Liv Boeree: Poker, Game Theory, AI, Simulation, Aliens & Existential Risk | Lex Fridman Podcast #314

Evolutionarily, we, you know, if we see a lion running at us, we didn't have time to sort of calculate the lion's kinetic energy and, you know, is it optimal to go this way or that way, you just reacted. And physically our bodies are well attuned to actually make right decisions. But when you're playing a game like poker, this is not something that you ev- you know, evolved to do, and yet you're in that same flight or fight response. Um, and so that's a really important skill to be able to develop, to basically learn how to, like, meditate in the moment and calm yourself so that you can think clearly.

The following is a conversation with Liv Boeree, formerly one of the best poker players in the world, trained as an astrophysicist, and is now a philanthropist and an educator on topics of game theory, physics, complexity, and life. This is the Lex Fridman Podcast. To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now, dear friends, here's Liv Boeree. What role do you think luck plays in poker and in life? You can pick whichever one you want, poker or life and/or life.

The longer you play, the less influence luck has. You know, like with all things, the bigger your sample size, um, the more the quality of your decisions or your strategies matter. Um, so to answer that question, yeah, in poker it really depends. If you and I sat and played 10 hands right now, I might only win 52% of the time, 53% maybe. Um, but if we played 10,000 hands, then I'll probably win, like, over 98, 99% of the time. So it's a question of sample sizes.

And what are you figuring out over time? The betting strategy that this individual does, or literally it doesn't matter against any individual over time?

Against any individual over time, the better player, because they're making better decisions. So what does that mean to make a better decision? Well, uh, to get into the real nitty-gritty already, um, basically poker is a game of math. Um, there are these strategies familiar with like Nash equilibria, that term, right?

Yes.

So there are these game theory optimal strategies that, that you can adopt. Um, and the closer you play to them, the less exploitable you are. So because I've studied the game a bunch, um, although admittedly not for a few years, but back in, you know, when I was playing all the time, um, I would study these game theory optimal solutions and try and then adopt those strategies when I go and play. So I'd play against you and I would do that. And because the objective when you're playing game theory optimal it's actually, it's a loss minimization thing that you're trying to do, um, your best bet is to try and play, uh, the sim- a sort of similar style. You also need to try and adopt this loss minimization. Um, but because I've been playing much longer than you, I'll be better at that. So first of all, you're not taking advantage of my mistakes. But then on top of that, I'll be better at recognizing when you are playing suboptimally and then deviating from this game theory optimal strategy to exploit your bad plays.