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a16za16z Podcast | Technological Trends, Capital, and Internet 'Disruption'
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At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Fred Wilson and Chris Dixon on Disruption, Capital, and Crypto's Future
- Wilson uses Carlota Perez's framework to suggest the internet revolution may have decades left, while Dixon argues software's flexibility means even its core protocols can change, unlike cars or TV.
- Both agree that big tech incumbents weren't disrupted by mobile and probably won't be by AI, so much recent innovation is sustaining in Christensen's sense rather than disruptive.
- The conversation covers cloud infrastructure as a still-unfolding story, with AWS, Google and Microsoft expected to form a three-player market, and enterprise and vertical SaaS where much current startup value is being created.
- They see crypto as a new capital market and a new business model in which users can also be investors, and they argue that ad-based networks inevitably turn on their developer ecosystems as growth slows.
- They say crypto-native ideas such as non-fungible tokens, staking and autonomous organizations matter more than moving existing assets onto blockchains, but the technology still awaits its broadband or iPhone moment.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasSoftware may differ from past technology revolutions
Dixon argues that unlike cars or TV, software has so much plasticity that the core itself, not just the apps around it, can keep evolving. Wilson adds that putting everything into software could unlock value orders of magnitude larger than manufacturing.
Much current innovation is sustaining, not disruptive
Wilson notes the top mobile apps resembled the pre-iPhone top websites, and both expect AI to reinforce incumbents because of their data. Wilson sees crypto as the main exception because it changes the business model itself.
Changing the business model is what creates real disruption
Wilson says Google made advertising the model for applications, turning incumbents' strengths into weaknesses. He views tokens as a similarly orthogonal shift from ads and subscriptions.
Ad-based networks tend to turn against their ecosystems
Dixon describes a network life cycle where platforms court developers early but fight them once growth slows, as with Twitter and its third-party clients. Wilson says that as a Twitter board member he wanted an open platform but the attention-based model prevented it.
Tokens let users participate in the value they create
Wilson argues it is wrong that people who make products like Facebook or Twitter get no share of the value, and that crypto combines using and investing. Dixon adds that this aligns users, developers and protocol builders.
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesIt's just not right that the people who make the product have no participation in the value appreciation.
— Fred Wilson
in tech, actually the hot dog and the hot dog bun are the ones that have the most vicious fights.
— Chris Dixon
whenever you have a modifier on the thing, you know that people think it's subordinate.
— Chris Dixon
When the pie's growing, no one's fighting over a piece of the pie. When the pie stops growing, people start fighting over the piece of the pie.
— Fred Wilson
It's just always harder to envision the jobs that are created than it is to envision the jobs that are destroyed.
— Chris Dixon
High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.