E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Jason Calacanis (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), David Sacks (host), David Friedberg (host), Jason Calacanis (host), Narrator, Narrator, Chamath Palihapitiya (host)
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya, E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more explores post-election: Centrism wins, vaccine arrives, markets soar, extremes lose The hosts dissect the 2020 U.S. election outcome, arguing voters engineered a “soft landing” by firing Trump while blocking a sweeping progressive mandate, signaling a broad preference for centrism. They compare Trump’s legal challenges to Bush v. Gore and conclude they are almost certain to fail, framing his post-election posture as brand management, not a viable path to victory. The discussion then turns to Pfizer’s vaccine timing, COVID endgame scenarios, market reactions, and why gridlock plus stimulus is bullish for equities. They close by criticizing identity politics, cancel culture, and one‑party governance, using San Francisco’s deterioration as a cautionary tale about ideological extremes and fiscal mismanagement.
Post-election: Centrism wins, vaccine arrives, markets soar, extremes lose
The hosts dissect the 2020 U.S. election outcome, arguing voters engineered a “soft landing” by firing Trump while blocking a sweeping progressive mandate, signaling a broad preference for centrism. They compare Trump’s legal challenges to Bush v. Gore and conclude they are almost certain to fail, framing his post-election posture as brand management, not a viable path to victory. The discussion then turns to Pfizer’s vaccine timing, COVID endgame scenarios, market reactions, and why gridlock plus stimulus is bullish for equities. They close by criticizing identity politics, cancel culture, and one‑party governance, using San Francisco’s deterioration as a cautionary tale about ideological extremes and fiscal mismanagement.
Key Takeaways
Voters engineered divided government to reject both Trump and the far left.
The hosts argue the electorate “surgically removed” Trump while denying Democrats a strong down-ballot mandate, signaling a demand for moderate, do‑no‑harm governance rather than ideological projects from either extreme.
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Trump’s legal path is vanishingly small, but he’s building a ‘stolen election’ narrative.
Compared to Bush v. ...
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The Pfizer vaccine news timing likely reflected de‑politicization, not conspiracy.
They note corporates are incentivized to avoid appearing to swing elections; delaying announcements until after voting—whether results were good or bad—was seen as the only defensible way to avoid being cast as ‘the ref deciding the game.’
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COVID’s social and behavioral scars may outlast the virus itself.
While Sax predicts a sharp snap‑back and ‘YOLO’ partying by summer, others think 80%-of-normal is the ceiling for years, with permanent changes like health screening, school testing, and mask norms, plus logistical limits on global vaccination.
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Markets love gridlock when paired with stimulus and low taxes.
With a likely Biden presidency and Republican Senate, the group sees fewer legislative shocks for business and ongoing monetary and fiscal support, which they say explains the post-election ‘rip’ and rotation from stay‑at‑home tech into cyclicals like travel and entertainment.
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Identity politics and demographic ‘block’ thinking are backfiring.
They highlight Trump’s gains among Latinos, Black voters, and LGBTQ voters as evidence that treating groups like Latinx as monolithic is both offensive and strategically dumb; future campaigns must target on issues and psychographics, not crude census buckets.
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San Francisco illustrates the risks of unchecked one‑party rule and anti-business policy.
Citing rising crime, bloated budgets, new business and real-estate taxes, and a tech exodus, they predict a fiscal crisis—and possibly bankruptcy within 10–15 years—arguing that cities need political balance and accountability to remain livable and competitive.
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Notable Quotes
“Voters basically said they were both right. They surgically removed Donald Trump while thwarting the radical left’s dream of total control in Washington.”
— David Sacks
“What the plurality of Americans want is actually just a common, decent, centrist, do‑no‑harm alternative.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“I think we’ve been at a rave for four years and everyone’s coming down from the molly… we all just want to sit in the parking lot, get a cappuccino, smoke a cigarette, and relax.”
— David Friedberg
“Identity politics is a stupid, fucking strategy. Forget whether you’re offended by it or not; at this point what’s clear is it doesn’t work.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“San Francisco was always the accidental beneficiary of Silicon Valley. It wasn’t San Francisco’s policies that created any of that prosperity.”
— David Sacks
Questions Answered in This Episode
If centrism is the clear electoral winner, what concrete policies would a genuinely centrist agenda prioritize over the next four years?
The hosts dissect the 2020 U. ...
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How should future campaigns move from demographic identity blocks to psychographic, issue-based targeting without becoming even more manipulative?
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To what extent should pharmaceutical companies factor politics into the timing of public health announcements, and who should set those norms?
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Are permanent COVID-era safeguards (like routine health screenings at schools and events) a reasonable trade-off for safety, or a slippery slope for civil liberties?
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What reforms—political, fiscal, or legal—would be necessary to reverse San Francisco’s trajectory and make it attractive for entrepreneurs again?
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Transcript Preview
Hey, everybody. Welcome to another All In podcast. This is an all bestie, no guestie episode of All In. The last time you heard from the besties, it was election night and it was-
A shitshow. (laughs)
A fucking crazy shitshow, let's be honest. (sniffs) I mean, we, if we go back and look at that historical document, we had moments where we thought Trump was gonna absolutely crush, then we had moments of confusion, and now here we are. And I think we have to give a couple of, uh, bestie kudos to, uh, first off, Chamath, pointing out Pennsylvania was gonna be big. And then second, when we went through the possible scenarios of who, w- what, what could possibly happen, a big giant blue wave, uh, Trump winning it all, and then maybe something in the middle, option three came through and that was-
Saxy Poo nailed it.
I think that was your-
The soft-
... your assumption, Sax. The soft landing.
Well, the- the soft landing, yeah.
W- what... So why don't we just, for the people who didn't tune in live-
Sorry, Jason, can I ask a question? Saxy Poo, Saxy Poo, was that your r- um, like projection or was it from that, from that guy who lives in his dad's basement, his mom's basement-
(laughs)
... that you brought in, you brought in on-
(laughs)
My, my researcher.
(laughs)
Well, Newman, Newman works for me, so we, uh...
(laughs)
Newman, Newman. (laughs)
(laughs) Yeah.
Newman, uh, N- Newman and I work, worked together on, on those takes. But yeah, the, the, the take that we thought was, was possible, but probably unlikely, but could represent a really good scenario was the, the soft landing, where you get a split decision. And I think that's what the American people voted for. Um, y- you know, you had the, the Democratic frame on the election was that we needed a return to normalcy and decency. The Republican frame was that the radical left could not be trusted with power. And voters basically said they were both right. They, sort of, surgically removed Donald Trump while thwarting the radical left's dream of total control in Washington. And th- what the electorate seems to be saying is they want the parties now to work together instead of voting for extreme ideology.
But TBD, Sax. I mean, Georgia's still up for grabs. They're going to go after it hard, right? I mean, this could-
They just... They filed in Pennsylvania.
Yeah, so I think there's a series of, of court challenges we can talk about. I think that they're unlikely to prevail, very, very unlikely. I think Joe Biden will be the next president. Um, we can kind of compare this to, you know, uh, Bush v. Gore, uh, from 2000 and if you, you want to compare Trump's case to Gore's case, it's weaker in every respect. I mean, first of all, with Bush v. Gore, uh, Gore only had to overturn one state, which was Florida, whereas Trump has to now contest and overturn three or four states simultaneously. Second, you know, Gore was within a few hundred votes of Bush. It was extremely close. Trump is no closer than about 12,000 votes in, in Georgia. That's the closest one. Third, you know, um, Gore, uh, uh, uh, or, or, or Bush never trailed, uh, Gore in, in any, in any recount and, um, and, and, and Trump has that problem that he's never, um... And he, he, he's very far behind Gore as well. So you look at those three things and you'd say, you know, Gore couldn't overcome it and he had a closer situation than this. And of course, I'd say finally, you know, W had the Velvet Hammer, James Baker working for him, whereas Trump frankly has Rudy Giuliani who's throwing press conferences in the parking lot of-
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