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What Now? With Trevor NoahWhat Now? With Trevor Noah

Ian Bremmer: Who Is Actually Running the World?

Political scientist and author Ian Bremmer joins Trevor and Eugene to break down a world that is starting to feel a lot less predictable. What happens when American influence is no longer the default and tech companies begin to rival governments in power? Together, they unpack what that shift looks like in real terms, why the old rules are no longer holding, and what it means to be heading toward a “G-Zero” world, where no single country is in charge. With hundreds of new sales every week, you can eat well for less at Whole Foods Market. If you haven't already.... Subscribe to the channel here: http://bit.ly/SubscribeTrevorNoah Or follow the podcast on your other favorite platforms... SiriusXM Apple Podcasts - https://bit.ly/WhatNowOnApplePodcasts Spotify - https://bit.ly/WhatNowOnSpotify 00:00 - Introduction & Welcome 01:25 - Who Is Ian Bremmer? 03:59 - How the World Sees America — And How That Changed 05:55 - America Is Doing What It Accuses China Of 16:31 - Will Tech Companies Replace Governments? 20:29 - The Post-Human World: AI, Power & Identity 25:49 - Why Trump Won — The Cold Analysis 27:39 - The Mugshot That Guaranteed Trump's Win 32:24 - What Is Strategic Thinking (And Why America Lacks It) 34:04 - Trump Is a Symptom, Not the Cause 36:22 - Young Leaders & the Transformation of Saudi Arabia 44:03 - The US Is in the Middle of a Political Revolution 49:11 - When Can Democracy Break? 53:45 - Where Ian Bremmer's Clarity Comes From 1:10:47 - Strategic Thinking in Real Life + New York 1:13:05 - Ian as the Geopolitical Therapist to World Leaders 1:24:28 - What the World Gets Wrong About Russia 1:27:10 - Venezuela, Oil & America's Real Interests 1:32:54 - Has America Lost Its Moral Authority? 1:36:27 - Ian Bremmer's Biggest Unanswered Questions

Trevor NoahhostEugenehostIan Bremmerguest
Apr 23, 20261h 50mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:001:25

    Introduction & Welcome

    1. TN

      [upbeat music] This is why you should always lie to your AI. I encourage people all the time to-

    2. EU

      To lie?

    3. TN

      As much as you can.

    4. EU

      Tell me more.

    5. TN

      And every time you type into your AI-

    6. EU

      Mm

    7. TN

      ... like, whatever you use, I always encourage people to just throw it off the trail sometimes. Just be like, "I'm a father of seven, and this is my life, and, you know, this is what's happening."

    8. EU

      But you are a father.

    9. TN

      Y- y-

    10. EU

      Of seven.

    11. TN

      Yeah, but if you're not a father of seven-

    12. EU

      Oh, okay

    13. TN

      ... you get what I'm saying?

    14. EU

      Okay.

    15. TN

      Just be like random things. I live in Bulgaria, and this is my story, and this is my world.

    16. IB

      But you do live in Bulgaria.

    17. TN

      Oh.

    18. EU

      I mean.

    19. IB

      You just don't tell people that.

    20. TN

      You, you know, I thought I was worried about the future.

    21. IB

      [laughs]

    22. TN

      I should be worried about the present. I've got two state actors here.

    23. IB

      [laughs]

    24. TN

      I'm trying to help you.

    25. EU

      What you mean is agent provocateur.

    26. IB

      That's right.

    27. TN

      [laughs]

    28. EU

      [laughs] [upbeat music]

    29. TN

      This is What Now? With Trevor Noah. [upbeat music]

    30. EU

      And also, there's words you're not allowed to use on this podcast.

  2. 1:253:59

    Who Is Ian Bremmer?

    1. TN

      for. Good to have you here.

    2. IB

      Thanks, Trevor.

    3. TN

      Ian Bremmer, I ... It's funny, I was, I was, I was thinking about how to describe you, and I was like, you should just ask the man himself, because I just think of you as a thinker, which I hope doesn't reduce you down to just one activity, but you are one of my favorite thinkers in the world, and that's how I came across you. I actually think the first time I came across your work was on Twitter, and I remember being like, "Who is-"

    4. IB

      Some of my best work is on Twitter, Twitter is the best thing ever.

    5. TN

      I mean, isn't that all of us?

    6. IB

      Yeah, exactly.

    7. EU

      [laughs]

    8. IB

      My short form work.

    9. TN

      [laughs]

    10. IB

      Yeah.

    11. TN

      The books, I see.

    12. EU

      It's connected.

    13. IB

      [laughs] Twitter, my friend.

    14. TN

      Ah, those 160 characters.

    15. EU

      [laughs]

    16. TN

      How you nailed it. How you nailed it. No, seriously, and, uh, and, and I remember even at the time noticing that you, you approached every topic or every idea with a, a different bent, is the best way to put it. It always feels like you're thinking about thinking differently. And then even when I was getting ready for this interview, I was going like, "Wait, but how do you think of yourself? What, what would you say, like, your primary job ... Like, if a five-year-old was asking you, "Uh, Mr. Bremmer, what do you, what do you do?" What would you say to them?

    17. IB

      I, I'd probably say, uh, I try to understand how different countries around the world interact with each other.

    18. TN

      Mm.

    19. IB

      Where the world's going. I'm a political scientist. I wouldn't say that to a five-year-old.

    20. TN

      Yeah, yeah, okay.

    21. IB

      That's bad for a five-year-old.

    22. TN

      Right.

    23. IB

      But that is what I think of myself as. I don't, I don't think of myself as, like, a president of a firm or an entrepreneur-

    24. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah

    25. IB

      ... or any of those other things. I've always been, ever since I majored in political science as an undergrad, I, I thought to myself, "Well, this is cool. This is what I wanna, this is what I wanna learn about." I'd never traveled anywhere. Suddenly I start traveling around the world, go, "Oh, that's awesome. Those people are really different than what I thought they were, and I, I wanna get that." And so if you study humanity at that level, then you're kind of a political scientist.

    26. TN

      On, on the s- on the lowest level, or rather on the simplest level, I think of it, like, there was a time, I remember reading a book about this. I think it was, like, in the '80s or somewhere there, when American companies were working with Japanese companies, and they didn't realize how many of the things they considered respectful were disrespectful-

    27. EU

      Mm

    28. TN

      ... in Japan. And then whenever they had to go to Japan, they had to, they, they had to give them a manual to say, "Hey, I know this is how you see the world."

    29. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    30. TN

      "But in Japan, this is how they see the world, and you need to interact with them according to their worldview."

  3. 3:595:55

    How the World Sees America — And How That Changed

    1. TN

      that other countries think differently to them. Is that, is that a safe assertion?

    2. IB

      Completely, completely. And not only that, but over time, these things are fluid.

    3. TN

      Mm.

    4. IB

      You know, when I started in 1989, when I started my graduate degree-

    5. TN

      Yeah

    6. IB

      ... career, that's when the wall came down.

    7. TN

      Berlin Wall.

    8. IB

      And ... Yeah. And the rest of the world had a view of the United States in the context of, like, that Cold War-

    9. TN

      Mm

    10. IB

      ... and winning the Cold War, and those ideas. And it's only been 35 years, and the view of the United States around the world has changed radically-

    11. TN

      Mm

    12. IB

      ... over that period of who we are, of what we do and don't stand for.

    13. TN

      Hm.

    14. IB

      That's, that's super interesting, right?

    15. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    16. IB

      And, and so generations change, too. The generation that remembered what it was like when you stood for something or you fought for something-

    17. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah

    18. IB

      ... a new generation thinks like, "Well, that doesn't matter anymore."

    19. TN

      Mm.

    20. IB

      Right? So I mean, think about where China was 35 years ago.

    21. TN

      Yeah.

    22. IB

      And I mean, you know, you go there, and everyone was riding a bicycle, and now they're building better tech than we have in the United States.

    23. TN

      Yeah.

    24. IB

      Like, so the ... It's not just this idea of, oh, countries are static, and I need to help you understand that when you go to Japan, it's different. It's also that your, your own place is changing, and how you're perceived as being is different than it used to be.

    25. TN

      How far do you think America is from how many Americans think about it currently in the world?

    26. IB

      Oh, I, I think it's-

    27. TN

      Like, like, like, take us, take us through a little journey. So let's talk about that period. There's the period-

    28. IB

      Yeah

    29. TN

      ... where America comes out of these, these wars, physical and otherwise, right?

    30. IB

      Yeah.

  4. 5:5516:31

    America Is Doing What It Accuses China Of

    1. IB

      that America used to be the place that wanted to trade with everybody.

    2. TN

      Hmm.

    3. IB

      Free trade.

    4. TN

      Yeah.

    5. IB

      Now tariffs are the principal tool that the Americans are using economically, and, and it's not just about Trump. I m- most people in the US, Democrats, Republicans, are saying, "No, no, no, no. We don't want free trade. We want, like, you know, stuff that's built much more here."

    6. TN

      Yeah.

    7. IB

      "And we want more manufacturing here." And, you know, you think as well about immigration, and my grandma came through Ellis Island and the Statue of Liberty, which-

    8. TN

      Where did she come from?

    9. IB

      Uh, originally they are Syrian Armenians.

    10. TN

      Oh, wow.

    11. IB

      Yeah.

    12. TN

      Okay.

    13. IB

      Yeah. And so they came over, and she's even on a little bench on a little-

    14. TN

      Oh, wow

    15. IB

      ... a little-

    16. TN

      That's amazing

    17. IB

      ... kind of cool to see.

    18. EU

      Still now.

    19. IB

      Yeah.

    20. TN

      That's amazing.

    21. IB

      I mean, I haven't been today.

    22. EU

      Oh, I thought- [laughs]

    23. IB

      But I think so.

    24. TN

      [laughs]

    25. IB

      Unless someone ripped it out, I mean, you know.

    26. EU

      On these two cold days.

    27. TN

      [laughs]

    28. IB

      Yeah.

    29. EU

      She's out there in a bench.

    30. IB

      She's still there.

  5. 16:3120:29

    Will Tech Companies Replace Governments?

    1. IB

      technology companies are becoming essentially sovereign as actors in the West. They are the ones that are not just writing the regulations, but they're actually creating the algorithms that they're deploying real time. They're experimenting on society and the economy and national security.

    2. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    3. IB

      And, and I think that within five, 10 years, some of these technology companies are likely to act like states on the global stage, that their level of power and influence will make them geopolitical actors. Not in China. In China, the state is controlling AI, and the state is controlling what tech companies can do. But in the United States, really, that development has-

    4. TN

      Mm

    5. IB

      ... has been just turbocharged, and I don't see the, the, the willingness or the capacity in the US government to do much about that soon, and yet it's moving really, really fast.

    6. TN

      It's moving very fast.

    7. IB

      So we need to start asking ourselves, well, what does a global order look like when some of the principal actors are countries that do or don't have elections-

    8. TN

      Yeah

    9. IB

      ... but with citizens that they're meant to provide for, and some of them are companies with CEOs-

    10. TN

      Billions

    11. IB

      ... and owners and shareholders-

    12. TN

      Mm-hmm

    13. IB

      ... and business models-

    14. TN

      Mm-hmm

    15. IB

      ... which don't look anything like governments. And we know that governments, some are rich and some are poor, and some are more closed and authoritarian, and some are more open and democratic. We don't even have models to understand What different types of companies are and what their business models are and their alignment with governments or not. So that's a, that's a real mind fuck if you wanna think about where the world is going, and, and I think we need to start ... Like, my field doesn't even have like the ... If you went to college and studied political science or international relations, there wouldn't be that you'd have American politics, you'd have comparative international relations. You wouldn't have like a, a branch that would look at companies as geopolitical actors.

    16. TN

      Hm.

    17. IB

      And yet I, I would argue that we need to have that now.

    18. TN

      I, I don't know if it's the same, but could it be similar, obviously in a m- way more modern way, but could it be similar to what the world experienced w- you know, like in and around like the Dutch East India Trading Company and ... Because there was a time when the ships that were trading around the world were owned by-

    19. IB

      Companies

    20. TN

      ... companies-

    21. IB

      Mm-hmm

    22. TN

      ... that were almost more powerful than some governments because they carried the spices, they carried the gold, they carried the people, they carried the ... Do you know what I mean?

    23. IB

      Mm-hmm.

    24. TN

      And, and their influence and their power was such that they could shift your fortune.

    25. EU

      Yes, they decided who's who.

    26. TN

      If they were on your side, they, they would give you a loan as a country. They would decide where your military goes or doesn't. Do you think we ... Is it that, or do you think it's even-

    27. IB

      I think it's even bigger than that.

    28. TN

      Oh, this is terrifying.

    29. IB

      And the reason I think it's, the reason I think it's bigger is because if we imagine just a few years down the road, and you and I have both seen some of these presentations before-

    30. TN

      Yeah, yeah. We have

  6. 20:2925:49

    The Post-Human World: AI, Power & Identity

    1. IB

      become more than or less than Homo sapiens. You're gonna be programmed by this thing. You'll become kind of a hybrid human being in some ways. Um, but it won't be because of your relationship with the government, a passport, a citizenship. It's gonna be because your relationship with that AI, which is owned by a company, which is created by a company.

    2. TN

      Mm.

    3. IB

      That's a, that's a wild evolution of a geopolitical model that you and I have grown up with just kind of not even questioning what the assumptions are.

    4. TN

      This is why you should always lie to your AI. I encourage people all the time.

    5. EU

      To lie?

    6. TN

      As much as you can.

    7. EU

      Tell me more.

    8. TN

      As much as you can. Every time you type into your AI-

    9. EU

      Mm

    10. TN

      ... like whatever you use, I always encourage people to just throw it off the trail sometimes. Just be like, "I'm a father of seven and this is my life, and you know, this is what's happening."

    11. EU

      But you are a father.

    12. TN

      Y- y-

    13. EU

      Of seven.

    14. TN

      Yeah, but if you're not a father of seven-

    15. EU

      Oh, okay

    16. TN

      ... you get what I'm saying?

    17. EU

      Okay.

    18. TN

      Just be like random things. I live in Bulgaria and this is my story and this is my world.

    19. IB

      But you do live in Bulgaria.

    20. TN

      Oh.

    21. EU

      I mean.

    22. IB

      You just don't tell people that.

    23. TN

      You, you know, I thought I was worried about the future.

    24. IB

      [laughs]

    25. TN

      I should be worried about the present. I've got two state actors here. I'm trying to help you.

    26. EU

      What you mean is agent provocateur. [laughs]

    27. IB

      That's right.

    28. EU

      What you're saying is actually very interesting because, uh, in South Africa on the 16th of December is, um, a day of reconciliation, which has been Dingane's Day before. Um, it was commemorating the Zulus turning on the, on the Dutch, on the, on the Afrikaner basically-

    29. IB

      Mm

    30. EU

      ... after they send them on a conquest to go fetch cattle from the, from the Sotho king. But one professor was interviewed on radio, and he was saying that it is not about the history itself. It's a, it's, it's, it's that the history being taken away from the curriculum of a schooling system makes people lose their culture. Now, when everyone in a country that has 11 official languages starts speaking one language, it's gonna be very hard for them-

  7. 25:4927:39

    Why Trump Won — The Cold Analysis

    1. IB

      People believing that the US was so broken, that the political system was so corrupt-

    2. TN

      Mm-hmm

    3. IB

      ... so sclerotic, uh, is what got us Trump.

    4. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    5. IB

      Most people that voted for Trump thought that democracy was more important than the people that voted against it.

    6. TN

      Right.

    7. IB

      Because, because for them-

    8. EU

      That's deep

    9. IB

      ... the idea, and it us- it's in the polls. They, they re-

    10. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    11. IB

      Not- most people didn't think that the election was about democracy, but for those that did, more of them voted for Trump than voted for Kamala in the last election. And it's because those people thought that the, the deep state, the administrative state-

    12. TN

      The system

    13. IB

      ... the system-

    14. TN

      Yeah

    15. IB

      ... was so broken, just like my mom used to.

    16. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    17. IB

      My mom, when she was alive, you know, she didn't finish high school. She cared a lot about me and my brother. That was her whole life, and she's like, "These guys will never take care of you."

    18. TN

      Hmm.

    19. IB

      Not, not the government officials, not the CEOs, not the bankers, not the media, none of those fancy people. I gotta fight for everything.

    20. TN

      Hmm.

    21. IB

      And if I have to steal, I'll steal, because it's my kids, right?

    22. TN

      Yeah.

    23. IB

      And, and I, you know, the, you have so many Americans over the past decades that feel that way about the government. That's what got you Bernie. It's what got you Mum Dani. It's what got you Trump. It's the same thing.

    24. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    25. IB

      Why did Trump decide that he was gonna welcome Mum Dani in the White House? Because fundamentally, he gets that that's part of what got him there.

    26. TN

      Yeah. He was saying, he said, like, "We agree on a lot of stuff."

    27. IB

      Sure.

    28. TN

      You know?

    29. IB

      You know? Both in principle saying we wanna stick it to the man.

    30. TN

      Yeah.

  8. 27:3932:24

    The Mugshot That Guaranteed Trump's Win

    1. IB

      convictions and the mugshot, that's when I was convinced Trump was gonna win.

    2. TN

      Wait, really?

    3. IB

      Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    4. TN

      Because that, because that made him seem like it is, the deep state is a thing or that-

    5. EU

      It can happen to anyone

    6. IB

      ... the system was out to get him.

    7. TN

      Yeah.

    8. IB

      Like of all of the bad things that he did, of all of the real political cases-

    9. TN

      Mm-hmm

    10. IB

      ... that were out there and should have been brought, of the impeachments that were real-

    11. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah

    12. IB

      ... of the Republicans that said, "No mas," right?

    13. TN

      Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

    14. IB

      Um, it was the most ridiculous case that would not have been brought up as felony charges-

    15. TN

      Mm-hmm

    16. IB

      ... against another American that was politicized against Trump. That's where he got his felony convictions. And, you know, his entire election was a grievance-based election.

    17. TN

      Yeah.

    18. IB

      It's like, you know, "They're coming after you. I'm standing in front of them," you know? "Let them come after me."

    19. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    20. IB

      And they do wanna take him down, right?

    21. TN

      Yeah.

    22. IB

      And he was almost assassinated.

    23. TN

      Yeah, yeah.

    24. IB

      And it was this close.

    25. TN

      It's this world of, like, everything ... It, it's interesting that you say the thing about same, 'cause I, I've seen people bristle at that comment if you say Bernie and B- and they go, "How, how can you say..." But, um, AOC had a, a, a live on her Instagram, I think it was after, um, I think it was the midterms. I, I forget which election it was, but she had done really well and most Democrats hadn't. And then she asked just her, her followers online, she said, "Are any of, have any of you voted for me and for Donald Trump? And if so, please tell me why." Because, you know, she was sort of posing this question. She went, "I, it seems like we're completely different."

    26. IB

      Hmm.

    27. TN

      "How would you vote for me and him? I don't understand that."

    28. IB

      Hmm.

    29. TN

      And it was fascinating to see the responses that people gave. They said, "While the two of you are not politically aligned, you both agree that the system is broken."

    30. IB

      The system is broken.

  9. 32:2434:04

    What Is Strategic Thinking (And Why America Lacks It)

    1. IB

      think, um, it's wanting to first define a problem before you act in response to it.

    2. TN

      Mm.

    3. IB

      Right? The, the, the idea of something is uncomfortable and therefore I lash out, that's not strategic thinking.

    4. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    5. IB

      Right? That's pain reaction. Um, there are lots of problems, lots of challenges, lots of opportunities in the world, right? You couldn't respond to climate change until you had a population around the world that recognized, "Oh, here's the science. Here's what's happening."

    6. TN

      Okay.

    7. EU

      Mm.

    8. IB

      We've, we've got the following carbon in the atmosphere, and it's leading to these changes.

    9. TN

      Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

    10. IB

      You can choose to decarbonize.

    11. EU

      Ignore it. Mm.

    12. IB

      You can choose, um, to invest in new technologies. You can choose to adapt. You can even say, "Actually, we're getting so much benefit from the economic outcomes of globalization with oil and coal that we don't wanna do that other stuff." Maybe we ... There are lots of different effective ways to respond.

    13. EU

      Mm.

    14. IB

      But you can't even start to respond until you have identified the environment that you're in, the real honest to God environment you're in.

    15. TN

      Hm.

    16. IB

      And that is true in climate, it's true in technology, it's true in geopolitics, it's true in the economy.

    17. TN

      It's true in life, I would say.

    18. IB

      It's true in life.

    19. TN

      Even in a, in a, in a personal relationship, you know, it's first understanding what the situation is.

    20. IB

      Yeah.

    21. TN

      Who you are, where you are.

    22. IB

      Yeah.

    23. EU

      Yes.

    24. IB

      Where you are.

    25. EU

      Survey the terrain and then have a battle plan.

    26. IB

      Yeah. Yeah, because too many people wanna get into the debate about what we should do before they've actually discussed where we are. And so, like, this whole discussion of Trump good, Trump bad, let's first understand how we got to the point of Trump because Trump is not the reason the United States is in the present situation.

    27. EU

      Mm.

    28. IB

      Trump

  10. 34:0436:22

    Trump Is a Symptom, Not the Cause

    1. IB

      is a beneficiary, Trump is a symptom, and Trump is an accelerant, but Trump only happens in a political environment where very large numbers of people believe that the system is already broken.

    2. TN

      Hm.

    3. IB

      So to be a strategic thinker about what needs to happen in the US, you have to understand that, and that makes you then think, "Well, maybe the political establishment as we've been dealing with it for the past decades-

    4. TN

      Yeah

    5. IB

      ... is not the answer." [upbeat music]

    6. TN

      We're gonna continue this conversation right after this short break. You know what I love about spring? Everything just feels fresh again. The weather shifts, people start going outside more, and suddenly you feel like you should be eating something that didn't come out of a packet. That's why I like going to Whole Foods Market this time of year. Whole Foods Market is your go-to destination to celebrate the fresh flavors of spring, with seasonal produce at its juiciest, plus limited time flavors throughout the store. This is the time to get together and share vibrant finds with your loved ones, and you feel it as soon as you walk in. You've got organic bagged salad kits, fresh produce, potatoes, parsnips, radishes, spring onions, artichokes, all the things that make you feel like you've got your life together. And then of course, you go in for that and you leave with things you didn't plan for, like a peach apricot rose Italian soda, or those 365 by Whole Foods Market strawberry pretzels that somehow disappear before you even get home. And if you're hosting, or even just showing up somewhere trying to impress people, the bakery has you covered. The mango yuzu Chantilly cake, the strawberry shortcake. These are the kind of desserts where people don't ask questions, they just assume that you know what you're doing. And the nice thing is there are deals throughout the store, especially on 365 brand items, so you can feel responsible while still treating yourself a little, because that's really what spring is about, starting fresh and then rewarding yourself immediately. Enjoy the fresh flavors of spring and save at Whole Foods Market. [upbeat music]

  11. 36:2244:03

    Young Leaders & the Transformation of Saudi Arabia

    1. EU

      People are always hopeful of younger leaders having better ideas. Is that true in politics, and, um, do you think it'll be true for the US as well?

    2. IB

      Um, well, I think younger, um, people are increasingly the majority.

    3. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    4. IB

      So whether or not they have the answers, they will be the answers.

    5. EU

      Hm.

    6. IB

      So understanding those demographic changes, super, super important. Right? Like Saudi Arabia, I was just in Saudi Arabia a little bit ago.

    7. TN

      What's it like?

    8. IB

      Uh, it's so different than 10 years ago-

    9. TN

      Mm

    10. IB

      ... than 20 years ago. I, I mean, the, it's, it's literally they're going through, like, a, a reverse Iranian revolution.

    11. TN

      Mm.

    12. IB

      Now, now, they have leadership, which is, of course, deeply confident, and it's a monarchy.

    13. TN

      Yeah, yeah.

    14. IB

      And it doesn't brook political opposition, but they are transforming how societies work. It's not just that women drive. It's that they work. It's that they're educated. They're going out. They're, like, there's a dating culture in Saudi Arabia now. It feels normal to an outsider-

    15. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah

    16. IB

      ... in a way that 10 years ago-

    17. TN

      It wasn't

    18. IB

      ... it felt like an alien, repressive society.

    19. TN

      Now, you see, this, this is something that I, I feel like you're the perfect person to speak to about this because you have to think of it. This is literally your job, and this is what you consult on, and this is what you work in. This is what you write about. This is what ... How, how do you think any given person in any given country should think about other countries and the journey that they're on in terms of getting to the place that we think they should get to? Uh, I- I know that sounds like a word jumble. It's like a word salad, but-

    20. IB

      There was a lot there, Trevor.

    21. TN

      Yeah, but I-

    22. EU

      507. [laughs]

    23. IB

      Yeah, from Bulgaria.

    24. TN

      This is, this is, this ... I haven't slept in a long time, guys.

    25. EU

      [laughs]

    26. TN

      So I think of it like this. Many people in the United States would say, "Nobody should do business with Saudi Arabia. No one should go to Saudi Arabia. No one should do anything in and around Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia doesn't have free speech, and they oppress gay people, and it, it's a terrible place for women, et cetera, et." They'll say all these things, right? They'll say them. Uh, some of them being very true, some of them maybe outdated. They've changed, but people haven't changed knowing what has changed, right? I remember asking someone this question, not being pro Saudi Arabia at all, by the way. I just said, "But America wasn't always pro-gay rights, right?"

    27. IB

      Correct. Obviously.

    28. TN

      So do you think America should have been boycotted and sanctioned then? And people were like, "Uh, well, no, but I, uh, uh, well, well, uh, they, uh," but-

    29. IB

      But sanctions on South Africa, of course, worked, right?

    30. TN

      Mm-hmm.

  12. 44:0349:11

    The US Is in the Middle of a Political Revolution

    1. IB

      the US is going through a political revolution at the same time that it is the most powerful country in the world.

    2. TN

      Oh, that's interesting.

    3. EU

      Mm.

    4. TN

      That's really interesting.

    5. IB

      Mm-hmm. So that al- so many countries-

    6. TN

      Because, because commonly, because commonly it would happen when things aren't going well.

    7. EU

      Yeah, on your knees. Yeah

    8. IB

      So many countries around the world are not happy with what the US is doing, but they don't want to get into a fight.

    9. TN

      Oh.

    10. IB

      'Cause it's dangerous for them. And not just Mexico, not just Canada, but the Europeans, right?

    11. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    12. IB

      I mean, when publicly, when they're meeting with the Americans, they're trying to find a way to, "Oh, yes, you're brilliant, and we gotta find a way to work with you."

    13. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

    14. IB

      "We appreciate all your efforts, and we'll get to the right peace deal with Ukraine, and we'll get to the right trade deal-"

    15. TN

      Right, right

    16. IB

      ... "between the two countries." Only the Chinese have hit the Americans back hard, and the Americans backed off.

    17. TN

      So when we, when we're looking at that world, y- you know, you said that first rule, first understand the lay of the land.

    18. EU

      The terrain.

    19. TN

      First understand the situation before you react or respond to it. We are currently in a situation where, as you said, you know, power's diffuse. People can work in different worlds. Like, you know, a good example is America being, like, the number one exporter of, like, soy to China, and then Brazil, I think, basically taking that spot from them.

    20. IB

      And then the Americans taking it back.

    21. TN

      Yeah.

    22. IB

      Now.

    23. TN

      Yeah, because now going, like, "We're gonna work that deal. We're gonna find who we pay with that." It, it's, it's such an interesting, complicated puzzle that's constantly moving.

    24. EU

      Hmm.

    25. TN

      So what is step two? When you, when you have the information that's only applicable to now in this moment-

    26. IB

      Yeah

    27. TN

      ... what is step two of strategic thinking?

    28. IB

      Well, well, let's first recognize why step one is so hard today. Because if you're living in an environment where the basic, like, the block and tackling of just what the information is-

    29. EU

      Hmm

    30. IB

      ... is completely divided on the basis of your political tribal affiliation-

  13. 49:1153:45

    When Can Democracy Break?

    1. IB

      and that happens in so many different countries. You cannot tell me that there is something so exceptional about the United States, so unique in, in human history that it could not happen in the United States. This is a country that had a civil war.

    2. TN

      Hmm.

    3. IB

      Where it literally tore itself apart over ideas.

    4. TN

      Hmm.

    5. IB

      And, and it could happen again. Of course it could.

    6. EU

      There's that phrase that always scares me, the political class and what it breeds, right? I think we don't talk enough about that.

    7. IB

      Hmm.

    8. EU

      Yeah.

    9. TN

      What, what elements of it?

    10. EU

      The fact that-

    11. TN

      Does, does breeding make you uncomfortable? Which part?

    12. EU

      [laughs]

    13. TN

      [laughs]

    14. EU

      Once you have people that will cling onto power by any means necessary-

    15. IB

      Mm-hmm

    16. EU

      ... then they start determining about, uh, I mean, how the culture of that country is going to be like.

    17. TN

      Yeah.

    18. EU

      The one person that's gonna get into power, who's gonna slip in after all is said and done is gonna wanna stick, and then we see it in this country, right? Someone brings in their relative, they get power, then they have the people that are around them that have political power as well. Then it becomes a little cabal and a class that goes and negotiates deals with other countries, but they're not necessarily acting for the country. Then they start determining who's a figurehead that stands in there, but they're the ones who control the levers of power.

    19. TN

      Yeah, I mean, in South Africa we see that as well.

    20. EU

      Hmm.

    21. TN

      Where it's like one of the great fears of any leader is losing the power, not because they want to do things for the country, but because they're scared of what will be done to them.

    22. IB

      To themselves.

    23. EU

      Yeah, yeah.

    24. TN

      Because of what they've done.

    25. EU

      Yes. But obviously-

    26. TN

      You know?

    27. EU

      ... in our country it went with, um ... It, it, it was political struggle-

    28. TN

      Yeah

    29. EU

      ... credentials first.

    30. TN

      Yeah.

  14. 53:451:10:47

    Where Ian Bremmer's Clarity Comes From

    1. IB

      right? I grew up in the projects. I wasn't part of some political elite in the United States, so I didn't feel connected to that.

    2. TN

      Yeah.

    3. IB

      Secondly, I traveled all over the place, starting when I was a kid. 16 I went to the Soviet Union.

    4. TN

      Why?

    5. IB

      Because I was, uh, I was in college, because I was pushed ahead when I was younger.

    6. TN

      Uh-huh.

    7. IB

      Um, and it was an opportunity to go someplace for someone that had never been anywhere.

    8. EU

      Hmm.

    9. IB

      And the Soviet Union, behind the Iron Curtain, and then you find out, wait a second, the kids that are here are a lot like the, like me.

    10. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    11. IB

      And, and I get really offended. Like, I know that there are a whole bunch of people out there that are like, "You know, you shouldn't think that, uh, just because you're Black, you think this way, or just because you're a woman, you think this way." A lot of people think that because you're an American, you think a certain way.

    12. EU

      Certainly, yeah.

    13. TN

      Oh.

    14. IB

      And I, I get hugely offended by that personally. Like, the idea that I would hold certain political beliefs and values just because of what country I happened to randomly be born in.

    15. TN

      [laughs]

    16. IB

      That's like a crazy thought, right?

    17. EU

      Well, your grandmother will argue the random part, but ... [laughs]

    18. IB

      But that was my grandmother. I'm not my grandma. I didn't make that decision.

    19. TN

      And so can I tell you, can I ... It, it, it is so funny. I remember talking to somebody about this once and I said, one concept that has, h- has truly, truly, truly always evaded a certain part of my brain is, like, patriotism in, in, in the sense where people are ... You know when they go like, "My country..." Then I'm like, I'm not saying don't love your country, but you also have to admit it is pretty random that you didn't choose it. For the most part.

    20. IB

      Mm-hmm.

    21. TN

      People didn't choose it.

    22. IB

      Yeah.

    23. TN

      You-

    24. IB

      I'm Catholic, not my fault at all.

    25. TN

      [laughs]

    26. IB

      And there are a lot of weird things about Catholicism-

    27. TN

      [laughs]

    28. IB

      ... that I do not support. But I grew up as a Catholic, and I don't wanna renounce it.

    29. TN

      That's what I'm saying. It's just like this-

    30. IB

      I want to

  15. 1:10:471:13:05

    Strategic Thinking in Real Life + New York

    1. IB

      thing that you most-

    2. TN

      Hmm

    3. IB

      ... need to key on is, how do I respond to that in terms of how I want to be spending my time?

    4. TN

      Oh.

    5. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    6. TN

      Oh, I like that.

    7. IB

      And I spend a lot of time personally thinking strategically about that. What are the things that I want to be doing?

    8. TN

      With your time.

    9. IB

      How much do I want to travel?

    10. TN

      Yeah.

    11. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    12. IB

      How much do I want to engage in the following ways with the following people?

    13. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    14. IB

      What do I want to spend my time doing? I've organized my company that way.

    15. TN

      Yeah.

    16. IB

      I organize the people that work with me that way, the kinds of things I work on and I don't work on.

    17. TN

      Yeah.

    18. IB

      It's all about the s- the time that I'm actually spending.

    19. TN

      [upbeat music] Don't go anywhere, because we got more What Now? after this. This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. Imagine this. You're at a checkout counter. You're ready to pay when you realize you don't have your wallet. Dun-dun-dun. You could drive all the way back home, and you could get it, but you remember that you have your Apple Card on your iPhone. So you can tap to pay with Apple Pay. Imagine that. No need to carry a wallet. But you know, one of the things I do like about having my card on my phone is we live in a world where you lose your card, and then you don't know where it is, and then you're like, "What do I do?" Well, if your phone is connected to your card and your card is connected to your phone, you know what's going on. The best thing about having the Apple Card connected to your phone is you know what every transaction is. You know how, like, sometimes you're like, "What did I spend this month?" The Apple Card will show you. One month, I had spent an obscene amount of money ordering videos online.

    20. EU

      Just videos.

    21. TN

      They were just videos.

    22. EU

      What kind of videos?

    23. TN

      That's not the point.

    24. EU

      Sure.

    25. TN

      The point is, I knew that I didn't want to order those videos anymore, because I'd spent too much money on it. It was videos on how to not spend money online.

    26. EU

      [laughs]

    27. TN

      I felt like I'd been duped. Point is, Apple showed me what I was spending my money on.

    28. EU

      [laughs]

    29. TN

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  16. 1:13:051:24:28

    Ian as the Geopolitical Therapist to World Leaders

    1. TN

      have to in- advise, like, governments?

    2. IB

      Mm.

    3. TN

      And I know you work with companies, but do you ever have to advise governments?

    4. IB

      I talk to foreign leaders all the time, yeah.

    5. TN

      Do, do they take your advice, or do they just listen to you?

    6. IB

      You know, I think in, for many of them, I'm kind of like a geopolitical therapist.

    7. TN

      [laughs]

    8. IB

      Because these are people with no time.

    9. EU

      [laughs] That's a good one.

    10. TN

      [laughs] What a line.

    11. IB

      They're the busiest people.

    12. TN

      A geopolitical therapist. [laughs]

    13. IB

      They're the busiest people. They have no time. The fact that they're giving you an hour or a half an hour-

    14. EU

      Yeah

    15. IB

      ... if you're a head of state, is like the most valuable thing they could possibly give you. And what they spend most of their time working on is really, really pressing, immediate, narrow problems.

    16. EU

      Huh.

    17. IB

      And what they really wanna be doing, because they're a head of state or they're a foreign minister or they're what have you, um, in a position of real authority is they wanna be able to spend a little time thinking about how the world is changing.

    18. TN

      Oh, okay.

    19. IB

      And, and that's really what I think we end up spending most of our time doing, is giving them a little bit of that that they don't have. And I'm not blowing smoke up their ass. I'm not telling them what they wanna hear. I'm very happy if we have disagreements on stuff, because I don't need anything from them, you know?

    20. TN

      Hmm.

    21. IB

      I'm not working for them. I'm not taking money from them. It's just a, it's a sharing of information.

    22. EU

      For a person like you who's met every sort of powerful person in the world, I suppose this question might be a bit weird, because revealing our strategy when we do this podcast, we always think our guest must f- must not feel the transition between them having a normal conversation with just anybody and being interviewed. It's not an interview. So they must get through a pathway. They can get through what they do, and then we can just also understand who they are. So what strategy did you think you're going to use to get through to who we really are as, as hosts of this podcast?

    23. IB

      So-

    24. EU

      When you, when you're thinking about it, you're like, "What's going on?"

    25. IB

      I feel like I know Trevor a little.

    26. EU

      Yeah.

    27. IB

      Uh, both, yeah, as a public figure, but also because we've met, uh, informally a few times.

    28. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    29. IB

      Um, I feel like we're simpatico. Um, I, I certainly, uh, have a, have a warmth towards his curiousness-

    30. EU

      Mm

  17. 1:24:281:27:10

    What the World Gets Wrong About Russia

    1. IB

      they feel. I mean, this is a country that's lost empire. This is a country whose-

    2. TN

      Hm

    3. IB

      ... total economy is smaller than Canada. This is a country that used to take such pride in having the best culture, uh, uh, of anyone in the world, that all of their college kids had read all this incredible literature and knew all the top artists, and now the government has stopped investing in this completely. In science, they had the world-class scientists. Soviet Union collapsed, and all these American companies would go, and IBM and Boeing, and they'd hire the best scientists-

    4. TN

      A few of them

    5. IB

      ... mathematicians. And they don't have that anymore.

    6. TN

      Hm.

    7. IB

      And, and it, you feel this sense. They have the such pride, such Russian pride in their nation, in their history. It's not about money.

    8. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    9. IB

      It never was about money. You know, remember, this was a whole system of, you know, they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.

    10. TN

      Yeah

    11. IB

      Right? But the personal connections-

    12. TN

      Mm

    13. IB

      ... and the history. And this is a place that, yes, there's a lot of suffering, there's a lot of tragedy, but you get through it because there's a sense of responsibility and greatness.

    14. TN

      Hm. And pride

    15. IB

      And they have lost so much of that

    16. TN

      I know you can't predict another reality, but do you think it would've been different if the US and the world had done a better job of bringing Russia in post-

    17. IB

      Of course.

    18. TN

      You think it would've been-

    19. IB

      And I also think it would've been different if their own, um, oligarchs that were connected were not so rapacious, were not so kleptocratic-

    20. TN

      Yeah

    21. IB

      ... did not rip everybody off and take that money out of the country for themselves.

    22. TN

      Yeah. And run.

    23. IB

      Both of those things. So the economic shock therapy that the Americans offered to them was nowhere near what was useful for them, given the ability-

    24. TN

      Okay. Got it, got it

    25. IB

      ... to strip out the wealth, and also the fact that the Soviet Union dropped in America's laps. You kind of won it. You didn't fight over it. It wasn't like World War II where you almost lost your way of life for everybody.

    26. TN

      Hm.

    27. IB

      Here it was like, "Well, we don't need to rebuild these guys."

    28. TN

      Mm.

    29. IB

      We rebuilt the Japanese. We rebuilt the Germans. These were our enemies. It wasn't just our allies. We rebuilt them, and then we created the UN. That was American.

    30. TN

      Yeah.

  18. 1:27:101:32:54

    Venezuela, Oil & America's Real Interests

    1. TN

      I was joking with Eugene about this the other day and I said, it, it, a- as much as America will say certain things, it is funny how, uh, half of the stories/ all of them sort of end in oil.

    2. IB

      Mm-hmm.

    3. TN

      Doesn't matter what it is.

    4. IB

      Yeah.

    5. TN

      You know, they'll be like, "Oh, Iran, terrible regime, and they're plotting and the oil." You know, "Oh, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, this evil person. Weapons of mass oil." You, you, you know, what, what they're doing, uh, uh, uh-

    6. EU

      Gaddafi

    7. TN

      ... oil.

    8. EU

      Mm.

    9. TN

      Gaza.

    10. EU

      Oil.

    11. TN

      Oh my God.

    12. EU

      Nigeria.

    13. TN

      Oil.

    14. IB

      No, not really. Not that-

    15. TN

      These are, no, no, no. [laughs]

    16. IB

      But that's why we don't care as much. No, I'm not, that was the counterpoint.

    17. TN

      That's true as well, though.

    18. IB

      But, but I'm saying being in there.

    19. TN

      If there's somewhere America goes into, though.

    20. EU

      Oil.

    21. TN

      Oil.

    22. IB

      Yeah.

    23. TN

      Hm.

    24. IB

      Oil.

    25. TN

      I'm sure it's not that simple. I, I'm, I'm sure it's not that simple. But if you are, and you are literally somebody who studies this for a living, what do you make of this situation? It, are these the actions of a country that might end up fighting another war with a country that happens to have oil?

    26. IB

      No.

    27. TN

      No, you don't think so?

    28. IB

      No, because first of all, first of all, because Trump I think really does fundamentally understand that the US has gotten involved in a lot of very expensive long wars, and he's willing to do anything to stop that. He doesn't want boots on the ground and many years on him.

    29. TN

      Yeah.

    30. IB

      I mean, he ended the war in Afghanistan by cutting a really crappy deal with the Taliban, but at least he ended the war.

  19. 1:32:541:36:27

    Has America Lost Its Moral Authority?

    1. TN

      wonder when I hear some of these stories if ... I mean, I don't know if it was ever true, but I, but I sometimes wonder if America has given up its moral authority and moral superiority to be able to, like, say these things in, in the world. I actually think, too, um, I think it was, I think it was Israel's prime minister or somebody high up in the government who came and gave a speech at the UN. You know when people were complaining, they're like, "Oh, Israel did this," and you, uh, when they, when they bombed in Qatar.

    2. IB

      Mm-hmm.

    3. TN

      Right? And they were like, "Oh, w- to do this on another nation's soil," or ... And then they were like, "Well, uh, America did it." And they listed off, like, a few other countries and, like, they did it. They're like, "So how are we different?"

    4. IB

      Hmm.

    5. TN

      And it was an interesting moment because it, it was, it was weird that the response to, "Why did you break the international law?" was, "We all do."

    6. IB

      Hmm.

    7. TN

      Do, do, do you know what I mean?

    8. IB

      Of course I do. And, and it, it is, on the one hand, the fact that the United States has historically held itself up as some exceptional, indispensable nation-

    9. TN

      Yeah

    10. IB

      ... means that even though the Americans have given so much more in foreign aid, even though the US has played so much more of a leadership role in the IMF and the World Bank and doing so many things that really matter, in philanthropy also and promoting Americans to do that, but the hypo- when the hypocrisy happens-

    11. TN

      Yeah

    12. IB

      ... and let's face it, for the US, the hypocrisy happens at huge scale in Iraq, you know, or in Abu Ghraib, right? And, and, you know, or, or in Guantanamo.

    13. TN

      Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.

    14. IB

      And so many examples of this, or with the global financial crisis.

    15. TN

      Yep.

    16. IB

      You know, so many examples of this. Then suddenly all of these other countries are pointing fingers. And, and, and the Americans were never as much of a shining light beacon on the hill as we put ourselves out. And let's face it, we almost didn't get involved in World War II, and that would've been a huge mistake. We were late to the game, and it was only because of, um-

    17. TN

      Pearl Harbor

    18. IB

      ... Pearl Harbor.

    19. TN

      Yeah.

    20. IB

      And, and, and, you know, it was, uh, the America first, um, concept started then with Lindbergh and the movement of why would we care about these Europeans way over there-

    21. TN

      Has nothing to do with us

    22. IB

      ... really far, has nothing to do with us. Hear shades of that today, right? In the national security strategy document, for example, and with Trump saying, "You guys have... It's your problem. Ukraine's far away." Um, but still, if you had to compare the United States with what the Chinese would do globally or what the Russians would do globally over the last 50, 60, 70 years, you would on balance take the US. Now, the question is today, would you still make a strong call for that?

    23. TN

      Hmm.

    24. IB

      Not as clear. A lot of countries around the world would say that the United States has become actively adversarial. A lot of countries would say that. The Canadians would say that, which is crazy.

    25. TN

      Yeah, Canadians never say anything mean.

    26. IB

      Yeah, and now they do, and they won an election on that, and their population is saying, "We gotta find a way to just work more with the Europeans, work more with everybody than the Americans." And they are so incredibly integrated with the US economy, it's not like-

    27. TN

      Yeah

    28. IB

      ... and security.

    29. TN

      Yeah.

    30. IB

      It's not like they have much of a choice, but it's hugely popular in Canada to say, "We can't, we can never go back to the trusted relationship we used to have with the US."

  20. 1:36:271:50:32

    Ian Bremmer's Biggest Unanswered Questions

    1. TN

      what are some of the questions you have now that you haven't yet found the answers for?

    2. IB

      In the world?

    3. TN

      Yeah, yeah, just things w- that you're pondering and, and puzzling through but you, you haven't yet struck on a satisfactory answer.

    4. IB

      Uh, oh, I want to know when, um, artificial intelligence can provide, um, answers on a large number of topics that are as good or better than human beings, I want to know what that does to political power. I want to know how the Chinese Communist Party deals with that when Xi Jinping is supposed to be, like, the oracle from which all information comes down. Is it repression? Does it change their system? I'd love to know that. Want to-

    5. TN

      Maybe, maybe they'll just have, like, a ... They'll just ... Their AI, I think their solution's the easiest. They just have to make sure that their AI just says, like you say to AI in China-

    6. IB

      Hmm

    7. TN

      ... "Hey, what's happening here?" Or, "What do you ... How do I fix this?" Or, and then their AI must just be like-

    8. IB

      She says.

    9. TN

      I just asked Xi and, um-

    10. IB

      [laughs]

    11. TN

      ... she was saying that you should, uh, put your-

    12. IB

      Yeah

    13. TN

      ... yeah, put the cupboard together like this. You know, uh, she actually told me how this works. Chat CCP

    14. IB

      I like it.

    15. TN

      Look at this. You see it?

    16. IB

      Yeah.

    17. EU

      Sometimes it would be like, "That's what she said."

    18. TN

      [laughs]

    19. EU

      Oh, 'cause-

    20. IB

      That's a nice one. That's what she said.

    21. TN

      That also works.

    22. IB

      That actually works.

    23. TN

      Together.

    24. IB

      [laughs]

    25. TN

      Look at this.

    26. IB

      We've got a show here.

    27. TN

      I mean, this is, this is doing something.

    28. IB

      Yeah.

    29. TN

      I, I, can I ... No, honestly, I genuinely think this is just me with my just wandering through the streets brain.

    30. IB

      Mm-hmm.

Episode duration: 1:50:34

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