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a16za16z Podcast | Apple and Google Won the Mobile OS War, But a New War Has Already Begun
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At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Mobile OS War Is Over; Battle Moves Atop iOS and Android
- Benedict Evans says the mobile OS war is effectively over, with iOS and Android as the two substantial ecosystems and challengers like Windows Phone and Firefox only skirmishing at the low end.
- He argues the PC-era winner-takes-all analogy is misleading because phones are bought by individuals on experience and design, and retailers and banks will keep building iOS apps because of the value of iPhone customers.
- Evans explains that Apple and Google won by wanting different things: Apple sells excellent hardware, while Google wants reach for its machine-learning-driven services, so they are not in a one-to-one fight.
- He says the new war is over what happens on top of the platforms, including how apps are discovered and what 'app' and 'installed' will mean, with Facebook, WhatsApp, Line and WeChat competing to be engagement platforms.
- Evans argues smartphones are the dominant computing platform, far larger than PCs, and that startups can now reach 100 million users with about 10 people and far less capital than in the first internet bubble.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasThe mobile OS war is effectively over
Evans says iOS and Android are the two substantial ecosystems, with Apple heading toward 700 to 900 million devices and Android toward two to three billion, while forked Android efforts barely matter.
The PC winner-takes-all analogy doesn't apply
PCs were bought in bulk by corporations on price, whereas phones are bought by individuals on feel and design, and Apple will reach hundreds of millions of users before any network effects could squeeze it out.
Averages hide the value of Android's best users
Android's average spend is about half that of iOS because it has all kinds of customers, including cheap-phone buyers, but Evans says a sizable group of Android users are still worth having.
Apple and Google won by wanting different things
Apple builds the best boxes, while Google is a machine learning engine that wants reach for search, maps and advertising, so each succeeds as long as its own product stays good.
Apple is moving down the stack while Google moves up
Apple does hardware-dependent things like AirDrop, iBeacon and the M7 motion processor, while Google puts innovation in the cloud through Play services, Now, Maps and Plus.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesAnd now you'll have raised one million dollars, and you'll have 10 people, and you'll have 100 million users.
— Benedict Evans
Apple is moving down the stack, and Google's moving up the stack, both of them, of course, into their comfort zone, into a place where it's hard for the other to follow them.
— Benedict Evans
Amazon isn't a books company.
— Benedict Evans
It's like thinking a PC is a toy, and then real men need mainframes, for God's sake.
— Benedict Evans
Google is not in a one-to-one fight to the death with Apple. You could argue it's in a one-to-one fight to the death with Facebook.
— Benedict Evans
High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.
