E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Jason Calacanis (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), David Sacks (host), Jason Calacanis (host), David Friedberg (host), David Sacks (host), Jason Calacanis (host), Tucker Carlson (guest), Chamath Palihapitiya (host)
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya, E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more explores markets soar, media implodes, borders erupt, fintech cracks, storms loom The episode opens with a discussion of strong U.S. macroeconomic data: surging GDP, record stock indices, moderating inflation, and robust jobs—raising the prospect of a 2024 ‘melt-up’ in markets driven by rate cuts and trillions sitting in cash.
Markets soar, media implodes, borders erupt, fintech cracks, storms loom
The episode opens with a discussion of strong U.S. macroeconomic data: surging GDP, record stock indices, moderating inflation, and robust jobs—raising the prospect of a 2024 ‘melt-up’ in markets driven by rate cuts and trillions sitting in cash.
The Besties then examine the costs of massive U.S. debt and rising interest payments, and argue that we’re exiting the zero‑rate era into a long period of structurally higher rates that will reshape business models and valuations.
They pivot to the collapse of legacy media—plunging ad revenue, layoffs, loss of trust, and the rise of experts and citizen journalists on platforms like X—criticizing sensationalism, bias, and ‘lying as a service’ while predicting a decentralized, subscription-driven future.
Later segments cover the Texas–Biden showdown over border security and migration politics, a fintech reckoning as ‘tech’ turns out to be mostly ‘fin’ with weak margins and high CAC, and climate-driven megastorm risk in California (ARkStorm 2.0), which they deem not imminent but increasingly likely over coming decades.
Key Takeaways
Market strength masks structural debt and rate risks.
Despite strong GDP (3. ...
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Expect a long-term shift from zero rates to a 2–4% world.
The hosts argue we’re unlikely to return to 2020–21-style ZIRP and money-printing; instead, businesses and investors must relearn how to operate and price risk in an environment with structurally higher rates and tighter capital.
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Legacy media is shrinking under broken economics and lost trust.
Ad dollars have migrated to Google, Meta, TikTok, Amazon, etc. ...
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Audiences are shifting to experts, citizen journalism, and subscriptions.
Direct channels (X, YouTube, podcasts, newsletters) let domain experts bypass gatekeepers, enabling users to triangulate facts across multiple voices; lean, subscription-based micro-outlets and solo journalists can now be economically viable.
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The border crisis is politically explosive and poorly aligned with public opinion.
Texas’ showdown with the Biden administration over razor wire symbolizes a wider clash: polls show large majorities want tougher border control, yet federal policy and legal moves appear to many as active under-enforcement or even sabotage.
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Most ‘fintech’ is really low-margin finance, not high-margin software.
Between loss ratios, interchange fees, fraud, and customer support, many fintechs have thin true margins, high paid acquisition, and weak LTV/CAC; as ZIRP fades, investors are realizing these businesses deserve financial, not SaaS, multiples.
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Gross margins are likely to normalize across ‘tech-enabled’ sectors.
Chamath argues that as accounting rules, competition, and policy shift, many supposed 70–80% gross-margin ‘tech’ companies will revert toward the historical ~40% S&P 500 average, because they are effectively tech-enabled versions of traditional sectors.
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Notable Quotes
“When we look back 18 to 24 months from now, the market will probably be materially higher because there's just so much money on the sidelines.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“We filled that hole over the last couple of years. Now we've got the quandary of how do we get out of the hole that we're gonna have to pay back over time.”
— David Friedberg
“I think Governor Abbott here is probably gonna lose in a court of law, but he's gonna win in the court of public opinion.”
— David Sacks
“A lot of fintech businesses are just fin businesses. There are a few that are doing great, but many of them masqueraded as having some unique tech advantage until those numbers started to play out.”
— David Friedberg
“Technology is no longer a definable sector… it’s much safer if you say this is a tech‑enabled version of X, and X is all of these other historical sectors of the economy that have existed.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
Questions Answered in This Episode
If the U.S. is entering a prolonged 2–4% rate environment, how should startups and investors recalibrate their assumptions about growth, leverage, and valuations?
The episode opens with a discussion of strong U. ...
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What concrete, credible path exists to prevent federal interest costs from crowding out other spending, given persistent deficits and political gridlock on fiscal reform?
The Besties then examine the costs of massive U. ...
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How can news organizations rebuild trust and sustainable economics without defaulting to clickbait or partisan ‘lying as a service’ in a world dominated by platforms like X and YouTube?
They pivot to the collapse of legacy media—plunging ad revenue, layoffs, loss of trust, and the rise of experts and citizen journalists on platforms like X—criticizing sensationalism, bias, and ‘lying as a service’ while predicting a decentralized, subscription-driven future.
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Is there a politically viable immigration framework that combines strict border control with a transparent, merit-based legal system and clearly defined humanitarian intake?
Later segments cover the Texas–Biden showdown over border security and migration politics, a fintech reckoning as ‘tech’ turns out to be mostly ‘fin’ with weak margins and high CAC, and climate-driven megastorm risk in California (ARkStorm 2. ...
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What metrics and heuristics should investors use to distinguish robust, durable fintech models from those that are simply subsidizing growth through underpriced financial products and high CAC?
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Transcript Preview
Is this a real picture? Is this Helmuth?
Yeah. (laughs)
Come on, stop. That's not Helmuth.
No, no, no. This is Helmuth. This is Helmuth last year. (laughs)
(laughs)
Yeah, I recognize the gut.
That's Darth Vader? (laughs)
I recognize the gut, very... It's like a fingerprint. (laughs)
(laughs) You gut printed him? You gut printed him?
(laughs)
Oh my God. Look at this picture. Pull it up. (laughs)
Oh, no. Oh, no.
He's hiding. He's such a disaster. (laughs)
This is unbelievable. This is unbelievable.
I don't- I don't think you guys know. There's a treasure trove. You go to Google Images and you type in Phil's name and WSOP.
Which is the last thing I would ever do.
Dozens of these, dozens. Every year, he dresses up in some outfit.
Oh, my God. Oh, my God.
Let me see which ones I like.
Yeah, the plunging V-line's a little much.
(laughs)
I could do without the plunge.
I mean, he does have perky C-cups, so...
(laughs)
Sometimes you gotta use your assets, Sacks. (laughs)
(laughs)
Oh, my Lord. Nick, pull this one up. (laughs)
Oh. (laughs)
Oh, my God. (laughs)
Oh, my God. (laughs)
Oh, my God. It's Helmuth.
It's just incredible.
It's Poseidon.
It's just incredible. It's incredible.
Oh, no, wait. It's Poseidon's whale. It's... No. No, it's Poseidon.
My gosh. Oh. Oh, Phil, we love you. We love you.
We love you, Phil.
We love you, Phil. Yeah.
And Phil loves attention.
Let your winners ride. Rain Man, David Sacks. I'm going all in. And I said... We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, WSOP. Queen of quinoa. I'm going all in.
All right, everybody. Welcome to episode 163 of the All-In Podcast. With me, of course, the sultan of beep science, we'll find out his crop soon, David Freiberg and David Sacks, the Rain Man himself. And of course, Chairman and Dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya. Let's get to work, boys. Tons and tons of interesting topics on the docket. Markets are ripping. Jobs and inflation looking good as the Dow hits an all-time high. Uh, forget about soft landings, boys. Sentiment is now flipping to a market melt-up in 2024. The GDP numbers that just came out smashed it 3.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. Expectations were just 2%. Dow and S&P 500 both hit all-time highs in the past week. Dow's above 38,000 for the first time in history. CPI number, reasonable, up 30 basis points month over month. 3.4% from last year, getting close to that 2% target. And, uh, the jobs data beat expectations. 2023 jobs, not so bad at 2.7 million. It's the fifth strongest year for job increases since 2020. Real test will be, of course, this year. We've seen a bunch of layoffs. We'll get to that later. Gas prices plummeted 40% from $5 a gallon in the summer of 2022. Now just $3 a gallon. And consumers are apparently feeling great about the economy. University of Michigan, which is the most respected report on consumer sentiment, said it increased in the past two months, the most since 1991. And the Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey found that Americans' inflation expectations have reached their lowest point in three years. Kalshie, uh, is a prediction market I like to use and it says 37% chance of a cut by March. That's dropped, so people are thinking the rate cuts are going to get pushed back. And prediction markets also think four to five rate cuts still in 2024. But again, people seem to think that they're going to get pushed towards the spring or second half. Chamath, you alluded to this melt-up, I don't know, was it like three or four episodes ago, that we might have a chance of a market melt-up. Everything seems to be aligning here. What do you think?
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