E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Jason Calacanis (host), David Friedberg (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), David Sacks (host), David Sacks (host), Jason Calacanis (host), Guest (guest), Guest (guest), Jason Calacanis (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host)
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg, E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI explores war, Rates, Carta Chaos, DEI Backlash: All-In’s Turbulent Tour The episode opens with analysis of U.S.-led strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, debating strategic futility, escalation risk with Iran, and whether the Biden administration is engaging in a political “wag the dog” maneuver. They then pivot to macroeconomics, arguing that sticky inflation, geopolitical oil risks, and rising layoffs make early 2024 Fed rate cuts unlikely and point instead to a “bumpy landing.”
War, Rates, Carta Chaos, DEI Backlash: All-In’s Turbulent Tour
The episode opens with analysis of U.S.-led strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, debating strategic futility, escalation risk with Iran, and whether the Biden administration is engaging in a political “wag the dog” maneuver. They then pivot to macroeconomics, arguing that sticky inflation, geopolitical oil risks, and rising layoffs make early 2024 Fed rate cuts unlikely and point instead to a “bumpy landing.”
A major segment dissects Carta’s scandal: using privileged cap table data to solicit secondary share sales, why that’s a profound trust violation, the lack of true software defensibility in cap-table SaaS, and how AI-enabled competitors can now clone 80% of such products at 10% of the price. This leads to Chamath outlining his new 8090 incubator aimed at systematically undercutting overpriced SaaS, and Sacks describing his forthcoming Slack competitor, Glue.
In the final third, the group tackles DEI and culture wars in entertainment and institutions, critiquing Disney’s politicization of Star Wars, new Academy Award diversity standards, and large DEI bureaucracies in universities and companies. They argue for skill- and merit-based selection in high-stakes professions (e.g., pilots, surgeons), more focus on early education and family stability, and warn about legal and practical contradictions in contemporary DEI practice.
Key Takeaways
U.S. strikes on Houthis likely escalate conflict without restoring deterrence.
Sacks argues the Yemen strikes won’t stop Houthi attacks on shipping, risk wider war with Iran, and shift retaliation toward the U. ...
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Don’t over-price in aggressive 2024 rate cuts; expect a bumpy landing.
Sticky components of CPI (like lagged car insurance costs), ongoing geopolitical risks to oil, and a visible uptick in layoffs suggest the market’s optimism on rapid Fed easing may be premature.
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Geopolitically driven oil shocks are more dangerous now given a depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The SPR is at its lowest level since the early 1980s after being used to dampen gas prices, leaving the U. ...
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Data custodians that monetize privileged information without consent will lose their core business.
Carta’s move to tap cap-table data to source secondary trades broke the implicit and explicit trust of founders, demonstrating that in infrastructure roles, long-term SaaS value depends more on trust than on adjacent monetization schemes.
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Many SaaS categories are vulnerable to rapid, low-cost AI-driven disruption.
Chamath contends cap-table management is “process automation” with weak moats, and that new tools plus offshore teams can now recreate 80% of feature sets at 10% of the incumbent’s price; Carta clones emerging in days illustrate this.
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Slack’s channel model doesn’t scale cleanly; there’s room for a rethink.
Sacks notes that in larger orgs everyone ends up in every channel, creating noise; he aims for Glue to combine the strengths of feeds and chat while solving signal-to-noise and usability issues Slack hasn’t addressed under Salesforce.
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DEI efforts that override merit in high-stakes roles will face backlash and legal risk.
The hosts argue that in domains like aviation and surgery, selection must be purely skill-based; attempts to engineer proportional representation clash with anti-discrimination law and public expectations of safety, and risk discrediting DEI more broadly.
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Notable Quotes
““We’re incurring this cost and risk onto ourselves… for shipping lanes that mostly matter to Europe and China.””
— David Sacks
““I think what we’re realizing is that there are few difficult things in software… and as a result, every product will see a ton of competitors.””
— Chamath Palihapitiya
““The only reason startups give their data to Carta is because they trust them to keep it private.””
— David Sacks
““Software that doesn’t have a fundamental lock-in does not have pricing power.””
— Chamath Palihapitiya
““As soon as you tell somebody they can’t get the job even though they’re the most qualified because of their race or gender, that is racism or sexism.””
— David Sacks
Questions Answered in This Episode
If the U.S. bears most of the military risk while Europe and China bear most of the economic cost, how should American policy toward Red Sea security realistically change?
The episode opens with analysis of U. ...
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How should investors factor geopolitical tail risks like a Middle East oil shock into expectations for Fed policy and equity valuations in 2024?
A major segment dissects Carta’s scandal: using privileged cap table data to solicit secondary share sales, why that’s a profound trust violation, the lack of true software defensibility in cap-table SaaS, and how AI-enabled competitors can now clone 80% of such products at 10% of the price. ...
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In what types of SaaS categories are “80% of features at 10% of the price” most viable, and where do hidden iceberg-like complexities make that strategy unrealistic?
In the final third, the group tackles DEI and culture wars in entertainment and institutions, critiquing Disney’s politicization of Star Wars, new Academy Award diversity standards, and large DEI bureaucracies in universities and companies. ...
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
What governance and technical safeguards should be mandatory for platforms like Carta to ensure they never exploit privileged customer data for new business lines?
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How can societies simultaneously pursue fair opportunity, meaningful diversity, and strict meritocracy in life-or-death professions without creating the legal and cultural contradictions the hosts describe?
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Transcript Preview
Nick, can you cue the tape?
This is now the worst form of a sho- oh my God.
(laughs)
I, uh-
I mean the fact that he hit the rim is a miracle. (laughs)
...the, the most unaethle- what is? Oh my God. I have to-
Oh! Oh! Look at- oh!
I wish we could get slow motion on that. Oh. Do the slow mo.
It's like the ball, the ball is just moving forward.
Start the slow mo.
Now look at his hand. Look at the right hand. Look, oh! Look at- oh! (laughs)
Look at that. He let it- wh- what is that about?
One-handed.
It's-
I mean that has nothing to do with basketball.
It's the most unnatural- Oh. ... basketball/athletic movement I've seen. Come on. It wasn't that bad.
Mm, I mean the lean forward too is just-
You know the, the lean forward, the kind of like sassy jump.
(laughs)
You know, the sassy jump.
What are you saying when you say sassy? (laughs)
The little sashay. He little sashayed on the side there. It's nice.
I'm going all in. Let your winners ride.
Rain Man David Sachs.
I'm going all in. And I said- We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
Love you bet, Heidi.
Queen of Quinoa.
I'm going all in.
All right, everybody. Welcome to the All In Podcast with me again, the Chairman Dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Freiberg, the Sultan of Science, and The Rain Man himself, David Sachs. Our first topic will go to our war correspondent. The U.S. and its allies have struck Houthi targets in Yemen. Sachs?
Well, we talked about this two weeks ago on the show and we talked about it as a escalatory risk in the Middle East back then, and I think that that is playing out now. We fired, I don't know, maybe 100 rockets and missiles at Yemen last night. The purpose of the strike is to restore deterrence and, I guess, try and prevent the Houthis from attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea. But that deterrence is not working. I mean, there's already a new attack by the Houthis this morning of a commercial ship in the Red Sea. So, I don't think this is gonna have any impact other than to escalate the conflict in the Middle East and put us on a path to war with Iran, which is really where the Neocons want to take us. You've heard, obviously, the warmongers like Lindsey Graham are calling for that, but even Speaker Mike Johnson is talking about that. I think that's where this is all headed is a larger war in the Middle East that features the U.S. and Israel going to war with Iran. I think we should all be very concerned about that actually.
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