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The State of Startups in 2026

YC works with thousands of founders every year, which gives us an early look at how startups are changing. Right now, the shift is striking: startups are moving from bits to atoms, nearly one in five YC companies has a solo founder, and companies are reaching meaningful revenue faster than ever. In this episode of The Lightcone, Garry, Jared, Diana, and Harj dig into what’s driving these changes and what they mean for founders. They discuss how AI is making it possible for smaller teams to take on more ambitious problems, why experienced founders are having a resurgence, and why knowing what to build is becoming more important than simply knowing how to build it. Chapters: 00:00 — Intro 01:06 — Startups Are Moving From Bits to Atoms 03:29 — Why AI Is Making Hard Tech Easier 05:21 — Defense, Manufacturing, and the Return of Hard Tech 09:48 — AI Compute Is Becoming a Physical Infrastructure Problem 12:34 — Robotics Is Approaching Its ChatGPT Moment 15:40 — Software Isn’t Dead. It’s Becoming the Harness 17:59 — Why AI Startups Are Growing Faster 22:52 — The Hidden Boom in Data and RL Environments 27:08 — Why Robotics Will Need Specialized Models 29:38 — The Rise of the Solo Founder 32:54 — Why Experienced Founders Are Back 34:59 — What Founders Should Do Right Now Apply to Y Combinator: https://www.ycombinator.com/apply Work at a startup: https://www.ycombinator.com/jobs

Garry TanhostDiana HuhostJared FriedmanhostHarj Taggarhost
Sep 17, 202636mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

YC sees AI driving startups from software bits into physical atoms

  1. YC reports a sharp rise in hard tech startups (8% → 20%), led by robotics, re-industrialization, defense, and compute/power infrastructure companies.
  2. AI (especially code generation and agentic development) is reducing the software labor constraints that historically made hard tech slow and expensive to scale.
  3. Exploding demand for AI compute is creating opportunities across physical infrastructure—data centers, energy/power, interconnects, and alternative chip architectures.
  4. Software is evolving toward agent-driven “harnesses” that complete end-to-end tasks, which YC links to faster revenue growth and higher willingness to pay.
  5. YC sees founder demographics shifting: more solo founders (5% → ~19%) and a resurgence of experienced founders who can “manage agents” and choose what to build.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Hard tech is back: YC’s batch composition is rapidly shifting from “bits” to “atoms.”

YC reports hard tech rising from 8% to 20% of accepted companies, with notable jumps in robotics, industrial manufacturing, defense, semiconductors/photonics, and power. The episode frames this as a structural shift driven by AI, geopolitics, and compute/energy constraints—not a temporary fad.

AI is making hard tech easier by compressing the cost and time of the software layer.

They argue code generation and agentic coding reduce the “software engineering bottleneck” for hardware-heavy startups (e.g., Anduril-style full-stack systems). Smaller teams can now ship sophisticated software layers faster, changing the economics of building planes, chips, robots, factories, and defense systems.

AI compute is turning into a physical infrastructure and supply-chain problem.

Demand for GPUs and data centers is so strong that older GPUs (e.g., A100s) are described as appreciating—an inversion of typical hardware depreciation. This pushes startups into physical build-outs: data center construction, power, batteries, interconnect/switching, and alternative silicon architectures.

Robotics is approaching a breakout, but the bottlenecks are data, real-time control, and deployment.

The hosts describe a looming “ChatGPT moment” for robotics, fueled by progress in models and benchmarks, but emphasize robotics needs new scaling laws, real-world data, and deployment infrastructure. They also stress that robotics is not just one product category—it’s an ecosystem of vertical solutions, tooling, and data pipelines.

Software’s center of gravity is shifting from tools to agent-run end-to-end “harnesses.”

They argue SaaS isn’t dead; instead, “system of record” products must become “harnesses” where agents execute work end-to-end. YC sees “full task” companies rising from ~10% to 25%+ of the batch, reflecting a shift from point tools to products that complete workflows (e.g., clinical intake, insurance brokering, billing).

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

Things that actually touch atoms and not just bits.

Garry Tan

I mean, that's the true bull case for Hard Tech. It's that it's not just that people are shying away from funding software businesses, but it's actually that the super smart models that we have now are actually accelerating scientific research and making it possible for startups to have bigger research breakthroughs earlier, and that therefore these di- deep tech companies will actually work better.

Jared Friedman

We right now are about almost a year since agentic coding started to work, since Opus 4.5, that we're seeing these workflows fully blossom, and the result are basically people want their job just be done and are willing to buy software that just gets the job done.

Diana Hu

One of the things that we started experiencing this year that we never experienced in the past is we have companies breaking from zero to seven figures in revenue during the batch, and that is in a span of three months, and that's shocking.

Diana Hu

What a w- weird moment we are in history where you wake up in the morning, you, like, wire up a new model, and then these things that even a month ago you're just like, "Why isn't it working?" It just starts working.

Garry Tan

Hard tech resurgence at YCRobotics, manufacturing, and defense growthAI code generation reducing engineering constraintsCompute scarcity: data centers, power, and chipsOptical interconnects and alternative silicon (precision trends)Agent “harnesses” replacing point-solution SaaSData/RL environment businesses selling to AI labs

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