E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jason Calacanis (host), David Sacks (host), Chamath Palihapitiya (host), David Friedberg (host), Guest (guest), Guest (guest), Guest (guest), Guest (guest), Guest (guest), Guest (guest), Guest (guest)
In this episode of All-In Podcast, featuring Jason Calacanis and David Sacks, E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more explores all-In Besties Debate Ukraine War, China Tensions, RFK Jr., Markets, Energy The episode mixes banter with deep dives into geopolitics, markets, and U.S. policy. The hosts discuss sobering sentiment at the Coatue investor summit, Ukraine’s struggling counteroffensive, and claims that an early peace deal was scuttled by Western leaders. They analyze U.S.–China relations following Blinken’s Beijing trip and Biden’s ‘dictator’ remark, plus implications for Taiwan, supply chains, and energy independence. The group also defends their support for RFK Jr., revisits COVID and lab-leak revelations, and dissects late‑stage startup repricings and government industrial policy such as the Ford EV battery loan.
All-In Besties Debate Ukraine War, China Tensions, RFK Jr., Markets, Energy
The episode mixes banter with deep dives into geopolitics, markets, and U.S. policy. The hosts discuss sobering sentiment at the Coatue investor summit, Ukraine’s struggling counteroffensive, and claims that an early peace deal was scuttled by Western leaders. They analyze U.S.–China relations following Blinken’s Beijing trip and Biden’s ‘dictator’ remark, plus implications for Taiwan, supply chains, and energy independence. The group also defends their support for RFK Jr., revisits COVID and lab-leak revelations, and dissects late‑stage startup repricings and government industrial policy such as the Ford EV battery loan.
Key Takeaways
Unprofitable tech startups must prioritize profitability or exit as capital tightens.
At the Coatue summit, investors warned around 1,400 unicorns that high-growth, cash-burning models won’t rebound like the ‘Magnificent Seven’; founders are told to either get profitable, get fit, or sell, as new funding at old valuations is unlikely.
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Ukraine’s counteroffensive faces severe Russian defenses and mounting losses.
Sacks argues the offensive has yielded minimal territorial gains, with heavy Ukrainian casualties and equipment losses against layered Russian fortifications, artillery superiority, and air assets, challenging optimistic Western narratives.
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The West may have passed on an early Ukraine peace framework to ‘weaken Russia.’
Citing Naftali Bennett, Ukrainian Pravda, Fiona Hill, and a displayed draft agreement, Sacks claims a deal—Russia back to pre-war lines in exchange for no NATO membership—was discouraged by Western leaders like Boris Johnson in favor of a long proxy war.
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U.S.–China relations are fragile, and rhetoric can quickly undo careful diplomacy.
While Blinken’s Beijing trip is seen as stabilizing and business leaders sense things ‘not getting worse,’ Biden’s offhand ‘dictator’ comment about Xi is criticized as an undisciplined gaffe that undermines progress and needlessly provokes Beijing.
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Taiwan, investors, and elites are quietly hedging against long-term U.S. protection.
The hosts point to the CHIPS Act, U. ...
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RFK Jr. gains support as an anti-establishment voice on war, speech, and COVID policy.
Chamath and Sacks defend hosting a fundraiser for RFK Jr. ...
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Unicorn valuations are normalizing, with many headed for down rounds or failure.
Brad estimates 30–40% of unicorns are ‘zombiecorns’ without real product–market fit, another large tranche will see 50–80% valuation cuts, and fewer than 10% have grown into prior valuations; secondary markets show ~60% discounts but often still not cheap enough for disciplined buyers.
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Industrial policy for energy and chips is seen as a necessary but messy security tool.
The group debates a $9. ...
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Notable Quotes
“They prefer to fight a proxy war of choice that was easily avoidable… It has not weakened Putin. It has weakened the United States and our allies.”
— David Sacks
“If there’s one thing this pod represents… it’s the need to have this conversation. The idea that we could be tiptoeing closer and closer to some land war in Europe unnecessarily… and you can’t trust what you’re being told.”
— Brad Gerstner
“We rammed something through and allowed it to be labeled a word that misappropriates what it is. It’s not a vaccine… it now makes people mistrust the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine.”
— Chamath Palihapitiya
“The mainstream media does not perform the function that you’re describing anymore. They act as the bodyguard for the elite, for the establishment.”
— David Sacks
“This is a once‑in‑a‑generation opportunity to reduce our national security risk profile and to achieve what is really a national security imperative, which is energy independence.”
— Brad Gerstner
Questions Answered in This Episode
If an early Ukraine peace framework truly existed, what concrete evidence and documentation should be released by all parties to settle the question of who walked away and why?
The episode mixes banter with deep dives into geopolitics, markets, and U. ...
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How should the U.S. recalibrate its China policy to avoid open conflict while still protecting its interests in Taiwan, technology, and regional security?
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What standards should voters use to judge candidates like RFK Jr. who strongly challenge establishment narratives on vaccines, wars, and censorship but have controversial positions on specific issues?
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Given the scale of unicorn repricing and ‘zombiecorns,’ how should founders and employees realistically reassess equity value, career decisions, and paths to liquidity over the next 3–5 years?
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Where is the optimal line between necessary industrial policy for national security (chips, energy, batteries) and counterproductive crony capitalism that distorts markets and entrenches incumbents?
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Transcript Preview
So wait a second, you guys, I saw that you were at a KOTU conference or a TPG conference? You were at some banking conference? Sacks?
Brad and I were both at the KOTU summit.
KOTU. KOTU is, uh, an- a large investor? Is it a, a hedge fund? Private equity?
They're a late stage fund. It's a big late stage fund.
Summit's a really big word. Uh, was it a summit or was it more like a meeting?
Well, it's like a two-day conference in Santa Barbara.
Ooh, nice.
They've done it a number of years in a row now. Last year, Brad and I went and we met with SBF.
(laughs)
Did I ever tell you that SBF story?
No, let's go.
(laughs)
Who's got crazier hair right now?
Take the hat off. (laughs)
You or SBF? Give us a quick-
I think it's this.
Take that hat off for a second. Take that Moncler off for a second.
(laughs)
Let's get a side by side. Oh my god. (laughs) . Sachs is using-
Let's see.
... no product.
It's not bad.
It's not that bad. You're starting to look like the emperor, like Senator Palpatine from Star Wars.
(laughs)
I mean, people are having a field day with his crazy hair.
(laughs)
But what was the vibe? If you said there was a vibe two years ago, the vibe was crypto mania, SBF was the belle of the ball. I suppose he'll be the belle of the ball when he goes in the, uh, hoosegow as well.
(laughs) And now it looks like he's getting off.
He's getting up. I thought he was getting off for that thing.
I guess is the fix in? Is the-
The fix is in.
... Ivy League fix is in? Oh, god. I mean, if he gets off-
Then they drop five charges. I agree.
Can you imagine if he gets off?
He's almost as protected as Hunter Biden.
(laughs)
(laughs) Here we go. (laughs)
(laughs)
Okay, everybody. Freeburg's not here this week. Insert jokes and conspiracy theories for the mids.
(laughs)
There's gonna be about 8,000 messages on a subreddit about Freeburg missing this week and Sacks missing last week. I'll let you guys all, uh, read into it. But what would you say Brad, Brad Gerstner back, of course, fifth bestie. Brad, what would you say the vibe was at this one? If it was SBF lunacy two years ago, what was the vibe this year?
Well, you know, first they put on an incredible event. It's called East Meets West. And it was really about bringing, you know, CEOs and founders from China to the States and connecting them with, uh, founders and CEOs in the United States. Um, listen, I think it's somber, right? There's a recognition that we've seen a bounce in the public markets, you know, off of this devastation in 2022. But I think, listen, they gave a great tough love speech discussion with the 1,400 unicorns that are out there and they said, "Do not expect your unprofitable tech company to bounce like one of the magnificent seven." Right? Those are highly profitable companies traded at 19, 20 times earnings. And if you are burning cash today, they're... You can't come back to the well, so you need to either figure out how to get profitable, figure out how to get fit, or you need to sell your business because, you know, the- there's not an endless stream of money. So I, I thought it was a sober view. You know, Larry Summers was there, and I think a lot of the people who called '22 right were looking for a hard landing in Q1 of this year, probably including, you know, as the... Larry was probably more in that camp. And I think everybody still views this distribution of probabilities over the course of the next four quarters. And, you know, whether it's Druckenmiller or Stern this morning on CNBC or whether it's Larry Summers, they're all saying, "Well, we could 30% chance of a hard landing Q4, Q1." So I would say it was sober.
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