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a16z Podcast | Technological Trends, Capital, and Internet 'Disruption'

with Fred Wilson (@fredwilson) and Chris Dixon (@cdixon) There's all sorts of interesting tech trends happening right now, including AI, VR/AR, self-driving cars and drones (as well as interesting stuff happening in verticals like healthcare and finance) -- and there's a lot also happening in seemingly more "mature" tech revolutions, such as mobile and cloud. But where are we now, really, with these shifts... and how does that inform how we think about the next couple decades? And does a framework like Carlota Perez's -- as outlined in Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages and summarized by venture capitalist and longtime internet investor Fred Wilson (of Union Square Ventures) -- fully apply when it comes to software? Because, argues Chris Dixon (general partner on a16z crypto), software "has so much more plasticity, ability to adapt, ability to evolve" that unlike hardware, "the core itself will also dramatically change... not just the apps around it". The total economic value that will be unlocked with the software revolution, observes Wilson, should be orders of magnitude bigger than what we saw with manufacturing for sure. But just how much internet innovation is actually powering true disruption (i.e., is more than just a sustaining innovation, to use Clayton Christensen's terminology)? How do new business models change everything? Dixon and Wilson consider all this and more in this hallway-style episode of the a16z Podcast, where we recorded the two having a think-aloud conversation about everything from the history of the internet and startups, the evolution of capital and infrastructure, to the advent of crypto. How do they they both define "decentralized", what do they think of dApps, and where do NFTs and "crypto goods" come in?? One thing's for sure: It's the most interesting time they've both ever seen in over 30 years of internet work, life, and play. Please note that the a16z crypto fund is a separate legal entity managed by CNK Capital Management, L.L.C. (“CNK”), a registered investor advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. a16z crypto is legally independent and operationally separate from the Andreessen Horowitz family of fund and AH Capital Management, L.L.C. (“AHCM”). In any case, the content provided here is for informational purposes only, and does NOT constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase any investment solution or a recommendation to buy or sell a security; nor it is to be taken as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. In fact, none of the information in this or other content on a16zcrypto.com should be relied on in any manner as advice. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax and other related matters concerning any investment.

Chris DixonhostFred Wilsonguest
Jan 2, 201954mWatch on YouTube ↗

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At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Fred Wilson and Chris Dixon on Disruption, Capital, and Crypto's Future

  1. Wilson uses Carlota Perez's framework to suggest the internet revolution may have decades left, while Dixon argues software's flexibility means even its core protocols can change, unlike cars or TV.
  2. Both agree that big tech incumbents weren't disrupted by mobile and probably won't be by AI, so much recent innovation is sustaining in Christensen's sense rather than disruptive.
  3. The conversation covers cloud infrastructure as a still-unfolding story, with AWS, Google and Microsoft expected to form a three-player market, and enterprise and vertical SaaS where much current startup value is being created.
  4. They see crypto as a new capital market and a new business model in which users can also be investors, and they argue that ad-based networks inevitably turn on their developer ecosystems as growth slows.
  5. They say crypto-native ideas such as non-fungible tokens, staking and autonomous organizations matter more than moving existing assets onto blockchains, but the technology still awaits its broadband or iPhone moment.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Software may differ from past technology revolutions

Dixon argues that unlike cars or TV, software has so much plasticity that the core itself, not just the apps around it, can keep evolving. Wilson adds that putting everything into software could unlock value orders of magnitude larger than manufacturing.

Much current innovation is sustaining, not disruptive

Wilson notes the top mobile apps resembled the pre-iPhone top websites, and both expect AI to reinforce incumbents because of their data. Wilson sees crypto as the main exception because it changes the business model itself.

Changing the business model is what creates real disruption

Wilson says Google made advertising the model for applications, turning incumbents' strengths into weaknesses. He views tokens as a similarly orthogonal shift from ads and subscriptions.

Ad-based networks tend to turn against their ecosystems

Dixon describes a network life cycle where platforms court developers early but fight them once growth slows, as with Twitter and its third-party clients. Wilson says that as a Twitter board member he wanted an open platform but the attention-based model prevented it.

Tokens let users participate in the value they create

Wilson argues it is wrong that people who make products like Facebook or Twitter get no share of the value, and that crypto combines using and investing. Dixon adds that this aligns users, developers and protocol builders.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

It's just not right that the people who make the product have no participation in the value appreciation.

— Fred Wilson

in tech, actually the hot dog and the hot dog bun are the ones that have the most vicious fights.

— Chris Dixon

whenever you have a modifier on the thing, you know that people think it's subordinate.

— Chris Dixon

When the pie's growing, no one's fighting over a piece of the pie. When the pie stops growing, people start fighting over the piece of the pie.

— Fred Wilson

It's just always harder to envision the jobs that are created than it is to envision the jobs that are destroyed.

— Chris Dixon

Carlota Perez and technological revolutionsSustaining versus disruptive innovationCloud infrastructure and enterprise SaaSChanging venture and capital marketsToken business models and network alignmentNon-fungible tokens and digital scarcityCrypto scalability and decentralization

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