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What Now? With Trevor NoahWhat Now? With Trevor Noah

What the West Gets Wrong About China | Alice Han & Trevor Noah

This week, Trevor and Eugene are joined by China expert Alice Han to unpack why so much of what the West believes about China misses the mark. They break down China's "Four Ds”: debt, lagging demand, an aging demography, and the threat of destruction over Taiwan. They also explore how the legacy of the one-child policy helped create a generation of wildly successful women, an extreme male dating shortage, and a booming market for AI boyfriends who always know exactly what to say. Naturally, the conversation ends with Trevor and Eugene wondering whether their next career should be running a Chinese matchmaking business. If you haven't already.... Subscribe to the channel here: http://bit.ly/SubscribeTrevorNoah Or follow the podcast on your other favorite platforms... SiriusXM Apple Podcasts - https://bit.ly/WhatNowOnApplePodcasts Spotify - https://bit.ly/WhatNowOnSpotify 00:00 - Intro 01:20 - Why Alice Thought Trevor’s Invite Was a Scam 03:00 - Why Most Western Analysis on China Is Wrong 05:00 - Why US Lawmakers Still Don’t Understand China 06:30 - China’s Massive Transformation Since COVID 07:30 - The Semiconductor War 11:30 - How China Actually Works 17:30 - China’s 4 Biggest Problems 20:00 - China’s Demographic Crisis 22:00 - Why Chinese Women Don’t Want Kids 29:00 - China’s Dating Crisis 34:00 - Immigration, Japan & Cultural Identity 38:00 - Why China Dominates EVs and Robotics 41:00 - Will China Invade Taiwan? 47:00 - How Xi Jinping Built His Power 52:00 - China’s Global Expansion Strategy 56:00 - What Chinese People Actually Think 1:00:00 - BYD, Subsidies & EV Dominance 1:08:00 - The Future of Robots 1:19:00 - AI Talent and China’s Next Generation 1:23:00 - Where Trevor Should Visit in China

Alice HanguestEugenehostTrevor Noahhost
Jul 2, 20261h 30mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:001:20

    Intro

    1. AH

      [upbeat music] If you w- uh, watch, um, videos on Chinese TikTok-

    2. EU

      Yeah

    3. AH

      ... there's a lot of girl-

    4. EU

      Is that Weibo?

    5. AH

      Um-

    6. EU

      Or is it, or is it just-

    7. AH

      It's, it's Douyin. Like Douyin-

    8. EU

      Douyin, okay

    9. AH

      ... and Xiaohongshu, which is Red Note. Um-

    10. EU

      Say that, say that last part. The last-

    11. AH

      Xiaohongshu

    12. EU

      ... yeah.

    13. AH

      Red- it's a, it's-

    14. EU

      Xiaohongshu?

    15. AH

      Yeah.

    16. EU

      'Cause that's, uh, sometimes I feel like you like you are Xiaohongshu. Xiaohongshu.

    17. AH

      [laughs]

    18. EU

      So you [laughs]

    19. TN

      I can roll, I can roll like that.

    20. EU

      [laughs]

    21. TN

      Thank you, Eugene. Xiaohongshu.

    22. EU

      Thank you. Xiaohongshu.

    23. AH

      Oh my God, you have such a good accent.

    24. TN

      Oh.

    25. EU

      Mm.

    26. TN

      Thank you very much.

    27. AH

      Yeah, no, seriously. Seriously. You could, you could go on to Chinese TV and be-

    28. TN

      Oh. [laughs]

    29. EU

      Okay. Oh, damn. Damn.

    30. TN

      Yeah, it's, um-

  2. 1:203:00

    Why Alice Thought Trevor’s Invite Was a Scam

    1. EU

      Just like conspiracy theories.

    2. TN

      [laughs]

    3. EU

      Or sometimes charges when they're being pressed against you, and you're like, "Him, too. He was there." [laughs]

    4. AH

      [laughs] Oh my God.

    5. TN

      I've never heard that one, compliments are like conspiracy theories.

    6. EU

      I made it up.

    7. TN

      No, I, that's what I'm saying. I've never heard that. I like that.

    8. EU

      [laughs]

    9. TN

      I like, that's a fresh one.

    10. EU

      Alice, go ahead. Tell him.

    11. AH

      Oh, I got, so I got the email from you guys two weeks ago, and I legitimately thought it was a scam. I was thinking, "Why the heck is Trevor Noah-

    12. EU

      [laughs]

    13. TN

      You

    14. AH

      ... A, interested in China, and B-

    15. EU

      [laughs]

    16. AH

      ... why is his team emailing me?"

    17. EU

      [laughs]

    18. AH

      And so I sat on it for two days thinking, "This is just n- this is probably-

    19. EU

      [laughs]

    20. AH

      ... another one of those AI scam artists that are just creating random emails out there for people."

    21. TN

      You, okay, you've made me realize something. I think you're not, you are not the first, second, nor third, nor fourth person who said this. I need to find a different way to reach out to people then because I, because ma-

    22. EU

      DMs

    23. TN

      ... 'cause many people think that when-

    24. EU

      DMs are the o-

    25. TN

      ... when we're reaching out, it's a scam.

    26. EU

      Yeah, but DMs are the original authenticator.

    27. TN

      Okay. So I'ma just like reach out in the DMs.

    28. EU

      If someone DMs you, you know it's true, right? Alice, if, if you had gotten a DM from him, would you have thought it was a scam?

    29. AH

      And he's got the blue tick verified. Yes.

    30. EU

      There.

  3. 3:005:00

    Why Most Western Analysis on China Is Wrong

    1. TN

      i- that the world has ever dealt with.

    2. EU

      Relationships.

    3. TN

      And that is ... W- uh, not relationships-

    4. EU

      [laughs]

    5. TN

      ... but that is one of them, Eugene. But in many ways, actually, Alice is a relationship expert.

    6. EU

      Mm.

    7. TN

      It's just a different type of relationship, a geo- geopolitical relationship.

    8. EU

      Aha.

    9. TN

      [laughs]

    10. EU

      [laughs]

    11. AH

      [laughs]

    12. TN

      Um, no, but, but, but you, you, you are considered an expert on China, which is ... It, I ... Am I correct in saying it is one of the most complicated countries to actually be an expert in-

    13. EU

      Sure

    14. TN

      ... because of how multilayered it is?

    15. AH

      I completely agree, and we were just talking earlier how my pet peeve is the amount of white people that write about China without having ever gone or lived there.

    16. TN

      That is hilarious. [laughs]

    17. AH

      And they have a framework by which they analyze China.

    18. TN

      Mm.

    19. AH

      They think it's the next Soviet Union. They think it's the next imperial Germany. And, and my f- real shtick is you've gotta, and you probably understand this better than most people, you've gotta understand the culture from the ground up to really understand what the country's about, and it's a very complicated, diverse history and culture. It's, it's entirely relevant in this new technological geopolitical age, but I think you're completely right. It's one of the hardest countries to get right, and increasingly so in the last decade because, A, people aren't traveling in the way that they used to. B-

    20. TN

      Mm

    21. AH

      ... Western journalists aren't living thems- there. Some were kicked out. And C, just in general, people have this ideological frameworking and-

    22. TN

      Yeah

    23. AH

      ... and fear-mongering about China without really trying to understand it.

    24. TN

      Uh, did you see that, uh, that trip recently where a few US, I don't know if they were senators or just, uh, Congress people, went to China. It was their first time, which also shocked me, by the way. These are-

    25. EU

      It shocked you that Americans left America?

    26. TN

      [laughs] Don't do that, bro.

    27. AH

      That they have a passport.

    28. TN

      Don't do that, bro. You, both of you, don't do that.

    29. AH

      [laughs]

    30. TN

      Don't do that. Hey.

  4. 5:006:30

    Why US Lawmakers Still Don’t Understand China

    1. TN

      China. [laughs] You're part of the problem, buddy. Um, no, I w- I was shocked that lawmakers-

    2. EU

      Mm-hmm

    3. TN

      ... could go to China for the first time, and I mean, like, deep into their tenure, like deep, deep, these people have been serving in Congress forever. This was their first trip to China. And then while they were there, they were, they were just mesmerized by everything.

    4. EU

      Mm.

    5. TN

      And they came back saying, "Yeah, well, I mean, China wasn't ... I didn't expect it, and I, I couldn't believe what they're doing out there. And, you know, I, I mean, uh, there's a lot of things I ... I've got a new, uh, perspective on China." And I was like, wait, wait, wait, wait. I understand if an idiot like me is living at home and has an opinion on China.

    6. EU

      Right.

    7. TN

      That's fine.

    8. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    9. TN

      It's not great, but it's fine. If you are making laws and you're-

    10. AH

      Mm

    11. TN

      ... deciding policies between yourself and China, and you know nothing about China, w- like, what are we doing?

    12. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    13. TN

      Do, do you know, do you know what I mean?

    14. AH

      Yeah, yeah, 100%. It, and I love that imagery of, of Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, marveling at the, the ceiling as he goes into-

    15. TN

      [laughs]

    16. AH

      ... to Beijing during the Trump, uh, Xi summit. But that really sums it up, is I think w- Since COVID, uh, people haven't really been traveling to China in the same way. Now, that's changed in the last year or two because there's now visa-free travel policies and, and now it's trending China maxing to go to China.

    17. TN

      Did that really happen because of IShowSpeed?

    18. AH

      Well, th- I think, yeah. I think he was r- he's a huge star, by the way, in China, and I love that.

    19. TN

      That-

    20. AH

      But-

    21. TN

      That's insane that that happened

    22. AH

      ... but it, but he's not the only one. There's a ton of American vloggers, you can see this across YouTube, who in the last 18 months have been going to-

    23. TN

      Yeah

    24. AH

      ... China, getting

  5. 6:307:30

    China’s Massive Transformation Since COVID

    1. AH

      huge views, just showing-

    2. TN

      Yeah

    3. AH

      ... b- because China compared to Japan is way cheaper, and it's one of those underdog tourism destinations. It's been so m- developed since COVID.

    4. TN

      Yeah.

    5. AH

      The internal domestic indust- uh, uh, tourism industry, the logistics, the transport. So when people go there, they're so shocked that China's not the China of the 2010s. You know, remember the Beijing Olympics-

    6. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah

    7. AH

      ... and people were talking about pollution, and it was still-

    8. TN

      There was so much smog that people were saying they were, they were-

    9. AH

      Oh, yeah

    10. TN

      ... afraid that the athletes wouldn't be able to run. They wouldn't-

    11. AH

      Yeah.

    12. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    13. AH

      Yeah. So it's changed a huge amount, even in the last 10 years. And but my, to, uh, add to your point, Trevor, my problem is that they A, don't go there, and B, they don't really do the hard work of trying to understand, uh, both the intentions and capabilities of the Chinese government and the people. Uh, will give you a really good example. So the semiconductor policy that the Trump administration and the Biden s- administration put in, they thought it would be very, very easy if

  6. 7:3011:30

    The Semiconductor War

    1. AH

      to just cut off the hardware side of the AI, uh, development, meaning the chips, and that China would be behind. China would have no hope of ever catching up. Fast-forward a decade, and, you know, China's only a couple months lagging behind the frontier models in America.

    2. TN

      Yeah.

    3. AH

      Huawei just announced that by, uh, in the next couple years it will do under two nanometer chip production, which is as competitive as TSMC. That, I think, is so different from what people would have expected-

    4. TN

      Mm

    5. AH

      ... because they're not going to China. They're not understanding that, uh, what's actually happening at the government level but also in, in the companies, in the companies like Huawei, like, uh, SMIC, which is another chip company-

    6. TN

      Yeah, yeah, yeah

    7. AH

      ... Alibaba, uh, ByteDance. They're, they're hugely innovative companies, not just the kind of imitative China that we're so used to.

    8. TN

      Well, I, I think, I think it's because people keep an idea of a place or a people as they first learned of them.

    9. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    10. TN

      And I think we're all guilty of this in some way, shape, or form. Like in South Africa, one of the main things people would think about when they think about China is fake goods.

    11. AH

      Yeah.

    12. TN

      You know what I mean?

    13. EU

      Hey.

    14. TN

      Hong Kong.

    15. EU

      Hey, hey.

    16. TN

      I'm a Hong Kong.

    17. EU

      No, no, no.

    18. AH

      [laughs] .

    19. EU

      I would have thought-

    20. TN

      What would you have thought?

    21. EU

      Bruce Lee.

    22. TN

      The, I mean, fine.

    23. EU

      Yeah, but carry on. Mm-hmm.

    24. TN

      But, but no, but I'm serious.

    25. EU

      [laughs]

    26. TN

      You're not wrong. It was, it was kung fu movies.

    27. EU

      It was kung fu, yes.

    28. TN

      Kung fu movies.

    29. EU

      Drunken Master.

    30. TN

      And yeah, Drunken Master or-

  7. 11:3017:30

    How China Actually Works

    1. AH

      since then, it's, it's, it's rebounded remarkably in terms of favorability.

    2. TN

      Y- yeah, you know, that's, that is probably the strangest thing about China. Like, when I try and read about it and try and understand it, on the one hand, it seems like China runs, you know, the way the Chinese government runs the country is really structured and, and rigid. That's how it feels for me when I see it. I'm like, "Okay, they, they, they have an idea of where they're trying to go."

    3. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    4. TN

      It's multi-generational.

    5. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    6. TN

      It isn't constrained by the next election or democracy or, like, a thing that's gonna, like, throw it off course.

    7. EU

      Yeah, there's no campaigning or elections in China.

    8. TN

      Yeah, yeah. They're like, "No, no, no. This is our long-term plan."

    9. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    10. TN

      "It's gonna last longer than we're even alive, and this is where we're trying to get to."

    11. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    12. TN

      But it seems very rigid. It's like strict parents. That's how I feel like. I feel like China's government is like strict parents. But then at the same time, I'll see things that China's doing where I'm like, "That seems fun and rock and roll," and it doesn't match up with the idea that I have of a homogenous, like, strict parent-

    13. AH

      Mm-hmm

    14. TN

      ... if, if that makes sense. And I, I don't know, how should, how should we be thinking of China? Like, which, which China is the real one? Is it the place where everyone's building everything and they, they moving forward and, you know, there's, there's just, like, a boom happening in terms of-

    15. AH

      Yeah

    16. TN

      ... manufacturing, et cetera, et cetera, or is it the China that has, like, the strict government th- that defines how people live their lives every day?

    17. AH

      Yeah. It's honestly a cop-out answer, but both. This is gonna sound very wonky. There was a great paper by a Chinese economist over a decade ago in which he has a framework that China is a regionally distributed authoritarian regime. And what he means-

    18. TN

      Hmm

    19. AH

      ... by that is that, yes, you have the central government, which historically in China has been the emperor.

    20. TN

      Yeah.

    21. AH

      Um, there's a phrase in Chinese which is the, the mountains are high, but the emperor is far away, and that suggests-

    22. TN

      Wait, say that again. The mountains are high?

    23. AH

      The mountains are high, but the emperor's far away.

    24. TN

      Oh, I'd love that on my bio.

    25. AH

      [laughs]

    26. TN

      The mountains are high.

    27. AH

      And the emperor's far.

    28. TN

      Far away.

    29. AH

      And what it means by that is y- yes, you have central command, and the emperor, or in this case, the central government says, "You should do this. These are the targets for semiconductor output."

    30. TN

      Yeah.

  8. 17:3020:00

    China’s 4 Biggest Problems

    1. TN

      and, like, where, where does it diverge from the way the West portrays China's-

    2. AH

      Hmm

    3. TN

      ... issues or problems?

    4. AH

      Well, the West, insofar as I understand, portrays it a lot as, you know, "This is the problem with authoritarianism. It's a massive struggle-"

    5. TN

      Yep

    6. AH

      ... "between-"

    7. TN

      Yeah

    8. AH

      ... democracy and authoritarian regimes."

    9. EU

      They still see that little red book-

    10. AH

      Yeah, e-

    11. EU

      ... of Chairman Mao.

    12. AH

      Exactly. They, they have this kind of Maoist, uh, Marxist-Leninist framework, whereas in China they're thinking about structural issues. So what I have called, uh, the four Ds are, are the real problems in China that policymakers understand.

    13. TN

      Okay.

    14. AH

      And the, those four Ds are, number one, debt. You've got debt north of 300% of GDP. Uh, that's just a little bit lower than Japan, but that's a huge amount of debt, more than the US.

    15. TN

      Okay.

    16. AH

      Uh, that, why does that matter? It matters because it, it- Crowds out investment in more efficient areas of the economy, and it crowds out d- uh, domestic demand, which is the second D. You know, consumption has really underwhelmed and, and actually is underwhelming, uh, relative to pre-COVID trend, uh, because household savings rates have gone up. Households are-

    17. TN

      Mm

    18. AH

      ... less, you know, sp- um, you know, less keen to spend, like Americans for instance.

    19. TN

      Interesting.

    20. AH

      They don't use their credit card. There's no sort of tradition of using credit cards. People are more conservative when it comes to sp- you know, spending, uh, durable goods for instance. Uh, and n- and that has obviously got knock-on effects for the rest of the world because it means that if China wants to keep growing at 5% of GDP, then it needs to export even more to the rest of the world-

    21. TN

      Oh

    22. AH

      ... to maintain that growth.

    23. TN

      Okay.

    24. AH

      So that's the other side of this demand, uh, and debt problem. And-

    25. TN

      So, so if China's population is not bearing the brunt because it's not spending as much, it's not creating as much for China's economy-

    26. AH

      Yeah

    27. TN

      ... then China has to get that spending outside of China.

    28. AH

      Exactly.

    29. TN

      All right.

    30. AH

      And the strength of the American economy is that it is consumption and-

  9. 20:0022:00

    China’s Demographic Crisis

    1. AH

      birth rate since 1949, since record, on record, since the communists came to power. Um-

    2. TN

      Wow.

    3. EU

      And that's why I think you moving back home will be good. [laughs]

    4. AH

      [laughs] To, to fertility. Increase fertility.

    5. EU

      You're a nice young man. Settle down.

    6. TN

      [laughs]

    7. EU

      Leave the 40s alone. [laughs]

    8. AH

      [laughs] I didn't know this was gonna be this kind of podcast.

    9. EU

      Oh. [laughs]

    10. TN

      [laughs]

    11. AH

      There are too many tech bros-

    12. EU

      All of a sudden

    13. AH

      ... that are talking about pro-natalist policies.

    14. TN

      Oh, wow. [laughs]

    15. AH

      But speaking of, there is this one guy in, in China who's fascinating, just a side, side note. And I was talking about the 4D-

    16. TN

      This whole entire podcast is a side note.

    17. EU

      Is a side note.

    18. AH

      It's a side note.

    19. EU

      Yes.

    20. AH

      Okay.

    21. EU

      Feel free.

    22. AH

      Good. So there's a demography, um, professor who is also the chairman and founder of Ctrip, which is China's big, uh, trip booking platform.

    23. TN

      Okay.

    24. AH

      And he, um, uh, is now paying his employees $50,000 per baby because he's so worried about the demographic issue in China. Uh, you know, China's, um, you know, uh, replacement rate is now about one, meaning that the population is shrinking.

    25. TN

      Right.

    26. AH

      By 2040, one in three people will be above 60. Just think about-

    27. TN

      So it's quite, 'cause Germany's, Germany's is currently, like, 1.4.

    28. AH

      It's slightly higher than China.

    29. TN

      Yeah.

    30. AH

      Yeah.

  10. 22:0029:00

    Why Chinese Women Don’t Want Kids

    1. AH

      videos on Chinese TikTok-

    2. TN

      Yeah

    3. AH

      ... there's a lot of g-

    4. TN

      Is that Weibo? Or is, or is it just-

    5. AH

      Um, it's, it's Douyin. Like Douyin-

    6. TN

      Douyin, okay

    7. AH

      ... in Xiongshui, which is Red Note. Um-

    8. EU

      Say that, say that last part. The last-

    9. AH

      Xiongshui.

    10. EU

      Yeah.

    11. AH

      Red- It's, uh, it's-

    12. TN

      Xiongshui?

    13. AH

      Yeah.

    14. EU

      Mm-hmm.

    15. AH

      So, so-

    16. EU

      'Cause that's how, sometimes I feel like you're like, "Do you like Xiongshui?"

    17. TN

      Xiongshui.

    18. EU

      So you ... [laughs]

    19. AH

      [laughs]

    20. TN

      I can roll, I can roll like that.

    21. EU

      [laughs]

    22. TN

      Xièxie, Eugene. Xiongshui.

    23. EU

      Xièxie. Xiongshui.

    24. AH

      Oh my God, you have such a good accent.

    25. TN

      Oh.

    26. EU

      Mm.

    27. TN

      Thank you very much.

    28. AH

      Yeah, no, seriously.

    29. TN

      Xièxie.

    30. AH

      Seriously. You could, you could go onto Chinese TV and be-

  11. 29:0034:00

    China’s Dating Crisis

    1. TN

      what is, what is the, the, the breakdown? While we're still talking about-

    2. EU

      Hmm

    3. TN

      ... demographics in China. We're seeing this trend around the world. Is it the same in China, where the men are now becoming less favored in the workplace at all, are finding themselves in a hyper-competitive world where they're actually, like, losing a bit of the race? Is that also seen in China, or is it, or is it different?

    4. AH

      Not to the same degree, and it's not talked about as much as it is in the West.

    5. TN

      Okay.

    6. AH

      But the, uh, and, and certainly not as much as, as, as Korea, where I know there is a right-wing incel movement that is anti-women because, to your point-

    7. TN

      Yes

    8. AH

      ... they, they feel as though the deck is increasingly stacked against them. That quite- hasn't quite happened as of yet. Uh, but I think more importantly is this kind of, um, you know, consternation, uh, especially amongst men, that they can't find women. Because one, like, one of the other unintended consequences, although you, you could have easily predicted this based on human nature, is we've got a massive, um, uh, skew towards the male population-

    9. TN

      Oh

    10. AH

      ... as opposed to female. So there are way more men-

    11. TN

      Oh, wow

    12. AH

      ... in my generation in China than there are women.

    13. TN

      Because of the one-child policy.

    14. AH

      Because of the one-child policy.

    15. TN

      Oh, wow.

    16. AH

      And people favored, they would rather have one, one, one son rather than a daughter.

    17. TN

      Oh, boy.

    18. AH

      And, and as a result, dating is r- just really tough. The, the, the barrier to entry to date as a Chinese man historically, uh, and still is present today- Is you've gotta have your own apartment, your own car-

    19. TN

      Mm

    20. AH

      ... a really stable job-

    21. TN

      Mm. Mm

    22. AH

      ... uh, and that's really, really tough. And that's why we were talking about this earlier. There's been a trend, um, on, um, social media in terms of vloggers, but i- it's been happening really since Russia-Ukraine of, of, um, Chinese men going out and finding Ukrainian women and bringing them back to China.

    23. TN

      No ways.

    24. AH

      And the Ukrainian women have really popular vlogs saying how great China is compared to-

    25. TN

      No ways

    26. AH

      ... [laughs] Russia or Ukraine, and how great Chinese men are compared to Russian men because they d- they're responsible financially, they take care of the kids, they, they take care of their women. It's, it's a, it's a fascinating thing. One last data point. I was in Shanghai a couple weeks ago, uh, and in, uh, Tomorrow Square, which is, uh, right in the central of Shanghai, there are now, um, these matchmakers that just sit out there, and I literally saw hundreds of them-

    27. TN

      Mm

    28. AH

      ... in the square-

    29. TN

      In the park. I've seen this

    30. AH

      ... with posters.

  12. 34:0038:00

    Immigration, Japan & Cultural Identity

    1. EU

      But I think that's what's happening now in China, right? When Chinese men go out there, they're like, "Yo, you don't know how hot I am in, in Ukraine."

    2. TN

      [laughs]

    3. EU

      "I'm changing all day long."

    4. TN

      Good for them. Good for them. I love that, actually. We're gonna continue this conversation right after this short break. [upbeat music] How easy is it to, um, to move to China? 'Cause from what I've read, China's not necessarily like an, like an immigration country.

    5. AH

      No, no. But I think Japan is less of a... Well, Japan's starting to change now. But J-

    6. TN

      When I was in Japan, sorry to cut you off. When I was in Japan, there were newspaper articles. It was interesting 'cause the, the, our tour guide was translating it for us, but there were whole newspapers-

    7. EU

      You made your tour guide translate newspaper articles?

    8. TN

      I didn't make. Please. I didn't make anyone do anything, Eugene.

    9. AH

      [laughs]

    10. TN

      He is the tour guide, was... I was just saying, "What's in the news today?" And then he was telling me some of the stories.

    11. EU

      And then he said, "Ah, not much."

    12. TN

      No, and then he told me.

    13. EU

      Then you said, "No, really."

    14. TN

      [laughs] No.

    15. EU

      "What's in the news today?"

    16. TN

      Yeah, I was just asking 'cause I, I'm curious. I wanted to know what's happening-

    17. EU

      Right

    18. TN

      ... in Tokyo while we're there.

    19. EU

      Right.

    20. TN

      And one of the big stories in the newspaper was a continuing discussion where they were... Essentially, the headline was, "Should Japanese people be less, um, xenophobic?"

    21. AH

      Mm.

    22. TN

      Because they're fully [laughs] they're fully like, "We don't want anyone who's not Japanese here. Don't bring them into our country. We're not mixing cultures. We're not..." But then the article's like... It was weird because the article was basically like, "We agree. We shouldn't let anyone in, but it's not working."

    23. EU

      [laughs]

    24. TN

      "But we agree we shouldn't let anyone in."

    25. EU

      [laughs]

    26. TN

      "But what are we gonna do about this? Should we maybe bring... Maybe we should start bringing people in who wanna learn Japanese and wanna learn Japanese culture-

    27. AH

      Yeah. Culture. Yeah

    28. TN

      ... and they wanna become Japanese. Maybe we start with them."

    29. AH

      Yeah.

    30. TN

      And then we, we were, we were out having sushi at a, you know those tiny, tiny, tiny little place like s- like beautiful sushi places-

  13. 38:0041:00

    Why China Dominates EVs and Robotics

    1. AH

      robots in a second.

    2. TN

      We're definitely-

    3. AH

      But culture-

    4. TN

      ... not gonna forget robots.

    5. AH

      [laughs] Especially not sex robots in Japan. [laughs]

    6. TN

      Hey, hey, hey. Why don't you just lead with that?

    7. AH

      [laughs] So you have the edit.

    8. TN

      Geopolitical AI economist.

    9. AH

      Okay. [laughs]

    10. TN

      Sex robot.

    11. AH

      [laughs]

    12. TN

      Advocate.

    13. AH

      [laughs]

    14. TN

      We're going to China, my friend. [laughs]

    15. AH

      [laughs] It produces the most robots in the world. Okay, so-

    16. TN

      Oh, man. [laughs]

    17. AH

      So, [laughs] sorry, guys.

    18. TN

      [laughs]

    19. AH

      So this is where culture's really important. So Japan historically, you know, you had the Meiji Restoration, this closing off of Western influence.

    20. TN

      Yes.

    21. AH

      Because they feel very fearful of that-

    22. TN

      Mm-hmm

    23. AH

      ... and very strong and convicted, and they should in their traditions and culture. Uh, but I think if I compare it to China, which is by no means perfect, there's, China has culturally a more curiosity and open-mindedness towards the West.

    24. TN

      Oh.

    25. AH

      This is why it was able to invite a lot of foreign investment in the '80s and '90s, obviously copycat it, imitate it-

    26. TN

      Yeah

    27. AH

      ... and then iterate on it and make it better. Um, but you also see it at a, a, um, in terms of an anecdotal level, like, I go to a bookstore in China, and I see Elon Musk and his mother's face everywhere, Maye Musk. Like, she's a freaking star in China.

    28. TN

      Really?

    29. AH

      They are obsessed with the family. Uh, but that-

    30. TN

      Hmm

  14. 41:0047:00

    Will China Invade Taiwan?

    1. AH

      robots, I'm a little bit doubtful, but that, that's another kind of-

    2. TN

      Oh, we'll get to...

    3. AH

      Right

    4. TN

      ... okay, we'll table robots.

    5. AH

      And then D, fourth D is destruction, which is the other challe- challenge. It's related to Taiwan. Are we gonna have, in the next couple years, a big showdown over Taiwan?

    6. TN

      How real is that, though? 'Cause it, it feels like that's been on everyone's lips for-

    7. AH

      For the longest time. Mm-hmm

    8. TN

      ... it, it's in the same way, and, you know, not to flatten these, these topics down, but, like, in the same way the world has been warned about Iranian missiles s- like, for decades-

    9. AH

      People-

    10. TN

      ... Iran-

    11. AH

      ... have risked destruction

    12. TN

      ... Iran's gonna make a nuke. Iran's gonna make a nuke. Iran-

    13. AH

      Yeah.

    14. TN

      And it's like, here we are decades later, and they still haven't made a nuke. How real is the threat of China invi- invading Taiwan? Because it, to me, it seems imminent, but I remember even when I was, like, on The Daily Show and we were covering it, it felt like it was weeks away. And then weeks later, it felt like it w- weeks away, and then it was weeks, and then it was like, oh, it's been years, and still weeks away. And then even now when I read the news, they're like, "I think it's happening. I think it's happening next week."

    15. AH

      Yeah.

    16. TN

      "I think it's happening next week. I think it's happening next week." And then I remember watching videos of people who live in Taiwan, and then they were just, like, chilled.

    17. AH

      Yeah.

    18. TN

      But the media that I was consuming in America was going, "Oh, man, it's very stressful. It's about to happen. It's about to happen." So, like, how, how real is the threat?

    19. AH

      I certainly don't think it's real in the next two years.

    20. TN

      No?

    21. AH

      Uh, there's a lot of internal politics that I can get into in just a bit in China.

    22. TN

      Two years, though.

    23. AH

      In the next two years I think it's highly unlikely.

    24. TN

      Okay.

    25. AH

      But, um, fast-forward 10 years or more, I think the probabilities go up, uh, mainly because, uh, you know, the Chinese will start to have superiority in terms of the military balance of power.

    26. TN

      Okay.

    27. AH

      Uh, especially if the US doesn't do more to really invest in military defense capabilities. Uh, and, and certainly you've seen in the last couple years that, uh, the spending on debt has outpaced the spending on the military. This is a law-

    28. TN

      Mm-hmm

    29. AH

      ... in history by, coined by my boss Niall Ferguson, called Ferguson's Law, so shout out to him, which is that he looked at, um, empires through history.

    30. TN

      Yeah.

  15. 47:0052:00

    How Xi Jinping Built His Power

    1. TN

      um, expansion if they went into China, into, uh, Taiwan.

    2. EU

      Taiwan.

    3. AH

      Yeah. So-

    4. TN

      That's, no, that's an interesting way to think about it.

    5. AH

      Yeah. And then she ha- she has time, Xi Jinping, the president, has time on his side. He's 72 this year. He's, he's built-

    6. TN

      Still a young man

    7. AH

      ... he's still relatively young.

    8. TN

      Still a young man.

    9. AH

      Compared to American presidents.

    10. TN

      A fresh, young lotus.

    11. AH

      [laughs]

    12. TN

      That's what he is, huh? Living his dream. Xi Jinping. Is it ... Are we saying it right when we say Xi Jinping, or is it, like, is it, is it backwards?

    13. EU

      Xi.

    14. TN

      Is it-

    15. AH

      Um, oh no, it's right. Xi Jinping.

    16. TN

      It is.

    17. AH

      It's, it's the last name first and then the-

    18. TN

      Okay, it is Xi Jinping

    19. AH

      ... and then the, yeah.

    20. TN

      'Cause I remember when we f- when we found out, like, Shinzo Abe, w- it was Abe Shinzo, and we were saying, we were basically saying his name backwards-

    21. AH

      Mm

    22. TN

      ... the whole time. And then all of a sudden someone was like, "No, it's wrong."

    23. AH

      No, it, it, he, he's got it-

    24. TN

      Okay, so it is Xi Jinping.

    25. AH

      He's got it right. Yeah, exactly.

    26. TN

      Okay. What, what is, what has made him so successful? Like, it seems like every ... Again, when you read Western media, and this is something, by the way, that I, I think is interesting to your point. I, I only realized the other day, China is one of the few, like, major countries where its news is also being written in its language.

    27. AH

      Mm.

    28. TN

      So if you cannot read Chinese, or Mandarin, Cantonese, whichever one it's being written in, you are missing out on a lot of the nuance and the actual Reporting and storytelling that's happening in the coun-

    29. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    30. TN

      Does that make sense?

  16. 52:0056:00

    China’s Global Expansion Strategy

    1. TN

      many Americans I think sometimes will take for granted that part of the reason America is as powerful as it is, and has been as powerful as it has been, is primarily because of its soft power. America didn't go around the world blowing up the world to get the power it had. It went to Africa with things like US aid. You know, it helped, um, European governments build themselves up after World War II. It gave low interest loans. It really became the, the benefactor of the world.

    2. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    3. TN

      It helped with trade. It inspired-

    4. AH

      The sugar daddy.

    5. TN

      Yeah, it was, it was really the sugar daddy of the world.

    6. AH

      Yeah.

    7. TN

      And that made the world like America and aspire to, to America. Over the past few years, we've seen America take a step back and go, "Hey, w- America is America. We don't want anything to do with the rest of the world. Don't involve us," and, and that's that. And then you see it in Africa. Like, China's gone in and, you know, has built ports and built roads and-

    8. AH

      Railways

    9. TN

      ... railways and airports, and created these interesting agreements where, like, the Chinese will never lose in the deal.

    10. AH

      Mm-hmm.

    11. TN

      You know? So it's like either they get their money back or they now own infrastructure in Africa.

    12. AH

      Yeah, yeah.

    13. TN

      Um, we've seen the, the Chinese reach out to, like, Brazil and create new deals that never existed for, like, soy exports, et cetera.

    14. AH

      Mm.

    15. TN

      W- w- within China, what do you think they are seeing with America pulling back, and what do you think they're trying to do? Like, i- is there a concerted effort to fill the gap, or is it just them creating another version of a Silk Road?

    16. AH

      Mm-hmm. Yeah. Uh, lots of people talk about policymakers in China as being majority engineers in the, in the way that, uh, is different from the US where they're majority lawyers. But I, uh, the, uh, the other thing that I think is interesting about policymakers is that they are very keen historians. A lot of them read history, and they have looked at American history and gone, "Actually, it's not that great to be everyone's enabler and sugar daddy." You know, there's just a lot of-

    17. TN

      Oh

    18. AH

      ... these commitments that you have to make.

    19. TN

      Obligations.

    20. AH

      On obligations.

    21. TN

      Expectations.

    22. AH

      Um, you know, it's far better if, you know ... Actually, we have, uh, trade with all these different countries, and we help them build infrastructure that it actually accelerates trade, so they buy more of our products.

    23. TN

      Interesting.

    24. AH

      And we can have, get more commodities like cobalt and lithium from Africa so that we don't have any supply chain problems like the Americans, Europe- and Europeans have had. So we can really dominate across technologies and supply chains. That is the, the thinking, which is let's have more influence globally, but maybe more preeminence regionally in Asia-

    25. TN

      Yeah

    26. AH

      ... where we're looked to as, uh, within the tributary system, we're looked to as the center. But I, I don't think policymakers have this view that it's worthwhile or worth their while to become the next global policeman, uh, the next-

    27. TN

      Hmm

    28. AH

      ... sugar daddy.

    29. TN

      Hmm.

    30. AH

      Because they've seen what that means, you know, costly battles, uh, increasing deficit spending, uh, in the American context, and they increasingly look at the model in America and see a lot of problems. But one last thing I'll say, which I think is underappreciated- So in the 1990s, the G7 countries comprised about 70% of global GDP.

  17. 56:001:00:00

    What Chinese People Actually Think

    1. TN

      [upbeat music] How do people on the ground feel in China? Because again, that, that's another one of those things where if you just, like, read the media, they'll, they'll always make it seem like, Western media makes it seem like people in China are clamoring to get out.

    2. EU

      Yeah, not having a good time.

    3. TN

      Like, clamoring. They're like, "You thank your lucky stars that you don't live in China-

    4. EU

      Mm-hmm

    5. TN

      ... because oh, they would dream to live in a country where there's 600 TV channels and 15 kinds of nut milk. You don't understand how tough it is."

    6. EU

      And there's Starbucks on every corner.

    7. TN

      "You don't understand."

    8. AH

      By the way, that exists already in China, just so you know. [laughs]

    9. TN

      That's hilarious.

    10. EU

      [laughs]

    11. TN

      But that, but that's, yeah, so-

    12. AH

      There's more variety, actually, in certain foods in China. Uh, just, just so you know.

    13. TN

      You, but this, so, so what is the average Chinese, I know you're not speaking for everyone, but, like, what is the average Chinese person experiencing of China, and what are they, like, do, do you know what I mean? How-

    14. AH

      Yeah

    15. TN

      ... how are they viewing China?

    16. AH

      So there's a good side and a bad side. The good side is, you know, everyone, everyone else is having a worse time. Look at, they have this narrative, okay, there's just so much crime and guns in America-

    17. TN

      Damn

    18. AH

      ... and racism. Increasingly, they don't want people like us, you know. And, and, you know, Trump has just put in this new, um, green card policy that makes it harder for people to stay while they're getting their green cards.

    19. TN

      Oh, yes, now you have to go-

    20. AH

      You have to go back

    21. TN

      ... you have to leave the country-

    22. AH

      To your country

    23. TN

      ... which seems like a trap.

    24. AH

      Yeah.

    25. TN

      Yeah.

    26. AH

      Exactly. And, and then, and but the flip side of it is, um, you know, people do feel like the economy's slowing down. There's this concept you always hear in the media in the West, this concept of lying flat, tang ping, which is, you know, why would you be in the rat race and work super hard when you can only get so much money and, you know, deflation is happening in the economy, and-

    27. TN

      Oh

    28. AH

      ... there's not as many jobs. You know, youth unemployment's still close to 20%. So young people in China feel a little bit depressed-

    29. TN

      Mm

    30. AH

      ... about the economy-

  18. 1:00:001:08:00

    BYD, Subsidies & EV Dominance

    1. AH

      I can't remember the exact-

    2. TN

      20 to 25 minutes

    3. AH

      ... distance, but you should look it up. It goes from the-

    4. TN

      To the second floor

    5. AH

      ... from the base to, to the top of the mountain.

    6. TN

      [laughs]

    7. EU

      [laughs]

    8. AH

      [laughs] Oh, my God.

    9. TN

      It really, that, yeah, it feels like, it feels like China's just doing, like, impossible things most of the time. Like, in, in every ... I was reading about BYD the other day. Oh, maybe this is, yeah, this is, you're the perfect person to ask this.

    10. EU

      Why?

    11. TN

      Why was I reading about BYD?

    12. EU

      No, why is she the perfect person to ask?

    13. TN

      Because she knows about China, and she knows about, uh, economics.

    14. EU

      Okay, carry on.

    15. TN

      And you know none of these things.

    16. EU

      Oh, carry on.

    17. TN

      Even though I ask you about them every day.

    18. EU

      Really?

    19. TN

      You don't try and learn shit.

    20. AH

      [laughs]

    21. TN

      Out here telling me about beard oil.

    22. EU

      [laughs]

    23. TN

      [laughs]

    24. EU

      That's the real BYD.

    25. TN

      So [laughs]

    26. EU

      [laughs]

    27. AH

      [laughs]

    28. TN

      So [laughs] beard your dreams.

    29. EU

      [laughs]

    30. TN

      So, um, uh, BYD for a long time was considered the laughing stock of-

  19. 1:08:001:19:00

    The Future of Robots

    1. AH

      your stockpiles and import from other places around the world. So that's the f- that's the way that I look at it is it's less of an empire and it's more of a network of influence on trade, on geopolitics, on supply chains.

    2. TN

      So do, do you think China's gonna look to the robots? Is, is that a, is that a conversation that they're having?

    3. AH

      Oh yeah, for sure, is that robots are gonna help with the demographic challenge, and robots are gonna be the next major export, uh, like EVs and solar panels and batteries were a decade ago.

    4. TN

      But h- help, help me understand what solutions or what, what problems the robots are actually gonna be fixing. R- because I understand, okay, there's, there's the decline in terms of people's age and their ability to do things, so I guess robots taking care of people, is that one aspect of it?

    5. AH

      Taking care of elderly people.

    6. TN

      Okay, so robots taking care of elderly people.

    7. AH

      Yeah.

    8. TN

      Okay.

    9. AH

      And then you have more task-specific, you know, uh, robotic installations in, already happening in factories.

    10. TN

      Factories, okay.

    11. EU

      Yeah.

    12. AH

      So dark factories that are completely d- uh, devoid of humans-

    13. TN

      Yeah

    14. AH

      ... basically, and it's just machines.

    15. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    16. AH

      Uh, uh, robotic machines. Uh, then you have, uh, certain hospitals and pharmaceutical, uh, uh, companies that use, again, robotic arms to pick, you know, pick out somebody's orders or prescriptions-

    17. TN

      Oh, okay

    18. AH

      ... without a human as well.

    19. TN

      Okay.

    20. AH

      Uh, that's happening. Um, and then some really in- interesting stuff that is more in, in the brain chip interface that's happening, both invasively and noninvasively. So on the na- noninvasively front, they have this, um, this device that sits on, uh, the skin that basically is able to control the brain, um, so that you can control, uh, an arm.

    21. TN

      External.

    22. AH

      A robotic arm, an external arm. So if you have an amputee, there's a company called BrainCo that's doing it. If you're an amputee, then your brain is able to, it's able to pick up an elect- electric signal to your brain, this chip device that sits on the skin-

    23. TN

      And in- infer intention

    24. AH

      ... and then, and then move, move your fingers and infer intention. And there's another one that's, uh, more invasive, which is a chip im- embedded into the brain-

    25. TN

      Right

    26. AH

      ... that is helping people, um, who have spine injuries, can't walk, to-

    27. TN

      Hmm

    28. AH

      ... to walk again. Um, that's more in the kind of y- blended environment-

    29. TN

      Right

    30. AH

      ... not, not purely robotics. Uh, but I, I, I, I suspect that we're gonna see, uh, you know, not just the humanoid robots that Elon wants to see, but different, you know, task-specific robotic installations. You know, the stuff that I mentioned that, uh, you know, the arms that are picking up o- orders.

  20. 1:19:001:23:00

    AI Talent and China’s Next Generation

    1. EU

      [laughs]

    2. TN

      B- because, you know, I, I, I realize this when talking to an expert like yourself, sometimes we don't know what questions we should be asking because we don't have the expertise to know what the questions are. What are the questions you think people should be asking about China that they're not asking?

    3. AH

      I love that question. I think that people should do that more in general. I would say in, especially in the AI realm ... talent flows really matter, and I don't think people, because they're in such a, in such a haste to focus, this is my other pet peeve, on compute. You know, everyone's saying, "Oh, US compute is the biggest in the world."

    4. TN

      Yeah.

    5. AH

      "We have an advantage in the frontier models." But at the end of the day, what really matters is having top-tier AI talent, and the fact that the plurality, and actually in some respects the majority, of top-tier AI talent is Chinese nationals in the US-

    6. TN

      Really?

    7. AH

      ... is astounding. So 38, 9% of top-tier AI talent in Silicon Valley is Chinese nationals. They're not even American-born Chinese.

    8. TN

      Hmm.

    9. AH

      They're Chinese nationals, and 38% are American-born, uh, engineers, and then there's the rest of the world. Uh, so if you think about that alone, and then you couple that with the fact that China has, uh, 40% of graduates every year in STEM, as opposed to in the US it's 20% of graduates every year is in STEM. Uh, 5 million of STEM graduates graduate almost every year in China and enter the workforce. I don't think people understand enough how important that just scale, but also the talent of these top-tier researchers are for, for AI development, for technological development.

    10. TN

      Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.

    11. AH

      I think that's really understated and does not really capture it in economic models, but super important when we think about innovation in the next frontier.

    12. TN

      And, and what do you think some of the questions are that we're not asking about, like China's vision and its demographics and its sort of future plans as a whole beyond the space of AI and technology?

    13. AH

      So, uh, beyond AI and technology, I think the big question is what is gonna happen to, and a- again, it's tied to, to youths, uh, is like what is gonna happen to the Gen Z in China?

    14. TN

      Hmm.

    15. AH

      Because the boomers and the millennials kind of really got to ride the coattails of China's economic rise.

    16. TN

      Hmm.

    17. AH

      And in the next couple years I believe there'll be upwards to 5 trillion US dollars of intergenerational wealth transfer from the boomers to Gen Z in China. So that's a lot of change that is gonna be transferred over, and the question is how are they gonna invest it? What are they gonna do with the money? Um, are they gonna decide to work as hard as their parents?

    18. TN

      Yeah, will it affect their work ethic? Yeah.

    19. AH

      Yeah. Uh, you know, are, are they going to be motivated to get married or not?

    20. TN

      Hmm.

    21. AH

      You know, how are they gonna think about, um, their economic development, you know, in a slowing China? I think that is the big question. We haven't figured it out yet, because both narratives of, like, the youth are checked out and mailing it in, but also the youth are s- really hardworking and excited about AI. Both r- realities coexist. And then it, it, the big question is which pathway do we take? Like, will, which- will Chinese youths and the industry get super excited about AI and will China be, uh, not just a near peer competitor with the US but a leader?

    22. TN

      Right.

    23. AH

      Because maybe it's not just LLMs that matter, and maybe there are other innovations that, that young Chinese people can design. 'Cause they've already shown, Chinese companies have already shown that they're not just good at iteration but also good at innovation and making very viral stuff. Like, who would have thought a couple years ago that the most viral videos and content AI-generated would come out of China?

    24. TN

      Yeah.

    25. AH

      From TikTok.

    26. TN

      Hmm.

    27. AH

      No one would have thought that, and that gave birth to a whole rise of content creators and influencers.

    28. TN

      Damn. It really is gonna be exciting.

    29. EU

      Very exciting.

    30. TN

      It's like a ... Yeah, I mean, we ... To see the China that we grew up with-

  21. 1:23:001:30:48

    Where Trevor Should Visit in China

    1. TN

      if we go to China, where should we go first?

    2. AH

      I'm super biased 'cause I'm from Shanghai.

    3. TN

      Okay.

    4. AH

      So you have to go there.

    5. TN

      Okay.

    6. AH

      It's like the Paris of China.

    7. TN

      Oh, Shanghai's like the Paris of China.

    8. AH

      It's really, it's really, um-

    9. TN

      People are irritated that you're there when you're not. Is that what you're saying?

    10. AH

      Well, they're kind of arro- they're arrogant. They think they're the best people in China.

    11. EU

      [laughs]

    12. TN

      Okay, I like that.

    13. AH

      Yeah.

    14. TN

      I like that.

    15. EU

      [laughs]

    16. AH

      They, they, like, look down on everyone else.

    17. TN

      Yeah, that's para-

    18. EU

      [laughs]

    19. AH

      [laughs]

    20. TN

      People are just like, "What are you doing in our town?"

    21. AH

      They dress better. They, they look down on everyone else in China.

    22. TN

      Okay.

    23. AH

      And they just think that they're culturally superior.

    24. TN

      Okay, cool.

    25. AH

      But, but you get the be- I think you get some of the best restaurants. It's super cosmopolitan for a mainland city-

    26. TN

      Uh-huh

    27. AH

      ... in China. And there are some areas historically where there's, like, beautiful, um, art deco Spanish Revival buildings. 'Cause remember, in the Republican era, so the early 1900s in China, there were a lot of Westerners who were living there.

    28. TN

      Mm-hmm.

    29. AH

      They had different concession areas or zones. So there, there's a French concession zone.

    30. TN

      Oh, so they could, like, build their own ... They-

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