What Now? With Trevor NoahEddie Fishman: What is Actually Happening in Iran?
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
120 min read · 24,451 words- 0:00 – 0:48
Introduction & The Nuclear Paradox
- EFEddie Fishman
[upbeat music] This is one of the, I think, honestly tragic lessons of recent history is, you know, the countries that have given up nuclear weapons or that have developed some parts of a nuclear program but then didn't cross the threshold have actually fared a lot worse than the countries that have developed nuclear weapons. Right? I mean, this is-
- TNTrevor Noah
Damn, Eddie
- EFEddie Fishman
It's bad
- TNTrevor Noah
That's a crazy paradox when you think about it.
- EUEugene
Mm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. I think there's an incentive. I mean, if you look at Gaddafi, right? I mean, the, the Libyans-
- TNTrevor Noah
That's a crazy paradox when you think about it
- EUEugene
Mm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Everyone who didn't get a nuke
- EUEugene
Look what happened to them.
- TNTrevor Noah
Look what happened. But you don't want them to get a nuke, but if you don't get a nuke-
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
You might wanna get a nuke, Eugene. It-
- EFEddie Fishman
Just go on LinkedIn, man. [laughs]
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs] [upbeat music]
- 0:48 – 3:33
NYC Life with Eddie Fishman
- TNTrevor Noah
This is What Now? With Trevor Noah. [upbeat music]
- EFEddie Fishman
A little bit. Um, like, you know, g- go shopping for my kids.
- TNTrevor Noah
You go shopping for your kids?
- EFEddie Fishman
In Soho, yeah. My wife has, like, this... There's this, like, kids store there that we like, we walk to.
- TNTrevor Noah
You g- you guys go together?
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Your children believe in ch- in closed democracy.
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs] My, my, my wife likes to dress my, my kids in fashionable New York clothes, so we go to a place in Soho.
- TNTrevor Noah
Wait, it's called the-
- EFEddie Fishman
I think it's called the Makie. M-A-K-I-E.
- TNTrevor Noah
And your kids choose what they like?
- EFEddie Fishman
No, no, no, no, no.
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, the daugh- [laughs] That's what-
- EFEddie Fishman
They don't, they don't get to choose
- TNTrevor Noah
... that's what I meant. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs] There's no choice.
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, so they don't get to choose?
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- EUEugene
Right.
- EFEddie Fishman
But it's hilarious, though. My, my kids look, like, very hip, like, you know, Manhattan. Two, a two-year- and four-year-old.
- TNTrevor Noah
That's so cool.
- EFEddie Fishman
My wife is really into that.
- TNTrevor Noah
She likes dressing them up like, yeah, nah.
- EFEddie Fishman
I guess, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
You know when-
- EFEddie Fishman
It's interesting
- TNTrevor Noah
... when, when wives dress kids up, you're off the hook.
- EFEddie Fishman
That's true, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
'Cause she doesn't touch your fashion anymore.
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- 3:33 – 4:33
About Eddie: Sanctions & the State Department
- TNTrevor Noah
You can ... Oh, we're recording. We all good?
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
All right. Let's do it. Eddie Fishman, welcome.
- EFEddie Fishman
Good to see you.
- TNTrevor Noah
Welcome to the podcast.
- EUEugene
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
And welcome at the best possible time to have you on, because I've asked around, and there are a few names that come up more when you, when you request the services of somebody who is adept at understanding statecraft, I believe it's called.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Uh, sanctions, uh, b- borders, geopolitical, uh, skirmishes. You worked for the State Department, that's correct?
- EFEddie Fishman
That's right, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right? Uh, you were instrumental in, like, I guess, like, guiding some of the policy around, like, ch- like, the, the US's sanctions between China and Russia. So I mean, I'm, I'm sitting next to the perfect person to ask, and because I don't, like ... Not that I don't trust the internet anymore. I just don't know what to search for these days. It's easier for me to ask an actual expert in person.
- EUEugene
I thought you were gonna say 'cause the internet searches for you instead.
- TNTrevor Noah
No, it d-
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
No, I don't know what to search for these days.
- EUEugene
'Cause you think of a dog, next thing you see dog
- 4:33 – 7:43
What Is Actually Happening with Iran?
- EUEugene
ads.
- TNTrevor Noah
You're not wrong.
- EUEugene
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
You're not wrong. But everyone has the same question, so I'm gonna ask it on behalf of many of us. W- what is actually happening in Iran?
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. It's a great question.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, look, uh, I started my career motivated by trying to come up with a solution to Iran's nuclear program that didn't involve fighting another war in the Middle East. Um, that's why I, I honestly joined the government after I graduated college. Uh, Iran was building a nuclear program. The US was fighting a war in Afghanistan, another one in Iraq, and both of them were going terribly.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And I thought to myself, there has to be a better way to try to non-violently coerce countries that are trying to do things that we don't want them to do.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Like seek nuclear weapons or support terrorist groups, to stop them from doing that. And that had been the US policy for a long time, right? That's what George W. Bush wanted to do in his second term. It's what Barack Obama did, and famously, uh, with the Iran nuclear deal. Look, I think Donald Trump in 2018, during his first term, he made a gamble. He's, he, he said, "If only we'd imposed more sanctions on Iran, if we imp- put them in more economic pain-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... I could get a deal that was even better than what Obama did."
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Right? And he tried that through this so-called maximum pressure strategy, and it failed. You know, by the time he came back, uh, in his second term, so, you know, last year, Iran had enough nuclear material to build 10 bombs, which is way more than they ever had, you know, before, uh, you know, before we actually had that deal in 2015. And so I think Trump Was sort of confronting with this, confront- confronting this massive failure, which was he had tried maximum pressure to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. It hadn't worked, and so he could have theoretically tried a different approach, maybe pivoted to something more like what Obama did with diplomacy.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
But instead of changing his goals, he changed his means. He escalated from the use of economic warfare through sanctions and economic pressure to the use of military force, and I think, uh, we're now seeing why every president before him had been hesitant to attack Iran.
- TNTrevor Noah
So, so here's, here's what I hope we get to, um, in this conversation. I, I, I think, one, I'd love us to all be able to actually understand what's going on, not on the ground, but, like, you know, behind closed doors with Iran and the US.
- EFEddie Fishman
Sure.
- TNTrevor Noah
Uh, two, I would love for us to all understand why you, I guess, sort of shouldn't mess with Iran lightly, right?
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Uh, three, I would like us to even understand who sets the rules around who should and shouldn't have things, whether it's nuclear weapons, or who decides where borders should or shouldn't be enforced, or how you get to enforce that, um, what attack is, what defense is, and then understanding where America exists in the world now as it pertains to China and Russia, who seem like the other major state players. So let's, let's work from where we are now, right? E- everything you laid out makes sense to me, but I'm just gonna ask, like, the, the, the dumb question that, that lingers in my head, and that is why is America so opposed to Iran building up ur- enriched ur- uranium? And, and I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll say the ... I'll ask the full question.
- EFEddie Fishman
Sure.
- TNTrevor Noah
Why is
- 7:43 – 9:28
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Explained
- TNTrevor Noah
America so opposed to it when Iran has constantly said, "We're not trying to make a nuclear weapon."
- EFEddie Fishman
Sure.
- TNTrevor Noah
"We just want enriched uranium because we have many other uses for it. We can use it for power plants. We can use it, you know, for our energy needs as other countries have." So explain, explain that part to me.
- EFEddie Fishman
Sure. So look, there is this thing called the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. I think it was first agreed to in the 1960s, and basically it, it regulates which countries can and can't have certain nuclear material.
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay.
- EFEddie Fishman
And basically, the bargain is there, there are a few countries that legally can have nuclear weapons, right? The United States, China, Russia, the UK, and France.
- TNTrevor Noah
Why?
- EFEddie Fishman
It's, you know, basically who was the most powerful countries after World War II and were able to sort of make themselves permanent members of the UN Security Council.
- TNTrevor Noah
That's a great gig.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
We should decide, Eugene, who between us gets to own a gun. I'm gonna vote for me. [laughs]
- EUEugene
I was gonna go more for Africom. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EUEugene
You know that. We got to Canada.
- TNTrevor Noah
Ooh, man.
- EFEddie Fishman
But look, I mean-
- EUEugene
Make it non-proliferate
- EFEddie Fishman
... yeah, I mean, I do, I do think there's something, you know, there, which is, you know, at the sort of peak of the power of these countries.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
They sort of traded in some of that power-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm
- EFEddie Fishman
... um, in exchange to sort of, uh, you know, uh, legitimize their access to these, these weapons.
- TNTrevor Noah
So they, so they made a deal with the rest of the world-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yes
- TNTrevor Noah
... or with themselves?
- EFEddie Fishman
And what the ... with the rest of the world.
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay, okay.
- EFEddie Fishman
So the vast majority of countries have signed on to this.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes.
- EFEddie Fishman
And, and the bargain that they make is that they will not pursue nuclear weapons, but in exchange, they do have access to nuclear fuel, nuclear material, so that they can have nuclear power.
- 9:28 – 14:34
Why the World Fears Iran's Nuclear Program
- EFEddie Fishman
you know, as part of the, you know, being a signatory, you're inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Routinely, Iran lied about what they were doing. They were enriching uranium to levels that exceeded what they were allowed to do under the-
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, okay
- EFEddie Fishman
... Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. They're, um ... They had done, uh, research on actually cr- uh, producing nuclear weapons in the '90s. Uh, they had, uh, former Soviet scientists, by the way, who were probably, you know, uh, looking for a job after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
- TNTrevor Noah
As many of them were.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yes, exactly, who said, "Hey, I have something that, uh, one really good marketable skill."
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes.
- EFEddie Fishman
"Uh, and I can sell that to Iran."
- TNTrevor Noah
"I will put my profile on LinkedIn, and maybe somebody can hire me."
- EUEugene
You're hired.
- TNTrevor Noah
That's what, that's what one of them said. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs] Yeah, it's like, uh, you know, looking for work on LinkedIn.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes. [laughs]
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
"He, he has experience working with extremely volatile materials."
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
"Will not mention which one." Wink, wink. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
It was a great business. I mean, it's how Nor- uh, North Korea also built up, uh, their nuclear program. Um-
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, so this was ... So basically, everyone who is sort of persona non grata in the geopolitical world, they got their scientists from Russia really, often.
- EFEddie Fishman
Oh, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, it's, like, uh, one of their main exports pretty much.
- TNTrevor Noah
You guys got your scientists for NASA from Germany.
- EFEddie Fishman
Oh, yeah, the US, yeah, exactly. Right? I mean-
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, I didn't know that
- EFEddie Fishman
... von Braun.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Von Braun, and then, and then of course, I mean, Einstein, you know, Oppenhei- Oppenheimer, a lot of those guys-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... were Jews who i- ironically, you know, the Nazis didn't like the Jews, and so they went to the US-
- TNTrevor Noah
They escaped to the-
- 14:34 – 17:51
Fear vs. Legitimate Concern: A Post-9/11 World
- EFEddie Fishman
usually go over well. They're like, "What the hell are you doing here, uh, in my..."
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
And so what helped us in those days was to say, "Look, I'm just here because the UN, including your own country, has said-"
- TNTrevor Noah
It's a good chance.
- EFEddie Fishman
"... that Iran shouldn't have a nuclear weapon."
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes.
- EFEddie Fishman
"And guess what? Their oil sales are directly funding their nuclear program, so I'm just here to help you comply with your international obligations." And that may sound like, you know, glib or something like that, but it actually worked. And it made this ... It made it much more likely for the o- person on the other side of the table to be like, "Look, we are being pressured by the US, but-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm
- EFEddie Fishman
... but truly, like, this is accurate." Um, it's a lot different if I just said that, like, "Look, the whole international community disagrees with me."
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
"We shouldn't be doing this."
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
"But still, um, you should stop doing business with Iran because I told you so," which is, by the way, that has been what Trump has tried to do, uh, with a lot of different countries in recent years, saying like, "If you don't do X or Y, I'm just gonna wall up your economy with tariffs or sanctions."
- TNTrevor Noah
But there's no-
- EFEddie Fishman
And, and there's no sort of-
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay
- EFEddie Fishman
... uh, legitimization that helps it go down easier, which also means, um, not only is it, is it like a, a more awkward conversation, but like from a very practical, like self-interested perspective, that person on the other side of the table is way less likely to do what you want them to do.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
I mean, it's how ... It's the same in, in, in, like, human relations, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
If you try to, you know, persuade, uh, your kid to do something that they don't wanna do, um, they're much more likely to go along with it if they think that it's just. Uh-
- TNTrevor Noah
And end up homeless
- EFEddie Fishman
... you're, you're on the side of justice. What?
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs] They might just end up homeless is what-
- EFEddie Fishman
That's true
- TNTrevor Noah
... they're saying.
- EFEddie Fishman
Or you kick them out. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
That's my petrodollar.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
That's my- [laughs]
- 17:51 – 23:04
North Korea Has Nukes — So What?
- EFEddie Fishman
World Trade Center. Like, they would have like a, a bomb laced-
- TNTrevor Noah
They send a bomb
- EFEddie Fishman
... with enriched uranium.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EUEugene
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, and it was a legitimate fear, right? Because Iran was hyper-charging its nuclear program and supporting these terrorist groups.
- TNTrevor Noah
Well, this, this is ... Okay, this is an interesting question that I have actually then is-
- EFEddie Fishman
I like your phrasing. Was it a legitimate concern or was it a legitimate fear? 'Cause sometimes a fear can be legitimate because you have a fear- Mm-hmm ... and I can say that is a legitimate fear. Mm-hmm. But was the concern actually, like, legitimate? As in, was this based on something that could happen, or was it based on the idea that something could happen? Yeah. Which I know seems like semantics, but, but you understand what I'm saying. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Sometimes people are afraid of something. Okay, here's an example. In America, people are terrified that their kids are gonna get kidnapped. Yeah. I- it just became a campaign in the United States at some point. Kids were going missing. They were on milk cartons. Mm. But as a percentage of the population- I've never understood that milk carton thing, but anyway. Yeah, but as a percentage of the population, it was huge, right? Mm. I, I mean, it was small. It was tiny. It was insignificant, not to the parents of those children- Yes, yes ... and not to their communities, but in terms of how it made people feel, they started writing laws that said your kid could not go unattended at a park. They couldn't, like, walk home. If your child is found, like, by themselves, they'll take the child, sometimes away from the parents, but they created such a mass hysteria that now they've undermined the very existence of childhood- Yes ... in my opinion, right? Yes. And the freedoms of it. The fear was real. Mm-hmm. But the thing that the fear was based on wasn't necessarily as real as people thought it was. So in that, was, was it a real issue, or was the fear the thing that people were focusing on? Yeah. I mean, I think it was a, a real issue, just given the stakes, right? Um, and given that 9/11 did happen, right? It had just happened. Yeah, like- Okay ... so we had just experienced a ter- a massive, I mean, coordinated terrorist attack, you know, four planes that were hijacked. No, shook the world. Yeah. Yeah, right. So I do think it was legitimate. Um, and this is one thing that I'm conflicted about. It's also why I think, um, hon- honestly evaluating foreign policy is so difficult, is that you don't know the counterfactual, right? You don't know, like, well, what, what would have happened if we had not done this? Yes. Right? And so, like, if you look at the- Interesting ... track record of US policy since 9/11, I would say most people, including myself, would say we, like, over, we exaggerated the impact, like, how big of a threat terrorism was. We, like, were scarred by 9/11. It did take away a lot of our freedoms. You know, I remember, uh, as a kid, uh, you know, uh, one, the first time I flew alone, uh, my mom and dad taking me through security- Pulling you to the side ... and, like, dropping me out off at the gate. Yeah, yeah. And so, like, we have lost a lot of our, of our freedoms. Yes. Yeah. Um, at the same time, we have not had another 9/11 scale terrorist attack in the United States, and so it's, it's, I'm j- so I'm just being honest. Like, I'm genuinely conflicted on this- Yeah, yeah ... because, like, is this because- Because you don't know ... of government policy? And if you look at Europe, for instance, like, there have been these massive terrorist attacks, right? Yeah. I mean, if you remember in the 2010s in Paris. The Paris- The Bataclan ... Paris was a huge one. And, yeah. Yeah, that night in Paris. Charlie Hebdo and, um- Mm-hmm ... and there were on- ones in Brussels, you know, so, um, yeah. Yeah. It, it, it, it really becomes difficult because on the one hand, you wanna live in a world where you don't allow isolated incidents to define how you live your daily life. Right. But on the other hand, you can't ignore them as if they never happened. Mm-hmm. Do, do you know what I mean? Yeah. So, like, you're in this weird place of, like, how, how much do you preemptively act, and how much do you not, and how much ... So it feels like America's in this place where it's going, "We do not wanna get to the place where we have to think about preemptively acting or not acting when it comes to uranium or nuclear weapons with Iran." That's right. That's it. That's, that's essentially where it is. Just as a, as a side note, does North Korea have nuclear weapons? Yeah, they've got a full suite of nuclear weapons. Oh, okay, but this is interesting. So if they have nuclear weapons, wh- wh- what are they doing with them? Yeah. I mean, they ... So far, they've not used them, right? Uh, thankfully. Uh, I think that they feel like they have a sense of impunity. Uh, so there's a fear that they could launch some sort of preemptive attack on South Korea. I know South Koreans are generally worried about that. Yeah. All the time. All the time. Um- Yeah ... I don't know if you guys have been there recently, but it's a, you know ... Uh, Seoul is within, you know, uh, within range of a lot of the artillery- Right, you can just kinda- ... and whatnot from, uh, from North Korea. So, so far the answer is they haven't used them, but there is a fear that it could embolden, uh, North Korea over time to act aggressively. So I think that's the other, the other part that's maybe a little bit n- more nuanced is even if an Iran or North Korea isn't going to use nuclear weapons, do they feel that by virtue of having nuclear weapons, that they can actually push the envelope a lot more below the use of nuclear weapons? Right. Right? So maybe North Korea wouldn't use a nuke against South Korea, but would they feel emboldened to attack South Korea? Um- Because they have a nuke. Because they have a nuke. Right. And, and, like, this is one of the, I think, honestly tragic lessons of recent history is, you know, the countries that have given up nuclear weapons or that have developed some parts of a nuclear program but then didn't cross the threshold have actually fared a lot worse than the countries that have developed nuclear weapons, right? I mean, this is- Damn, Eddie. It's bad. That's a crazy paradox when you think about it. Mm. Yeah. I think there's an incentive. I mean, if you look at Gaddafi, right? I mean, the, the Libyans- That's a crazy paradox when
- 23:04 – 27:32
Nuclear Accidents & The Man Who Saved the World
- EFEddie Fishman
you think about it. Mm. Yeah. Everyone who didn't get a nuke, look what happened to them. Look what happened. But you don't want them to get a nuke, but if you don't get a nuke- [laughs] You might wanna get a nuke, Eugene. It- Just go on LinkedIn, man. [laughs] Yeah, but you see, I ... This is what, this is- [laughs] So this is what, this is what I love about- I love this. Okay. No, but, but, but Eddie, this is what I like about your br- Eddie ... your brain and the way you, and the way you think and the way you write and the way you- [laughs] I can't believe you did that to me. [laughs] That was funny. [laughs] No, you, y- Oh ... so I think what I've, what I've always enjoyed about your work is that you grapple. Yeah. Right? Grappling is, is, is necessary whenever, whenever it comes to issues of state or anything large because it's not simple. Mm-hmm. We wanna act like it's simple, but it's really not simple. Because what you just said is the ultimate paradox. We would ... Many people would argue that we don't want other countries to have nuclear weapons, let's say, right? We don't want more nuclear weapons out there, but we also cannot deny all the countries that have the nuclear weapons- That don't have. Mm-hmm ... seem like they're living- Easy target ... a more chilled life- Yeah ... you know, if you have the nuke- Yeah ... versus if you don't. Yeah. And then the ones who have it aren't, also aren't using it.
- TNTrevor Noah
So if you're working in the State Department and you're looking at this information, at what point does the paradigm shift, or does it ever shift? Like, do you have to game these things out and ask yourself if the idea you're working from is correct or incorrect?
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. It's a good ... I mean, it's a fair question, and there are ... I mean, it's an extremely, um, heretical opinion. There are some scholars who believe that nuclear proliferation isn't actually as bad of a thing because, um, it creates more stability, right? I mean, we, we used to in the US talk about trying to do regime change in North Korea. We don't really talk about that anymore, right? I mean, there, there's a reason Iran was attacked.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
But North Korea wasn't, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, and so I think my own view on that is that nuclear proliferation is very dangerous. I mean, if you look even at the history of nuclear incidents when there's only a very small handful of countries that have nuclear weapons, we've come very close to accidental nuclear war-
- TNTrevor Noah
Right
- EFEddie Fishman
... on a number of occasions.
- TNTrevor Noah
Really?
- EFEddie Fishman
Like ... Oh, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
When?
- EFEddie Fishman
In the '80s. Uh, you know, uh, ev- I think even in the '90s during the Clinton administration, um, there was ... Uh, it was actually after the end of the, the Soviet Union. I think it was-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm
- EFEddie Fishman
... um, you know, Russia during the Yeltsin period. Their, their radars picked up that, uh, uh, there was an ICBM incoming.
- TNTrevor Noah
The flight coming over the North Pole.
- EFEddie Fishman
Right.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right? And then-
- EFEddie Fishman
And I, and I think, thank- he thankfully Yeltsin was like, "This doesn't make any sense."
- TNTrevor Noah
No, it wasn't Yeltsin actually.
- EFEddie Fishman
Like, why would-
- TNTrevor Noah
It was-
- EFEddie Fishman
It was not?
- TNTrevor Noah
It was crazy.
- EUEugene
Gorbachev.
- TNTrevor Noah
No, it wasn't anyone in leadership.
- EFEddie Fishman
Who was it?
- TNTrevor Noah
It was one man who was tasked with doing the thing.
- EUEugene
Oh, pressing the button.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yo, the, the-
- 27:32 – 33:32
Stanislav Petrov: The Unsung Hero
- EUEugene
he did.
- EFEddie Fishman
Man, give that guy the Nobel, Nobel Peace Prize.
- TNTrevor Noah
He should get it.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yes.
- EUEugene
Absolutely.
- TNTrevor Noah
He should, but then they, they didn't punish him to the full extent.
- EUEugene
For disobeying an order, obviously. Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, but they dis- they disappeared him, and he's like a, he's like a folk hero in Russia, but they just disappeared him, but not like to a gulag. He just ... They were like, "You just go away. Thank you, but go away."
- EFEddie Fishman
Wow. Like a witness protection program.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, in a way.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
In a way.
- EFEddie Fishman
That's wild.
- TNTrevor Noah
But I didn't know there was, like, multiple times.
- EFEddie Fishman
Oh, yeah. But I mean, to, to, to, like, that whole story, like, imagine ... And that's only when you have two countries that have large nuclear arsenals.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right.
- EFEddie Fishman
By the way, China now is in the process of making that three countries. But then imagine if that was 10 countries or 20, right? I mean, the, just, uh, the, the risk goes up exponentially the more players you have in this, in this really awful game.
- EUEugene
When did the world ever become scared of the damage that a nuclear bomb can do? Was it Hiroshima where people ... Do you think Hiroshima was actually a demonstration-
- EFEddie Fishman
Oh, yeah
- EUEugene
... of what these weapons can be? You think it was necessary for it to happen for people to go, "These things are real"? Because I think had that not happened, we would think maybe this is not real.
- EFEddie Fishman
I'm, I'm with you, by the way, and I think this is another sort of broad lesson of statecraft. I was mentioning one is sort of, uh, counterfactuals are important.
- EUEugene
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And you have to ask yourself, like, honestly, like, "What would have happened had we not done X?"
- EUEugene
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Right? Another one is, you know, uh, unfortunately, for weapons to be taken seriously, oftentimes they have to be used. Um, you make the, um, example of Hiroshima, uh, and Nagasaki, which for sure, I mean, you would not ... I mean, I don't think anyone believed, uh, the power of these weapons. They were ... You know, it was a very closely guarded US national-
- EUEugene
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... secret before, uh, these attacks. I think this is actually relevant for today, too, because, you know, the Strait of Hormuz, right?
- EUEugene
Mm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, even going back to when I was, uh, in government, whenever you would sort of war game what happens, uh, with a war against, uh, Iran, you'd be worried that they would close the Strait of Hormuz. Wouldn't this be so bad for-
- TNTrevor Noah
That was in the war games?
- 33:32 – 37:44
Economic Warfare & Choke Points
- EUEugene
in Miami. Now he's going, "Ah."
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EUEugene
[laughs] "They have to find a new cosmos." [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EUEugene
This domino effect, or is it just a myth, Eddie, that if one country launches, another one launches, another one will launch, another one launch, and there won't be life on Earth?
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, yeah, I mean, I, I think that it's more relevant in terms of, like, the US and Russia, just 'cause we have these massive arsenals, that there's this concern that once... If the, if Russia were to think that there were incoming nuclear ICBMs, if they didn't strike back before those ICBMs landed-
- TNTrevor Noah
ICBM is intercontinental ballistic missile, right?
- EFEddie Fishman
Exactly.
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, so these are missiles that, you know, within 15, 20 minutes can go-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes
- EFEddie Fishman
... from the US to a target in Russia.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes. As we call them in South Africa, express missiles, not local or station missiles.
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
These are long distance missiles. For New Yorkers, it's also the same thing on the subway.
- EFEddie Fishman
It's express line.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, there's express missiles, and then there's-
- EUEugene
You don't wanna be on the express line by mistake
- TNTrevor Noah
... one-stop missiles. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. I mean, I, I think the concern is that if you didn't strike back-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... and it was a big enough strike, it could wipe out your ability to retaliate.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And so, um, yeah. I mean, the, the o- the, the whole thing is confounded now too because you also have nuclear submarines, so you've got these guys on, uh, on subs that theoretically, even if your entire country was destroyed-
- TNTrevor Noah
And they're s-
- EFEddie Fishman
... they could fire back
- TNTrevor Noah
... they're constantly just circling the globe, right?
- EFEddie Fishman
Exactly.
- 37:44 – 42:19
The Petrodollar Explained
- TNTrevor Noah
buying oil using the yuan." What do you think people misunderstand about the petrodollar?
- EFEddie Fishman
So the petrodollar is just sort of one part of the broader dollar system. I mean, it's an important part, because if you just think about what a currency is, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
It's used for payments, it's used for prices.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Or we call it unit of account, like if I'm gonna sell you something, what price am I gonna do it in? And it's also used for investments.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Right? When you think about payments, uh, you know, something like 15% of global trade is just oil. It's by far the most traded-
- TNTrevor Noah
Commodity
- EFEddie Fishman
... good in the world.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah. Wow.
- EFEddie Fishman
I mean, you just come out, I mean, the most traded thing.
- TNTrevor Noah
Good.
- EFEddie Fishman
Right, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Jeez.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, I mean, it's, it's wild when you think about the scale. The fact that, you know, the most traded good in the world is priced in dollars and largely paid for in dollars-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm
- EFEddie Fishman
... means that there's more demand for dollars around the world. Um, it's not the only factor about why the dollar is such an important currency. I mean, I think arguably now just as important is the fact that, you know, our stock market in the US is something like 80% of global equity market capitalization.
- TNTrevor Noah
What?
- EFEddie Fishman
So if you add up all the stock markets of the world, like US stock market is 80%-
- TNTrevor Noah
The US is 80%.
- EFEddie Fishman
Oh, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Man.
- EFEddie Fishman
I mean, I mean, you've got, you know, a couple companies in the US that are bigger than most other countries' stock markets.
- TNTrevor Noah
Damn, I didn't know it was that big, though.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. Um, so I mean, and our bond market's the biggest. So generally, if you, no matter where you are in the world, if you're generating wealth, uh, if you're a country, if you're an individual, if you're a company, you're, you're generally investing it in the US.
- TNTrevor Noah
The US, yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
But, but look, what this all boils down to is that when money crosses borders-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... and the, the sort of the best metric we have for that is what's called foreign exchange transactions. It's when you take one currency and exchange it for another. By far the biggest sort of market of them all, $7 trillion a day just gets swapped in foreign exchange markets. 90% of those transactions have the dollar on one side of, or the other.
- 42:19 – 45:40
How the US Used the Dollar as a Weapon Against Iran
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... so 2006. This guy, Stuart Levey, was reappointed by Obama. Sort of quaint in, uh, 2026 America that a Republican-
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
... uh, would stay on into a Democratic-
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, the good old days
- EFEddie Fishman
... administration. Yeah, exactly. And, and he pursued that strategy, handed it off to his successors in the Obama administration, and that was the key to getting the Iran nuclear deal, right? It was putting Iran under-
- TNTrevor Noah
Wow
- EFEddie Fishman
... financial and economic pressure-
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay
- EFEddie Fishman
... that then got them to the table to, for the 2015 deal. And, you know, I think Trump Didn't ... It wasn't that he thought that the economic pressure wasn't working, it was that he thought if you only put more pressure on Iran you would get an even better deal.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right.
- EFEddie Fishman
Didn't work, and so he tried, he tried to use military force instead. I think the irony of the current situation though is that what Iran is doing is they're basically taking a leaf from the US playbook. They're saying, "Well, hold on. The US has used its key choke point, which is the dollar, to try to pressure us."
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh.
- EFEddie Fishman
"And so the way for us to fight back is to say, 'Well, what ch- what choke point do we have?' We have the Strait of Hormuz-"
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... the most important energy choke point in the world. 20% of global oil flow through this narrow waterway every day.
- TNTrevor Noah
And that's, that's just oil. We're not even talking about sulfur.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Like-
- EFEddie Fishman
Helium
- TNTrevor Noah
... yeah, all the things that you need to-
- EFEddie Fishman
Aluminum
- TNTrevor Noah
... grow crops around the world. We're talking about two-
- EFEddie Fishman
Fertilizers and-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, fertilizers and, I mean, they really, they're ... Are, are they in a more powerful position than the world thought?
- EFEddie Fishman
Much more. Yeah. I mean, I think that's one of the, like, what, but what we're seeing right now coming out of the war is that Iran may emerge from this war decimated militarily and economically, but strengthened strategically. Because they've shown the world that they can use this choke point to incredible effect.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
And something I, you know, uh, it used to be that the US could, you know, uh, like I said, I used to go to places like Singapore and, uh, Japan, and you said, "Well, look, if you keep doing business with, with Iran, we'll cut you off from the dollar."
- TNTrevor Noah
Right.
- EFEddie Fishman
Well, now what happens if Iran says to the Japanese, "Well, if unless you lift your sanctions on us, we won't allow your ships to go through the-"
- 45:40 – 49:17
Iran's Counter-Move: The Strait of Hormuz
- EUEugene
is a serious issue here.
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EUEugene
We've used words-
- TNTrevor Noah
No
- EUEugene
... like embargo.
- TNTrevor Noah
No, we have, but I'm saying-
- EUEugene
And inflation. Yeah, yeah, yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... okay, so, so hear me out. Hear me out on this.
- EUEugene
You're going hard here.
- TNTrevor Noah
Hear, hear me out on this. Hear me out on this.
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
This could be a very naive perspective and a very naive point of view.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
But it seems like we live in a world where there is, for the most part, mutually assured destruction now. You cannot just blow everything up everywhere. I mean, even looking at Russia and Ukraine.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
For all intents and purposes, Russia could blow up Ukraine, right?
- EFEddie Fishman
I mean, they could use a nuclear weapon, sure.
- TNTrevor Noah
That's what I mean.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
So they have nukes. They're not using the nukes. They could also blow up all of Ukraine, technically.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
They have the capability.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
But they do not do it.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Uh, do you know why they do not do it?
- EFEddie Fishman
I think it would be the fastest way to u- unify the entire world-
- TNTrevor Noah
The world against them
- EFEddie Fishman
... against them.
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay. So-
- 49:17 – 55:03
The New Age of Economic Warfare
- EUEugene
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
But before you go on.
- EUEugene
Yeah, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
I wanna know about these countries who are illegally developing nukes.
- EUEugene
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Can you explain this to me? Like, how did that happen?
- EFEddie Fishman
I mean, a lot of countries have sought to illegally develop nukes, including Iran, right? Um, the question is-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, but okay, but now they-
- EFEddie Fishman
... how they've been able to be stopped. I mean, there are, they-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, but Eddie, you've, you've confused me here, Eddie
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... forgive me, forgive me. Uh, you know, I, I play video games and I tell jokes.
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
So Eddie, you're, you've thrown my brain-
- EFEddie Fishman
You're underselling yourself, man
- TNTrevor Noah
... you've, you've thrown me-
- EUEugene
Tell us about, uh, what's his name? Petrov or something? [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
What the hell about Petrov?
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
Stanislav. Stanislav.
- EFEddie Fishman
Stanislav.
- TNTrevor Noah
So, so-
- EUEugene
Thought it was Petrov at first
- TNTrevor Noah
... so, so this is-
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay, you, you, you've confused me here. You've confused me.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um-
- 55:03 – 1:01:00
Why Does America Always Choose Force?
- EFEddie Fishman
I've seen some people. Some people-
- TNTrevor Noah
They dispense
- EFEddie Fishman
... some people, some people fart.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
I've seen some people.
- TNTrevor Noah
And then the first person to go-
- EFEddie Fishman
And they're the ones to go, "Hmm, what is that?" And then other people go, "Aah," and then they act like-
- TNTrevor Noah
Ah. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
That's the oldest trick in the book.
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
It's the oldest trick in the book. I'm sure there's even-
- TNTrevor Noah
Ah
- EFEddie Fishman
... I'm sure in history somewhere, people have done this on a, on a state level. What you do is you have a nuclear incident-
- TNTrevor Noah
Right
- EFEddie Fishman
... or you have something that goes wrong with-
- TNTrevor Noah
Right
- EFEddie Fishman
... like, a chemical weapon.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And then what you do is you go, "Uh, guys, someone released a chemical weapon. Uh, are you seeing this?" And then everyone starts-
- TNTrevor Noah
Ah
- EFEddie Fishman
... and they go like, "You were the first to discover it," but you're the ones who actually dealt it.
- TNTrevor Noah
Or you-
- EFEddie Fishman
It's a trick
- TNTrevor Noah
... were developing a virus in a lab, and then it-
- EFEddie Fishman
It's a trick. It's a trick
- TNTrevor Noah
... it leaked, and then people were dying-
- EFEddie Fishman
It's a trick
- TNTrevor Noah
... and then you're like, "What is that?"
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, it's a trick.
- TNTrevor Noah
One of them was whoever smelt it, dealt it?
- 1:01:00 – 1:01:56
Was the Iran Strike Justified?
- EFEddie Fishman
York. Um, there's a lot of, you know, the Iranian, uh, diaspora, you know, they're, they're, they're here, and I think there was a lot of hope in that community-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, a lot of people hoped for the b-
- EFEddie Fishman
... earlier this year that, you know, this could be it. You could finally get change. 'Cause I think it's important to note, like the Islamic Republic of Iran, like they're bad guys.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
You know, they killed tens of thousands of innocent protesters-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yep, yep
- EFEddie Fishman
... earlier this year. We would all be better off pr- principally Iranians if they were gone, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes.
- EFEddie Fishman
I think there was high hopes that, you know, there was change coming, um, when, uh, H- uh, Khamenei, uh, was sort of just gonna die from natural causes.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
You have an internal debate about succession.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
You might get a more liberal government. Well, guess what? The US and Israel took care of their succession problem for them.
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
Handed it over from Khamenei Sr. to Khamenei Jr.-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... who seems to be a puppet of these hardline I- IRGC, uh, generals. And so I do think that, um, it's, it seemed like Ayatollah Khamenei Sr., uh, uh, you know, uh, deceased now, did not actually want to cross the nuclear threshold.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right.
- EFEddie Fishman
But it's clear that they did wanna have the capability
- 1:01:56 – 1:02:12
Preemptive Strike vs. Defense: Where's the Line?
- EFEddie Fishman
to weaponize, and now there's an even greater incentive for them to do so. [upbeat music]
- TNTrevor Noah
Don't press anything. We've got more What Now? after this. [upbeat music]
- 1:02:12 – 1:03:13
Inside the Room: How Foreign Policy Decisions Are Made
- TNTrevor Noah
When ... You know, and I'm obviously only asking you from the US perspective 'cause you worked in the government. I'm not, I'm not-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, sure
- TNTrevor Noah
... focusing on the US, but like when a president or their trusted confidants are trying to figure out how to solve some of these most pressing issues, are there ever stories or have you ever encountered moments where a president tried to go the opposite way to the direction America seems to have always gone? So, oh, and, again, I use-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... I'm using broad language. Forgive me.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
But it seems like America's idea of how to solve an issue has often been send in the bombs-
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm
- TNTrevor Noah
... and things will get fixed. So how do we fix Saddam Hussein? We blow things up.
- EFEddie Fishman
Brute force.
- TNTrevor Noah
And it's, it's done, and it's like, oh, no, no, now you've got ISIS. And it's like, oh, okay, that's not what we wanted. And it's like, all right, how do you fix, um, Gaddafi? Okay, you blow up Libya. It's sorted, and it's like, no, now you've got like one of the worst slave trades in-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... in Africa and a, a hotboding of ex- hotbed of extremism.
- 1:03:13 – 1:04:47
The Complexity of Iran's Nuclear Intent
- TNTrevor Noah
Time and time again, it feels like, you know, even, even Iran itself, it seems like America's dealing with its previous sins in helping to oust a leader that it didn't like who, for all intents and purposes, seemed like a good leader for the people. Maybe, maybe not the most perfect leader, but way better than the leaders that came afterwards. You see what I mean? Like how do you-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... how, how ... At, at what ... Like is there ever a point where an American leader goes, "Let's try something completely different"?
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
And if they have thought that, has it worked or has it not worked?
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, I mean, there have certainly been examples. I would argue that, um, the original approach toward Iran, which was to not use military force, to use economic pressure to cut them off-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... from this choke point that is the US dollar, originated during George W. Bush's term. I think it was frankly George W. Bush being a little bit humbled after seeing what happened in Afghanistan and Iraq, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, got it, got it, got it.
- EFEddie Fishman
'Cause I think there was sort of the beginning of his term, and after 9/11 particularly, a bit of a sort of rah, rah attitude toward the use of military force.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm.
- EFEddie Fishman
You know, the US kind of felt omnipotent. And then it became pretty clear after a couple years of those wars that they weren't going very well-
- TNTrevor Noah
Right
- EFEddie Fishman
... even against these quite small countries.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
And so then when a country right next to Iraq that was multiple times bigger than Iraq, more powerful than Iraq-
- TNTrevor Noah
Right
- EFEddie Fishman
... namely Iran, was actually developing, uh, you know, nuclear-
- TNTrevor Noah
Nuclear
- EFEddie Fishman
... uh, weapons that, that, you know, wasn't something that, uh, uh, Saddam Hussein even was developing, which made it even more ironic, George W. Bush did s- decide to try to use non-violent pressure against Iran.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right.
- EFEddie Fishman
That was the baton he passed to President Obama. There've been other decisions. I mean, look-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm
- EFEddie Fishman
... one of the decisions that I think Obama took the most heat, uh, over was the Syria red line. If you remember when he came out-
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, yes, when
- 1:04:47 – 1:15:45
Khamenei, Succession & Unintended Consequences
- TNTrevor Noah
he said there's a red line in the ... There's a sand-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, he said if-
- TNTrevor Noah
... there's a line in the sand
- EFEddie Fishman
... if, uh, Assad uses, uh, chemical weapons-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... um, we will, uh, attack. We will strike. And I think, um, you know, uh, basically his whole administration was gearing up, ready to bomb Syria, uh, and sort of, uh, uh, basically, uh, living up to Obama's red line.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right.
- EFEddie Fishman
And then Obama sort of went for a walk, uh, in the backyard of the White House and said, "You know what? I don't wanna do this." And so there have been moments in history when, you know, presidents have sort of chosen to go the opposite way of their advisors for good and for ill.
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And I think to your point, I mean, w- we'll see when the sort of definitive history is written on, uh, Trump's decision to attack Iran, but it does seem, uh, if you can trust, uh, some of the early reports, that Trump was sort of, uh, sort of a, a lonely voice, uh, in terms of wanting-
- TNTrevor Noah
Hm
- EFEddie Fishman
... to strike Iran in February of this year.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, and, and unfortunately his voice is the one that, that actually mattered.
- TNTrevor Noah
Ha- has there ever been a case of the US ... 'Cause you see, you, you showed us or you just described two, two possible outcomes, but they seem to be, uh, you know, completely diametrically opposed. Like one is like go in and blow the thing up or ignore it completely.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Have there been any instances where the US has tried to bring the other person in? And what I mean by this is like I'm, I'm sure you've seen this because of the, the, the world you've been in. Many people will argue that part of the reason the world has the Russia that it has today-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... is because the US did a terrible job of bringing Russia into the fold post-World War II-
- EFEddie Fishman
NATO
- TNTrevor Noah
... in and around NATO-
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm
- TNTrevor Noah
... the Cold War. The, the Americans just didn't do a good job of being like, "Hey, join us."
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
"Actually, you're part of this G..." You know what I mean? "You're part of the G20. You're part of this, so come in. Come on. You're part of this. You, you actually ... Have a McDonald's. Let's do this thing."
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
You know what I mean?
- EFEddie Fishman
So on Russia, I mean, it's something that's a issue near and dear to my heart. I actually, um, sort of was, uh, very interested in Russian history, uh, Russian literature. My, uh, great-grandparents emigrated to the United States from the former, uh, Russian Empire.
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, wow.
- EFEddie Fishman
And, you know, spent a summer, uh, when I was in college living in Russia, uh, sort of before-
- 1:15:45 – 1:22:37
Protocol vs. Personal Relationships in Diplomacy
- TNTrevor Noah
you know?
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Even things like, um, which country you phone first.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
I remember hearing many world leaders were frustrated with Biden's administration because they felt like there was no, there was no reaching out. There was no communication. There was no... And then Biden's team would say, "No, we're very, we're choosing very carefully who we will call first."
- EFEddie Fishman
Protocol.
- TNTrevor Noah
Because it's protocol, right? Which country we reach out to first. Apparently, bro, as soon as Trump came into power-
- EFEddie Fishman
WhatsApp
- TNTrevor Noah
... every country was phoned. Like, and I, when I say every country, I mean every... If you knew a country, the person, their job was just to phone someone there, and just ask someone who asks someone who asks someone who asks someone. And then you would even, like, phone Trump's phone directly. It was-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... it was in many ways chaotic. I don't deny this. But it did give us an insight into the fact that some of the ways that we do things are a little so stiff-
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm
- TNTrevor Noah
... you know?
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm
- TNTrevor Noah
... and staid that, like, it holds us back. So how do, you know what I mean? How do we find that balance between the diplomatic protocols versus new ways to w- maybe make progress with countries that we disagree with?
- EFEddie Fishman
I, I couldn't agree more. I think that, you know, I, in the process of, of writing Choke Points, I spoke to 30 or 40 people who were in the first Trump administration.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
And one thing I heard consistently was a feeling that it was actually exciting because there was a, a tolerance of risk. There was allowing people to sort of freelance a little bit more than you did. You know, in the Obama administration it was extremely sort of, uh, you know, orderly and-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, as Rahm mentioned, yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... meaty, but then, you know, the process, uh, you know, was, was followed to a T. Um, and so I do think there's, there's something to that, right? And I, I think particularly also with diplomacy, like, it is helpful, frankly, to build rapport with other people-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... to have a relationship where people can just c-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... pick up the phone and call you.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
I mean, in my own experience, a lot of the, the progress I personally made was through-
- TNTrevor Noah
Personal-
- EFEddie Fishman
... personal relationships-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, there you go
- EFEddie Fishman
... and trusting relationships. So I think there's something there. I think when it comes to expertise, though, I don't think there's really a substitute for it. Like, I, I do think you, you do want people in the room who at least know something about the country you're talking to or about, right? You understand-
- 1:22:37 – 1:24:57
Russia, Ukraine & Bad Policy in the '90s
- TNTrevor Noah
have nothing against the Russians. We have an issue with Vladimir Putin's government. Does that make sense?
- EUEugene
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
And I, I sometimes, like, that's why people are like, "Hey, congrats, you got banned from Russia," and they're happy for you 'cause they don't realize that you knew human beings there.
- EUEugene
Totally.
- TNTrevor Noah
They think, they think that you're cut off from the government, but you didn't lose the government. You lost humans, you lost friends, you lost family members, you lost your history, you lost your culture. And that's, that's the thing that I think we forget sometimes when we're having these, like, geopolitical disputes in the world, is even when people are like, "The Iranians," eh, man, I know people from Iran. Some of the most fun you'll ever... Like-
- EUEugene
Totally
- TNTrevor Noah
... amazing human beings, you know what I mean?
- EUEugene
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
But we then go, "The Iranians," and it's like, no, bruh. I wish we were more specific about, like, the country and that administration in particular. The same way no American wants to be tarnished by the Bush years. They call them the Bush years in particular.
- EUEugene
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
If you say to an American, "Oh, man-
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
... what you guys were doing in Iraq," they're like, "Oh, yeah, the Bush years." Then you're like, "Oh, the American years."
- EUEugene
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Americans will be like, "No, no, those were the Bush years," because they wanna separate themselves and America from that moment. You, you get what I'm saying?
- EUEugene
Yeah, yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Like, I, I don't know. I feel like there's like, there's like a world where we could try and, like, stitch the interpersonal just a little bit more.
- EUEugene
It almost feels like, um, the propaganda machine needed a villain all the time.
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh, definitely.
- EUEugene
So, uh, I think when you look at the... I, I, I love, I love reading about the Vietnam War. When you look at the Vietnam War, there was no really, there was not really a, a, a villain that the Americans can look at in Vietnam. There was no name in Vietnam that people could say. Vietnam started becoming synonymous with the war that never ended, but there was no human being.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You couldn't find the person.
- EUEugene
Right? But then when Iraq happened, then there was Saddam Hussein.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EUEugene
There was, there was branding.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EUEugene
Uh, when 9/11 happened, there was Osama bin Laden.
- TNTrevor Noah
Uh-huh.
- EUEugene
You know? And obviously Africa becomes synonymous with dictatorships. So but when you point the camera or the lens back at America and go, "You could be going through a dictatorship yourself," or Europe, and you go, "This is the same what Idi Amin used to do to people, not wanting to be voted out, elections that are prolonged, interference and whatsoever," then it becomes difficult for people to, to kind of ingest in their own country because it has become synonymous with something that happens over there.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- EUEugene
Right?
- 1:24:57 – 1:25:50
How Putin Rose to Power
- TNTrevor Noah
thing. I, I even wonder, actually, maybe, maybe you're best positioned to speak to this. Do you ever wonder if-
- EUEugene
Not me
- TNTrevor Noah
... No, no, no, no. W- did you ever work in a state department?
- EUEugene
I said this one. Now you can take it. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
You've worked in departments.
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
But not at the states.
- EUEugene
Department stores. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
Department stores.
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
The, the, the vegetable department.
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs] Many departments, this guy.
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
Traffic department.
- EUEugene
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
Hey, Eugene, many departments, not the state department. Do you ever wonder if America's propaganda has been too good?
- EUEugene
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
And what I mean by that is, is it possible that America's propaganda was so good, at a time when I argue it needed to be. Every country uses propaganda, so no judgment. This is just us looking at it as objectively as possible. Is it possible that America's propaganda was so good- That it bred a generation of people who now
- 1:25:50 – 1:31:11
The Danger of Propaganda & Caricaturing Other Countries
- TNTrevor Noah
had a complete inability to create new ideas of other countries because of the propaganda that, that they'd been fed. And I'll, I'll tell you where I bring this from. When you look at the Cold War and Russia and the US, it is fascinating to me that after, you know, World War II, the two nuclear bombs are dropped by the United States. The allied forces panic, go, "What the hell has happened here? We didn't ... As you said, it was a secret. We didn't know you guys had this bomb. What the hell is this?"
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
America goes, "Calm down, we've got, we've got the bomb. We'll protect you." The world's like, "We- we're not comfortable with this. This is scary," right? Everyone starts to panic. Russia then says, "America has this bomb, and we don't like that they're the only ones who have it. Maybe we should also try and make one." They then posture as if they sort of have a weapon, but they don't.
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
America then says, "Russia has a bomb." They then start acting like Russia has a bomb. Russia then goes like, "Yeah, yeah, we might have a bomb." America acts more like Russia has a bomb, and then they push Russia to have a bomb. And, and I'm not saying they forced Russia or you, you know what I mean. I'm not, I'm not simplifying it to that extent. But it feels like the, the, the, the, the idea that you can have of another country can be so powerful that even subsequent generations who didn't realize that it was propaganda, you know, watching cartoons like Popeye or Superman or any of these, when you get into government, you're like, "I don't trust the Russians."
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Why don't you trust them?
- EFEddie Fishman
Spy movies.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, but why don't you trust them?
- EFEddie Fishman
The KGB.
- TNTrevor Noah
'Cause from the time you were a kid-
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm
- TNTrevor Noah
... you were taught not to trust the Russians-
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm
- TNTrevor Noah
... as a whole. I'm not saying you should just trust Russia, the country, or the, the administration, but do you ever wonder if, like, that propaganda is so powerful that it has limited America's ability to see beyond its own propaganda that it created?
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, I mean, I think also, you know, the United States, despite the fact that we are and have been for a long time the world's most powerful country, we underwrite all of these international institutions. We've had sort of, uh, embassies all over the world. Our pop culture, as you say, is all over the world.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
We are relatively geographically isolated, and the vast majority of Americans don't travel overseas. They don't live in cities like New York, where you have plenty of friends who are Russian or Iranian.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, yeah, anyone can walk by. Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah, so it's very easy to caricature, uh, other, you know, people from other countries.
- TNTrevor Noah
Hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And I think that oftentimes does us a disservice in foreign policy.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, 'cause it just limits your ability to ... Like, I, I don't know how you negotiate with somebody if you don't see somebody to negotiate with, is what I mean.
- EFEddie Fishman
Hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
How, how do you even begin that conversation? What do you ... You know? You just give them a broad label, and then, and then you bomb away, and then you hope for the best.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. T- treat them like Uber Eats delivery guys.
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
Take your goods and wish them well.
- EUEugene
Eddie, what, what, what-
- TNTrevor Noah
That is definitely one way to think of it. [laughs]
- 1:31:11 – 1:32:14
Are We Just Seeing America's Own Propaganda?
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... and, like, a family level you don't really experience it.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, but yeah, it's, uh, it, it is sort of like a, a mind-bending experience when you see how even people who are very culturally similar to you, who are your friends in other countries-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... are perceiving the United States in this moment.
- EUEugene
Who you'd expect to know better, in fact. Yeah. So you can imagine what the other people think.
- TNTrevor Noah
It almost makes me wonder, just hearing you say that, if America was seeing America doing what America's doing, what would it do to America?
- EFEddie Fishman
Mm-hmm.
- EUEugene
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Like, literally, if, if America was witnessing the United States doing what it's doing now-
- EUEugene
Yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... would it impose sanctions on it? Would it i- invade it?
- EUEugene
Regime change?
- TNTrevor Noah
Would it push for a regime change? Would it- You know, that's a, it's a, it's an interesting way to think of it because if your allies are saying to you, "You are not yourself," it's almost the same as your friends calling you in for an intervention to be like, "Hey-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah
- TNTrevor Noah
... you're not the person we knew you to be."
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. No, I th- I think that's right. And look, I mean, in,
- 1:32:14 – 1:34:20
The Dollar, Tariffs & Economic Warfare Against Allies
- EFEddie Fishman
in some ways, Donald Trump, at least when it comes to economic warfare, is part of a consistent trend where every US president in the 21st century, from Bush to Obama to Trump's first term to Joe Biden to Trump second term has imposed sanctions at twice the rate of their predecessor.
- TNTrevor Noah
Really? Hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
So you've seen an exponential rise in the use of economic warfare across party lines. So in one sense we should appreciate that he is sort of part of this trend. At the, on the other hand, you know, previous presidents, including Trump during his first term, when they were using economic warfare it was against Russia and Iran and North Korea and China. Um, it was, it was a small group of countries that, for better or for worse, a lot of Americans view as sort of these pariah states.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Right? Trump, during his second term, has waged economic warfare not just against those countries, but against Canada, against Mexico, against India, against Japan, against the entire world.
- TNTrevor Noah
At some point threatened Lesotho.
- EFEddie Fishman
Right. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
I mean, who does that?
- EFEddie Fishman
Right.
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
He did, right? I mean, like they, they got hit with tariffs.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
On Liberation Day. They've already been surrounded by South Africa, guys.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, right. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
I mean, what are-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. Talk about a choke point, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah. [laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
That's a real choke point. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs] They're surrounding us.
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs] Yeah. No. So I mean, like that, yeah, I mean, that, that's not normal behavior, and I think it does have really long-term consequences for the United States because-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... I mean, if you go, y- we, you sort of loop back to our conversation about the dollar, like, after we imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... and I was involved in this, it was actually in 2014 before we had any sanctions or export controls or tariffs on China that Xi Jinping said, "Hold on a second. If this can happen to Russia-
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh
- EFEddie Fishman
... it can happen to us."
- TNTrevor Noah
Damn.
- EFEddie Fishman
So it was in 2014, a long, long time ago-
- TNTrevor Noah
Hmm
- 1:34:20 – 1:37:27
Verizon Segment: Most Iconic World Cup Moments
- EFEddie Fishman
that saw themselves as potentially allied with Russia or, you know, they might do something similar to Russia, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Right. Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, I don't think anyone in France is right now thinking about an imperialist war in the, in the, in sort of the way that, you know, Russia has invaded Ukraine, you know? So they don't see themselves like potentially the Russians. But now you do have, like, that shadow of a doubt-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
... all around the world, including in, like, the UK, you know, including in countries that are, like, our, our c- very close allies who are thinking, "How do we build security against America?"
- TNTrevor Noah
Damn. How do you create our unchokable points?
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah. I mean, look, Canada-
- TNTrevor Noah
Hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... I mean, to, to the choke points, I mean, Canada, um, is a petrostate, right? I mean, their, their, their vast majority of their exports are oil and gas.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, to your point about the convoys, right?
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, Canada sells their oil largely via pipelines, and those pipelines are fixed infrastructure and they only go one direction.
- TNTrevor Noah
South.
- EFEddie Fishman
They go south.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
They sell all their oil and gas to the United States, and for a long time that's been a very profitable business.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
They've got a very large market for their energy. Well, right now they're like, "Hold on. What happens if the US, you know, sanctions us or puts tariffs on us?"
- TNTrevor Noah
Hmm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And so they're investing billions of dollars to build pipelines to the coasts so they can sell their oil and gas to China, to Europe-
- TNTrevor Noah
Oh
- EFEddie Fishman
... so that they can't be just de- dependent on the United States.
- TNTrevor Noah
You know, what you're, what I'm hearing you say in this conversation is it's so interesting how history will repeat itself, but essentially in trying to create a stranglehold on, like, every country and every leader and every moment, it feels like the US has done the exact opposites. You know, like an overbearing parent that tries to control every single aspect-
- EFEddie Fishman
Yes
- TNTrevor Noah
... of their child's life.
- EFEddie Fishman
Yeah.
- TNTrevor Noah
Now their child has a secret phone and has secret friends and has a secret life. It feels like that's sort of what's happening to the US now is now Canada's going, "Oh, can I build my own pipeline? Can I make new friends?"
- EFEddie Fishman
Chinese payment systems.
- TNTrevor Noah
"Can I grow?" Yeah. And then Brazil is going, "Can we sell, you know, food to China?" And China's going, "Can we buy food from these people and..." It, it, it seems like it has, in some ways, created the thing in the same way that you said with the Germans at the beginning of this conversation. They were like, "Oh, we're gonna go after all of these people." And those people, because they w- went after-
- 1:37:27 – 1:38:19
Canada, China & the Scramble for Economic Security
- EFEddie Fishman
can use choke points. And so they're doing that. And then the other thing they're doing is this scramble for economic security.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
It's what are the choke points that make us vulnerable-
- TNTrevor Noah
Mm-hmm
- EFEddie Fishman
... to Chi- you know, that China could use against us, and that's why right now in the US we're investing tens of billions of dollars in our domestic critical minerals industry, 'cause we don't wanna be vulnerable to this China, uh, Chinese choke point on rare earths.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right. Yeah.
- EFEddie Fishman
Um, but also now to the United States, where, you know, we mentioned Canada, we mentioned China with the payment system. I mean, Europe, you know, they're now thinking can they build alternative to cloud services? You know, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, they dominate the global inter- internet. They build all the infrastructure that the internet runs through.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right. Mm.
- EFEddie Fishman
And these-
- TNTrevor Noah
And Europe wants their own now. They want something that they can rely on.
- EFEddie Fishman
Exactly. And so I think these two processes, the way I see it, are just gonna keep playing out- Until we have a fundamentally reshaped global economy.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- EFEddie Fishman
Until globalization
- 1:38:19 – 1:39:46
The Reshaping of the Global Economic Order
- EFEddie Fishman
is something that we learn about in the history books.
- TNTrevor Noah
It's just a moment in time, as opposed to the way things are.
- EFEddie Fishman
Exactly. I think that's what's happening right now, and there are different ways that could go, right? We don't know what the end point is, but I'm pretty confident that those two forces, this economic arms race and the scramble for economic security, are gonna continue to play out until we have a fundamentally new global economic order.
- TNTrevor Noah
Then Eddie, you just gonna keep coming back, my friend.
- EFEddie Fishman
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
We're just gonna keep having you back on the podcast, and we're just gonna, we're just gonna follow it step by step. This has been riveting.
- EFEddie Fishman
Thank you.
- TNTrevor Noah
Thank you. Like, really, this has been, your insight, the way you, the way you share things, the way you grapple with them.
- SPSpeaker
The way you explain.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, the way you explain.
- SPSpeaker
Mm-hmm.
- TNTrevor Noah
Can I tell you keep doing that? 'Cause I think we take for granted how many news stories people consume on a surface level, but we never actually get an understanding of, and I think you do a really good job of that. So thank you very much for joining us.
- EFEddie Fishman
It's my pleasure. I enjoyed hanging out with you guys.
- TNTrevor Noah
This was lots of fun, man.
- EFEddie Fishman
Good to see you.
- SPSpeaker
You're the man.
- EFEddie Fishman
You too.
- SPSpeaker
[laughs]
- EFEddie Fishman
See you in the department. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs] This segment is brought to you by Verizon. So Joe, most iconic World Cup moment ever. What has to be in the list? Throw me.
- SPSpeaker
So many. But as a Messi fan, as someone who has been given so much joy by Messi, I think 2022 World Cup, seeing football finally give back to Messi something that has, he has wanted for so long, and winning that World Cup-
- TNTrevor Noah
Let me
- 1:39:46 – 1:40:02
Keeping Yourself in Government: Moral Compass vs. Patriotism
- TNTrevor Noah
know when I should pull out my violin, please.
- SPSpeaker
Look-
- TNTrevor Noah
Let me know when I should pull out-
- SPSpeaker
Look, this man-
- TNTrevor Noah
It, like you make like-
- SPSpeaker
... had come so close in '20.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, but it's not like the most-
- SPSpeaker
'18
- TNTrevor Noah
... is it the most iconic moment?
- SPSpeaker
It was seeing him lift that trophy.
- TNTrevor Noah
No, Joe, come on. Come on.
- SPSpeaker
Messi, okay, he's-
- TNTrevor Noah
Okay, here, I'll throw-
- SPSpeaker
He's, you know-
- TNTrevor Noah
I'll throw one at-
- SPSpeaker
Let, let me first
- 1:40:02 – 1:43:31
Roberto Baggio's Missed Penalty
- SPSpeaker
go. Messi has been, has been hunting for this World Cup for forever.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, this is just-
- SPSpeaker
It's almost like-
- TNTrevor Noah
... his story
- SPSpeaker
... imagine you've been sliding into a girl's DM.
- TNTrevor Noah
Ask, ask people-
- SPSpeaker
You've been sliding and sliding and sliding, and finally she says hi back. That's what it felt like.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah, for you. No one else cares about your DMs. That's what I'm saying. I'm not saying no one cares about Messi's win. I'm just saying as an iconic moment-
- SPSpeaker
Okay
- TNTrevor Noah
... I'll throw one at you that I think-
- SPSpeaker
All right
- TNTrevor Noah
... is more iconic. Roberto Baggio missing his penalty.
- SPSpeaker
That was iconic, but it was also very traumatic. For me-
- TNTrevor Noah
[laughs]
- SPSpeaker
... it's the first moment. It was the first mo- it was the first moment that I realized how high the highs in soccer can be-
- TNTrevor Noah
And how lows
- SPSpeaker
... how low the lows can be.
- TNTrevor Noah
You know what was crazy about-
- SPSpeaker
Because-
- TNTrevor Noah
... about the Baggio thing for me, is how it connected us in a world that didn't even have social media.
- SPSpeaker
Yes.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right? No one had social media. I was in school-
- SPSpeaker
Yes
- TNTrevor Noah
... and kids were talking to each other. We, you know, we called it the Baggio from that on.
- SPSpeaker
The Baggio. Yes, yes.
- TNTrevor Noah
If you kicked the ball-
- SPSpeaker
Over and you miss
- TNTrevor Noah
... and you missed-
- SPSpeaker
Yes
- TNTrevor Noah
... the crossbar, people, you called yourself Baggio-
- 1:43:31 – 1:46:23
Luis Suarez Handball: Africa's Greatest Heartbreak
- SPSpeaker
it now, at least it doesn't go in." And-
- TNTrevor Noah
He is, he is an instinct player
- SPSpeaker
... Suarez played-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- SPSpeaker
... yeah, he played the advantages.
- TNTrevor Noah
Suarez, Suarez is an instinct player. I will, I think that's part of what made him great. The man-
- SPSpeaker
I think, I think, I think most other players would have hesitated, and I think that's the thing you're saying.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah.
- SPSpeaker
He was unapologetic. He didn't hesitate, and he knew the punishment that was coming. And he went like, "You know what? I'm going to gamb and risk it."
- TNTrevor Noah
I wonder if he's ever been to Africa ever since.
- SPSpeaker
No, he's public enemy number one.
- TNTrevor Noah
He can't, dude.
- SPSpeaker
He's the entire Africa-
- TNTrevor Noah
He can't
- SPSpeaker
... 'cause what happened was-
- TNTrevor Noah
Suarez connected us in a way that no-
- SPSpeaker
Yes
- TNTrevor Noah
... leader ever could.
- SPSpeaker
He didn't just connect Africa. He connected the diaspora. [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
That's what I'm saying. Like everywhere in the world.
- SPSpeaker
Everyone, yes. Everyone who was watching, yes.
- TNTrevor Noah
We all came together-
- SPSpeaker
Yes
- TNTrevor Noah
... against Luis Suarez.
- SPSpeaker
Yes.
- TNTrevor Noah
And the crazy thing is like I still love him. He's still one, I loved him from Liverpool. I love him as a player. He was at Barcelona.
- SPSpeaker
Yes.
- TNTrevor Noah
So he's like, it's e- he's this lovable villain.
- SPSpeaker
You love him when he's on your team especially.
- TNTrevor Noah
That's the best way to put it.
- 1:46:23 – 1:48:33
Suarez as a Lovable Villain
- TNTrevor Noah
looking for moments that bring us together as a nation, right? South Africans have never felt more African than in that moment.
- SPSpeaker
Yes.
- TNTrevor Noah
Right? Which is what we need more than ever. So in, in many ways-
- SPSpeaker
[laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
... I would argue Suarez might have robbed Ghana, but what he gifted Africa-
- SPSpeaker
Long term. Long term, yes
- TNTrevor Noah
... Long-term thinking.
- SPSpeaker
[laughs] No, the, he united Africa more than, as you said, more than anyone. But also the funny thing about that-
- TNTrevor Noah
Luis Suarez, the Nelson Mandela-
- SPSpeaker
Of Af- [laughs]
- TNTrevor Noah
... of Africa. [laughs]
- SPSpeaker
No, the funny, the funny thing about that moment, the funny thing, Nelson Mandela is funny. The funny thing about that moment is in that particular World Cup, Siphiwe Tshabalala had scored the goal-
- TNTrevor Noah
Yeah
- SPSpeaker
... that made ev- which, Tshabalala's goal felt like the moon landing for Africa.
- TNTrevor Noah
Yes, yeah, yeah.
- SPSpeaker
Like one small kick for man, one giant kick for mankind.
- TNTrevor Noah
For, for, yeah.
- SPSpeaker
Yes. And then Suarez brought us back down to Earth. Same World Cup, two very contrasting emotions, and I think if you're talking about bringing together a continent or bring, Tshabalala gave us the delirium, and then Suarez gave us, like, the depth of-
- TNTrevor Noah
Despair
- SPSpeaker
... despair.
- TNTrevor Noah
True despair. But man, he gave us one of the greatest moments of all time.
- SPSpeaker
What a moment to pick. What a moment to pick as an African.
- TNTrevor Noah
Ah. As an official sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 2026, Verizon is bringing once-in-a-lifetime experiences to their customers, including free tickets to matches and pitch-side access during gameplay. If you're not with Verizon, no sweat. Stop by a Verizon store to get in on the action and learn about their offers for new customers. [upbeat music] Thank you so much for watching the episode. If you enjoyed it, pass it on to a friend. If you didn't enjoy it, pass it on to your friend still. Let them suffer for a change. And don't forget to engage with us in the comments. Uh, if you wanna, uh, suggest a guest, maybe there's questions you want, maybe there's ideas that you have, you can chat to us. We will read through the comments, and we'll get into it. Either way, I appreciate you taking the time. Thank you for hanging out with us on What Now? And remember, we do this for you, so we would like to hear from you. Till next time. Thank you.
Episode duration: 1:48:21
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Transcript of episode W1P4iny-r4I
