The Twenty Minute VCPredictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges
CHAPTERS
Format setup: Big Fat Quiz of 2025 + predictions for 2026
Harry frames the episode as a year-in-review and forward-looking prediction game, with Jason Lemkin and Rory O’Driscoll as the “quiz” contestants. The tone is set early: Rory is openly skeptical of wrap-up awards, while all three agree to play along.
Founder of the Year 2025: Anthropic’s Dario + standout operators
Jason argues that the real driver of 2025 was Claude’s leap (3.5→3.7→4), enabling “vibe coding” and a wave of AI apps, and credits Dario Amodei accordingly. Harry adds Gwynne Shotwell for SpaceX execution and Alex Wang for investor returns; the group debates “returns vs world impact.”
Fund of the Year: measuring venture by exits, aesthetics, and discipline
Rory picks Index based on a year defined by tangible liquidity/exit positioning (e.g., Wiz, Figma, Revolut markups). Jason counters with ‘aesthetic’ and momentum picks like Neo (and Crandum), emphasizing hustle, taste, and accelerator resurgence; Harry adds stage-by-stage winners.
Best by stage: Seed, Series A, and Growth fund standouts
Harry breaks out performance by fund stage: Hummingbird for seed-level multiples, Benchmark for early-stage discipline, and Thrive/Founders Fund for growth-scale deployment. The panel also debates what counts as “enough” performance in an AI-era where ownership and outcomes can be enormous.
Corporate investors & notable mentions: Google as a stealth powerhouse
Jason nominates Google as a de facto ‘fund’ based on deep strategic stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic, and Waymo. Harry and Rory add Menlo as a notable performer for timely entry into marquee AI exposure, emphasizing timing and conviction when “the train leaves the station.”
Investor of the Year: solo brands, liquidity wins, and cap-table signaling
Rory nominates Elad Gil for raising an enormous solo fund and becoming a preferred “stamp of approval” investor. Harry names Lee Marie (Kleiner Perkins) for big liquid outcomes, and the group re-emphasizes that exits and cash-on-cash ultimately define the scoreboard.
Breakout companies of 2025: OpenEvidence, Databricks, and ElevenLabs
Rory spotlights OpenEvidence’s rapid adoption by doctors and a clear monetization loop via pharma advertising. Jason argues Databricks “rode the AI wave” better than peers, while Harry picks ElevenLabs for explosive ARR growth and defending against incumbent competition.
Tools vs impact: why vibe-coding apps aren’t ‘world-changing’ yet
Rory pushes that Lovable/Replit-style products belong in the breakout conversation because they empower individuals and spread fast. Jason agrees they’re transformative tools but argues their broader “world impact” will be proven when they enable durable, revenue-scaled businesses.
Biggest surprises of 2025: talent wars, valuation ceilings, and circular deals
Rory is shocked by the intensity of talent acquisitions and compensation—Meta and others rewriting M&A and hiring norms to secure top AI teams. Jason’s surprise is the lack of a ‘ceiling’ on venture outcomes and how mega-private valuations change ownership math; Harry flags deal chaos and circular financing as a new normal.
2026 stock predictions: momentum names vs ‘cheap SaaS’ turnaround bets
Rory challenges the premise of predicting “best-performing” stocks and notes the top performers are often smaller, idiosyncratic names. Jason proposes a B2B leaders basket (Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake) and pivots to undervalued SaaS—especially Salesforce—if AI attach and monetization show up in bookings.
Why Salesforce could be the 2026 buy: Agentforce, attach rates, and pricing power
Jason’s core bet is that Salesforce customers will pay meaningful incremental dollars for GTM agents that reliably cut labor and increase follow-through on leads. Rory agrees the opportunity is massive but warns bundling/attribution games can backfire at renewal if customers don’t see durable value.
Buy one, short one (mega-cap edition): Google upside vs NVIDIA timing risk
Rory chooses buy Google, short NVIDIA based on the risk that the CapEx cycle slows and NVIDIA’s valuation becomes vulnerable; Google retains resilient core cashflows and optionality. Jason argues shorting NVIDIA in 2026 is a timing trap because semiconductor competition can’t materialize fast enough, and NVIDIA will reinvest cash to sustain the ecosystem.
IPO speculations for 2026: SpaceX, Anthropic, Databricks—and a Canva curveball
Rory and Harry converge on Anthropic and SpaceX as the most plausible 2026 IPOs, with Stripe/OpenAI less likely near-term. Jason predicts four backloaded IPOs—SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, Anthropic—arguing timing, narrative freshness, and capital needs will force action, while OpenAI waits due to burn and scale complexity.
AI and employment: measurable unemployment, political backlash, and ‘own the robots’
Jason asks whether AI-driven unemployment will show up in official data by end of 2026 and argues hard numbers would intensify societal fear. Rory counters that backlash may occur regardless of causality because AI leaders have already “confessed” to job disruption, so any unemployment rise could trigger a tech lash—driven more by politics than econometrics.
