Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs

ℹ️ EPISODE INFO

Released

August 20, 2025

Duration

1h 12m

Channel

a16z

Watch on YouTube

▶ Open ↗

📝 EPISODE DESCRIPTION

Do tariffs help rebuild American manufacturing or hold it back? In this episode, American Compass founder and chief economist Oren Cass sits down with commentator and author Noah Smith and a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg for a lively debate on the future of U.S. industry. They discuss the case for tariff-driven re-industrialization versus free-market approaches, the role of allies in trade policy, and what the numbers really show about manufacturing jobs, investment, and output. Along the way, they challenge each other’s assumptions and explore what it would take to actually bring more production back to American soil. Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction & Framing the Free Trade Debate 0:50 American Compass & Economic Philosophy 3:50 The Limits of Free Markets and Policy Implications 5:04 Rethinking Comparative Advantage & Modern Trade 9:08 Tariffs: American Tradition vs. Chinese Strategy 10:25 Evaluating the Impact of Trump’s Tariffs 12:15 Short-Term Pain vs. Long-Term Gain in Manufacturing 15:41 Data, Indicators, and the State of US Manufacturing 24:21 The Role of Industrial Policy and Workforce Development 45:24 Trade Deficits and Scale 52:23 Global Competition 1:02:40 Negotiating with Allies and the Limits of Tariff Threats Resources: Find Oren on X: https://https://x.com/oren_cass American Compass: https://americancompass.org/ Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

🎤 SPEAKERS

• Oren Cass

  guest

  Founder of American Compass (founded in 2020) and advocate of industrial policy and tariffs aimed at strengthening domestic industry and communities.

• Noah Smith

  guest

  Economics writer/commentator who analyzes trade and industrial policy using economic theory and empirical indicators.

• Erik Torenberg

  host

  Host/moderator who introduces guests and facilitates the debate on a16z.

🧾 EPISODE SUMMARY

In this episode of a16z, featuring Oren Cass and Noah Smith, Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs explores tariffs vs. free trade: reshoring bets, scale economics, and evidence clash Oren Cass argues that “free trade” with a non-market economy like China can undermine free markets, and that tariffs can realign incentives toward domestic investment and industrial capacity over a multi-year horizon.

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