Tim FerrissBill Gurley — The AI Era, 10 Days in China, & Life Lessons from Bob Dylan, Jerry Seinfeld,, and More
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
110 min read · 21,579 words- 0:00 – 0:35
Preview
- BGBill Gurley
I started listening to Greenlights. There's a story in it from when he was, like, twenty. He'd gotten into the University of Texas. He was pre-law. He met some people at Texas that had convinced him that he should switch to film school, and he had immense anxiety about sharing this with his father. But he finally tells his dad, and his dad utters this very simple phrase: "Well, don't half-ass it."
- TFTim Ferriss
[chuckles]
- BGBill Gurley
And he said in that single moment, he gave him blessing, consent, approval, validation, privilege, honor, freedom, and responsibility. Called it rocket fuel.
- 0:35 – 2:56
The book that gave Jerry Seinfeld permission to pursue comedy and inspired Runnin’ Down a Dream.
- TFTim Ferriss
All right. Bill, great to see you, man.
- BGBill Gurley
Good to see you.
- TFTim Ferriss
And I thought we would start with a prop that you brought. So there's a very thick book with a tattered cover, and I think that is as good a lead-in as anything. What are you holding, honestly?
- BGBill Gurley
I'm holding a book called The Last Laugh by Phil Berger. The reason it's tattered is I think it may be out of print. Like, I bought it used, you know, 'cause I wanted to see it and have it.
- TFTim Ferriss
What's the subtitle?
- BGBill Gurley
The Last Laugh: The World of Stand-Up Comics.
- TFTim Ferriss
Why do you have this book? Are you, are you thinking of making a career switch?
- BGBill Gurley
No, no. [both laughing] No, no, no. So as part of researching my new book, Runnin' Down a Dream, my co-writer and I, we spent six years just diving through stories. 'Cause I had done this speech at the University of Texas, and we wanted to en-enhance it, you know, when we went to the printed form. And one of the stories we came across was Jerry Seinfeld and his decision, you know, to pursue a career as a comedian. And he was in New York. He wasn't sure what he wanted to do with his life. He had an inkling, an inkling that he might wanna be a stand-up comic, but he didn't know what that meant. He didn't know if it was a real career. He didn't know that you could make money. And he read this book, and it profiles, I don't know, looks like fifteen different... You know, it's got Woody Allen, Bill Cosby, George Carlin, Lily Tomlin, Robert Klein. It profiled them in a way that was very disinhibiting to him. It gave him permission to go do this career that's not a typical career, right? It like, when you go to college, they don't list stand-up comedian as something that you can go do.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs] You know, the guidance counselor-
- BGBill Gurley
No. [laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
-is not generally putting that on the multiple choice.
- BGBill Gurley
Exa-exactly, but, but this book served as something that granted him permission to go do that.
- TFTim Ferriss
And we're gonna come back to that. I will, [chuckles] I will say that I bookmarked this for future conversations, and of course we're chatting outside of these recordings. But because two years ago, almost exactly when we did our first episode, you mentioned that you were working on a book idea based on the belief that it's easier than ever to rise up because access to mentors and information is unprecedented. So we'll come back to that, of course, and discuss it and the frameworks and the approaches and the stories at some
- 2:56 – 5:32
AI bubble or not?
- TFTim Ferriss
length. But I wanted to start with some topical subject matter. AI bubble or not? [laughs] And if so, what does that mean?
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, so I think this is super interesting. My, my partner Peter reminded me of a book that we had seen a, a while ago by Carlota Perez. It has this very benign title, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. It was written in, like, two thousand and two. And what Perez kinda simplifies and notices, which I just find perfect for trying to understand whether there's a bubble or not, is that every time there's been a technology wave that leads to wealth creation, especially fast wealth creation, that will inherently invite speculators, carpetbaggers, interlopers that wanna come take advantage of it. Think of the gold rush-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... you know? And so people wanna make it a debate. Do you believe in AI, or is it a bubble? And if you say you think it's a bubble, they say, "Oh, you don't believe in AI." Like this gotcha kinda thing. And if you study Perez, and I, I think this is absolutely correct, if the wave is real, then you're gonna have bubble-like behavior. Like, they come together as a pair precisely because any time there's very quick wealth creation, you're gonna get a lot of people that wanna come try and take advantage of that or participate in it. So you get a flood of those types of people coming at it. And so it's odd. There's a real technology wave that's, that's fundamentally changing the world, and there's also massive speculation [laughs] simultaneous.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, they come as a pair. I recall not too long ago, maybe two weeks ago, saw a short interview with your friend Jeff Bezos, and he distinguished between financial bubbles and industrial bubbles and cited, and I'm paraphrasing here, but two thousand and eight as an example of a bad bubble, right, financial bubble, versus let's just say the early two thousands, like ninety-nine, ninety-eight, ninety-nine, two thousand, where a lot of very important technology was created that then was durable after the fact and created new generations of entrepreneurs and a lot of economic growth. And he believes that AI would fall into the industrial bubble category of things. But I suppose given that the dancing pair you described come together,
- 5:32 – 11:08
Circular deals and SPV chaos.
- TFTim Ferriss
how would you think about investing in private companies, modern venture capital at this point in time, and just I suppose as it's changed since you were most active?
- BGBill Gurley
A quick comment on that industrial bubble thing. You know, one thing that is surprising to me is that even though I fundamentally believe this is an important real technology wave, the big players, even the Mag seven, have all decided to do things from a deal perspective. You've read about these circular deals and whatnot.
- TFTim Ferriss
Could you explain what you mean by that?
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of talk out there, but it all started when Microsoft invested in OpenAI. OpenAI agreed to buy services from Microsoft-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yep
- BGBill Gurley
... which is called a circular deal-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... because you're giving them money they wouldn't have otherwise.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And when Dario was on stage at DealBook last week, he said, "Oh, I can explain. This is not that hard. Amazon wanted us to spend money we didn't have, so they gave us even more money." [laughs] And I'm like, "Well, that's precisely why this is a questionable behavior." But it's gotten bigger, you know? Nvidia's handing out money, and then Nvidia gave CoreWeave money, but then also agreed to buy any services they have left over. This stuff's not ideal.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Like if you were to say, "What's crisp, clean accounting?" You know, you wouldn't do these kind of things. And some of them say, "Well, it's not material," in which I would say, "Well, then why are you doing it?" I've asked other people to try and understand how even big, sophisticated companies might get speculative-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... using a word from the previous discussion. And I hear things like, well, you know, loss aversion tends to go down when you're winning. Like if you're on a hot streak in a casino, you take more risk, things like that. But it is surprising to me. When it comes to retail investors, I mean, I would be particularly concerned for them at this stage in the AI game because there is a plethora of SPV vehicles. You've heard that phrase, I'm sure.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
SPV. This is where someone has an in on an investment and they do a one-off VC fund, if you will. A-
- TFTim Ferriss
Special purpose vehicle.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, it's a single entity just for that one deal.
- TFTim Ferriss
We have a chance to invest in X. We have an allocation of however much money, and then they can allow sort of Jane Doe and John Doe potentially-
- BGBill Gurley
And they take a rake on it.
- TFTim Ferriss
Exactly.
- BGBill Gurley
And there's people promoting SPVs in situations where they don't even actually have the underlying stock, or maybe they hope to get it. I- it's the Wild, Wild West.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And most of the people on that edge, uh, I would put in the category of interloper, carpetbagger. These are people that have come to this thing. And I just think you gotta be quite careful.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
The, the investments that were made that have already had 100X plus returns were made a while ago-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... you know, before this thing started.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And that's not to say there won't be an incremental AI investment that makes money. I think there will. But your odds right now of, of that being the case are really, really low.
- 11:08 – 13:42
Angel investing in the AI era.
- TFTim Ferriss
So if you were... This may be a difficult question, but if you were angel investing right now, how would you be thinking about your approach?
- BGBill Gurley
I'll tell you a funny story. [laughs] When I decided to hang up my gloves, if you will, and stop making institutional venture capital investments, I had a whole bunch of ideas about what I wanted to do next, and one of them was, oh, I'll do a bunch of angel investing.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
You know, Bezos did it on the side. You know, this would be fantastic.
- TFTim Ferriss
He did pretty well with his angel investing. [laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
I was explaining this to a, I won't say who it is, but a, a Silicon Valley CEO, very successful, and he said, "What are you gonna do now?" I said, "I was thinking of doing angel investing." He goes, "Why would you do that?" [both laughing] He said, "I got fifty of these things. People don't return my calls." He goes, "I wish I'd never done it." [both laughing] So there is a unglamorous side to it as much as there is a glamorous side, and you've participated in this world before. What would I say? I think if I were doing angel investments, I'd try and find an intersection of people that are super curious and are playing with all these AI tools, but bring a Perspective from a particular industry that gives them an advantage in that area, where they could simultaneously be maybe the smartest user of AI in their genre, in their vertical.
- TFTim Ferriss
So despite the, or maybe because of, because we're, we talked about the pair, [chuckles] the AI bubble, you would still be looking at AI intersected opportunities if you were angel investing?
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah. There's a weird reality out there right now, and if this could end if ever a bubble is popped or whatever, but the institutional investors have zero interest in non-AI ideals.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Zero. It's more black and white than I could be successful and convey-
- TFTim Ferriss
And for people who do not know the term, define the institutional investor
- BGBill Gurley
... people who are paid both a, a salary and a piece of the return to be active investors of other people's money, using other people's money. But the reason that kind of matters is if you angel fund a deal and have any hope of it raising money in the future, if it's not AI related, right now-
- TFTim Ferriss
Could die of neglect
- BGBill Gurley
... there is no interest.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
I can't state clearly enough how there's zero int- and, and I could, I could simultaneously make fun of that reality, but I could also justify that reality, but it is the reality
- 13:42 – 17:07
Why you should be the most AI-enabled version of yourself, regardless of field.
- BGBill Gurley
right now. And by the way, while I mention that, I feel obligated for your audience, like, I don't care what field you're in, you should be playing with this stuff.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, it has the potential to impact your role in your career, and the best way to protect against any risk of your career being obfuscated or eliminated from AI is to be the most AI-enabled version of yourself you can possibly be.
- TFTim Ferriss
How would you think about, maybe you can give a hypothetical example, of looking for someone who has very, very sophisticated domain expertise and experience, who's now intersecting with AI and has a unique, because of the combination, perspective on things to invest in as an angel investor, and separate that from something that's just going to be consumed by the fundamental, the kind of fundamental models in these larger companies?
- BGBill Gurley
From a career perspective, or?
- TFTim Ferriss
From an angel investment perspective-
- BGBill Gurley
Ah
- TFTim Ferriss
... how would you pick folks you don't think are just going to end up working on something that gets replicated in short order by the bigger companies?
- BGBill Gurley
The key is just to stay pretty far away from the edge of whatever... I mean, you can go online and see interviews with the people in Anthropic or OpenAI and what they're working on. Like, if it's the next thing they're gonna do-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... I don't think you're gonna be protected. But as I think about, you know, founders and angel investors, you're talking about a pretty broad array of things. At this point, as I mentioned earlier, you're not gonna back the next big model company. Besides, if, if you were, you'd need a billion dollar [laughs] angel investment to go make that happen. Like, it's just really, the game's changed. There's so much money involved. I think you're gonna wanna be off the beaten path anyway. When I think about these deeper verticals, I don't think it will make sense for OpenAI to go crush every little vertical.
- TFTim Ferriss
Waste management.
- BGBill Gurley
And even if the model's capable of understanding that subject matter, there are workflows, there are data sets that are local to your customer-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm
- BGBill Gurley
... and that has, stuff has to be stitched together.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
So I think having an understanding of a particular industry and, and one that's not gonna be on the next thing to do list at OpenAI, it would probably be your best bet.
- TFTim Ferriss
Got it. So is it fair to say, if I'm understanding you correctly, that effectively looking for something that would not be a high priority for one of these larger companies and also a proprietary data set of some type?
- BGBill Gurley
Proprietary data sets, the more kind of workflows that exist are, are better because you can build software around those things.
- TFTim Ferriss
What is a workflow?
- BGBill Gurley
The thing that popped in my head, I'm on the board of Zillow. You know, Zillow's been investing for the past five years in tools that help the realtor do their day-to-day job.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
They have a tool called ShowingTime that helps you book in-person tours at houses, as an example. But there's putting the mortgage together, getting the sign offs on.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, there's just all these tasks that have to be happened that can be automated.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Tasks that can be automated, that can be integrated with AI, the more of that stuff you can build into a system, the better off you're gonna be protecting yourself from a model that just answers questions-
- TFTim Ferriss
Right
- BGBill Gurley
... which is why, which is why I
- 17:07 – 18:59
China deep dive: Ten days, six cities, high-speed trains, and a Xiaomi SU7 factory tour.
- BGBill Gurley
brought it up.
- TFTim Ferriss
Let's move on to big topic, big country, China. [laughs] You spent ten days there over the past summer. What was your experience? What did you see? What made an impression? What did you do?
- BGBill Gurley
I'd been about six times before, so this is, like, my seventh trip. One thing that was different, my daughter is an Asian studies major, as you were.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. [laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
And she spent the summer in Hong Kong. So we picked her up, and then we toured six cities in ten days. And my objective with this trip, i- in the past trips, it was mostly just to meet with entrepreneurs and founders and mutual sharing of information, that kind of thing. This time I was more interested in just kind of being eyes wide open and learning. And so we took two of the high-speed trains-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... you know, just as an experience set. I got a tour of the Xiaomi factory with their new car, the SU7, and was trying to get a feel for what's kind of most recent there. And we, you know, went to Shenzhen, overnight city, which has gone from, I think, less than a hundred thousand people in nineteen eighty to twenty million people-
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
... just to see the scale and scope of the whole thing. There's a lot of Rhetoric in the US about what is or isn't happening in China. And I just wanted to have a better feel for it. And, and we're making policy decisions that are gonna impact, you know, the global footprint, and God forbid, you know, we end up in a World War III kind of situation. So anyway, I just wanted a better understanding. I was aided by the fact that Dan Wang shared his book, Breakneck, with me right before I left, and I read it while I was there, which was interesting. And then it came out, and of course, it ended up on the bestseller
- 18:59 – 22:00
Communism misconceptions.
- BGBill Gurley
list. But I think China's misperceived in a lot of ways.
- TFTim Ferriss
What are some of those misperceptions?
- BGBill Gurley
The biggest one is that people who have a rudimentary understanding of what is happening there use this word communism to infer a lot of other things. And one of the things that's inferred by communism is top-down, state-run system. And they think, they think of Russia, and they assume, well, that'll always lead to bad capital allocation, no innovation, 'cause they have this picture of, in their mind of these brick buildings, like with snow all around them and not much happening.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And the reality there is just far, far different from that. I think Dan Wang did a great job of explaining how the country puts out this five-year plan within the provinces, which are-- they're a lot bigger than a US state, but they're the equivalent, like it's how the country's segmented. They compete with each other. And the effective mayor of the province, if he, if he does well, has a chance to move up in the system, which is not a reality in the US system. But what that leads to is just a massive amount of competition.
- TFTim Ferriss
What are the metrics by which they're being judged? Do you have any idea on a province level? Is it some equivalent of GDP? It's not the right term, but...
- BGBill Gurley
I'm guessing probably.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
Like we could go talk to AI and-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. [laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
... get a better answer than I have right now.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
But yeah, I would think that's part of it, prosperity, employment-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... th-those kind of things. By the way, this provincial competition has also led to overbuild of buildings. Like it's not always positive.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
You know, bridges that aren't used.
- TFTim Ferriss
Ghost cities.
- BGBill Gurley
Ghost cities, yes. But you end up with hyper competition. So the-- I think the thing that a lot of people in Silicon Valley love about capitalism is this notion of the invisible hand and competition that leads to innovation and best practice, and the winners rise up, and they're better for it. That is happening there. And if you read about the solar industry or the EV industry or now the, the robotics industry, they have hundreds of different companies competing in these fields, and it's brutal competition. And as a result of that, they're ending up with very innovative companies, which once again, I think people wouldn't prescribe to being possible in a communist, you know, world, and remarkable execution from a industrial standpoint. So the price points of the products, uh, that, that will be sold around the globe are well below anything that could be done in the US.
- 22:00 – 25:38
Lei Jun: The Steve Jobs of China.
- TFTim Ferriss
How do you go about getting a tour of a Xiaomi factory? I would think that they would be very closed about that. What's in it for them, and how do they-
- BGBill Gurley
I don't know if you saw this going around the internet yesterday, but they shipped a car to this YouTuber.
- TFTim Ferriss
Oh, yeah, I saw it. Absolutely.
- BGBill Gurley
Which is brilliant. And he did like a fifteen-- That's the SU7. That's the factory I went to. As I mentioned, I'd been there before. So I met Lei Jun, who's the founder of Xiaomi in two thousand and five-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... when he was chairman of Joyo, which was a e-commerce company that Amazon bought. So he's been around a while.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
He has evolved into, the best thing I could say is like he's the Steve Jobs of China right now.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
When he quit doing Joyo and he had this other company as well, he declared ten years ago he was gonna build a smartphone just out of the blue, "I'm gonna build a smartphone." He didn't have any smartphone experience, but Xiaomi is now the third largest manufacturer of handsets in the globe.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And about four or five years ago, at about the exact same time Apple hinted they were interested in building a car, he said, "I'm gonna build a car."
- TFTim Ferriss
Well, not only did he say, "I'm gonna build a car," but that was a response to sanctions, right? It was an emergency as he-- I, I listened to one of-- Well, I listened to the translation of even though my Chinese is decent, but it's not as good as it once was. His, I think it was twenty twenty-four-
- BGBill Gurley
That's it
- TFTim Ferriss
... company-wide address where he talked about the sanctions coming in saying, "What if we couldn't make phones? What would we do?"
- BGBill Gurley
That talk is unbelievable, and it, it's translated on YouTube.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And I would encourage people to watch from about minute thirty to about an hour fifteen, which is where he talks about his process for designing the car. I don't know if you saw that part.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, I did.
- BGBill Gurley
But it's crazy. He says he put a note on any car in his parking lot that he had never drove, and he would ask each employee to give him three positives, three negatives, and loan him the car. Said he drove two hundred of his employees' cars. When you hear that kind of stuff, you're like, "Wow, I wonder if anyone at Apple did that." I mean, it's just such a kind of bottom-up, just ground truth way to start the process. But even still, even if you did that, like a bunch of people could do that How do you have the wherewithal to build a factory? He'd never built a factory before. I've been in other car factories here in the US, it was phenomenal. A- anyway, back to your question why I could get in, is I, I knew Lei Jun from way back.
- TFTim Ferriss
What does the process look like? Are there a bunch of clearances and you have to get the okay from the provincial-
- BGBill Gurley
I don't think we went through the whole factory, but no, I mean, they're a public company.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
I think they're interested in-
- TFTim Ferriss
The exposure
- BGBill Gurley
... being well understood.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
Which I think hints at why they enabled this. I think they had to send a car to this guy, the YouTuber.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
And by the way, d- the president of Ford went over there about six months before I did, went on the same tour, so they let him go there. [laughs] And he had an SU7 shipped to, to Michigan, and he drove it for several weeks, and he's talked about how incredible it is.
- 25:38 – 28:40
Jack Ma, ByteDance’s invisible CEO, and the risks of prominence in China.
- TFTim Ferriss
the conversation. So this is a question from X, the artist formerly known as Twitter.
- BGBill Gurley
[laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
One of many questions, but I'll ask, what are, what are your top handful of critiques, say, of the Chinese tech ecosystem or CCP after going on a tour there? What would you say they're not doing well, or things that complicate their ability to compete?
- BGBill Gurley
The first one that's, I think, been well-publicized is when an entrepreneur has risen to a level of success and then uses that as a platform, the government seems uninterested in that. So [laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
Exhibit A-
- BGBill Gurley
The Jack Ma
- TFTim Ferriss
... Jack Ma.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, exactly. And there's a saying that I think I heard while I was over there, "Don't be the tallest tree."
- TFTim Ferriss
Don't be the tallest tree. The nail that sticks out gets hammered down in Japan. They have a totally different system obviously.
- BGBill Gurley
The other entrepreneur outside of Lei Jun is the ByteDance CEO.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And ByteDance probably got the leading position for the consumer AI, like OpenAI, but over there right now, in addition to just incredible revenue growth. This is the company that own TikTok and whatnot. But they're not going public, and you don't see him at all.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
You know, which may get to this tallest tree thing.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. I mean, celebrities also disappear over there-
- BGBill Gurley
No doubt
- TFTim Ferriss
... very mysteriously.
- BGBill Gurley
Yes, and businesspeople.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
So yes, that does happen.
- TFTim Ferriss
I will say, and for people who are wondering, right? Because the, there are a lot of... How should we put this? I mean, there are people who are very angry, very hawkish. Some people are very, very supportive, and then their agendas or f- alliances get questioned. I, like you, am just interested in understanding what is happening to the extent that I can, right? What is the actual truth on the ground? What are the details? And frankly, I mean, the innovation over there is, is remarkable. And what they've done in terms of establishing access to rare metals and [laughs] everything-
- BGBill Gurley
Right. Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... they need to manufacture is remark- You go to South America or Africa, and it is Chinese everywhere on infrastructure projects. I mean, they've been very, very smart about it. So I'm deeply interested in, in all of it, and please hold your thought because I wanna hear everything you have to say. What I would say is a, a piece of the three-dimensional chess that I've been impressed with is how well the Chinese government is able to... Well, I mean, of course they're able to integrate with the private sector so that they're able to use, in a sense, products to widen their scope of access potentially, like DJI, for instance, great example. People have a lot of questions around these cars. As spectacular as they might be, are they an extension of surveillance, right? These are open questions that I think are worth asking. But you were about to say something, so I'll let you hop in.
- BGBill Gurley
No, no, no, no. I, I think, let me make one point, and then let's come to that.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
So
- 28:40 – 37:26
America vs. China (Lawyers vs. engineers).
- BGBill Gurley
there's two other things I wanted to mention. Obviously, infrastructure. So th- they are building new nuclear fission plants, so fission being old school, not-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yep
- BGBill Gurley
... new school, at one-fourth the price that we do it here in the US. So is South Korea, by the way.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, and the numbers are incredible.
- BGBill Gurley
But, but when we sit here and say, "Oh, we wanna reshore manufacturing," and they can build things at one-fourth the price we can, if you don't solve that, you're gonna reshore something, and we're gonna not be price competitive globally.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And then because you won't import what they have and you're gonna make our citizens buy this new, from this new factory where we're making things way more expensive, it doesn't work, like-
- TFTim Ferriss
The m- the math doesn't math
- BGBill Gurley
... it, it doesn't work. And, and by the way, I'm not, not sure it brings jobs. The Xiaomi factory was a, a third, based on some numbers I was able to acquire, a third the number of employees per car output.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And I gotta believe in 10 years it'll be a sixth. And so you could calculate the total number of jobs you'd be bringing back if you brought back all this car production, and it'd be hundreds of thousands. It's not millions and millions of jobs. So anyway, that infrastructure thing's for real, and, and I think Dan Wang does a good job of saying that America's run by lawyers-
- TFTim Ferriss
And this is the author of, of Breakneck
- BGBill Gurley
... of Breakneck. Our country's run by lawyers, and theirs is run by engineers.
- TFTim Ferriss
Engineers.
- BGBill Gurley
And so when you try and build something here, the lawyers just get in the way-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... and try and block it, which certainly when you hear Elon talks about why the Gigafactory's here in Austin and not in California, it all relates to those things. So anyway, that's infrastructure. There's another thing that's, I think, quite interesting, which is the government may not Care about whether or not their companies have really big market caps.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And when I first realized this, you know, you saw what happened when they, they took down Alibaba when they went after Jack Ma, and Ant Financial could've been this big thing, and it got, you know, haircut. And you question, well, do they care? And if you are pushing your companies to be low-cost providers, maybe that's at odds with them being hyper profitable and really big. And then you can turn around and ask the question that, hearing that cause me to ask the question, does America really benefit by the fact that the Mag Seven have $3 trillion market caps? I know the employees of those companies do, but is that a sign of, of our competitive capitalistic society not being truly competitive?
- TFTim Ferriss
On a global scale.
- BGBill Gurley
And, or even within.
- TFTim Ferriss
Right.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, there's a notion you learn about in economics classes called pure competition, and in pure competition, no one has an intellectual property advantage. Marginal profits are whittled down just to the cost of capital, and the consumer benefits because there's no excessive profit capture.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
If we have all these companies that are able to kinda have excessive profits, is that a form of market failure?
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And does the fact that they exist help America in any way? I, at first, I, of course, I'm a venture capitalist, so I wanna think, yes, of course. But then as I think about it, I don't know that our government or our society or our people are better off because these six companies have $3 trillion market caps.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
It, it's not that many people that the percentage of the country that's employed by those companies is small-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- 37:26 – 40:08
Keys for US competitiveness.
- TFTim Ferriss
what, at this point, is it a day late and a dollar short for the US? I know I, I almost promised we weren't gonna go into this, but I, I wanna know your opinion. I'm so curious. What are the keys to the US remaining globally competitive and vibrant as an economy? You hinted to one, which is, I mean, it seems kinda inevitable, nuclear power or more power, so how do you do that? I'm not sure how quickly you can right the ship, although it seems like a, a handful of people have done a pretty good job of changing the narrative.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
What are some of the key things, in your opinion, that the US needs to do?
- BGBill Gurley
One is make it easier to build.
- TFTim Ferriss
Build companies? Build-
- BGBill Gurley
I think build infrastructure
- TFTim Ferriss
... infrastructure.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, if you're gonna build semiconductor plants, if you're gonna build nuclear plants on time and on budget, that's very hard to do in the US right now. And the glimmer of hope, I would say, is that a few states seem to have governors that wanna get stuff out of the way, and I think it's red tape and bureaucracy and lawyers and litigation that make this stuff so expensive. And so Texas and Arizona seem to be getting their unfair share of data centers and semiconductor plants, and I think because of that attitude. I've seen a similar attitude in Pennsylvania-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... you know, where they repaired I-95 in 12 days. But they literally had to take a bunch of statutes that are on the books and say they, they don't apply right now. So that mindset, I think, needs a lot more momentum.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
That'd be one thing.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
There's another thing that I think's important for people to understand on the China front. There are numerous people with a loud microphone that will say, oh, they know how to scale out plants, but they don't know how to do any innovation, and that's just flat wrong. Whoever's saying that just hasn't been there. They don't know the facts on the ground. These entrepreneurs are every bit as good as the entrepreneurs they are here. There are examples, like in LIDAR, they built a MEMS LIDAR product that's like $130 a car. The LIDAR-
- TFTim Ferriss
What is MEMS LIDAR?
- BGBill Gurley
They, it uses solid state semiconductor technology instead of that big spinning radar.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yep.
- BGBill Gurley
And so the LIDAR on a Waymo is five grand.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
And it's 130 bucks for MEMS LIDAR they're putting on every car. You can go into ChatGPT and say, "Tell me about MEMS LIDAR innovation in China." It's a great example. Lei Jun's another one. Anybody that thinks there's no innovation is just-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, they're just wrong. That's crazy
- BGBill Gurley
... they, they got blinders on.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, no, that's not true. That's definitely
- 40:08 – 41:28
Bill is bullish on these countries.
- TFTim Ferriss
not true. I asked you two years ago if there are any countries that you're long on. At the time, I'd be curious if this is still the case, you said you're long on the UK. Less regulatory capture.
- BGBill Gurley
Did I say that? [chuckles]
- TFTim Ferriss
Losing party pays in the legal system.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, I do, I do love that. [chuckles]
- TFTim Ferriss
[chuckles] Which reduces frivolous litigation compared to the US. Any thoughts on where you're bullish these days?
- BGBill Gurley
Well, I, ironically, Matt Ridley was in town a few weeks ago in Austin.
- TFTim Ferriss
The rational optimist.
- BGBill Gurley
Yes, who I-
- TFTim Ferriss
Other books
- BGBill Gurley
... I love his stuff, but he would say that I would be dead wrong on that. [chuckles]
- TFTim Ferriss
[chuckles]
- BGBill Gurley
That things, things aren't going well there, so... And he lives there, so I'll just take that as I got that one wrong.
- TFTim Ferriss
[chuckles] Well, I mean, it depends on the timeframe too, right? Is it two years, or is it five years, or is it 10 years?
- BGBill Gurley
One of the things that's been impressive about China is, you know, since Deng Xiaoping kinda brought back capitalism, 500 million people have come out of poverty. And you look at countries that have a very strong work ethic and a high education and a low, currently low per populate income, and you would think more jobs would come their way. So two that would pop for me are Vietnam and Turkey-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm
- BGBill Gurley
... who kinda check all those boxes. Hopefully I do better than [chuckles]
- TFTim Ferriss
[chuckles] Check in in another two years.
- 41:28 – 43:39
Matthew McConaughey’s “Don’t half ass it” moment.
- TFTim Ferriss
All right, so let's, let's talk about, this is gonna be a segue to talking about Runnin' Down a Dream and all things involved with that. Maybe we could start with an anecdote from a fellow Austinite. Likes to play the bongos, long hair, associated with [chuckles] smoking reefer every once in a while. [chuckles] Matthew.
- BGBill Gurley
Yes.
- TFTim Ferriss
We were talking about a short anecdote about Matthew before we started recording. Would you mind sharing that?
- BGBill Gurley
As I was kinda wrapping up the book, I started listening to Greenlights.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And I was told you had to listen to it 'cause of course he reads it, so you get all the great McConaughey affections-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... as you read it. But there's a story in it that just popped in my brain and kinda summarized exactly what I'm trying to accomplish with this book, Runnin' Down a Dream. And he had spent the vast majority of his young a- adult life, so this anecdote's from when he was, like, 20, 21, telling his family he was gonna be a lawyer. And so he'd gotten into the University of Texas. He was pre-law. Every time he went home, he talked about, "Yeah, I'm gonna be a lawyer." And he had met some people at Texas that had convinced him that he should switch to film school. And he had immense anxiety about sharing this with his father. His father, this is all in the book, but his father's a very tough individual. And so reason to be fearful, [laughs] you know, when you're gonna drop some news. I'm no longer gonna be a lawyer, I'm gonna go to film school. And he builds it up a lot in the book. Like, I, I didn't know when I was gonna talk to him. Like, you can imagine being in that situation. You're delaying, delaying, delaying. But he finally tells his dad, and his dad utters this very simple phrase, "Well, don't half-ass it."
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
And he says, you know, of all the reactions he could have had, "'Don't half-ass it' were the last words I expected to hear, and the best words he could have ever said to me." And he said in that single moment, he gave him blessing, consent, approval, validation, privilege, honor, freedom, and responsibility. Called it rocket fuel.
- 43:39 – 45:00
Runnin’ Down a Dream thesis: Helping people pursue X instead of A, B, or C.
- BGBill Gurley
And I'd like to believe there are a number of people out there, young adults, maybe even some mid- midlife career, who have this notion that they should be doing something else. But society has put them on a path, or just the way they matriculated through college put them into a career that they just don't love, and that they have this inkling that they could go do this thing. Or maybe you're a young kid and you really wanna do X, but everybody else is telling you to do A, B, and C. Like, I want to help them have the confidence and permission to go do X, to go chase this dream.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And as you hinted at from our last call, I think the amount of your ability to make connections and to gather information and learn on your own pace has never been better. You can literally just sit there and talk to ChatGPT six hours a day if you so choose and learn so much about any particular field. And so, like, your ability to take things into your own hands and to go try and be successful in this thing y- that you feel passionate about, I think has never been better.
- 45:00 – 46:41
The 80,000-hour question.
- TFTim Ferriss
Why do you think when you initially gave and subsequently had to go online, Runnin' Down a Dream, as a presentation, why do you think that took? Why did it strike a chord in the way that it did? What do you think it was?
- BGBill Gurley
I think we've built a society, like, nobody's fault. Like, we just have built a society where we love to celebrate people that are successful in a lot of different fields, but when it comes to our own children, we tend to think way more pragmatically about what they should be doing. You know, lawyers, consultants, doctors, computer scientists, like, it's all these jobs that have certainty to the financial component. And I think that's, like, so well-intended. Like, I don't think there's malintent of anyone in the system, and I'm a parent of three, like, I've been through this. You just feel this obligation to try and push them towards prosperity, but it's not intellectual prosperity. It's not happiness. It's, it's financial. Like-
- TFTim Ferriss
Stability.
- BGBill Gurley
Yes, that most people are guiding children towards. This isn't that complicated of math, but most people end up working 80,000 hours in their life.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
It's a third of your life. Why do something you don't like? There's Gallup poll data on career engagement, and 59% of people say they're not engaged at work. And this is that whole quiet quitting thing that we hear so much about. And some of these numbers are at an all-time low. It just seems horrific that people are kind of sauntering through life.
- 46:41 – 50:50
The self-learning test.
- TFTim Ferriss
What are some of the keys to taking the path less traveled then in this case, right? There are a few I highlighted for myself, but where should we start? I highlighted one for myself. We don't have to start here, but go where the action is. I just think this is so underrated. [laughs] And people, it, further undervalue it maybe in a digital world, but we can start anywhere you want. That's just one that really jumped out to me because I think it's really underrated. But where would you like to start?
- BGBill Gurley
In the book, one of the things that we tie together very early on is the interplay between passion or fascination or curiosity and learning. And the way to be most successful in any endeavor, but certainly if you're gonna go tilt at something that's less pragmatic-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... is to be the smartest, most knowledgeable person you can possibly be. And knowledge is free now, as we've talked about. And I have this test for whether or not you're actually truly passionate about what you're trying to do, which is, do you self-learn on your own time?
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, would you not watch Breaking Bad and read about this field and be energized by that activity?
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
If you are, and you know, we have 20, 30 different stories in the book of people that have been successful, almost all of them check that box.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
You just have this amazing ability to gain knowledge so much faster than everyone else you would be competing with.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And that's gonna be useful. That's unquestionably gonna be useful.
- TFTim Ferriss
It makes me think of an interview I saw a long time ago, actually. It was quite a few years ago, but it was an interview with Joe Rogan, and he said something that, uh, surprised me and might surprise a lot of people, which was along the lines of he's not good at, it was either willpower or discipline, which is, he's in great shape. Obviously, he's black belt in jujitsu. He's done what he's done with the podcast. He's the undisputed king of podcasting, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And he said, "I'm not actually good at," whether it was discipline or willpower, "but I am good at obsession." It's all on or all off, and I've seen that, I'm sure you've seen this, in a lot of the entrepreneurs who actually make it to the other side and create these mega successes. They are just obsessed.
- BGBill Gurley
No doubt.
- TFTim Ferriss
And that gives them a huge, not just knowledge advantage, but endurance advantage. You just go down the checkboxes. It's all advantages.
- BGBill Gurley
I had the opportunity to talk to Angela Duckworth when I was working on this, and her book, Grit, talks about two components, passion and perseverance. And I heard a podcast she had done recently where she said if she could go back-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... she would put far more weight on the passion than the perseverance, because she says we've taught our children to grind.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And so once again, starting in sixth grade, they're told to learn the flute and take lacrosse and do all this stuff, and crush the SATs and take the extra credit classes and all this, and they all do it, and then they go to college and, "All right, how are you doing?" They take six hours of class instead of four, and they're just going. But eventually, she says, if you don't have that passion, you just burn out. And so you're right about the energy part. I think it's both knowledge and you've put in more cycles.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. It makes me think of, maybe this is clichéd in Silicon Valley because it gets so oft repeated, but a, a lot of folks listening will not have heard it, which is if you're looking for the next sort of technological breakthrough or something on the edge, look for what the nerds are doing on the weekends, right? It's not just a great way to find what might be coming around the corner in a few years, it's a great way to find the people to bet on who are already using their excess, their free time, to work on these things.
- BGBill Gurley
No doubt.
- TFTim Ferriss
I think of Repetis and 3D printing. I mean, I can just go down the list.
- BGBill Gurley
And by the way, that's another advantage of going to the epicenter is there's more people doing that all
- 50:50 – 54:19
Bob Dylan as music expeditionary.
- BGBill Gurley
the time.
- TFTim Ferriss
Let's talk about, people might be surprised by this, but Bob Dylan, right? I think this is just the, the quintessential example. Why is he relevant to what we're talking about?
- BGBill Gurley
When this idea popped in my head, I had finished a third biography and contrasted it with these other two, and I just saw all these patterns. You know, VC's a game of pattern recognition. I guess my brain's just developed. I was like, oh my God, it's all this kinda lock thing where these three people had all done the same thing, and one was a basketball coach, one was a restaurateur, and the other was Bob Dylan. You know, not people you would... Not industry, "Oh, this is where you should get career development advice," right?
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
There's a part of the Dylan story that most people wouldn't know unless they had read all the biographies or maybe seen the Scorsese documentary, but the new movie misses the whole thing, which is the pre-New York Bob Dylan was hanging out in Minnesota studying folk music at such a deep level that I feel confident in saying when he left, he knew more about folk music than any other human in Minnesota. And he was borrowing, maybe that's even a euphemism, he was stealing his friend's albums.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
He was going into the record store into these listening booths. Like, he knew all there was to know-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm
- BGBill Gurley
... and had studied every bit of it. And he's referred to by Scorsese as a music expeditionary, and the people that knew him in New York said he could mimic anyone's song. It's not what you would think of when you hear a Dylan song, that he had kind of mastered the bedrock underneath and then started innovating. Picasso, by the way, same thing, perfect realist painter at age 14. If you go to the Barcelona Picasso Museum, it's in geographic order, and you're kinda shocked at how good a realist this, this kid was before he went and did this other thing.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
That bedrock knowledge I think is so differentiating-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... for someone to have all the history and then to start doing the innovation.
- TFTim Ferriss
What was the before and after on Dylan, sort of Minnesota, New York City? And why is that such an important piece of the puzzle?
- BGBill Gurley
By the way, and, and just to even pile on more on this kinda studious part of Bob Dylan, he did a podcast series for a while where he just walks through all these different genres of music and-
- TFTim Ferriss
You're talking about Bob Dylan himself?
- BGBill Gurley
Yes.
- TFTim Ferriss
Oh, I didn't realize this.
- BGBill Gurley
You can go find it. He stopped, but he... And then that book he put out of the 50 best songs, the coffee table book that came out two years ago, it's incredible the amount of knowledge he has about songs, you know, outside of his genre, everything. So he's a clear student-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... of what he's doing. I think this is well known and is covered at the beginning of the movie. He went to New York to find Woody Guthrie.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
Probably the single kinda most deterministic and ambitious mentor pursuit story that I've ever heard of. [laughs] Like, he hitchhiked there with no money-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... and found him and became friends with him.
- TFTim Ferriss
This echoes back to go where the action is also.
- BGBill Gurley
Oh, no doubt. And by the way, he landed, you know, in Manhattan at the center of the folk music scene, and all those people he was studying when he was listening in Minnesota, they were all there.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
You know, he got to know them all. If that doesn't happen, I don't think Dylan
- 54:19 – 1:04:40
Go to the epicenter where the action is.
- BGBill Gurley
happens.
- TFTim Ferriss
How relevant do you think the go where the action is now considering the access to information using ChatGPT or other tools, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera? Maybe less so access to mentors, although you can have virtual relationships, but how, how relevant do you think that is? I've got my own opinion, but...
- BGBill Gurley
You could certainly have the type of peer and mentor experiences that are remote. I have a great anecdote about MrBeast in the book that we could talk about that was a remote one, but the benefits of being in and around a whole bunch of people that are chasing the same thing is so high. Like-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... and I think the intuition is- Oh, well, it's gonna be even more competitive, so why would I go? Wouldn't it be better to try and do this in a town where it's less of a big deal? But the problem is, your learning is impacted, your access to peers and mentors is drastically reduced, and then probably most importantly, your optionality gets cut so dramatically. People think that a lot of success stories, they attribute it to luck, but, you know, there's that famous saying, "Luck is when preparation meets opportunity." And when you're in the epicenter, both your preparation and your opportunity go up, you know, 10X. And so your ability to just have that lucky moment where you get brought into something is so much higher.
- TFTim Ferriss
So the lucky moment is, I think, really important to underscore in terms of going where the action is, because there's a lot you can do virtually. But let's just say you're using ChatGPT. You're going to get what you prompt. In other words, like, you're asking for something-
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... and that can take you down a rabbit hole. But there, at least in my lived experience, and certainly I still see this happening, when I moved to Silicon Valley in 2000, and then I look back at my angel investing career, I look back at all these collaborations, the vast majority of them did not come from me going out with an agenda and seeking something. They came from serendipitous bumping into somebody at a coffee shop. I literally met Naval Ravikant because I was hitting on his girlfriend at the time when she was getting her coffee, didn't realize they were together. [chuckles] And then you look at Garrett Camp, Kevin Rose. These are like s- at a barbecue, I met Kevin Rose. And you go down the list and you look at all of these formative, massively impactful, personally and professionally, relationships, they almost all came from serendipity. And you just don't seem to get that density unless you're in the center of the action. And perhaps it's easier to relocate yourself, I'm sure it is, when you have fewer responsibilities. But God, I can't even imagine what my life would have looked like had I not left Long Island and then ultimately moved to Silicon Valley.
- BGBill Gurley
Same for me. I had thought about the notion of venture capital and practicing it, and probably would have jumped at any job I could have got. Like, when I was at McCombs here in Austin, I tried to get an interview at Austin Ventures. Like, I didn't get one, but had they said yes, maybe I practiced there, and I, I'm glad that didn't happen. Going and practicing it where I did was the exact right place to do it. I do think if you can, 'cause there are financial constraints, you know, if you wanna be great at a field and that field has an epicenter-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... I think you should go.
- TFTim Ferriss
And there are different types of epicenters too. Like, you think about, let's just say AI, not to repeatedly bang that drum, but you could just say, okay, AI, first thing that comes to mind, Silicon Valley. But this is gonna be a bit of a digression, but I remember asking Derek Sivers, a friend of mine, amazing entrepreneur, kind of philosopher, programmer, people can look him up. But I asked him, "Who's the first person who comes to mind when you think of the word successful?" And he said, "Well, actually, the most interesting or more interesting question might be, who's the third person who comes to mind?" Because I might say something really obvious like Richard Branson, but is he successful? I don't really know what his goals were, so I'd have to compare his goals to his outcomes. And then you get to the third. S- similarly, with an epicenter, you could say Silicon Valley first, but there might be something that is dense in learning but has other advantages, like I think it's the University of Waterloo, but one of these universities where industry is trying to raid the academic program because it's so strong in terms of teaching-
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... the technical side, right? So there's so many different ways to approach it, but let's talk about a virtual example. You mentioned MrBeast. Could you describe that story?
- BGBill Gurley
I actually heard it on a podcast, but I had a... I also got a chance to talk to Jimmy Donaldson, so we got it firsthand. When he was infatuated with YouTube, he was one of the first people that was infatuated with YouTube. His parents were rightfully trying to get him to go to school and college, which he wasn't doing because he was playing around on, on YouTube all day. He met three other people who were equally fascinated with YouTube. And this is a virtual epicenter story, but it's really a peer story. One of my six principles is embrace your peers.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And I think far too many people have sharp elbows to peers 'cause they think, you know, they're climbing the ladder and they've gotta beat these people. And the world's just way too prosperous to have that mindset. Like, you can learn so much and get so much value from co-climbing- [chuckles]
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... that you should definitely do that. And I think it's not taught enough and people don't do it enough. But Jimmy happened on these three people, and they got on a Skype call, he said, 20 hours a day.
- TFTim Ferriss
Sounds like Jimmy. [chuckles]
- BGBill Gurley
For years, they shared best practices-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... on this call, which apparently in that world, like the color of the icon on the post you do on Instagram to send them to YouTube, like all little... these little bitty esoteric things can impact conversion. And he said when he was talking about this that they all became millionaires. And he said, "If you or any random individual had been a fifth person on those calls, you would have too."
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
You know, because of, of that. And it's just a wonderful example of how peers... He, on this podcast, said something that was very clever. He took the 10,000 hours thing from Gladwell and said, "Well, there were four of us spending 10,000 hours and then sharing ideas, so you get 40,000 hours-
- TFTim Ferriss
[chuckles]
- BGBill Gurley
... of expertise."
- TFTim Ferriss
How would you suggest people who are not on YouTube where you can identify outliers perhaps? I shouldn't say easily in this day and age. I mean, it's, it's a sea of participants. But how should people go about seeking peers, and do you rank order your principles in a way? For instance, do you want to first check the box, if you can, of go where the action is and then embrace your peers because the level will be higher? I think about, for instance, my experience in Silicon Valley. It could have just as easily for something else been Nashville or New York City or, who knows, Shanghai. I mean, it just depends on what you're doing. The mentors, let's just say like Mike Maples Jr., who taught me the very basic ropes of angel investing, without him, like I don't go zero to one in terms of having any basic literacy or access.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
So that was like the first rung on the ladder. But then once I was in, you look at people who were, in a sense, just getting started at the time. I mean, holy shit, some of them have really exploded. I mean, they've all done really well. Like Kevin Rose, Naval-
- 1:04:40 – 1:07:08
Danny Meyer’s pivot.
- TFTim Ferriss
bias, but-
- BGBill Gurley
No doubt, no doubt
- TFTim Ferriss
... but let's talk about Danny Meyer because I wanna give an example of someone who gave something up-
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... to then pursue X instead of A, B, or C. Could you say a little bit about Danny? You know, I've interviewed him on the podcast. I might have met him through you. I don't even remember how I initially connected with him. But who is Danny Meyer, and what is this kinda genesis story of Danny Meyer the restaurateur?
- BGBill Gurley
It's funny, when someone asks me who is Danny Meyer, I feel compelled the first thing to say he's one of the most genuine humans on the planet.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, for sure.
- BGBill Gurley
Just a wonderful human.
- TFTim Ferriss
For sure.
- BGBill Gurley
But he is also one of the most celebrated restaurateurs of our time. He was working for a company that sold these devices to clip onto clothes so you can't steal them from a retail store.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And he was making good money. He was making about $200,000 a year, and this is-
- TFTim Ferriss
At the time
- BGBill Gurley
... forty years ago, so-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, real money
- BGBill Gurley
... yeah, real money. And he had convinced himself he was gonna be a lawyer. I guess a lot of people convince themselves of that. And he was about to take the LSAT, and he was out to dinner with his uncle. And you know, his uncle was probing him and probing him. And, "Oh, yeah, he's gonna take the LSAT." And he s- I think his uncle sensed a lack of real conviction about this thing, this person, this human was gonna do. And he literally said to him, "Why are you doing this? You know you want to be a restaurateur."
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
And when you read Danny's book, he did spend a ton of time in his youth being fascinated with restaurants and to the point where he would take copious notes-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm
- BGBill Gurley
... like prior to even doing this. So his family had a reason to know that he had this deep passion.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
But it's interesting it's an uncle, right? I don't know that a parent-
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
... is gonna jump in and say that. And maybe that's an advantage I have, not knowing the readers of my book, in giving them this permission to do things that aren't necessarily pragmatic. But anyway, his uncle said, "You should start a restaurant." And he took the test. He never submitted the scores to a university, and very soon thereafter enrolled in some vocational restaurant courses and took a job. He took the first job he could get, which was a front office job at a restaurant that was making about a tenth the salary that he was making in the sales job.
- TFTim Ferriss
And went on to, you know, Gramercy Tavern. I mean, all these iconic restaurants. Then Shake Shack, then, I mean-
- BGBill Gurley
Yes
- TFTim Ferriss
... just dot,
- 1:07:08 – 1:13:16
Working for free.
- TFTim Ferriss
dot, dot, dot, dot.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, and, and we walk through in detail his path once he made this intention And one of the variables that my co-writer and I were looking for as we added stories to the book was this moment of intentionality. We didn't want people that fell into a job and were successful. We wanted people that had made a decision, usually a pivot, to say, "I'm gonna go do this now."
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And once he had made that decision, not only did he take that job, but he, he took advantage of being in that restaurant to learn about the multiple functions. But then he set up a tour through Europe as a stage-
- TFTim Ferriss
A stage
- BGBill Gurley
... in multiple places where he's working for free, basically.
- TFTim Ferriss
I'm so glad you brought this up because I wouldn't have brought it up myself, but this is gonna relate in a, in a second. I've run a bunch of competitions for, let's just say, creating artwork for PDFs slash, like, free books I'm gonna put out or whatever, and there's always a big hubbub where folks get... Some folks get very upset, and they say, "Oh, you want people to work for free?" And I'm like, "Well, there's gonna be a winner." It's like, if you don't wanna participate, don't participate.
- BGBill Gurley
[laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
But there's always this kind of shaking of the fist, like, "Ah, it's so unfair. You want people to work, do work for free." When I look at almost every example of someone who became the equivalent of Danny Meyer in their world, they did a lot that was unpaid, almost always. I'm sure there are exceptions, but it's like you-- Staging is a great example in the restaurant world where it's like, okay, you wanna work at a restaurant where, where you're gonna have the highest density of learning and you don't know shit, like, guess what? [laughs] They, they probably don't wanna pay you a whole lot 'cause it's actually gonna be a bit of a drain on their resources to show you around and teach you how to work your station and do all this stuff. So I would just encourage people to not be allergic to that. And the way I got, in a sense, my foot in the door in Silicon Valley was I volunteered at TiE, the Indus Entrepreneur.
- BGBill Gurley
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
I volunteered at-
- BGBill Gurley
I spoke at TiE years ago. [laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
I, I volunteered with all of these nonprofit groups and quickly realized that most volunteers are doing the absolute minimum to be volunteers, and if you just do ten percent more, it doesn't take much. I would just refill people's water glasses and stuff after I finished taking their tickets for an event, and suddenly the producers of this event, who were also doing it but had, like, real jobs... I mean, I had a job out of college, sure, and I was working a lot. They were like, "Wow, this kid's a go-getter [laughs] 'cause he's refilling these water glasses. Let's give him more responsibility." And that's how I ended up connecting with all these speakers and everything. Just did some stuff for free on the weekends. It didn't take a lot.
- BGBill Gurley
There's a story in the book that's actually hard to believe. We profile this woman, Jen Atkins, who's a hairstylist. It's an incredible story. But the one anecdote, she's rising in her career, and things are starting to work, and she has jobs, and she's getting paid. She would go to Fashion Week in Paris and sneak in the back door and volunteer to do the hair of the models on stage.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
Like, snuck in. Like, not supposed to be there-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah
- BGBill Gurley
... just to get reps with these top models in this environment.
- TFTim Ferriss
Incredible.
- BGBill Gurley
It, it sounds unfathomable that someone would do that. She did it multiple times.
- TFTim Ferriss
And she did it.
- BGBill Gurley
Yes.
- TFTim Ferriss
What ended up happening after that? I don't know her story.
- BGBill Gurley
She's become probably the most successful hairstylist of our time. [laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
It's an incredible story.
- TFTim Ferriss
How do you suggest people who are... Maybe they're doing A, B, and C right now. They're listening to this, and they just say, "All right. I wanna take the leap. I wanna do Z. I wanna do whatever-"
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... "the off-menu option is."
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- 1:13:16 – 1:15:27
Never too late: Tito Beveridge started Tito’s Vodka at 40.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah. Yeah. Well, actually, I, I have an example of someone who just turned it on. We have a chapter called Never Too Late, which is where the Sal Khan thing is 'cause that happened when he was close to forty. Another local Austinite Burt Tito Beveridge started his endeavor in the spirit business at-
- TFTim Ferriss
So wild. I was just thinking about him while driving here for no good reason
- BGBill Gurley
... at the age of 40. He's watching a PBS special.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
This is also hard to believe. He's watching a PBS special, and back when probably when there were only four channels or whatever, but they said, on the screen, they said, "Take a blank sheet of paper, draw a line down it, put what you love to do on the left and what you're really good at on the right, just a list of those things, and then contemplate what might be in the middle." And he had studied chemistry and a lot of stuff, and he liked going out to bars [laughs] and socializing, and he was making flavored vodka as Christmas presents in his spare time.
- TFTim Ferriss
What was his day job?
- BGBill Gurley
His first career was in seismology and, and like the oil field.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
And that dragged him to South America. And then when that became dangerous, both, both in Midland and in South America, he became a mortgage broker.
- TFTim Ferriss
Okay. [laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
He didn't love either of them.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
But the reason I brought it up when you said, like, already, I don't know that he was already studying-
- TFTim Ferriss
Right
- BGBill Gurley
... the spirit business, but once he made that intentionality to go do this, then he studied it writ large.
- TFTim Ferriss
How did he start? Just out of curiosity, 'cause I was just thinking about him. Tito Beveridge just acquired Lalo Tequila-
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... which I was involved with. That's probably why he popped to mind. But how did he start?
- BGBill Gurley
He first started by just studying the distilling process writ large, like read everything he possibly could. And then it turns out there were no distilleries in the state of Texas, and there were laws on the books that made it nearly impossible. So then he had to study that and, and literally rewrite regulation-
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
... to make it possible. Interestingly, he did the whole thing on credit cards, so he owns 100% of the business.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
Which is a huge business. It's the single largest spirit sold in America.
- TFTim Ferriss
Didn't realize that.
- BGBill Gurley
Yes.
- TFTim Ferriss
Didn't realize it was that big.
- BGBill Gurley
It's huge.
- TFTim Ferriss
Wow. Good for him.
- BGBill Gurley
Huge. Yes. [laughs]
- 1:15:27 – 1:19:38
AI sanity checks.
- TFTim Ferriss
That's so wild. I promise to get to this, and I do wanna get to it. Are there any sanity checks that you would put in place to complement the fascination/obsession/what I'm doing in my spare time or would pay to do or do for free? Like, so I'm wondering if there are any things you, you would take off the table or how you would hone that given the rapidly developing [laughs] technology of AI. So if someone said, "You know, what I love to do in my spare time is copy editing-"
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... I might not suggest that they throw caution to the wind and-
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... burn the ships and go into copy editing. Any thoughts? Because this is something that is-
- BGBill Gurley
Well, the first thing I would note is that many of those pragmatic jobs that the well-intentioned parents have been pushing their children towards are at risk.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, for sure.
- BGBill Gurley
So, so comp sci.
- TFTim Ferriss
Right. It's kind of-
- BGBill Gurley
[laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, risky, but as compared to what, right?
- BGBill Gurley
Comp sci went from being the, the most least risky major you could possibly get to one that's somewhat risky, like-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah
- BGBill Gurley
... overnight. And so that'd be my first, like, notion. And, you know, the second thing I would add to that, which I already said, is no matter what your endeavor is, you need to be playing with this tool. It's a modern tool.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
It's the equivalent of a laptop and Microsoft Word was. It's equivalent of what a calculator was. Like, you don't wanna go out in the world and play without the modern tool set.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
It's a part of what you need. If you're playing with those things and you're curious, you know where the edge is of whatever you're passionate about and what the technology's capable of.
- TFTim Ferriss
In order to find that edge and follow that edge, right, which will move, you have to be playing with the tools.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah. And I think in any field, one thing I love to suggest on the, on the learning side is know the history and know the, the new innovative edge. If you bring both of those things to the table, you are highly compelling. That could be true even if you're not chasing your dream job, even if you're just a marketing major. If you walk into an interview at Clorox and you can simultaneously show that you've studied all the historical best marketers and you also understand how TikTok works, that's heavily differentiating in that interview.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, you're gonna get the job, I would argue, versus someone else, if you can portray those things.
- TFTim Ferriss
How would you apply that here? Is that just, I guess, field dependent or are you referring to AI?
- BGBill Gurley
I think AI is the leading edge of almost any industry.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
So yeah, I'm, I'm saying you should just study what it's capable of. The thing that LLMs are most capable of, it's a large language model, the language type stuff. Uh, your copy editing example, like things that were just wrote moving words around, yeah, it's really good at that stuff. But it doesn't mean that you can't be the person that really understands what it's capable of and then, like, superpower yourself to go attack a particular interest. You had started a question by saying, like, warnings. You know, I think there are a lot of fields where talent really does matter. I don't know that I can make you a singer. I certainly can't make you an NBA basketball player. But in all those fields, whether it be Hollywood or sports or, you know, even in... Danny Meyer at one time thought he was gonna be a chef and he just became a restaurateur. He wasn't a chef. I would say that there, for any artistic field, there are way more jobs that support those artists than there are the jobs of the artist.
- TFTim Ferriss
What do you mean by that?
- BGBill Gurley
I mean, we have an example in the book of a Hollywood agent, and that individual had not thought about a job in Hollywood when they were growing up because they felt they couldn't act.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
So they're like, "Oh, I can't go do that." But there's tons of jobs-
- 1:19:38 – 1:22:48
AI-proof bets.
- BGBill Gurley
person.
- TFTim Ferriss
This makes me think of a interview I was watching recently, Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Invest with the Best. He was interviewing Ari Emanuel, so famous super agent.
- BGBill Gurley
Yep.
- TFTim Ferriss
Force of nature. His whole family is just like drinking different water. I don't know what's going on there. But he has raised a ton of money to invest in live events, sports, and so on as an anti-AI or maybe AI anti-fragile bet, right? And there are lots of ways to make money when you raise a lot of money. So putting that aside, any other AI resilient or anti-AI bets that you think are interesting outside of live events, live sports, which are-
- BGBill Gurley
I think a lot of the service industries, I think humans enjoy experiences, and I don't think that changes personally that much. Restaurateurs or hoteliers, like I think all those things are gonna thrive and people that know how to really differentiate experiences in that way.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
I don't share this thought that we're all gonna go watch movies that we've imagined that are made just for ourselves. I find that hard to believe. I think people enjoy great art in many different forms. They enjoy talking about it.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And they enjoy the community element of having seen the same thing.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And so it may be that if you're a movie maker, you're using AI instead of this expensive CGI tool set. But I think the storytelling and the imagination and the writing, I think all those things will still be real. I really do. And obviously, just general business entrepreneurship. I took my dad, who's ninety-three, fly fishing in, in Montana this summer, and we were at a lodge, and one of the other guests that was staying there is a twenty-eight-year-old entrepreneur from the tip of Texas down near Corpus Christi area. And he had started like three or four businesses, and it was well off. Like, I'm not saying... But he was so enamored with AI. He said, "And then I needed this, and then it did this, and then I needed this, and then it did this, and then, like, I, I wanted to know where to put the next one of these, and I just ask it, 'Where would you put it in the city?' And it immediately gave me answers." This guy was already successful, but he was running triple speed because he had tipped into this stuff, and he was learning what was possible because he had an open mind towards it solving problems.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And I thought, "Holy shit, if other people kinda just leaned at it the way he's leaning at it, they would become super powered themselves." I was like really blown away by that.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. This makes me think of Kevin Rose. Kevin Rose is spending the vast majority of his free time playing with all these tools, vibe coding, using them endlessly. And I f- I feel like that is probably over the next few weeks where I need to put some more time-
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah
- TFTim Ferriss
... and just take a layup with wherever it happens to intersect with someplace that makes it easy to apply.
- 1:22:48 – 1:26:07
Sam Hinkie’s Moneyball moment.
- TFTim Ferriss
Who's Sam Hinkie?
- BGBill Gurley
[laughs] Sam Hinkie is a gentleman that about, I don't know, six years ago became maybe the youngest GM in the history of the NBA. He became the general manager of the Philadelphia seventy-sixers.
- TFTim Ferriss
Why is this story relevant?
- BGBill Gurley
He was a amazing student. He grew up in Oklahoma. His father worked for Halliburton. He made good grades, good students, kinda classic, did everything right. Became a consultant. I think he was working for McKinsey.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And, and they moved him to Australia. And he's sitting there, and he's reading other things in his spare time. He's not reading about how to be a better consultant.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
And he reads a book called Moneyball, which-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah
- BGBill Gurley
... we all know of, the Michael Lewis book about the Oakland A's. In almost what seems like an instant decided, "I really need to be in sports analytics." And I mentioned that a lot of the stories we found have this intentionality. So that book, just like the Seinfeld, the last laugh did for Seinfeld, that book told him, "I'm gonna go do this." And from the day he read that book to getting the job as, as the head of GM of the seventy-sixers was about ten years. So no experience whatsoever in the field to youngest GM of all time in ten years.
- TFTim Ferriss
Was he obsessed with sports already at that point?
- BGBill Gurley
I think so. You know, this gets back to what I said about maybe your original obsession came from participating or being the talent, but then, you know, he, he's not particularly big. And so he was successful in high school, but there was no path to keep going down that field. So yeah, he had immense passion for the category but had never imagined himself in the field, you know, in one of these other roles until that book kinda disinhibited him and gave him permission to think, "Well, you know what? I could be differentiated on this dimension of understanding analytics." He immediately was applying to business school, and he used that as a pivot point. For those that have the, the needs and the resources, I think an MBA programs can be a great place to switch careers and go chase A different dream. And there's a great interesting anecdote in the book where he's trying to decide between Harvard and Stanford, which is a choice most humans never-
- TFTim Ferriss
Quality problem [laughs] .
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, exactly. But he went and told them both what he wanted to do, and Harvard basically said, "Well, we don't really have any programs like that." And Stanford, to give Stanford a lot of credit, said, "You know what? That's super interesting. We have, you know, this person associated with the school that does this. We- we'll introduce you to these four people," and were a lot like McConaughey's dad when Sam brought him that, that challenge.
- TFTim Ferriss
Sounds about right. That checks out for me [laughs] .
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, based on what you know of the two institutions.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah [laughs] .
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah. You know, he ended up meeting Michael Lewis because he was in the Bay Area, and some of the Stanford people knew Michael. And so he talked to the guy that wrote the book that inspired him. He hustled his ass off. Like-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... I don't wanna make it sound like... He kinda built his own curriculum,
- 1:26:07 – 1:37:33
Competitive strategy, avoiding false failures, and regret minimalization.
- BGBill Gurley
but it worked.
- TFTim Ferriss
For people who are not going to get an MBA, would you still suggest everyone read the first three chapters of Michael Porter's Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors?
- BGBill Gurley
Unquestionably. Anyone that's gonna do anything in business should read that book.
- TFTim Ferriss
All right. Wanted to give the throwback to our first conversation.
- BGBill Gurley
[laughs] By the way, at the back of the book, I listed about 50 books at the very end.
- TFTim Ferriss
Just to whet the appetite [laughs] .
- BGBill Gurley
Well, I think you did the same thing. In fact, I looked at yours for the structure when I wanted to see how to lay it out.
- TFTim Ferriss
Oh, amazing.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
Amazing. I wanna get your expansion on avoiding false failures. Let me explain what I mean by that. So there's this expression, if you do what you love, you'll never work a day in your life.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
Right?
- BGBill Gurley
It's in my notes [laughs] .
- TFTim Ferriss
But my experience has been it's not always fun, even if you're doing what you love. Sometimes there's burnout, sometimes you go through chapters where things do feel like a grind. I mean, that-- maybe I'm an outlier, but that's been my experience, right?
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
When, when I realized, for instance, in the case of the podcast, it's like, wow, I've much more sponsor demand than I could ever fill. If I just doubled the number of episodes, I'd double the number of revenue.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs] So why don't I do that? And it started to feel like a bad job. Not a bad job.
- BGBill Gurley
I get it.
- TFTim Ferriss
It's still a great job, but the volume was too high.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
And I can imagine if people take the expression I just mentioned, right? If you love what you do, you never work a day in your life. They pursue X, whatever that is, the songwriting in the case, and the performing in the case of Bob Dylan, Danny Meyer, whatever it might be, and then they hit a really hard stretch. Maybe it's early on.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
Maybe it's later. Maybe they're staging, and so some French guy yelling at them- [laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, yeah. Certainly
- TFTim Ferriss
... as, as the case with a friend of mine, and they're like, "Wow, God, you know, this, this really feels painful. Maybe this isn't my path."
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
How do you distinguish between growing pains that are temporary and an indication that you're not doing the right thing?
- BGBill Gurley
It's funny. I'll take a short diversion in answering the question-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. Love diversions
- 1:37:33 – 1:41:09
Purpose, Progress, and Prosperity — the P3 Policy Institute.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
Let's chat for a second. People should, should all check this out. I mean, you're, you're such a, an operator. Track record's incredible. Runnin' Down a Dream: How to Thrive in a Career You Actually Love. We'll talk about that again. We'll mention it again at the end. What do you want to do after this book? I mean, you, you can't sit on your hands very long. [laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
No. As I mentioned when I made the decision to stop the venture career, which I think we talked about on the last podcast-
- TFTim Ferriss
Little bit, yeah
- BGBill Gurley
... right after we read the Steve Martin book.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
But I didn't know. I knew I wanted to do something else, and I, I went on a listening tour and I talked to all these people that had kind of-
- TFTim Ferriss
Can you just reiterate what a listening tour is?
- BGBill Gurley
Oh, I just... I identified several people who had kind of successfully, retired's a strong word, but made a decision to stop doing a job they were very successful at, and then what do you do now, right?
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And it's similar to the Arthur Brooks book, but it was just a personal-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... like, a lot of people angel invest, a lot of people go on boards, a lot of people manage their own money.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
I had this list, people teach, and I s- slowly was checking them off, like-
- TFTim Ferriss
Just crossing them out
- BGBill Gurley
... scratching them out.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, like, nah, don't really wanna manage my own money. I don't really wanna angel invest. I don't wanna start my own venture firm. I've done that. And so I found myself crossing them all off, and I couldn't discover something that got me excited and tied into this, what are you doing with your external learning thing? And slowly I've come around to an idea that I made up, so it's not a career that other people have, but I, I think I'd like to start a policy institute.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
I've come up with a name, P3, which stands for Purpose, Progress, and Prosperity. When I was doing the BG2 podcast, which I recently stepped away from, we did a episode at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Facility.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And before I did that episode, I spent three or four weeks calling everyone I knew to make sure that I was prepared for that, and that was one of our more successful episodes, and I just really enjoyed that. I look at the shifting mindset around the globe on nuclear energy in the past five years as an example of what's possible with really great policy work. And it wasn't one person. I think, you know, the fact that Steve Pinker was banging the drum was super important, but Andreessen and Elon and all these people started pounding that same drum. Joe Gebbia's wife, you know-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... made this, like, a big life passion project of hers. But it's shocking how quick we went from, "This stuff's bad," to, "Oh, no, we made a mistake. It's actually good."
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And that could have a powerful impact on the planet. And so I don't know how many of those type things there are to find. I don't wanna go grind on state-by-state legislation. I don't have any interest in that. But looking at big problems, looking at US-China relations, US healthcare system has some massive problems. You know, can you come up with ideas that help shift these things? And I've already got to know some really innovative professors who are thinking in very innovative ways, and I, I look to use my financial capabilities to do grant writing through people like that and see what we can go do, see what we can go change. Regulatory capture is another one-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... that I've spent time
- 1:41:09 – 1:45:56
Regulatory capture explained.
- BGBill Gurley
tilting at.
- TFTim Ferriss
So could you elaborate on what... If you're not doing the state-by-state legislative change, what does the work of P3 potentially look like? Like, what is policy work?
- BGBill Gurley
We're, we're-
- TFTim Ferriss
I know that seems like a silly question, but-
- BGBill Gurley
We're at day one, so-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm. What might it look like?
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah. Here's an example. A professor approached me on the regulatory capture front. What if we put-
- TFTim Ferriss
Could you define that just for people who didn't hear episode one?
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So there's a Nobel Prize winner from the University of Chicago named George Stigler, he's passed away, who made the very strong argument that regulation is the friend of the incumbent. That-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... large businesses learn how to lobby Washington, and no matter how well-intentioned the policy is that's passed, it ends up benefiting the incumbent more than restricting the incumbent. And he won a Nobel Prize for that work. I, I gave a speech at the All-In Summit that you can go watch on YouTube, it has, like, 5 million views, on this topic, but I think this happens the majority of the time.
- TFTim Ferriss
It's why ACH takes three days to clear, right?
- BGBill Gurley
Yes, yes.
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
Yes, yes. But stablecoin may solve that. But this professor approached me about making a, maybe a global database that scores countries on how captured they are.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
And that identifies the best practices from the countries that have the best scores.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm.
- BGBill Gurley
That kind of thing, like investing in that type of data and transparency is pretty compelling to me. So that, that's an example of what I might go do.
- TFTim Ferriss
Well, let me chew on that for a second. So let's say you create this, this data set, right? That presents these scores on a country-by-country basis. What is, what are the hoped-for outcomes of that? That countries that have worse scores start to model the countries with better scores? Uh, certainly there might be talent flight from one place to another. I mean, we already see that in some respects. I mean, that's not purely regulatory capture determined, but what would the... When you share that data, what would the hope be?
- BGBill Gurley
The hope would be that you can shine a light on the best practices and-
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm
- BGBill Gurley
... and try to get those implemented-
- TFTim Ferriss
In other places
- BGBill Gurley
... here in the US.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
That would be the hope. And also, I think just shining a light on them. I'll give you an example that relates to regulatory capture. After you've been a senator or congressman for a while, you get invited onto committees.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yep.
- BGBill Gurley
The minute you're on a committee, you are in charge of regulation that affects different industries. Well, what happens, and you [chuckles] most... I don't even know if most humans know this. What happens is your local senator or your local congressman who you think is representing your district now starts raising money nationally.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- 1:45:56 – 1:56:06
Why the IPO market is broken.
- TFTim Ferriss
[chuckles] So other problems on your mind. Well, I'll just present a, a list here from some prep notes. We have US healthcare, regulatory capture, intellectual property, US-China, fairness in financial markets, US K-twelve. Could you speak to intellectual property and fairness in financial markets, what those... How you might be thinking about those?
- BGBill Gurley
I gotta be a top ten thousand percent supporter of open source.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yep.
- BGBill Gurley
And this gets back to Ridley's book, The, The Rational Optimist, but he talks about prosperity comes when ideas have sex.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
And just the sharing of information, in my mind, should be free.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
That it, it shouldn't cost anything. And it's very unclear to me that the patent system actually adds value. I, I'm quite doubtful that the human mind wouldn't innovate if it didn't come with a seventeen-year financial protection. Like, I just... I'm doubtful of that. I think there's great scientists at every university working on problems that aren't necessarily being patented, and your ability for hyper-competition and innovation is so much higher when there aren't restrictions in place.
- TFTim Ferriss
Hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
So I think the world's a better place when ideas are, are shared and not protected.
- TFTim Ferriss
How do you think if we're just, since the [chuckles] we- the system we're working with is the system we're currently working with, how might something like drug development work without patent protection?
- BGBill Gurley
Well, here's an interesting thing. The NIH gives out forty billion dollars a year, and a lot of that money goes to companies that end up getting venture capital backing, and then-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. I've had some very open fights with people about this. Yeah. Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
So why doesn't an NIH grant come with a open source rider?
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
And so if the VCs wanna fund-
- TFTim Ferriss
With federal funding, yeah
- BGBill Gurley
... propriety... Yeah, it's federal funding, like-
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, I agree with that
- BGBill Gurley
... and right now, there's a big fight over whether just their research papers have to go on non-private networks instead of the private ones they're on today. I mean, they just want the information out there.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, that's a minor step. I would consider a major step. And you don't have to take the money.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
But why is the US government giving people money that ends up becoming proprietary inventions? That, that makes no sense to me.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, whether it's the US government or individual philanthropists or foundations, I mean, on some level, if that, then at some point... Right, I agree with that. But are there industries that, I mean, the only one that first came to mind was, was drug development, where the R&D costs are so high-
- BGBill Gurley
That's because they have, they have-- They all cry. The VCs will tell you, "It'll never work. No one will have any incentive if we don't have a seventeen-year protection."
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
Our, uh, the entire Silicon Valley-
- TFTim Ferriss
I'm not saying I believe that. I'm just-
- BGBill Gurley
No, I know, I know. I just... I've lived in a world where if someone comes into our office and talks about patents, we roll our eyes because none of the types of businesses that we've backed at Benchmark in Silicon Valley are ever about patents. Elon has famously open sourced all his Tesla patents. Like, it's such a bold thing to do and so gracious, I think, really to society. But you- His point is, oddly, I was talking to Ted Cruz about this, and he said, "Yeah, Elon thinks the same thing." Like, he views the, the edge of competition is how fast are you moving, how great are your products, do consumers love them, not can I defend them in a court of law? Like, it's just-
- 1:56:06 – 1:57:54
Stablecoins putting Visa and Mastercard on notice.
- BGBill Gurley
The long kind of prevalence of Visa and Mastercard is just ridiculous, two and a half percent. And stablecoins have so much momentum right now. I think those two companies are gonna be in real trouble within a five-year window. Most of the financial problems are pure regulatory capture.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, the reason that there's a problem.
- TFTim Ferriss
Tell me if I'm explaining this well. I... 'Cause I'm not sure we said it this directly, but basically the incumbents help to write laws and regulations that favor them and prevent newcomers from competing effectively.
- BGBill Gurley
After '08, we wrote this thing, Dodd-Frank, and we thought, "Oh, we're gonna, like, make things better," and all you've had is consolidation in banking since then.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
And if you look at the offering, especially at the low end for the poorest citizens of the US, free checking went away. The poor people have a hard time paying their bills, so they don't even have the tools to do it because free checking went away. Free checking went away after Dodd-Frank.
- TFTim Ferriss
Please push back if I'm oversimplifying this, but regulatory capture is not just bad for startups in Silicon Valley who hope to grow and disrupt and fill in the blank. It's, it's also bad for everybody.
- BGBill Gurley
Oh, it's horrible for consumers. I mean, the, the US healthcare situation, which seems to be getting worse on a daily basis, is a huge example of regulatory capture. Somewhere in the past 10 years, they just told physicians they can't run hospitals. They just eliminated... I mean, who other than a doctor is gonna go start a new hospital? Like, [laughs] the amount of competition you eliminated in this one swoop is enormous.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah.
- BGBill Gurley
Just enormous. Now, that's just a single example, but there's hundreds of them in that, in that area.
- 1:57:54 – 2:00:26
Hopes for Runnin’ Down a Dream and parting thoughts.
- TFTim Ferriss
What would success be for this book? Six, six months after it comes out, what will lead you to have been happy with putting the time in? It's taken a while.
- BGBill Gurley
Yeah.
- TFTim Ferriss
Right? It's taken a lot of work. What do you hope the outcome will be?
- BGBill Gurley
It really started as a passion project, and I, I have no financial goals for it whatsoever. In fact, as we get to book launch, I'm gonna launch a foundation that gives grants to people who want to chase their dream job but don't have the financial wherewithal to do it.
- TFTim Ferriss
Mm-hmm.
- BGBill Gurley
And so I'm gonna start working on that in addition to P3. For me, it's all about how many people do I affect in the way that McConaughey's dad did or that this book did for Seinfeld. Some of them saw the talk on YouTube from the UT presentation that I gave and have already reached out and said thank you, and they've shared how it changed their life, but the more people I can do that for, I would just be tickled pink. I'd just be so excited because I think when people get out of this pragmatic lane and go do these types of things, they, they tend to be unusually successful, which I think then has a bigger impact than just on them themselves.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah, for sure.
- BGBill Gurley
Like, the number of h- humans positively impacted by Danny Meyer's success is in the thousands, I'm certain, and I'm not counting customers of Shake Shack. [laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
[laughs] So people, check it out. I mean, I love your writing, Bill. You're not just a commentator, right? You've been an operator. You've observed a lot of operators, studied outliers, and people who've chosen X instead of A, B, or C. The book is Runnin' Down a Dream: How to Thrive in a Career You Actually Love. Check it out, folks. People can find you on X, @bgurley, of course. If they wanna see just a landing page, they can go to benchmark.com. [laughs]
- BGBill Gurley
[laughs]
- TFTim Ferriss
Anywhere else you'd like to point people or anything else you'd like to mention before we start to land the plane?
- BGBill Gurley
No, I'm good. Thank you so much for your time.
- TFTim Ferriss
Yeah. Thanks, Bill. And for everybody watching and listening, we will have a link to everything we mentioned. We mentioned a lot of things and a lot of references and resources. Just go to tim.blog/podcast. You can check all that out. And until next time, as always, be a bit kinder than is necessary to others and to yourself. But look for X when people give you A, B, or C or when you think you're limited to A, B, and C. Till next time, thanks for tuning in
Episode duration: 2:00:37
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