E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
Chamath Palihapitiya (host), Jason Calacanis (host), David Sacks (host), David Friedberg (host), Narrator
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis, E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps explores all-In Besties Dissect Inflation, Jobs, Housing, Energy, And Dutch Farmers The hosts analyze the evolving macro environment, arguing the U.S. is in a complex, multi-phase downturn combining a supply-side shock from COVID with looming demand destruction driven by Fed rate hikes and inflation. They explore labor market distortions, record job openings, shifting work patterns, and how consumer sentiment diverges from current spending behavior. A major focus is on housing, commercial real estate (especially San Francisco), and systemic risks from office vacancies and falling asset values. They also debate energy policy, rare earths, the EU’s nuclear pivot, and the Dutch farmer protests as examples of technocratic overreach, climate policy missteps, and the growing gap between elites and working-class concerns.
All-In Besties Dissect Inflation, Jobs, Housing, Energy, And Dutch Farmers
The hosts analyze the evolving macro environment, arguing the U.S. is in a complex, multi-phase downturn combining a supply-side shock from COVID with looming demand destruction driven by Fed rate hikes and inflation. They explore labor market distortions, record job openings, shifting work patterns, and how consumer sentiment diverges from current spending behavior. A major focus is on housing, commercial real estate (especially San Francisco), and systemic risks from office vacancies and falling asset values. They also debate energy policy, rare earths, the EU’s nuclear pivot, and the Dutch farmer protests as examples of technocratic overreach, climate policy missteps, and the growing gap between elites and working-class concerns.
Key Takeaways
Current inflation is driven by both supply and demand, requiring a multi-phase correction.
The hosts argue COVID lockdowns created a supply-side recession by idling capacity while trillions in stimulus boosted demand; now the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes risk a second, demand-side recession as savings are depleted and credit stress rises.
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The labor market is bifurcated between white-collar slowdown and blue-collar shortages.
Tech and professional jobs are tightening while hospitality and retail still struggle to hire, with two job openings per unemployed worker and depressed labor-force participation suggesting structural issues and misaligned incentives rather than simple overheating.
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Commercial real estate, especially in tech-heavy cities, faces severe structural risk.
San Francisco is projected to hit roughly 40% office vacancy as long-term leases roll off, undermining building cash flows, breaching debt covenants, and potentially triggering fire sales and broader financial contagion in lenders and debt funds.
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Housing is the critical ‘next shoe to drop’ for households’ perceived wealth.
Mortgage rates have spiked from ~2. ...
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Consumer behavior has not yet fully matched negative sentiment, but credit stress is building.
Despite record-low sentiment and widespread belief that a recession has begun, travel and discretionary spending remain strong, likely funded by remaining savings and rising credit card balances; delinquencies and job losses are key indicators to watch next.
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Energy and climate policy missteps show the danger of technocratic, elite-driven decision-making.
The panel criticizes Europe’s prior rush away from nuclear and hydrocarbons, its dependence on Russian energy, and now-aggressive Dutch ammonia rules as examples where round-number climate targets ignore technological pathways, economic realities, and working-class livelihoods.
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Market-based incentives and technology are better tools for decarbonization than blunt bans.
Friedberg highlights emerging solutions—microbes that fix nitrogen, smarter fertilizer timing, and improved ag-tech—that can cut emissions without destroying farms; the group argues that gradual carbon pricing or tradable permits would drive adoption more effectively than abrupt caps.
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Notable Quotes
“We have been in a supply-side recession, and now by raising rates to some crazy amount, we may actually then trigger the demand destruction to have a demand-side recession.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“There’s literally no way to predict this. It’s like throwing three rocks in a pond and trying to model how the ripples interact.”
— David Friedberg
“I don’t understand how in a place like downtown San Francisco half the buildings don’t end up getting owned by the banks.”
— David Sacks
“Humans use roughly between two and six percent of our energy every year to make ammonia… If not for synthetic fertilizer, humans would have starved in the mid-20th century.”
— David Friedberg
“There are structural lies baked into ESG. There’s nothing ESG about Conoco and Exxon per se. It’s ridiculous.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
Questions Answered in This Episode
How should policymakers sequence solutions to a multi-phase crisis that spans supply chains, excess money, and eventual demand destruction without triggering a deep recession?
The hosts analyze the evolving macro environment, arguing the U. ...
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What are realistic timelines and policy frameworks for converting distressed commercial office space into housing, and who bears the financial losses in that transition?
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Given the divergence between consumer sentiment and spending, which leading indicators (credit delinquencies, job losses, savings rates) best signal when behavior will finally change?
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How can climate policy be redesigned to incorporate technological innovation and market incentives while avoiding sudden shocks to farmers, energy producers, and working-class communities?
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What does the backlash against ESG, Dutch farmer protests, and criticism of Biden’s economic messaging reveal about the growing gap between global elites and everyday voters—and how might that reshape politics in the next decade?
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Transcript Preview
You're seeing now the, the fresh summer collection of Loro Piana. This, Jason-
Oh, really?
... is the thin summer gilet, okay?
Really?
Beautiful cashmere.
Continue.
Uh, it's called like the king's cashmere or something. And then this-
Okay. Very summery.
... is called a, uh, lovely yellow boating sweater. Anyways-
Boating sweater.
... I took sacks to my tailor and I took them to, uh, Loro Piana. And then at some point, I just fucking lost them and then I haven't seen them since, so... (laughs)
You took them to your tailor and to Loro Piana? Okay.
And to Loro Piana, yeah.
Okay. Right. Wow.
Anyways.
Great that, um, the show remains accessible to the every man and woman-
Their socks.
(laughs) Yeah.
(laughs)
(laughs)
Fuck yeah. (laughs)
(laughs)
Look at you two, it's like twins.
(laughs)
Oh.
Oh my God, it's so perfect.
(laughs)
Italy, you and the Sri Lankans too. Wow. Oh my Lord. Oh my Lord.
Oh my God. Do you guys have an announcement today? Is there an announcement? Good to see everybody is focused on what matters. Okay, everybody, welcome to All-In, episode 86, end of the world, except for these two douchebags.
We thought it'd be really funny to fi- to find the exact same outfit at Loro Piana and wear... (laughs)
I feel fully styled.
What a great look. (laughs)
You guys look so good.
It's like Dumb and Dumber in Italy.
(laughs) Oh, let your winners ride.
Rain Man, David Sachs.
And I said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
Love you, bestie.
Queen of quinoa. I'm going all in.
Hey, everybody. Welcome to episode 86 of the All-In podcast. We're not dead yet, uh, still publishing. With us from Italy, uh, the Rain Man and the Dictator in matching outfits.
(laughs)
Gentlemen, how is Italy?
It's fantastic.
Uh, and also with us, the sultan of science himself, David Friedberg, from an undisclosed conference, uh, somewhere, which we can't talk about. How you doing, buddy?
I'm off the record this week.
Off the record this week, and a little hungover it seems. Yeah. Ooh.
Yeah, I know.
You need a cup of coffee?
Late night.
Drinking a little scotch last night?
Late night.
A little scotch? What'd you-
Yeah, I went, I went scotch and beer, and it was, uh, it was a late night.
All right, everybody. We got a lot of news to get through. Let's just parse through some of the data because data has been coming in, and the minutes from the June Fed are out. The key quote, uh, "Significant risk that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Fed." So they went from transient to now fearing entrenched. Um, jobs have slipped a little bit. This is something we've been talking about, but just to give some context here, we're still at historic, uh, number of job openings. We peaked in March, 11.9 million. Uh, in May, we, uh, we dropped down to 11.3 and, uh, 11 million for six straight months. It's just extraordinary. If you look at this, uh, Fred chart, it, it's just astounding to think that this many jobs are available, two-for-one, in the United States. Uh, there are two jobs available for every one person who needs a job. And, um, this, they're just, uh, absolutely stunning if you look at the, um-
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