E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jason Calacanis (host), David Friedberg (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), David Sacks (host), Jason Calacanis (host), Narrator, David Sacks (host)
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg, E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more explores all-In Besties Forecast 2024: Geopolitics, AI, Markets, and Mayhem The hosts of the All-In Podcast share wide-ranging 2024 predictions across politics, business, technology, and markets, framed by a mix of dark geopolitical risk and optimism about innovation.
All-In Besties Forecast 2024: Geopolitics, AI, Markets, and Mayhem
The hosts of the All-In Podcast share wide-ranging 2024 predictions across politics, business, technology, and markets, framed by a mix of dark geopolitical risk and optimism about innovation.
Politically, they foresee Vladimir Putin and non-traditional US political movements as major winners, with Ukraine, Netanyahu, and the broader ‘collective West’ likely to lose ground.
On the business and tech front, they predict big upside for commodities, energy, uranium, Bitcoin, bootstrapped startups, and defense tech like Anduril, while warning of serious pain for overvalued AI/LLM startups, late-stage private SaaS, vertical SaaS, and possibly OpenAI’s valuation.
They expect AI to be profoundly deflationary, driving custom in-house software, generative media, AI-powered news, and efficiency via automation and global talent, while macro turbulence, high debt, and rising conflict risks—including a non-trivial chance of nuclear use—create a highly uncertain backdrop.
Key Takeaways
Putin is positioned as a major geopolitical ‘winner’ in 2024.
Sacks argues Russia has stabilized its economy, gained ground in Ukraine, and increased influence in the Global South and BRICS, turning Western sanctions and ‘Project Ukraine’ into strategic own-goals for the West.
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Independent and centrist candidates could meaningfully disrupt the US two‑party system.
Multiple hosts highlight growing voter disgust with both Democrats and Republicans, pointing to RFK Jr. ...
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AI will drive a brutal reset in software economics, especially for vertical and late‑stage SaaS.
Friedberg and Chamath see generative tools and low‑code platforms enabling cheap in‑house replacements for expensive vertical SaaS, compressing pricing and margins, and hammering overvalued private SaaS valuations.
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Training data and IP rights-holders may become structurally powerful in the AI stack.
JCal predicts that publishers like The New York Times, Reddit, X, and Disney will secure nine‑figure licensing deals or revenue shares as LLMs are forced to respect copyright, creating a durable economic position for content owners.
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Macro and geopolitical risks remain high, with non-trivial nuclear escalation risk.
Friedberg warns that depleted munitions, high global debt, and multiple active conflicts raise the probability—still low but rising—of a tactical nuclear weapon being used, as well as potential fractures in NATO (e. ...
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Bitcoin and uranium are seen as standout asymmetric bets.
Chamath calls 2024 Bitcoin’s most important year, expecting ETF approvals and mainstream adoption, while Friedberg flags the uranium ETF (URA) as poised to benefit from a global nuclear energy buildout and policy tailwinds.
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AI and automation will accelerate a global efficiency and outsourcing trend.
The group expects companies to lean heavily on AI, robots, and remote/global talent to offset labor costs and shortages, making ‘efficiency’—via software, automation, and offshoring—a defining business trend of 2024.
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Notable Quotes
““My prediction for biggest political winner in 2024 is Vladimir Putin.””
— David Sacks
““I think this election starts the breakdown of the two-party system.””
— Chamath Palihapitiya
““Vertical SaaS businesses… are gonna get smacked this year.””
— David Friedberg
““This is the most important year for Bitcoin that has ever existed.””
— Chamath Palihapitiya
““People buying secondary at 90 billion [OpenAI] right now will be underwater next year.””
— Chamath Palihapitiya
Questions Answered in This Episode
If the ‘collective West’ and Ukraine lose influence as predicted, what concrete scenarios might that create for global security and energy markets by the end of 2024?
The hosts of the All-In Podcast share wide-ranging 2024 predictions across politics, business, technology, and markets, framed by a mix of dark geopolitical risk and optimism about innovation.
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
How far and how fast can AI-driven in‑house tools realistically replace vertical SaaS before organizations hit complexity, maintenance, and security walls?
Politically, they foresee Vladimir Putin and non-traditional US political movements as major winners, with Ukraine, Netanyahu, and the broader ‘collective West’ likely to lose ground.
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
If training data owners gain durable leverage over AI companies, how might that reshape media business models and the balance of power between tech platforms and publishers?
On the business and tech front, they predict big upside for commodities, energy, uranium, Bitcoin, bootstrapped startups, and defense tech like Anduril, while warning of serious pain for overvalued AI/LLM startups, late-stage private SaaS, vertical SaaS, and possibly OpenAI’s valuation.
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
What would a genuine fracturing of NATO (e.g., around Turkey) practically look like, and how would it impact Europe’s security and economic stability?
They expect AI to be profoundly deflationary, driving custom in-house software, generative media, AI-powered news, and efficiency via automation and global talent, while macro turbulence, high debt, and rising conflict risks—including a non-trivial chance of nuclear use—create a highly uncertain backdrop.
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
If Bitcoin ETFs succeed in bringing mainstream adoption, does Bitcoin become more like a digital gold with lower upside—or does it open the door to entirely new financial use cases?
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
Transcript Preview
I found out about a Freebird purchase that is just... You were there, Chamath. You heard what he bought.
What did I buy? Pickles? The quinoa? What- what was it?
No, no. Sacks, you missed this because you're- you are a sunbird now, and the rest of us are snowbirds over the holidays. But the three of us have been hanging out, skiing, having dinner for a couple of weeks, and we had a little wives dinner. And one of the wives was complaining about-
Oh, the suits, the radiation suits.
... Freebird's purchasing.
Oh my God.
So Freebird-
Do you guys have pictures?
Oh. (laughs)
Do you have pictures of the radiation suits? I don't have pictures of the radiation suits. I'm trying to find them, but-
Wait, what? Radiation suits? I thought you were gonna talk about, like, Brioni suits or something.
No.
Not radiation suits?
You know how you went into full-scale panic mode and you... Uh, during COVID and you had your whole outfit, your (laughs) -
Yeah.
... your, your, your hazmat suit? Freebird, just because he's panicked about nuclear proliferation has bought suits for his entire family, thousands of dollars of radiation suits and-
Nuclear fallout.
Yeah.
... and he bought one for his dog.
Dogs. (laughs)
Dogs.
Dogs.
Dogs, sorry. Dogs.
For Monty and Daisy. I should send you guys the photo of the dog horn.
Well, do you have a bunker? I mean...
I've got it all taken care of.
You need a bunker first, right?
I think that's underway as well.
How do you get to your bunker, Freebird, with- with the pilots that you'll be asking to leave their families?
(laughs)
(laughs)
(laughs)
(laughs)
Or will you be protecting them with the guns that were stolen from your house?
(laughs)
(laughs)
(laughs)
At least you'll have the thousands of pickles you've made. (laughs)
(laughs)
And the pounds of quinoa.
I didn't know Freebird was a prepper. Did you know this, Sacks?
(laughs)
'Cause Sacks has a little prepper in him.
No, no. Sacks, Freebird was howling because he was so mad. He made, like, thousands and thousands of pickles and nobody would eat them, including himself.
Because they were so terrible.
(laughs)
You literally bought a radiation pod for your dogs.
Yeah, so they... That's their air filter on the right so that they don't breathe in the nuclear fallout, cloud.
Well, I-
Oh, I kinda like the, the prepping.
Thank you, sir. Yeah, it's good. You guys don't understand. There's a reason evolution happens in moments of what we call punctuated equilibrium. There's a massive event and certain, you know, things survive and then that becomes the proliferant species going forward. This is the moment. Be ready.
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