E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde
Jason Calacanis (host), Brad Gerstner (guest), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), David Friedberg (host), David Sacks (host), Narrator, Narrator
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and Brad Gerstner, E83: Market slide continues, and how to address Uvalde explores markets Slide, Venture Reset, And Urgent Ideas To Stop Shootings The hosts open by recapping the All-In Summit, highlighting its community-building, diversity efforts, and several dramatic on-stage moments, including a tense but ultimately reconciliatory exchange between Jason Calacanis and Palmer Luckey. They then shift into a deep analysis of the current market downturn, focusing on interest rates, inflation, SaaS valuations, and what founders and investors must do to survive a prolonged reset. A large portion of the discussion centers on startup discipline: free cash flow, cutting burn, realistic valuations, and the likely shakeout of overfunded, weak companies. The episode closes with an emotional but policy-focused segment on the Uvalde school shooting, exploring red-flag laws, early-warning systems, tech-company responsibilities, and the political dysfunction blocking “reasonable” gun reforms.
Markets Slide, Venture Reset, And Urgent Ideas To Stop Shootings
The hosts open by recapping the All-In Summit, highlighting its community-building, diversity efforts, and several dramatic on-stage moments, including a tense but ultimately reconciliatory exchange between Jason Calacanis and Palmer Luckey. They then shift into a deep analysis of the current market downturn, focusing on interest rates, inflation, SaaS valuations, and what founders and investors must do to survive a prolonged reset. A large portion of the discussion centers on startup discipline: free cash flow, cutting burn, realistic valuations, and the likely shakeout of overfunded, weak companies. The episode closes with an emotional but policy-focused segment on the Uvalde school shooting, exploring red-flag laws, early-warning systems, tech-company responsibilities, and the political dysfunction blocking “reasonable” gun reforms.
Key Takeaways
Expect a prolonged but healthy reset in tech and venture markets.
Panelists argue that 2020–2021 valuations were inflated by zero rates and massive money-printing; normalization alone justified a 20–50% correction, and the additional macro shocks (war, inflation fears) have now pushed many growth names 30–50% below five-year averages.
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Founders must aggressively cut burn now to extend runway and survive.
They warn that small, incremental cuts usually lead to a death spiral, advocating a “90-degree course correction” on spending to reach either free cash flow breakeven or clearly ‘default investable’ metrics before capital markets reopen.
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Free cash flow and true capital efficiency now matter more than growth at any cost.
Public and late-stage investors are shifting from adjusted metrics to real free cash flow per share; companies that keep masking dilution with stock grants or relying on “adjusted EBITDA” will be punished in this environment.
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The talent market will cool, ending hyper-entitled compensation expectations.
As hiring freezes and layoffs spread from startups to big tech, engineers and executives will lose their leverage to demand ever-rising salaries and backfilled equity losses; leaders must insist on shared sacrifice rather than endlessly “making people whole.”
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Late-stage private companies with bad cap tables face brutal restructuring.
Many unicorns raised at quasi-public valuations without product–market fit or sustainable metrics; they will need to reset preferences, accept down rounds, or even return capital, while only a small number of true category leaders ultimately win.
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Policy focus on targeted gun restrictions and red-flag laws could save lives.
The group converges on stronger, usable red-flag systems, meaningful background checks, and better use of existing laws to stop a small number of clearly disturbed young men from obtaining weapons, rather than broad-brush attacks on lawful gun ownership.
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Technology and schools could build early-warning systems for high-risk youth.
They argue that social networks can algorithmically flag dangerous behavior patterns, and schools should train students and staff to report worrying signs; combined with due-process mechanisms, this could intervene before ideation turns into mass violence.
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Notable Quotes
“Sometimes you have to hold simultaneous truths: a stock can be down 50% and still be fair value.”
— Brad Gerstner
“By surviving, you win. If you come out the other end as the only company left, you will run over the market.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“The only thing that creates wealth in a society is the output of goods and services that people want; printing money just debases the accounting system.”
— David Sacks
“If you don’t like it, quit. That’s the only way to react to being held hostage by your employees.”
— David Sacks (on Netflix’s memo to staff)
“Every country has kids with mental health disorders, but not every country has kids getting shot up in schools. That is a unique feature of the system we accept.”
— Brad Gerstner
Questions Answered in This Episode
How should founders practically decide how deep and fast to cut burn without killing their company’s long-term potential?
The hosts open by recapping the All-In Summit, highlighting its community-building, diversity efforts, and several dramatic on-stage moments, including a tense but ultimately reconciliatory exchange between Jason Calacanis and Palmer Luckey. ...
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What concrete metrics most reliably define a ‘default investable’ startup in today’s environment, especially outside SaaS?
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How can late-stage companies restructure painful cap tables and preferences in ways that are fair to both new and existing stakeholders?
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What legal and technical safeguards are needed to build robust red-flag and early-warning systems without creating broad civil-liberties abuses?
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If both parties have failed on gun policy, what kind of new political or advocacy structures could realistically overcome the NRA’s influence and push through “reasonable” reforms?
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Transcript Preview
Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the All In podcast. It's been a crazy, uh, couple of weeks here. We had the All In Summit, and boy, was it amazing. Our bestie, David Friedberg, couldn't make it today. Uh, he had, uh, some personal things he had to attend to. So joining us again is Brad Gerstner. Welcome back to the fifth bestie, uh, on his... Is this your fourth appearance now, including the, uh, All In Summit? I think you've been on four times now.
Hmm.
Very good. All right. That's about 5% of the episodes. Oh, nice, nice, uh-
(laughs)
I think that's a nice little chip in your, uh, in your, in your, your belt there.
I'm an unworthy replacement to Friedberg, but I do what I can do.
Nobody can replace Friedberg. That is the truth.
What's going on? Let your winners ride.
Rain Man David Sacks.
What's, what's going on? And they said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
Love you, bestie.
Queen of quinoa. What's going on?
Just, uh, going around the horn here, Chamath, did you have a, a favorite moment on stage, a favorite moment off stage? What, what is your general impressions of the All In Summit 2022?
I thought the people I met were, um, really impressive. I really enjoyed meeting people and learning what they did. I also thought you and your team organized, um, really an, an incredible event. And, um, I forgot how good you are at these things. But, um... So I give you a lot of credit. I really enjoyed participating. The only thing that I was nervous about during that whole thing, which probably limited a little bit of my fun, was my mom was coming.
Mm-hmm.
She's 81. And so I was not, I was not super psyched to really be in the throws of all the parties, to be honest, just 'cause I was like... I didn't, I didn't necessarily wanna get COVID and then I didn't want to introduce it to her, and-
Got it, yes.
You know, Nat ended up getting really, really sick but more, uh, like a flu and a cold.
Yeah, for sure.
Um, but, you know, I've been fine. My mom's fine. I know a bunch of folks that came, unfortunately tested positive, so-
Yeah.
That was the only... That's the only downside where I would, I would have wanted to be a little bit more carefree, but, um, that was the only thing that was... But that's not in anybody's control, so.
Yeah, but I think, I think it was great.
Well, hold, hold on a second. I, I recall that when I had a Christmas party-
Here we go. (laughs)
... back in December.
Oh, here we go.
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