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a16zThe Electrification of Everything: From Sky to Sea
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CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 3:08
Electric Cars' Rise, Fall and Comeback
Steph Smith traces electric cars from the 1830s to a third of the market in 1900 and back to a sliver a century later. She introduces the three guests building electric planes, boats and buses, and the two Fifth Avenue photos showing how fast technology can change.
- •Electric cars made up about a third of cars on the road in 1900
- •Electrification is now spreading beyond cars to planes, boats, school buses and cargo ships
- •Guests are Gregory Davis (Eviation), Mitch Lee (Arc Boats) and Duncan McIntyre (Highland Electric Fleets)
- •Fifth Avenue photos from 1900 and 1913 show how quickly the horse-to-car shift happened
- 3:08 – 5:18
Why Aviation Needs Electrification
Gregory Davis explains how he got into sustainable aviation. He cites aviation's current share of CO2 emissions, the projected growth, and the cost, noise and carbon benefits of electric flight.
- •Aviation is about 3% of world CO2 emissions today
- •Industry projections cited put it as high as 50% by 2050
- •Aerospace hasn't seen the same technology evolution as automotive
- •Electric aircraft promise lower operating cost, less noise and no carbon pollution
- 5:18 – 8:21
Electric School Buses and Municipal Fleets
Duncan McIntyre describes electrification as an all-around upgrade rather than only a climate play. He explains why Highland started with school buses and is expanding into trash hauling and other municipal fleets.
- •Many customers disengage if the pitch leads with climate change
- •Electric vehicles are cheaper to operate, fuel and maintain, and are quiet
- •Transportation is local and politically sensitive
- •Highland bundles capital, infrastructure and services so cities find it seamless and cheaper
- 8:21 – 11:33
Why Electric Boats Are a Better Boat
Mitch Lee explains his personal path into boating and why gas boats are painful to own. He says the auto industry's R&D and battery supply chain made electric boats feasible now.
- •Gas boats are loud, unreliable and polluting in air, water and noise
- •The pain point of boat ownership is more visceral than that of gas cars
- •Boats go from point A to point A, which makes charging more tractable
- •Hundreds of billions of auto R&D dollars enabled what wasn't possible five years ago
- 11:33 – 16:06
What Carries Over from Cars and What Must Be Invented
The guests compare what they borrowed from the auto industry and what they had to build. Topics include powertrain efficiency, charging interoperability, and the very different power profiles of boats, buses and aircraft.
- •Duncan McIntyre says interoperability of chargers, vehicles and utilities was the biggest unexpected build
- •His Bethesda depot draws five megawatts, which he likens to five hospitals coming online
- •Mitch Lee says boats use more gallons per mile than a loaded semi and need high continuous power
- •Gregory Davis says cell advances carry over, but battery architecture is unique per application
- 16:06 – 19:08
Battery Lifecycles Across Industries
Davis, Lee and McIntyre contrast how each industry treats battery life. Aircraft batteries are replaced on a schedule, boats barely cycle their packs, and McIntyre suggests batteries could be reused in less demanding second applications.
- •Eviation designs batteries to be replaced every 3,000 cycles and upgraded at maintenance
- •Boating season is only 50 to 100 hours, so boats are the opposite of cycle-constrained
- •McIntyre suggests retired aviation batteries could serve less mission-critical uses
- •School buses sit idle about 91% of the hours in a year
- 19:08 – 24:48
Vehicle-to-Grid and Using Idle Assets
Steph Smith asks about using idle batteries to send power back. McIntyre says grid services are core to Highland's model, while Lee and Davis discuss home backup power, overnight charging and gentle aircraft charging cycles.
- •About half of Highland's projects back-flow power to the grid
- •In New England about a third of Highland's revenue comes from grid services
- •Boats have around 20 hours of downtime after a typical outing and could power a house
- •Davis says a 30-minute turnaround can recharge one hour of flight, a gentle cycle for batteries
- 24:48 – 26:33
Charging Infrastructure and Eviation's Business Model
Davis outlines Eviation's three-part business of aircraft sales, aftermarket support and charging solutions. He describes fixed and mobile charging, and the group jokes about a school-bus-powered concert.
- •Eviation sells aircraft, provides aftermarket services, and offers charging
- •Charging can be fixed at airports or mobile via a battery-bank truck called an eBowser
- •Highland is working on similar mobile power R&D
- •Highland will power a concert with school buses in the fall
- 26:33 – 33:41
Building a Multimodal Business and Revenue Models
Smith asks how each company thinks about layered business models. Lee focuses on better boats with software and home backup as add-ons, McIntyre on performance-based per-mile contracts, and Davis on an opening for charging infrastructure consultants.
- •Arc designs out maintenance burdens, such as a closed-loop cooling system
- •Arc wants to offer navigation software free and compete with home backup generators
- •Highland charges per mile and doesn't get paid if charging fails
- •McIntyre sees higher asset utilization, including through autonomy, as a big opportunity
- •Davis says airport charging layout and capacity advice is an unmet business opportunity
- 33:41 – 39:10
Market Fit and Opportunities for Entrepreneurs
The guests discuss where the gaps lie. Davis explains how short flights match electric range, Lee describes a gauge-less gas-boat experience versus precise electric range, and Lee outlines three tiers of opportunity for entrepreneurs.
- •Half of flights worldwide are under 500 miles and 30% are 250 miles or less
- •Gas boats have unreliable fuel gauges and running out of fuel is common
- •Lee's three opportunity tiers are products, supply chain, and second-order effects
- •Second-order ideas include new charging infrastructure and powered trailers
- 39:10 – 46:13
Standards, Supply Chains and Shared Components
McIntyre argues that slow industry standards and strained supply chains are major pain points, citing utility integrations and long-lead equipment. Davis and Lee discuss supply chain outlook, vertical integration and shareable components like DC-DC converters and high-voltage subsystems.
- •Highland integrated with 15 to 20 utilities in 12 months, each one different
- •Completed vehicles sit waiting on missing parts, and switchgear is bought 18 months ahead
- •Davis expects new technologies to gain attention from aerospace suppliers with no incumbent programs on the docket
- •Lee suggests atomic components like DC-DC converters and connectors work across applications
- •Davis points to 800-volt subsystems to reduce the need for converters
- 46:13 – 57:30
Make, Buy or Borrow and Where Moats Come From
Smith asks what each company builds in-house versus buys and where differentiation will come from. The guests cite proprietary battery packs, certification-compliant design, scale and access to capital, and real order books.
- •Arc integrates battery packs as a core moat, which took two years despite top talent
- •Eviation builds a nine-passenger aircraft certifiable under existing standards
- •Highland's moat is scale, cheaper capital, and bundled services and local operators
- •Davis says a $3.5 billion pre-order mark and a leasing deal signal real market demand
- •Smith says the three companies were chosen because they have booked orders
- 57:30 – 1:04:32
The Electric Future: Cleaner, Quieter and More Connected
The guests describe second- and third-order effects of widespread electrification: quiet clean waterways, better urban air quality and grid use, and convenient, cheaper regional flights. Smith closes with an imagined perfect electric day and thanks the guests.
- •Lee says the next generation of boaters won't be allowed gas boats on lakes and rivers, leaving quiet marinas with clean water
- •Davis cites poor urban air quality from tailpipes and high pediatric asthma in some California areas
- •Electrified fleets can raise grid utilization and integrate more renewables
- •Davis expects short regional flights to link small rural communities and run quietly and cheaply
- •Davis predicts everyone will fly electric regularly within 10 to 15 years
