E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Jason Calacanis (host), David Sacks (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), Jason Calacanis (host), David Sacks (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), David Friedberg (host), David Friedberg (host)
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and David Sacks, E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more explores all-In Besties Predict 2022 Power Shifts, Crashes, And Comebacks The hosts of the All-In Podcast use a mix of banter and analysis to lay out their 2022 predictions across politics, business, crypto, media, and geopolitics.
All-In Besties Predict 2022 Power Shifts, Crashes, And Comebacks
The hosts of the All-In Podcast use a mix of banter and analysis to lay out their 2022 predictions across politics, business, crypto, media, and geopolitics.
They forecast major political realignments (DeSantis’ rise, progressive left backlash, Xi and Putin’s positioning, U.S. influence at risk) and expect a red wave in the U.S. midterms with Biden, Trump, and Pelosi as key losers.
On the business and market side, they highlight small businesses, Stripe, regional ‘rise of the rest,’ and early-stage startups as winners, while calling for a massive shakeout in crypto, pressure on Visa/Mastercard, and asset repricing as Fed liquidity ends.
They also predict a narrative flip on COVID in mainstream media, intensified culture wars (schools, teachers’ unions, crime), and big breakthroughs in longevity biotech and climate-related energy/nuclear investments, while teasing their own expansion into ‘All-In Media.’
Key Takeaways
Expect a U.S. political realignment with DeSantis rising and the progressive left retrenching.
The hosts see Ron DeSantis cruising to re-election in Florida and becoming the GOP frontrunner, while predicting a red wave in the midterms, a damaged Biden, Trump fading, Pelosi retiring, and a broader backlash against progressive policies in cities and Congress.
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Geopolitical power may tilt toward authoritarian states even as U.S. soft power is questioned.
Predictions include Putin gaining leverage via energy and China ties, Xi Jinping consolidating ‘ruler for life’ status and exploiting supply-chain dependence, and U. ...
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Small businesses, non-coastal regions, and younger generations could be the big economic winners.
They anticipate policy and antitrust pressure capping mega-cap growth while enabling ‘David vs. ...
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Crypto faces a brutal shakeout, even as Web3 payments threaten legacy rails.
Several hosts agree that 80–90% of current crypto projects will implode as rates rise and leverage unwinds, yet Chamath argues that well-designed Web3 payment protocols and P2P systems (especially in emerging markets) will erode the Visa/Mastercard duopoly over the next decade.
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The Fed’s end to quantitative easing could reprice ‘everything bubble’ assets.
Sacks warns that while rate hikes may be partly priced in, markets haven’t fully internalized the impact of reduced liquidity on inflated assets like collectibles, art, crypto, and growth stocks, making them vulnerable once the “drug” of QE is removed.
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School closures and COVID policies created a deep, under-addressed crisis for children.
They argue that learning loss, mental health issues, addiction to screens/games, and social regression—especially among poorer and minority kids—are the most under-reported costs of the pandemic, and commit to championing school choice and accountability for teachers’ unions and school boards.
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Biotech and climate tech could see 2022 ‘gold rushes’ in longevity and nuclear/energy.
Friedberg highlights massive capital flows into Yamanaka-factor-based cell reprogramming (Altos Labs, Calico, NewLimit) as a potential ‘fountain of youth’ frontier, while also pointing to China’s aggressive nuclear buildout and energy/defense stocks as winners in a world of rising conflict and climate urgency.
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Notable Quotes
“DeSantis... treated the population like adults. He kept businesses open, schools open, and I think the rest of the country is gonna come around to his point of view.”
— David Sacks
“My biggest business loser for 2022 is Visa and Mastercard... I think this is their peak market cap.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“We have literally put tens of millions of children at risk because of our behavior.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“I think populism is anti-elitism, and... until we have massive taxation and redistribute wealth in a meaningful way, that voice is gonna get any quieter.”
— David Friedberg
“The media is gonna pull a total 180 on COVID... After pumping out COVID fear porn for two years, they're gonna change their tune next year.”
— David Sacks
Questions Answered in This Episode
How accurate were their 2022 predictions in hindsight, particularly around DeSantis, Pelosi, crypto, and Visa/Mastercard?
The hosts of the All-In Podcast use a mix of banter and analysis to lay out their 2022 predictions across politics, business, crypto, media, and geopolitics.
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
Is the claim that most crypto projects will implode while a few dominate analogous to the dot-com era, or is the underlying technology shift fundamentally different?
They forecast major political realignments (DeSantis’ rise, progressive left backlash, Xi and Putin’s positioning, U. ...
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
What practical mechanisms could realistically rein in teachers’ unions and accelerate school choice without worsening inequality?
On the business and market side, they highlight small businesses, Stripe, regional ‘rise of the rest,’ and early-stage startups as winners, while calling for a massive shakeout in crypto, pressure on Visa/Mastercard, and asset repricing as Fed liquidity ends.
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
How should societies balance the ethical arguments against industrial animal agriculture with cultural norms and the current cost/taste advantages of meat?
They also predict a narrative flip on COVID in mainstream media, intensified culture wars (schools, teachers’ unions, crime), and big breakthroughs in longevity biotech and climate-related energy/nuclear investments, while teasing their own expansion into ‘All-In Media.’
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
If mainstream media narratives on COVID and politics are as malleable as suggested, where should citizens look for trustworthy information and accountability?
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
Transcript Preview
So, I was not gonna bring this up. Sax said bring it up.
No, no, no, no, no. No, no, no. You're already creating mischaracterizations.
(laughs)
You said you wanted to bring it up. I'm like, "Sure, I don't- I'm not gonna veto it, go for it."
No, I said, well we have to bring up my COVID, obviously. I'm the second bestie to get COVID. And I told you offline, without the other two besties, uh, I will just say I got it at a social function, period, end of story. You said it's okay to talk about... I got it at your-
Yeah, that's not like I wanted to bring it up. You want to bring it up and I'm a- allowing it because I- I'm fine with it, so go for it.
We all got something at Sax's event. You got COVID-
(laughs)
I got chlamydia.
(laughs)
Oh, you guys went to the downstairs rooms? (laughs)
(laughs) We went downstairs-
I skipped the basement level.
... and I got gonorrhea, goddammit. (laughs)
Chamath again? You promised... It was a great party.
All right, let's- let's hear Jason's accusations. I've been hearing about it all week in the chat.
There's no accusation! It was a great party.
No, you've been saying it was a GOP super-spreader.
We didn't know at the party.
You are, you are re-taking COVID, Jason. You are angry. You are angry and you are- No.
Yeah, you were really mad at Sax because you thought he actually gave you COVID even though Sax had people test, every single person tested on the way in.
Except you, J-Cal. J-Cal, you walked around the velvet rope-
I have st- it's, uh-
And you said, "Guess what? I'm a bestie, I don't have to test."
Yeah.
And you walk right in that party.
(laughs)
And guess what? At the end of the day-
It's so not true.
At the end of the day, there is nothing-
The one person that flouted the rules got it.
(laughs)
Karma's a bitch, J-Cal.
Nothing better personifies poetic justice as what took place.
I- I do not place blame on anybody for hosting-
All year round you rant-
... a super-spreader.
... you rant at Sax, you make fun of him, you poke him, you poke the bear-
What?
Republican this, blah, blah, blah, that. Don't let me test.
It was a Republican super-spreader! It was a GOP super-spreader. And then you go to his party and you run around the velvet rope and you don't get your test and you go in and you walk out with COVID. Why should I have to test? (laughs) Why should I have to test?
That was amazing. That was really amazing.
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