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a16za16z Podcast | Ben and Marc Explain (Practically) Everything – Part 1
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At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Andreessen and Horowitz on Software Eating the World, Five Years In
- Marc Andreessen argues that smartphones will reach nearly everyone on the planet by the end of the decade, creating a connected market unlike any before and making the next five years prime time to reinvent every industry with software.
- Andreessen names healthcare, education and ultimately government as the next big targets, saying technology must break Baumol's cost disease in these sectors or current delivery methods will bankrupt the country.
- Ben Horowitz says the real challenge of software displacing jobs is the transition between jobs, and that technology-driven cost cuts in education and healthcare would free money for a stronger social safety net.
- Andreessen expects every physical object to become smart over ten to twenty years, arguing that such shifts arrive through long periods of experimentation, as with PCs, smartphones and the web.
- Horowitz and Andreessen describe a venture industry that has become more transparent and split into seed and large-scale investing, where startups are cheaper to start but more expensive to grow, and where entrepreneurship is spreading globally.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasSmartphones make the market for technology effectively universal
Andreessen predicts five to seven billion smartphones by the end of the decade, including a thirty-five dollar phone in India and Pakistan, creating an unprecedented connected population.
Healthcare and education are the biggest remaining targets
Andreessen says these sectors suffer from Baumol's cost disease, and applying technology could cut costs and open access without bankrupting governments.
The job problem is about transition, not total numbers
Horowitz notes that jobs like delivering ice or making vinyl records disappeared, so the focus should be on helping people move to new work without losing dignity.
Today's tech market is far larger than in the Netscape era
Andreessen recalls that 90% browser share once meant under 50 million users, whereas now more than two billion people are online and companies like Google and Facebook have over a billion users.
Breakthrough products emerge from many experiments over long periods
Andreessen cites PCs, smartphones dating to 1997, and the internet predating the browser by thirty years to argue that smart objects will arrive gradually through trial and error.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesWhy now? Because you can. Because it's possible. Because it can be done.
— Marc Andreessen
Cheaper to start, more expensive to grow.
— Marc Andreessen
The only way to do that is to apply technology. Otherwise, you do bankrupt the planet trying to do it with the current techniques.
— Marc Andreessen
Things in the sunlight, that's when everybody behaves and is at their best.
— Ben Horowitz
Silicon Valley is a network effect, and if you're competing with a Silicon Valley company without the level of engineering talent, without the level of executive talent, it's still rather hard.
— Ben Horowitz
High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.