E58: November's CPI, preparing for a downturn, macro outlook, Better.com's botched layoffs & more
Chamath Palihapitiya (host), Jason Calacanis (host), Narrator, David Friedberg (host), David Sacks (host), David Sacks (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), Vishal Garg (guest), Victim in news clip (guest), Unidentified brief voice (guest)
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Chamath Palihapitiya and Jason Calacanis, E58: November's CPI, preparing for a downturn, macro outlook, Better.com's botched layoffs & more explores all-In Besties Debate Inflation, Government Spending, Market Froth, Layoffs, Chaos The hosts dive into surging U.S. inflation, criticizing the Fed and Biden administration for misreading it as “transitory” and continuing massive stimulus in a now-overheated economy.
All-In Besties Debate Inflation, Government Spending, Market Froth, Layoffs, Chaos
The hosts dive into surging U.S. inflation, criticizing the Fed and Biden administration for misreading it as “transitory” and continuing massive stimulus in a now-overheated economy.
They unpack structural labor shifts—the “Great Resignation,” under-immigration, boomer retirements, rising wages, and the rise of solo entrepreneurship and the creator economy—alongside asset bubbles in tech, crypto, and housing.
The conversation turns to capital allocation, arguing private innovators like Elon Musk deploy capital far better than government, and warning founders about over-raising and over-growing in a changing macro environment.
They close by dissecting Better.com’s viral Zoom layoffs as a symptom of SoftBank-style hyper-growth incentives, and the Jussie Smollett case as an example of media rush-to-judgment versus a court system that, in their view, often still gets it right.
Key Takeaways
Inflation is higher and more persistent than official CPI suggests.
They argue the CPI understates reality—especially housing via owners’ equivalent rent—and note that single-family rental data imply true inflation could be near or above 10%, not 6.8%.
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Current fiscal policy is misaligned with an already-stimulated economy.
With trillions already spent on COVID relief and infrastructure, they see Build Back Better as an unnecessary, gimmick-laden bill that will quietly become permanent, worsen deficits, and force harsher Fed tightening.
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Founders must rethink growth plans in light of tightening liquidity.
As the Fed signals faster tapering and rate hikes, public growth stocks and crypto have corrected 30–40%; they advise startups to secure extra runway now, assume lower future valuations, and distinguish value from valuation.
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The labor market is undergoing a structural reset, not just a “worker shortage.”
Under-immigration, boomer wealth and early retirements, debt-laden degree holders, and better alternatives (Amazon warehouses, creator economy, new LLCs) mean low-wage, low-quality jobs must radically raise pay or automate.
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Government is a poor capital allocator compared to top entrepreneurs.
Quoting Elon, they argue leaders like Musk reinvest capital into high-impact innovation (EVs, rockets), while governments, as ever-growing organisms, face weak incentives and political distortions that produce waste.
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Hyper-growth funding models create avoidable human damage in downturns.
They frame Better. ...
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Courts often correct media and political rush-to-judgment narratives.
Contrasting the Jussie Smollett hoax and cases like Derek Chauvin, Ahmaud Arbery’s killers, Kyle Rittenhouse, and Kenneth Walker, they argue juries have repeatedly delivered more balanced outcomes than polarized media coverage.
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Notable Quotes
“It does not make sense to take the job of capital allocation away from people who have demonstrated great skill in capital allocation and give it to an entity that has demonstrated very poor skill, which is the government.”
— Elon Musk (quoted by the hosts)
“You cannot get confused that value and valuation are not the same thing.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“The amazing thing right now is every investor I know is having the same conversation: what are interest rates gonna do, how much liquidity will that suck out of the system, and how much of the boom was just unnatural liquidity?”
— David Sacks
“The incentive for the big investor is quite different than it is for you. They don't care if you die as long as one out of ten goes 100x.”
— David Friedberg
“Moderate is as moderate does. He has not governed like a moderate.”
— David Sacks on President Biden
Questions Answered in This Episode
How should startup founders practically adjust hiring, burn, and fundraising strategies if the current macro correction becomes a multi-year downcycle?
The hosts dive into surging U. ...
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What would a more accurate inflation metric look like if it fully incorporated real-time housing, healthcare, and asset price data instead of legacy survey-based components like owners’ equivalent rent?
They unpack structural labor shifts—the “Great Resignation,” under-immigration, boomer retirements, rising wages, and the rise of solo entrepreneurship and the creator economy—alongside asset bubbles in tech, crypto, and housing.
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Where is the line between necessary stimulus in crises and destructive over-stimulus that distorts markets and entrenches new political constituencies for permanent programs?
The conversation turns to capital allocation, arguing private innovators like Elon Musk deploy capital far better than government, and warning founders about over-raising and over-growing in a changing macro environment.
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Given the structural labor shifts and rising wages, which kinds of low-margin, labor-intensive business models are most likely to be automated away versus successfully reinvented?
They close by dissecting Better. ...
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What reforms—if any—could realistically improve government capital allocation and fiscal discipline, short of a “revolution” via alternative money systems like Bitcoin?
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Transcript Preview
Actually, it's a funny story from the, from Art Basel. So I was hanging with, with J-Cal, and we're talking to Beeple.
Yep. Great guy.
And for some reason, J-Cal was being nice to me and he said to Beeple, he said, "Do you know who this guy is? This guy is a legend in Silicon Valley." You know, he introduces me.
Yeah.
And then I said to Jace, I'm like, you know, "This is Beeple." And he, who just sold like two $60 million, like, NFTs.
Yeah.
I'm like, "This guy's a legend too." And without missing a beat, J-Cal says, "Well, maybe for the next year."
I'm going all in. Let your winners ride.
Rain Man David Sachs.
I'm going all in.
And I said-
We open sourced this to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
Love you, bestie.
Queen of Quinoa. I'm going all in.
Hey, everybody. Welcome to episode 58 of the All In podcast. Yes, the podcast. I don't know if you guys have been watching the stats.
I'm drinking, boys. I'm drinking.
Well, it's uh, Friday. We're, we're filming late on a Friday. You can tell from the backyard, uh, behind Chamath-
Mm, delicious.
... that it's the evening and he's cracked open a little something something.
A little, a little, little delishy poops. Little poops.
Oh.
Oh, Bond?
2002 St. Eden.
Hm. Hm.
That's a, that's a label of Bond, correct?
Yes, sir. Bond St. Eden 2002.
Oh, very nice. Uh, thanks for the invite. I'll be right over.
(laughs)
Uh, uh, episode 58 last week, episode 57 peaked at number 40 episodes in the world, so thank you to the fans. Uh, we broke 125,000 subscribers on YouTube and, uh, the pods over there are getting 150,000 views. So thank, just thank you to the fans. A lot of questions about the All In summit. I went to see the locations when I was in Miami. We've got the location we want, we're working on dates, and you'll have more information soon about that. Uh, so welcome back to the program. With us today, as always, is the sultan of science, the queen of quinoa himself, David Friedberg, the Rain Man. Yeah, he's definitely back from Art Basel. Of course, he went to Art Basel and I don't know if he bought any art, but I was on his boat with him, uh, or his rented boat. David Sachs and I were on a boat and-
Ooh, a rented boat? Wow.
Well, I mean, he hasn't bought one yet, but I think he's moving there. And then of course, the dictator himself, Chamali Palihapitiya here.
Chamali.
With an-
Chamali.
... obnoxiously expensive sweater. Tell us about that.
(laughs)
Ah, yes. Yes. Can I?
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