Noam Chomsky: Putin, Ukraine, China, and Nuclear War | Lex Fridman Podcast #316

Will there be a war between US and China in the 21st century?

If there is, we're finished. A war between the US and China would destroy the possibilities of organized life on Earth.

The following is a conversation with Noam Chomsky, his second time on the podcast. This episode is focused on the war in Ukraine, and it is a departure from the way I usually do this podcast in several ways. Noam is a strong and healthy 93-year-old, but this conversation is enough to be cautious. It is brief, only one hour. It is more of an interview than a conversation due to the limitations of our audio and video connection. I decided it's best to get Noam's clear thoughts on this war and the complicated geopolitics of today and the rest of the 21st century that is unrolling before us. With our decisions and actions fully capable of either helping humanity flourish or unleashing global destruction and suffering. As a brief aside, perhaps you know this, but let me mention that I traveled to Ukraine and saw, heard, felt things that are haunting and gave me a lot to think about. Because of that, I've been really struggling to edit the videos I recorded. I hope to finish it soon. I'm sorry for these delays, and I'm especially sorry to the people there who gave me their time, their story, their heart. Please be patient with me. I hope you understand. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here's Noam Chomsky. You have studied and criticized powerful leaders and nations in times of global conflict and struggles for power. So let me ask you, what do you think motivates Vladimir Putin? Is it power, legacy, fame, geopolitical influence, or the flourishing of a nation he loves and represents?

I have no particular insight into Putin's mind. I can only watch the actions over the last 20, 25 years and read the statements. Took power about almost 25 years ago. Has held it since as prime minister or president. Uh, his first task was to try to overcome the chaos and disarray o- of the 1990s. During the '90s, uh, Gorbachev had a proposal. He, uh, called for, uh, a cooperative enterprise with the West. They would share an effort to rebuild what he called a common European home, uh, in which there would be no military alliances, just Russia, Western, US accommodation, with a move towards social democracy in, uh, former USSR and, uh, comparable moves in the United States. Well, that was quickly smashed. Uh, the United States had no interest in that. Uh, Clinton came along pretty soon, early '90s. Uh, Russia was induced to adopt a, what was called shock therapy, harsh quick market transformation, which devastated the economy, uh, created enormous social disarray, uh, uh, rise of, uh, what are called oligarchs, kleptocrats, and great mortali- high mortality. And, uh, Clinton started the policy of expanding NATO to the East in violation of firm, unambiguous promises to Gorbachev not to do so. Uh, Yeltsin, Putin's friend, opposed it, uh, other Russian leaders opposed it, but they didn't react. They accepted it. Uh, when Putin came in, he continued that policy. Meanwhile did reconstruct the Russian economy. Russian society became a viable deeply authoritarian society under his tight control. Uh, he himself was a... organized a major kleptocracy with him in the middle, be- apparently became very wealthy. On the international front, he pretty much continued the former policies. As, uh, US, uh, diplomats, practically every diplomat who had any contact with Russia had been dispatched there or knew about it. As they all warned from the '90s, that what Clinton was doing, expanded by his... by Bush, Bush II afterwards, was reckless and provocative. Uh, that, uh, Russia did have a clear red line before Putin, which he adhered to, uh, namely no NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. Uh, this is pretty much how things went on through the 2000s, uh, 2014. In 2008, uh, George Bush, President Bush did invite, uh...... Ukraine to join NATO. That was vetoed by France and Germany, but under US pressure, it was kept on the agenda. The Russians continued to object to the Western diplomats, including the pres- present, current head, head of the CIA and his predecessors warned that this was reckless, provocative, shouldn't be done, continued. Uh, Putin didn't do much. He stayed with it until pretty recently. After 2014, the uprising that, uh, uh, threw out the, uh, former president who was pro-Russian, uh, instituted anti-Russian laws. Uh, the United States and NATO began to a policy of, uh, moving to effectively integrate Ukraine into the NATO command, joint military exercises, uh, training, uh, sending weapons, and so on. Uh, Putin objected. Other Russian leaders objected. They're uni- unified on this, but didn't do much, continued with the proposals that, uh, NATO, that Ukraine be excluded from NATO and that there be some form of autonomy for the Donbas region. Meanwhile, in reaction to the, uh, the uprising, the Maidan uprising in 2014, uh, Russia moved in and took over Crimea, protecting its one warm water base and major naval base. Uh, US objected and recognized it, but things continued without notable conflict. Won't go through all the details. When Joe Biden came in, he expanded the program of, uh, what US military journals call a de facto integration of Ukraine within NATO. Uh, developed, proposed, uh, September 2021, proposed a enhanced program of preparation for NA- uh, NATO admission. Uh, it's extended with a formal statement in November. We're now practically up to the invasion. Putin's position hardened. Uh, France, mainly France, to an extent Germany, did make some moves towards possible negotiations. Uh, Putin dismissed them, uh, moved on to the direct invasion. Uh, that's wha- what are his, to get back to your question, what motivates him? I presume what he's been saying all along, uh, namely establishing his legacy as a leader who, uh, overcame the extensive destruction of Russia and massive weakening over it, restored his position as a world power, prevented Ukraine from entering NATO, but may have further ambitions as to, uh, dominating and controlling Ukraine very likely. Uh, there is a theory in the West that he suddenly became a total madman who wants to restore the great Russian empire. Uh, uh, this is combined with, uh, gloating over the fact that the Russian military is a paper tiger that can't even conquer cities a couple of kilometers from the border, but, uh, defended not even by a regular army. But somehow, along with this, he's planning to attack NATO powers, conquer Europe, uh, who knows what. It's impossible to put all these concepts together. They're totally internally contradictory. So what's my judgment? I think what motivates him is what he's been demonstrating in his actions, restore Russia as a great power, restore its economy, uh, control it as a total dictatorship, enrich himself and his cronies, uh, establish a legacy as a major figure in Russian history, uh, make sure that Ukraine does not join NATO, and, uh, probably by now he's hardened the position, maintain Crimea and the southeastern corridor to Russia and, uh, some ambiguous agreements about the Donbas region. That looks like his motivation. There's much speculation that goes beyond this, but it's very hard to reconcile with the asse- the assessment of the real world by the same people who are making the, uh, the grandiose, uh, uh, speculations.