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Y CombinatorY Combinator

Why Founders Shouldn't Think Like Investors

It’s easy to analyze your way out of taking the first step. It’s something we see a lot, particularly when founders try to choose what to build based on what they think VCs and investors will like. In this episode of Dalton & Michael, we’ll talk about the risks of “thinking like an investor”, how to know when you’re stuck in this mindset, and how to unlearn it. We’ll also cover a short list of things that we’ve found actually matter when starting a company — it’s simpler than a lot of people think. Apply to Y Combinator: https://yc.link/DandM-apply Work at a Startup: https://yc.link/DandM-jobs Chapters (Powered by https://bit.ly/chapterme-yc) - 00:00 - Coming Up 00:24 - How VCs Think 03:05 - What Matters 04:56 - What's Changed 06:41 - First Principles 08:41 - Fear 10:06 - Positive Feedback 11:18 - First Customers 12:56 - Scaling 14:19 - Macro Vs. Micro 15:54 - Unlearning 17:22 - Time With Users 20:36 - Superpowers 21:42 - No Exit Strategy

Michael SeibelhostDalton Caldwellhost
Mar 21, 202423mWatch on YouTube ↗

Summaries, chapters, transcripts, and FAQs on this page are made by uListen, not YouTube.

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:00 – 0:24

    Coming Up

    1. MS

      They measured 60 times, cut once. The cut didn't go well.

    2. DC

      Now what?

    3. MS

      And some people are like, "Oh, shit."

    4. DC

      [laughs] Do I measure 60 more times? [laughs] Like, what do I-

    5. MS

      Yeah. [gentle music] All right. This is Dolphin Plus Michael, and today we're gonna talk about why founders shouldn't think like VCs.

    6. DC

      [laughs] Shocking.

    7. MS

      I, I would have never imagined we had this opinion. [laughs]

    8. DC

      [laughs]

  2. 0:24 – 3:05

    How VCs Think

    1. MS

      So maybe we should start, what is thinking like a VC? What... How does a VC... How are they trained to think?

    2. DC

      So let's break this down. And I think to start with, when we say VC, we don't literally just mean venture capitalist.

    3. MS

      Sure.

    4. DC

      This should include management consultants-

    5. MS

      Yes. Investment banker

    6. DC

      ... um, investment banking-

    7. MS

      Yes

    8. DC

      ... people that work in hedge funds, people that work in private equity. There's a whole-

    9. MS

      Yeah

    10. DC

      ... host of jobs. Um, and the people in these b- jobs, they train you to do a lot of market sizing-

    11. MS

      Yes

    12. DC

      ... to build a bunch of PowerPoints.

    13. MS

      [laughs] Yes.

    14. DC

      Right? I mean, that's a job.

    15. MS

      Yes, yes, yes.

    16. DC

      Um, to analyze fundraising trends, to do-

    17. MS

      Yes

    18. DC

      ... market analysis, to read surveys about the market.

    19. MS

      Yes.

    20. DC

      Um, again, lots of-

    21. MS

      Speak to experts. You gotta talk to-

    22. DC

      Speak... Expert networks

    23. MS

      ... gotta talk to experts, yes.

    24. DC

      Um, you pay a lot of attention to the stock market, uh, market multiples, other things happening in the M&A market. It's, it's an entire framework of thinking, um, of small companies as if they were big companies, and using-

    25. MS

      Yes

    26. DC

      ... these large company metrics and analysis to apply to them.

    27. MS

      Yes.

    28. DC

      And to be clear for this video, if you're in those industries, this is a great way to think. We in no way are suggesting-

    29. MS

      These are bad tools.

    30. DC

      Yeah, these are great tools.

  3. 3:05 – 4:56

    What Matters

    1. MS

      So everyone listening has gotta ask, well, aren't we VCs?

    2. DC

      Yep.

    3. MS

      Right? Like, isn't this how a YC partner would think when reading applications, collecting interviews?

    4. DC

      I think that's an excellent point. Here's the facts. When we are reading applications and doing interviews, we are investing very, very, very early.

    5. MS

      Yes. [laughs]

    6. DC

      And we have been trained on what matters and what doesn't matter. And so let's be real. What matters is, does your idea make any sense?

    7. MS

      Yeah. [laughs] Any sense whatsoever.

    8. DC

      Do you know anything about it?

    9. MS

      Yes.

    10. DC

      Do you have the tech skills to build the thing?

    11. MS

      Or anything. [laughs]

    12. DC

      Anything, basically.

    13. MS

      Yeah.

    14. DC

      And can you get any customers?

    15. MS

      Yes.

    16. DC

      It's almost... It's so basic, it shocks people.

    17. MS

      Yes.

    18. DC

      What we are looking for is very basic stuff.

    19. MS

      Well, and I think what's interesting is that when we try to be smarter, we make mistakes.

    20. DC

      Correct.

    21. MS

      When we try to be smart about markets, or when we try to be smart about comps, we make mistakes, 'cause one, we haven't studied those markets closely.

    22. DC

      Yes.

    23. MS

      And two, because startups change. They pivot. They find new opportunities. Technology changes. Time changes.

    24. DC

      Well, think about it. When we make an investment, often it does, does not become a big company for at least 10 years.

    25. MS

      Yeah.

    26. DC

      And so if you're trying to-

    27. MS

      [laughs]

    28. DC

      ... to do market analysis and market trends for an investment that won't become big for a decade later, it's kind of flawed analysis.

    29. MS

      Yes.

    30. DC

      Versus if you're doing analysis of pu- you know, uh, new IPOs coming-

  4. 4:56 – 6:41

    What's Changed

    1. MS

      So why do founders do this? Like, what's going on in a founder's head that gets them to think, "This is how I should assess an opportunity. This is how I should figure out whether I work on this idea or not"-

    2. DC

      Yep

    3. MS

      ... "is using these tools"? What's changed? Why is this far more common now?

    4. DC

      Well, something I noticed, um, [clears throat] when we were founders is there wasn't access into the mind of investors very much.

    5. MS

      No. [laughs] A lot of their appeal was how elusive they were.

    6. DC

      Right.

    7. MS

      Like, behind closed doors.

    8. DC

      Yeah.

    9. MS

      You had to be special to even get access to them.

    10. DC

      And, and so a funny thing that has happened is there's now so much content marketing from investors. Again, not necessarily bad, and again-

    11. MS

      Yeah

    12. DC

      ... we are acknowledging this is a form of marketing. [laughs]

    13. MS

      Of course, yeah, yeah.

    14. DC

      Of course.

    15. MS

      Yeah.

    16. DC

      Um, but you now hear a lot more about, um, market analysis and market opportunities.

    17. MS

      Yes.

    18. DC

      In addition, there's all of these things for college students and post-college of programs-

    19. MS

      Yes

    20. DC

      ... or-

    21. MS

      Startup classes

    22. DC

      ... startup classes, and they tend to be taught by non-founders. They tend to be taught by investors.

    23. MS

      Yep.

    24. DC

      And a lot of what you learn is about how to pitch, how to do market analysis-

    25. MS

      Yes

    26. DC

      ... how to identify ideas via market trends.

    27. MS

      What's a good idea?

    28. DC

      Right. And so if you go to classes at your university or-

    29. MS

      Yes

    30. DC

      ... you know, wherever you're encountering this stuff, if the folk- You should ask yourself, if the folks teaching this have not had much actual startup experience where they were the founder who had to do the zero to one-

  5. 6:41 – 8:41

    First Principles

    1. MS

      I also think, though, that there's another way I see a lot of founders attacking this. A lot of founders just think this way from first principles, good VCs pick good companies and can predict the future.

    2. DC

      Yep.

    3. MS

      If I can model a good VC in my head, I will pick a good idea and increase the likelihood of winning. And it's interesting to me 'cause I think that, like, this is sometimes what I hate about first principles arguments, is that like, sure, if you say it that way-

    4. DC

      [laughs]

    5. MS

      [laughs] It would make sense. H- do you think that's what good VCs really do? [laughs]

    6. DC

      [laughs] Yeah. I mean, I, I think, look, to be really direct on that-

    7. MS

      Yeah

    8. DC

      ... what do I think great investors do, especially later stage than what Y Combinator is?

    9. MS

      Yes.

    10. DC

      It's they find companies that have product market fit-

    11. MS

      Yes

    12. DC

      ... that are taking off-

    13. MS

      Yes

    14. DC

      ... that have incredible traction-

    15. MS

      Yes

    16. DC

      ... and they try to find them and invest in them.

    17. MS

      Yes.

    18. DC

      And that's the job.

    19. MS

      Yeah.

    20. DC

      Just like, in a lot of these other M&A-

    21. MS

      Yes

    22. DC

      ... all these other types of finance jobs-

    23. MS

      Yes

    24. DC

      ... it's usually you find the thing that's making lots of money, that's doing really well, and then you glom onto it [laughs]

    25. MS

      Whoa

    26. DC

      ... and attach yourself to it.

    27. MS

      And the skill is often getting the thing taking off to take your money versus someone else's money.

    28. DC

      Yes.

    29. MS

      Not picking amongst things that haven't launched yet and having theses about why one's gonna do better than the other.

    30. DC

      Exactly.

  6. 8:41 – 10:06

    Fear

    1. MS

      there. I think there's another thing going on, too, which is fear-based, right? Like, I know that if I choose a bad idea, I'm gonna waste a lot of time.

    2. DC

      Yeah.

    3. MS

      Shouldn't I do all of this analysis first to make sure I don't choo- to make sure-

    4. DC

      Yeah

    5. MS

      ... I don't choose a bad idea, right?

    6. DC

      Yeah, we see this a lot, where there's companies that find real problems and something they're experts in, but they are facing crippling anxiety-

    7. MS

      Yes

    8. DC

      ... that it's not venture scale.

    9. MS

      Yes.

    10. DC

      And they might be right.

    11. MS

      It's, yeah.

    12. DC

      But they're so obsessed with this way of thinking that, oh, what if this tops out at 50 million ARR? Gee.

    13. MS

      Yeah.

    14. DC

      Can't... I'm just not even gonna start a company. I'm gonna stay doing, you know, I'm gonna stay at my job because the idea I have will top out at 50 million in revenue.

    15. MS

      Yeah. Eh. [laughs] I, I think it's tricky 'cause I think that we have to admit in the startup game, you're going after, like, a high-risk, low-information, and high-commitment bet, and there aren't moves to change those core things, right? Like, yeah, you can invest on the margin, but it's still gonna be high risk, high commitment, and a long-term bet.

    16. DC

      Yep.

    17. MS

      And so I think we would argue it's better to kind of focus on areas of your strength, areas that you know well. [laughs] Like, that's where you can-

    18. DC

      Problems that you know a lot about, that you personally observed

    19. MS

      ... observed. Maybe you've solved, even-

    20. DC

      Yep

    21. MS

      ... on a small scale.

    22. DC

      As opposed to, like, let me get the VC toolbox out to try to judge which idea

  7. 10:06 – 11:18

    Positive Feedback

    1. DC

      is good.

    2. MS

      I think the last thing that I see a lot is that when you think like a VC, it is easier to get positive feedback from VCs. You know, when you talk, when you pick an idea because it's the hot thing on Twitter, it's easier to get meetings.

    3. DC

      Yep.

    4. MS

      When you talk about companies using VC language, when you show some market slide that says this market is-

    5. DC

      Yep

    6. MS

      ... da, da, da, right? Like, investors are responding to that, and I think that's confusing to founders because, I mean, investors can respond to things that aren't good.

    7. DC

      Yes.

    8. MS

      In fact, wouldn't we say that's most of what they're respon- Like, that's our job, is like most investors bet on things that don't work.

    9. DC

      Yeah. I mean, that is the job.

    10. MS

      [laughs] Yeah.

    11. DC

      And, and again, one way to detect this is that you spend all your time paying attention to fundraising trends.

    12. MS

      Yes.

    13. DC

      And the way you come up with a startup idea is to read what is raising money and then clone the thing that is raising the most money.

    14. MS

      Yeah.

    15. DC

      And that's the algorithm. [laughs] And then-

    16. MS

      Maybe raise some money, and then, then what? [laughs]

    17. DC

      Yeah. Like, that's, that is an algorithm we see a lot from this type of thinking-

    18. MS

      Yeah

    19. DC

      ... which is all of these companies raise money, I'm gonna do it, too. And we're just suggesting we've seen that not go well a lot of the time.

  8. 11:18 – 12:56

    First Customers

    1. MS

      I think, uh, this brings up the next topic perfectly. So like, all right, I, uh, what happens when founders think like VCs and then encounter the real world?

    2. DC

      Yep.

    3. MS

      So you did your analysis. You've done your validation. There's a big market opportunity. It's on trend. VCs are gonna like it. I'm all lined up, but now I gotta get my first customer.

    4. DC

      [laughs]

    5. MS

      Uh-oh. What's the, what's the VC investor toolbox for getting customer one?

    6. DC

      Uh. [laughs]

    7. MS

      [laughs]

    8. DC

      This is, it's very humbling. And again, if we were to, if we were to start a startup-

    9. MS

      Yeah

    10. DC

      ... we know, like the first thing I would admit-

    11. MS

      [laughs]

    12. DC

      ... is that no matter what I know from investing in startups, that does not mean getting first customers is gonna be easy for me or for Michael-

    13. MS

      Nope

    14. DC

      ... or for anyone.

    15. MS

      Nope.

    16. DC

      It is freaking hard.

    17. MS

      Yep.

    18. DC

      [laughs] And this zero to one ... is always the trap, it's the bear trap that people run into-

    19. MS

      Yeah

    20. DC

      ... that they're like, they're already focused on scaling the company and-

    21. MS

      Yeah

    22. DC

      ... raising money, um, and they're like kinda like glossing over or being hand-wavy on how hard it is to get first customers. Like, "Yeah, we're gonna build our first version. We're gonna launch it, and then we're gonna be growing, and then, you know."

    23. MS

      Yeah.

    24. DC

      And then they launch it, and it doesn't go well.

    25. MS

      No.

    26. DC

      And people are just-

    27. MS

      Yeah

    28. DC

      ... shocked.

    29. MS

      It's funny. It's like they measured 60 times, cut once. The cut didn't go well, and suddenly-

    30. DC

      Now what?

  9. 12:56 – 14:19

    Scaling

    1. MS

      I think we also see when founders have this mentality, some will kind of engage in the 0 to 1 and kinda fail and like kinda live in that zone. I see a lot not even engaging in the 0 to 1. Like, you know, they're hiring a bunch of people, getting an office. Like, they almost forget they have to get the first customer, and they start gearing up for customer 100.

    2. DC

      Well, but it's because if your market analysis is perfect, it's impossible that the customers-

    3. MS

      Right

    4. DC

      ... won't want it, right?

    5. MS

      It's a foregone conclu-

    6. DC

      Like, the first customer's [laughs] a foregone...

    7. MS

      What's, the real problem is how do we scale? [laughs]

    8. DC

      Yeah. I'm much more worried about that.

    9. MS

      Yes.

    10. DC

      Yeah.

    11. MS

      So I think it's funny, you described a, I, I, I like this analogy, like the, the StarCraft analogy. What, what's this analogy?

    12. DC

      Yeah. It's kind of like we've all played real-time strategy games-

    13. MS

      Yes

    14. DC

      ... like StarCraft or, or what have you. And when you're playing one of those games, you're just like, "Okay. Ooh, need more pylons. Okay, cool."

    15. MS

      Yes.

    16. DC

      "Let's, let's build some siege tanks over here." You're basically-

    17. MS

      Yes

    18. DC

      ... playing a video game. It's just a, you've gotta scale the thing up-

    19. MS

      Yes

    20. DC

      ... as quickly as possible. There's not like a version of StarCraft where, you know, you try to build the base and it doesn't work. [laughs]

    21. MS

      [laughs] Yeah.

    22. DC

      Or like your units all just, like, die or so- I don't know.

    23. MS

      [laughs]

    24. DC

      Like, it's, that, it's a different game.

    25. MS

      It's different.

    26. DC

      And so I think people are playing this, like, ramp-up scale game-

    27. MS

      Yeah

    28. DC

      ... pr- and they feel like they're playing a video game.

    29. MS

      Yes.

    30. DC

      And again, they're completely shocked how hard it is to get it off the ground. It is really different than what people expect.

  10. 14:19 – 15:54

    Macro Vs. Micro

    1. MS

      Yeah, it's funny. When I was playing StarCraft way back in the day, like, people would always talk about macro versus micro.

    2. DC

      Yeah.

    3. MS

      And I feel as though investors love macro.

    4. DC

      Yeah.

    5. MS

      Macro you can do on an Excel spreadsheet.

    6. DC

      Yeah.

    7. MS

      What's your build order? Like, what's your tech tree? Da da da da. And I remember, like, you can macro like a motherfucker, and then when you have three guys versus the other guy's three guys and they're better at micro than you-

    8. DC

      [laughs]

    9. MS

      ... you just lose. Like, you just lose. [laughs] Just like, you just lose. And my, I would have friends who were so good at StarCraft, like, they would just play me crippled and still destroy me. [laughs]

    10. DC

      [laughs]

    11. MS

      And, uh, uh, it works the same way here, right? Like-

    12. DC

      And I think that's a great point.

    13. MS

      [laughs]

    14. DC

      We're, if you engage with this metaphor, we're talking about micro.

    15. MS

      Yes.

    16. DC

      You've gotta be great at micro to get something off the ground.

    17. MS

      Right.

    18. DC

      And-

    19. MS

      Yes

    20. DC

      ... and no amount of macro experience helps-

    21. MS

      Yes

    22. DC

      ... you be good at micro.

    23. MS

      I think you start being great at micro to earn the privilege of doing macro at all. And then how many CEOs do we find who still sermon on the road? They're like, "Oh, crap. I gotta get into that product 'cause it's something's broken. I gotta go six levels down and fix something 'cause like-"

    24. DC

      Well, it, I, I would compare it to, you know, I think a lot of people would love to be Ryan from Flexport where-

    25. MS

      Yeah

    26. DC

      ... he was buying a 747.

    27. MS

      Yeah.

    28. DC

      He's buying jets-

    29. MS

      Yeah

    30. DC

      ... and, like, moving stuff all over the world.

  11. 15:54 – 17:22

    Unlearning

    1. MS

      So what's the cure, Dalton? I am a founder. I admit I'm thinking like a BC and I don't want to. What is the cure?

    2. DC

      I think to start with, this is a case of being good at unlearning certain things that may not serve you at a, at a certain time. Again, let me give you an example.

    3. MS

      Yeah.

    4. DC

      Let's say that someone worked at a big company for a while and learned a lot about corporate politics.

    5. MS

      [laughs] So-

    6. DC

      Okay. File that away in the memory bank.

    7. MS

      Sure.

    8. DC

      Maybe someday that will be helpful.

    9. MS

      Yeah.

    10. DC

      But like, forget it.

    11. MS

      Yeah.

    12. DC

      Part- like, whatever part of your brain was saving that, turn off those neurons-

    13. MS

      Yeah

    14. DC

      ... if you're trying to do a very early stage startup.

    15. MS

      Yep.

    16. DC

      I would argue this is a similar thing, which is all, you know, all the Excel spreadsheet modeling you learned as an investment banker, that's great. Just turn that off, though. Like-

    17. MS

      Yeah

    18. DC

      ... unlearn that. Doesn't serve you now.

    19. MS

      Nope.

    20. DC

      And then, and embrace the beginner's mind-

    21. MS

      Yeah

    22. DC

      ... um, to get your startup off the ground.

    23. MS

      Yes.

    24. DC

      And then if you're very successful, you'll use these skills again. They just-

    25. MS

      Exactly

    26. DC

      ... aren't super relevant now.

    27. MS

      You'll earn the right. You'll earn the right to use them.

    28. DC

      Exactly.

    29. MS

      Yeah. Now, I also think about this as like turn off the pollution. Like, whatever the sources of knowledge that, like, you know, diagnose why you started thinking this way, and if that means, like, unfollowing some people on Twitter or not reading certain publications, like, do it. We're susceptible to the inputs that come to our mind, and, like, the easiest way we do this is turn that media off.

  12. 17:22 – 20:36

    Time With Users

    1. MS

      I also think spending time with your users is a cure for this because your users don't care about macro at all.

    2. DC

      No.

    3. MS

      [laughs]

    4. DC

      If you're, if you're solving a problem for some industry, they probably don't care about the fundraising announcements-

    5. MS

      Nope

    6. DC

      ... in AI land. Again, let me, let me give a concrete example. There's lots of people applying to YC with co-pilot for X ideas. You know, co-

    7. MS

      Yeah

    8. DC

      ... we're gonna do co-pilot for trucking.

    9. MS

      Yeah.

    10. DC

      And they'll, and then the mar- they'll be like, "We did market analysis. AI is really big, and it's growing really fast. Oh, and gee-"

    11. MS

      And trucking's really big. [laughs]

    12. DC

      "... and trucking's really big and growing fast. And so what we're gonna do is build AI for trucking."

    13. MS

      Yeah.

    14. DC

      Fund us. [laughs]

    15. MS

      [laughs] Yes.

    16. DC

      And then, and then it, it's like, okay, well, what exactly-

    17. MS

      What is that?

    18. DC

      ... w- be specific. What exactly are you gonna build for AI for trucking?

    19. MS

      Yeah. Well, we'll talk-

    20. DC

      Let me get back to you today [laughs]

    21. MS

      Yeah, yeah.

    22. DC

      Like-

    23. MS

      We'll talk to the trucking companies and figure out what they need.

    24. DC

      Yeah. It's like the p-

    25. MS

      [laughs]

    26. DC

      Asking the founder of the precise, exact thing they're gonna build, they hadn't thought that far ahead. They, it's-

    27. MS

      No

    28. DC

      ... combining AI and trucking seems like something that will raise money, and seems like a big idea, and seems on trend, and the details feel like irrelevant details. And sometimes people get frustrated-

    29. MS

      Yeah

    30. DC

      ... when we ask these questions.

  13. 20:36 – 21:42

    Superpowers

    1. MS

      So anyways, I think that, um, if you can resist this thinking like a VC, I think what I've realized is you kind of have superpowers. I think this virus has invaded a fairly large percentage-

    2. DC

      Yep

    3. MS

      ... of founders.

    4. DC

      Yes.

    5. MS

      And so you actually get to do things other founders would think would be silly.

    6. DC

      Yeah. They're, it's like everyone has a filter for what seems like a good idea or not.

    7. MS

      Yeah. Yeah. [laughs]

    8. DC

      And if your filter is exactly the same as everyone else's, you're all gonna be screening out the same ideas, right?

    9. MS

      Yeah.

    10. DC

      But if your filter is calibrated differently, you will see things-

    11. MS

      Yeah

    12. DC

      ... that other people have decided is bad.

    13. MS

      Yeah.

    14. DC

      Right? [laughs]

    15. MS

      Well, I think that's what's so funny, is because that's the sh- every successful YC story, that's the story in hindsight, right? It's like, everyone thought the idea sucked, it was off trend because it was off trend, it was a bad model.

    16. DC

      Yeah.

    17. MS

      It was a bad space. The market wasn't big enough, whatever. And lo and behold, 10 years later, our predictive powers [laughs] of, of the investment community aren't very good. So anyways, I think that if you don't fall for this trap, you get superpowers.

    18. DC

      Yeah.

    19. MS

      But you fall.

    20. DC

      And,

  14. 21:42 – 23:57

    No Exit Strategy

    1. DC

      and I think there's one more really important point I wanna make on this.

    2. MS

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DC

      Which is, we're trained to wanna have the entire plan worked out.

    4. MS

      Yes.

    5. DC

      And remember, this is something that-

    6. MS

      Yes

    7. DC

      ... sometimes founders do, is they're like, they'll put a slide in their slide deck of exit strategy.

    8. MS

      Oh.

    9. DC

      Like, basically-

    10. MS

      Oh

    11. DC

      ... when they're trying to choose what idea to work on-

    12. MS

      Yeah

    13. DC

      ... they're, they wanna include-

    14. MS

      Well, we know who's gonna buy us.

    15. DC

      The, who-

    16. MS

      Yeah, yeah. [laughs]

    17. DC

      What, [laughs] that they're gonna sell the company and for how much and to who.

    18. MS

      Yeah.

    19. DC

      And of course, delete that slide.

    20. MS

      [laughs]

    21. DC

      Like, oh my God, like are you kidding me?

    22. MS

      Yes.

    23. DC

      And, and the point I'm trying to make here is if you think like an investment banker, you do need to think about a-

    24. MS

      Yes

    25. DC

      ... exit strategy. If you're a private equity company, you're buying a-

    26. MS

      You better

    27. DC

      ... mattress company.

    28. MS

      For hundreds of million dollars. [laughs]

    29. DC

      You definitely wanna have an exit strategy slide.

    30. MS

      Yes. Yes.

Episode duration: 23:57

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