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At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Jonathan Lai Predicts AI-Native Games Will Reinvent Gaming Through Startups
- Jonathan Lai describes two waves of AI in games: faster, higher-quality development with AI tools, and entirely new AI-native games that reinvent gameplay itself.
- He argues players will accept AI companions and hyper-personalization because games like Halo, The Last of Us, Baldur's Gate 3 and Dungeons & Dragons already show those behaviors.
- Lai is skeptical that large IP-driven incumbents will build the most innovative Wave Two games, citing their risk-averse sequel model and the precedent of mobile, where new companies won.
- On business models, he says inference costs would undermine both free-to-play and premium pricing, so subscriptions and in-game virtual currency tied to inference may become common.
- His advice to builders is to reimagine a favorite genre around generative AI in the core gameplay loop, prototype it with friends, and show it to a16z.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasAI in games is arriving in two waves
Wave One uses AI tools to build existing games faster and better, while Wave Two creates new games only possible with AI. Lai considers the second wave more exciting.
Wave One is already mainstream
Lai cites a survey of 230 game studios in which 87% already use generative AI tools, and most rated the impact as transformational.
Good alone, great with AI, best with friends
Lai envisions an AI companion that plays alongside or against you and learns your preferences, making games better than solo play without replacing human friends.
Player demand for AI companions and personalization already exists
Cortana in Halo, Ellie in The Last of Us, detailed character builders, skin sales and Dungeons & Dragons show players embrace these behaviors, so LLMs just make them easier.
Startups are likelier to build breakthrough AI-native games
Incumbents rely on IP and low-risk sequels and may dismiss early AI games as silly, as they did with mobile titles like Candy Crush, which expanded the market with new players.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesWhile much of the early discourse on generative AI in games is focused on how AI can make game creators more efficient, I actually believe the largest opportunity long term is in leveraging AI to reinvent the nature of the games themselves.
— Jonathan Lai
We're not inventing entirely new consumer behavior. We're just making it easier for players to do what they already want.
— Jonathan Lai
The next Call of Duty title is like comfort food. You know exactly what you're going to get, and that's why you enjoy it.
— Jonathan Lai
With each new paradigm of games, a new set of players also comes into the ecosystem.
— Jonathan Lai
Take your favorite game genre, whether it's a sports game, like an MMO, even chess or poker or Dungeons & Dragons, and try to reimagine on first principles what it could look like if you were to introduce generative AI into the core gameplay loop.
— Jonathan Lai
High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.
