one" comments. #pivot #podcast #election #biden #trump

Kara SwisherhostDan PfeifferguestScott Gallowayhost
Dec 12, 202319mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:000:49

    Wall Street Journal poll: Biden approval drops and Trump leads head-to-head

    1. KS

      Dan Pfeiffer is the co-host of Crooked Media's pod Save America. He's also the host of a new podcast, Poller Coaster, ha ha-

    2. DP

      (laughs)

    3. SG

      ... which is launching this week and will feature analysis on the latest polls and voter trends. Welcome, Dan.

    4. DP

      Thanks for having me.

    5. KS

      So, since you're the expert here, let's start with some polling. Over the weekend-

    6. DP

      (laughs)

    7. KS

      ... the Wall Street Journal released a new poll with voters giving Biden the lowest job approval of his presidency at 37%. In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Trump beats Biden 47 to 43%. Now, I, we know it is early. Um, uh, the poll also shows, uh, Trump continued to dominate the Republican field, with nearly 60% supporting him. That's not new. Uh, but Nikki Haley has numbers that are s- a stronger general election candidate, beating Biden by 17 points. Uh, so t- talk to us about this latest one 'cause there's been a slew like this. It's-

    8. DP

      Right.

    9. KS

      ... early, again. Go ahead.

  2. 0:491:19

    How to read early polls: “take them seriously, not literally”

    1. DP

      It, it, it is early, and there's been a, uh, consistent set of, you know, these numbers were all kind of in the neighborhood. S- slight Trump-

    2. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DP

      ... lead, Biden under 40 approval rating, Trump advantages on the economy, immigration-

    4. KS

      Hm.

    5. DP

      ... crime, Israel/Gaza, with Biden holding an abortion on, holding an advantage on, generally, abortion and democracy and, you know, the civility, those sorts of issues. And I think it is, like, these are the polls that a Democrat should take seriously but not literally, right? That-

    6. KS

      Mm-hmm.

  3. 1:192:10

    The math behind Trump’s edge: reclaiming 2020 Biden voters

    1. DP

      ... w- there is no question that if the, that Democra- that Joe Biden is in, if the election were held today, Joe Biden would be in trouble, and you can, and would lose. But if you-

    2. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DP

      ... there's a very simple, I think, explanation, like, in pure math as to why Trump is winning and Biden is not, is that in the, like, the Wall Street Journal poll is that Trump is getting 92% of his 2020 voters, and Biden's getting 87%. And that five per, and that is consistent across all of the polls. And-

    4. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    5. DP

      ... if, and it's, that is both, that is alarming, but that, if you're loo-, if you're the Biden team and you're looking for a silver lining, those are the easiest voters to get back, are the ones who've already cast the ballot for you. And that's-

    6. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DP

      ... gotta be what the focus is heading into next year, is beginning to rebuild that coalition. If you do that, then we are headed for a v- once again, a very, very close election, but one that is very winnable for Joe Biden.

  4. 2:104:04

    Nikki Haley’s ‘electability’ vs the reality of a MAGA GOP primary

    1. KS

      Okay. So, we keep hearing also about Nikki Haley momentum, but realistically, is there any scenario where she gets the nomination?

    2. DP

      (clicks tongue) I would say no. I think that, if you look, N- Nikki Haley is a non-MAGA candidate in a MAGA party. Uh, there is a, a whole bunch of polling shows that f- Ron DeSantis is actually a much more likely Republican nominee than Trump. In, in-

    3. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    4. DP

      ... an NBC poll, the Republican primary from earlier this month, more than 70% of Republican voters have Trump as their first or second choice. 54% of Republican voters have DeSantis as their first or second choice. And only 28% have Nikki Haley as their first or second choice. And so her universe of voters, she's what, you know, a factional candidate, if you will. She is consolidating this minority of the party, and it's actually, in a weird way, hurting her.

    5. KS

      Hm.

    6. DP

      Her approval rating keeps going down the better she does in the polls because she's going from being a non-Trump to an anti-Trump candidate. So her net approval rating right now is 12 points. It's 42-30. DeSantis, for who we all very much, myself at least, make, spend a lot of time making fun of for what an awkward, weird, terrible candidate he is, he has a net approval rating of 45%, right?

    7. KS

      Hm.

    8. DP

      And Trump's net approval rating a- above 60. And so Nikki Ha-

    9. KS

      So he's the other Trump. He's the-

    10. DP

      He, he's the other Trump.

    11. KS

      ... he's the one in the-

    12. DP

      Right.

    13. KS

      Right.

    14. DP

      And if Donald Trump were to go to prison tomorrow, dr- drop out of the race, defect to Russia, whatever else, Ron DeSantis would be the overwhelming favorite to defeat Nikki Haley in a primary.

    15. KS

      In a primary situation.

    16. DP

      Yes.

    17. KS

      Even though the general, it's a real problem for-

    18. DP

      Yes.

    19. KS

      ... Trump right now.

    20. DP

      Yeah, Nikki Haley is, at least as we can tell right now, and she's an u- she's a relatively generic non-Trump Republican in the eyes of voters. Uh-

    21. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    22. DP

      ... but as of right now, she is obviously, I think, very clearly the most electable Republican who ha-, who is-

    23. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    24. DP

      ... in the mix.

    25. KS

      Is in the mix. C- but Trump carries those fans, the fans-

    26. DP

      Yes.

    27. KS

      ... that he has-

    28. DP

      Yes. Yeah.

  5. 4:045:40

    Is the Biden team underreacting? Signs they’re taking the threat seriously

    1. KS

      ... which DeSantis doesn't have. Um, let me ask you one more question, then Scott will have a bunch of questions, I'm sure, is, is, do Biden i- uh, they seem unworried in the Biden administration. I've talked to a lot of people, and I, should they be more worried? They sort of have this, you know, grandpa's gonna win again, g- good ol' grandpa. Once you get a taste of crazy uncle, uh, uh, you know, great uncle Trump, everyone'll go, "Oh, that guy." Um, what, how do you, it seems like that's a little sleepy to do, and I hate to use the term sleepy around Joe Biden, but-

    2. DP

      (laughs)

    3. KS

      ... you know, I think it's just, it- it's like, should they be more, you know, but the last time, everyone counted him out, and there he was. Okay, let's just have grandpa again kinda thing. He's safe.

    4. DP

      I think, my guess is that in reality, the Biden folks are less worried than the general, uh, Democratic Party, which is in a state of sort of abject panic at this point.

    5. KS

      As they always are.

    6. DP

      As they always are. That is not unusual. Um, the term bedwetter was invented for a reason to describe my party. Um-

    7. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    8. DP

      ... but I think they're more, they are more worried or at least more, um, (clicks tongue) aggressively trying to shape the race in some of these public comments made 'cause they spent $25 million in ads in the off year. And that's not something you do if you think this race is gonna naturally revert to the mean, where it'll be Joe Biden with a four or five-point national poll lead. So, I think that they are more worried than we think they are, but I understand why pan- there's no point in panicking, right? You have to go about doing your work. I think they see the path to getting there. But some of the things that they have tried thus far have not moved the needle, and I think that is probably worrisome.

  6. 5:406:46

    What polls are good for now: issue temperature checks and campaign guidance

    1. SG

      (clicks tongue) Uh, Dan, good to see you. Um, so m- my sense of polls at this point aren't very good proxies for what will actually happen in terms of who wins and who loses.

    2. DP

      Yeah.

    3. SG

      But it can be really helpful in terms of identifying key issues and messaging. I- if you were advising the candidates, wh- what messages do you think are bubbling up that weren't there four years ago that they wanna focus on? And then I'd be curious, does, for you to do the same analysis...... that you did on the Republicans on the Democratic side. Like, is there another, is it a- is that also a foregone conclusion that Biden's the nominee?

    4. DP

      Sure. You're exactly right, that the pr- polls this far out have very little predictive value of what's gonna happen, but they are essential for understanding, it's taking the temperature of where we are right now. And so, you know, put us at, you know, we are to, we talk all about polls, media polls, the ones on by The Wall Street Journal and the NBC, but the campaigns are doing all these polls at the same time. And every, from everything I hear, Democrat, Democratic polls are seeing the exact same trends that we're seeing in the public poll, in the public polls. So, this is-

    5. SG

      Mm-hmm.

  7. 6:468:44

    Building contrast: middle-class alignment and making Trump salient again

    1. DP

      Everyone has the same analysis of where we are. And I think it's a couple of things that, uh, would be the advice I would give Democrats, and, and Biden in particular here, is one, and you can see them doing this already, is you have to make this more of a choice, right? In all of these polls, people are much more focused on Joe Biden than Donald Trump. And for a lot of voters, they haven't really thought about Trump at all since 2021, right? You see this in, in the NB- New York Times/Siena poll, the percent of voters who are concerned about Donald Trump's temperament has gone down since 2020. The percent of voters who think Donald Trump is unfit mentally for office has gone down since 2020. And so, you have to, we have to focus the mind on the fact that Donald Trump is running and he is going to be the nominee and he gives, has a very good chance of being president going forward. The second thing is on the economy. We have to stop, look, we're, Democrats are in this debate of, "Well, people are unhappy, but the economy's great." And it doesn't really matter what the macroeconomic numbers say. It matters how people actually feel. And I think this is, you know, I know you guys have talked about this, this is a very, very strange economy for a lot of people and how they experience it. And so, we have to shift jobs, the jobs numbers are a low priority for Americans right now. Their issue is not whether or not they're gonna have a job. It is what the costs of goods are. It's not what the rate of inflation is. It's the price of things. And I think Democrats need to shift the framework more to, away from, "Here's what we've accomplished. Here's what all the progress we've made," and focus really hard, use the what they've done as proof points for how they can lower costs and raise wages going forward, and do that in a very contrastive way with Trump. In all of these polls, a place where Biden has real strength is that voters think that Donald Trump and the Republicans are more fr- are less on the side of the middle class and more friendly towards the wealthy and corporations than Democrats. And you want to draw that contrast. So, there has to be a choice not a referendum.

    2. KS

      Which is a shift.

    3. DP

      It is a shift, that's right.

  8. 8:4410:38

    Responding to Trump’s “dictator on day one” comments without falling into traps

    1. KS

      There's also, there, there's also a lot of, uh, prognosticating about what a potential S- Trump second term would be, which is sort of the fear method of doing that.

    2. DP

      Right.

    3. KS

      Trump, uh, had the town hall with Sean Hannity last week where he didn't exactly say no to abusing power in a second term, noting he would be a dictator only on day one, which you can do-

    4. DP

      No.

    5. KS

      ... a lot in a day.

    6. DP

      (laughs)

    7. KS

      Um, you wrote a-about this in your newsletter saying many of the responses to Trump's comments are playing right into his trap. Uh, obviously he's playing games. I mean, you can tell it by his smirkiness. Um, how should we be talking about it? I mean, it's ir- it's very, it's terrifying and also what an asshole, you know? You sort of get-

    8. DP

      Yeah.

    9. KS

      ... that same feel off of Elon Musk or, or any of these people, like, they're just trying to fuck with you, essentially.

    10. DP

      Yeah, but he very clearly was sort of smirking and Sean Hannity was completely flummoxed at why Donald Trump would not take his repeated, uh-

    11. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    12. DP

      ... offers of a lifeline in that moment. But there is the, we have focus, and I think rightfully on D- Donald Trump saying, "On day one," but what keeps getting left out is what he said right after that, which he's gonna a- he basically said, "I am gonna abuse power to secure the border," and quote, "drill, drill, drill." Right? So, what he-

    13. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    14. DP

      ... is trying to do is to say, "I am gonna be an authoritarian, but I'm gonna be an authoritarian for you. Here's how I'm gonna help your life," right? These, we know that these things people care a lot about, cost of energy and border is at the top of, it's right below inflation on a lot of the polls in terms of concerns for voters. What Democrats should do is not, uh, we, is we should avoid some traps. First is we shouldn't run around talking about how strong Donald Trump is because strength is part of his appeal. We have to talk about his nee- the fact that he is weak, right? That he had, Donald Trump has never stood up to anyone in his life. He bows down to CEOs, he bows down to dictators, he's running for president not to help you, but because he's afraid to face the consequences for his actions in office last time. Make it about his weakness, right? Donald Trump want, that is a trap to make us talk about how strong and fearful he is.

    15. KS

      Mm-hmm.

  9. 10:3811:57

    Make authoritarianism personal: abortion, labor, environment, and daily life impacts

    1. DP

      That, that's one. Two, we have to talk, we have to empower voters to be the ones who can stop Donald Trump. It's not that it is inevitable that he's gonna take over the Robert Kagan column of his, is dictatorship inevitable? We have the power to stop him. Next, and I think this is really important, is we have to talk about how what Donald Trump would do, how him being a dictator or seizing power or abusing power would affect you, right? And I think that one great way to do that is talk about abortion, right? The Heritage Foundation and others have talked about how even if Donald Trump is unable to pass a federal abortion ban, they can weaponize the federal government to put in fact a de facto federal abortion ban, right? That they're going to, and you can do that across the board on issues about pollution and protecting clean air and clean water, about helping workers, right? How Donald Trump will use the federal government to make it harder for, you know, the workers who, who were on strike at UAW or at Starbucks and all of those things. We have to make it matter to people, because if we don't and we just say, "Donald Trump's gonna destroy democracy," we are sort of by default saying that we are the ones who are gonna defend this political system that most voters say is corrupt and doesn't work for them. And so-

    2. KS

      Right.

    3. DP

      ... it has to be very, very specific.

    4. KS

      Specific.

    5. DP

      Because if not, we're just having this esoteric argument that means nothing to most voters. And-

    6. KS

      To most voters.

    7. DP

      And in some ways actually undergirds some of Trump's appeal that helped propel him in 2016.

    8. KS

      He's a strong man. Uh, Scott?

    9. DP

      Yeah.

  10. 11:5713:48

    Why ‘bad Biden polls’ can coexist with Democrats winning elections

    1. SG

      So, the polls look really ugly for Biden.

    2. DP

      (laughs)

    3. SG

      So, we-

    4. DP

      Yes, they do.

    5. SG

      ... we immediately think, I mean, they're kind of, they're kind of shocking. And so, you immediately think, "Oh wow, things are going well for us," if you're a progressive. But anytime there's an election, whether it's the legislature in, in I think it was Virginia or the, the abortion bill in Ohio, it appears that blue is winning everywhere. The, the, uh...What's wrong here? Uh, uh, every time I see an actual election where people don't respond to a telephone or a phone survey, they actually go in and poll, pull a handle or, or check a box, it feels like we're doing really well.

    6. DP

      This is a quite... People have been really trying hard, very hard to square this circle, right? The polls look bad, but Democrats keep winning. And both things can be true at the same time because these surveys we're looking at are surveys of the overall presidential election electorate.

    7. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    8. DP

      Which is, in most states, 30 to 40% bigger than the people who vote in a midterm or even in a-

    9. SG

      Yeah.

    10. DP

      ... especially in a special election.

    11. SG

      Right.

    12. DP

      And Donald Trump does best right now with people who don't vote in midterms. He's doing best in these polls with people who didn't even vote in 2020. That's a huge part of his advantage in The New York Times/Siena poll, is he's beating Biden by 15 points by people who did not vote in 2020. So, these are two separate universes, and as of right now, the Jo- the presidential election universe is less Democratic-friendly than the, um, than the midterm universe. And th- this is the, the parties have switched in this regard as the Democrats have become more a party of college-educated suburban voters. When I worked for President Obama, Republicans were a much more reliable midterm party, which is why Republicans could crush in the 2010 midterms and then lose pretty handily in 2012 when Obama was on the ballot. And the reverse is true now.

    13. SG

      Hm.

    14. KS

      Interesting.

  11. 13:4815:40

    Demographic change and soft youth support: gains with some minority men, risks with 18–29s

    1. SG

      Have you... Uh, I just have a c- I have a couple follow-up questions. One, since 2016 when Trump won, uh, my guess is 10 or 20 million American voters have died and there's 10 or 20 million newer voters.

    2. DP

      (laughs)

    3. SG

      How has that... So, you've l- you've lost 70 and 80-somethings, and you've gained 18 to 26-year-old somethings. How has that changed the electorate? And I would just be curious if you have thought about how the conflict in the Middle East is, uh, likely playing out, and does it advantage Trump or Biden?

    4. KS

      And let me put that, put a caveat-

    5. SG

      Okay.

    6. KS

      ... it's a year from now.

    7. SG

      Right.

    8. KS

      There will be a whole different topic a year from now. We won't be talking about this.

    9. SG

      Fair enough.

    10. DP

      Right. Yeah. Um, it is... The 2020... 2020 was a better... Joe, you know, Joe Biden won the popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did in 2020 for a number of reasons, but one of... I'm sorry. Joe Biden did better in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in the popular vote for many reasons, but one of them is the electorate was becoming slightly more demographically friendly to Democrats. Now, the challenge right now for Democrats is Donald Trump has made gains. It is a question about how much those gains are with younger Latino and Black men. So, that accounts for some of the demographic change, where a few years ago we thought those would automatically be De- Democratic votes at, you know, 85% Democratic, and it's much less than that now.

    11. SG

      Hm.

    12. DP

      And the, the, one of the challenges for Biden is his mis- most disaffected group, the people who are most willing to either sit out the election or, uh, vote, uh, for a third party candidate like Cornel West or RFK Jr., are voters 18 to 29. So, if Biden was performing at 2020 levels with those younger voters, you would sort of see that, uh, more Democratic shift in the electorate based on those demographics. But that's not being maximized right now because of opinions on Biden. On Gaza,

  12. 15:4017:34

    Israel/Gaza polling: noisy signals, low national priority, but key state risk (Michigan)

    1. DP

      the polling on this is incredibly confusing, um, because the narrative we all get is, uh, younger Democratic voters are very angry at Joe Biden. In the CBS News poll that came out on Sunday, the only group that does, that, the group with the highest approval rating of Joe Biden on handling the Israeli Gaza, uh, the Israeli-Hamas conflict is voters 18 to 29. It's 50/50, and Joe Biden's underwater with all the other groups. They also asked people what to, uh, prioritize issues. Only 4% of voters put the Israeli-Hamas conflict-

    2. KS

      Mm.

    3. DP

      ... as a high priority for them. And so, I think-

    4. SG

      Really interesting.

    5. DP

      But it could have a real impact in some states, like Michigan, that have a very large, um, Arab American population, uh, and particularly Palestinians.

    6. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DP

      And so, it could be, if this were to remain, I think Kara's caveat's incredibly important, is if this still were at the top of the news a year from now or 11 months from now, then that's what the impact could be.

    8. KS

      Yeah, if it stays the way it's been.

    9. DP

      Recent history says these things tend to fade in the American mindset when they're happening abroad, and maybe that will be the case here. I don't know. But it's very possible, if not likely.

    10. KS

      I, I will say talking to a lot of young people, they are irritated by Biden. They, they are-

    11. DP

      Yeah.

    12. KS

      ... for sure, and they don't think about Trump right now.

    13. SG

      Hm.

    14. KS

      But I think they've lived with only Netanyahu, that's why.

    15. DP

      That's right. That's exactly right.

    16. KS

      I just feel like they don't know anyone else but Net- and so they don't like Netanyahu. But at the same time, I think once they get a taste of Uncle Crazy, I think that'll, they'll remind them of the same thing, especially around abortion. Abortion is a staying issue, it feels like.

    17. DP

      Yes, 100%.

    18. KS

      And it's just been hard. With women especially. Even if everyone says, "Oh, now they're done with abortion," I don't think women are done with that, putting, putting protections in place. And I don't think they much like book... That's another thing I hear. It's like the book, all the, all the meddlesomeness of the Republicans, especially, uh, the religious stuff from Mike Johnson seems to stick in their craw and seems lasting. Mm-hmm. Okay, Scott, last question.

  13. 17:3418:20

    Best/worst ‘October surprises’: Trump conviction as a potential game changer

    1. SG

      If you were to pick sort of a best or worst exogenous event for either candidate, what would it be?

    2. DP

      The best thing that could happen for Joe Biden and democracy would be Donald Trump being convicted in the January 6th trial. And the, for all the bad news, uh, although I guess the good news for Donald Trump in all this polling is in that New York Times/Siena poll, they actually asked people what would happen if Donald Trump was convicted, and 6%, only 6% of voters switched their vote away from Trump. But that 6% is enough to tip the election to Joe Biden. And I think we, we do not spend enough time talking and thinking about what, the very, very real possibility that Donald Trump will be sentenced to prison for multiple federal crimes three or four months before the election. And if that were to happen, that is a... We're not, I don't think we're fully anticipating what a big game changer that is.

    3. SG

      Hm.

  14. 18:2019:42

    Wrap-up: ‘Poller Coaster’ origin story and the case for (or against) tracking polls

    1. KS

      Could be, for sure. Yeah. Yeah. That, I would agree. I think people do change their mind on something. They're like, "Oh, hm, maybe not," kind of thing. I don't know. Anyway, Dan, this is fascinating. Again, you have a new podcast, um, you were obviously on Pod Save America, uh, each week, but your new podcast, Polar Coaster. (laughs) I'm laughing at that, sorry. Uh, how did it, how long did it come up, did it take to come up with that?

    2. DP

      We... Polar Coaster was the term that we would use in the Obama campaigns for the people-

    3. KS

      Okay.

    4. DP

      ... who were checking the polls every single day.

    5. KS

      Oh. Okay.

    6. DP

      Uh, and we say, and David Plouffe, our key manager-

    7. KS

      Get off the fucking coaster.

    8. DP

      Get off, get off the fucking polar coaster.

    9. KS

      Polar coaster.

    10. DP

      And-

    11. KS

      Yeah. Yeah.

    12. DP

      We've used that a little bit on Pod Save America over the years.

    13. KS

      Yeah.

    14. DP

      And my goal here with this podcast is to help people understand what the polls mean and think about-

    15. KS

      I keep completely ignoring polls. That's why this is, this is... I'd rather be in Polar Coaster.

    16. DP

      That is a, it... There, there are, there are gonna be people in this world who want to ignore the polls-

    17. KS

      I'm used to it.

    18. DP

      And that's v- that's very healthy. But if you can't ignore the polls and you're gonna live and die with them-

    19. KS

      Yeah.

    20. DP

      ... and you want to understand what they really mean-

    21. KS

      Listen to Polar Coaster.

    22. DP

      This is the podcast for you.

    23. KS

      Listen to Polar Coaster.

    24. DP

      You go to crooked.com/franks-

    25. SG

      I don't buy it, Dan.

    26. DP

      You can get it.

    27. KS

      (laughs)

    28. SG

      I don't buy it. Tell me you do edibles without telling me you do edibles. Don't come out with that name under the influence.

    29. DP

      (laughs)

    30. KS

      Well, uh, anyway, it kicks off. Polar Coaster kicks off on December 14th here at, thank you, thank yous.

Episode duration: 19:43

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