All-In Podcast2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 5:38
Introductions, Ski Trip Banter, and Polymarket Partnership
The hosts welcome guest investor Gavin Baker, joke about his firm size and recent ski trip with the ‘besties,’ and introduce their partnership with prediction market Polymarket. They explain that select ‘super predictions’ from the episode will be turned into tradable markets, mainly for non-U.S. users.
- 5:38 – 9:26
Biggest Political Winners of 2025: Fiscal Conservatives and a Younger Class
The panel revisits last year’s political calls and lays out who they think will win politically in 2025. Themes include fiscal discipline, centrist MAGA realignment, and a generational shift as younger leaders enter power.
- 9:26 – 17:34
Biggest Political Losers: Putin, Neocons, Progressivism, and Extremes
Attention shifts to who will lose in politics: Putin, pro-war neoconservatives, and progressive identity politics. They also criticize small extreme factions on both left and right and discuss the changing Republican donor ecosystem.
- 17:34 – 27:50
Biggest Business Winners: Robots, AI Full-Stack, and Stablecoins
The crew names their biggest anticipated business winners, converging on robotics and AI while diverging on specific vehicles like stablecoins and full-stack compute. They highlight how capital and infrastructure advantages will shape competition.
- 27:50 – 32:43
AI Platforms, Tesla/Google, and Stablecoins vs. U.S. Dollar Hegemony
They delve into how AI and payment infrastructure reshape business winners, with Jason championing Google’s Gemini Deep Research and xAI’s Colossus buildout, while Gavin warns of risks to U.S. monetary advantage if stablecoins become a reserve currency.
- 32:43 – 46:54
Biggest Business Losers: Government Vendors, Legacy Defense, Mag 7 Concentration, OpenAI Risk
Predictions turn to business losers: government-heavy service providers, old-line defense and consulting, index-heavy mega-cap tech, and OpenAI’s valuation. The segment surfaces both business-model fragility and regulatory/political headwinds.
- 46:54 – 57:04
Biggest Deals of 2025: Auto Megamergers, Robotics Buildout, Intel and AI Lab M&A, Waymo
The conversation moves to M&A and transformative deals, from auto consolidation and hardware buildout to AI lab acquisitions and potential ride-hail–autonomy marriages. They see pent-up deal flow returning after regulatory gridlock.
- 57:04 – 1:12:59
Contrarian Beliefs: Bank Crisis, 5%+ GDP, Rising Socialism, and OpenAI Collapse
This segment is devoted to ‘most contrarian beliefs,’ surfacing tail risks and non-consensus macro views: a potential U.S. bank crisis, a productivity-driven growth boom, a resurgence of socialism, and Jason’s repeated prediction that OpenAI loses its lead.
- 1:12:59 – 1:22:56
Best and Worst Performing Assets: HBM, CDS, Chinese Tech, Mag 7, Enterprise SaaS
The group makes concrete asset-class calls. They highlight memory and China tech on the long side versus enterprise software, cost-plus contractors, real estate, and legacy autos on the short side, while debating index concentration risks.
- 1:22:56 – 1:30:19
Most Anticipated Trends: AI Acceleration, Nuclear Buildout, and Exit/DPI Boom
They outline big structural trends they’re watching: rapid AI capability scaling, a nuclear renaissance to feed compute, and a resurgence in M&A/IPOs as regulatory pressure eases. Jason demos Google’s Gemini Deep Research as an example of AI’s new capabilities.
- 1:30:19 – 1:38:59
Media, Declassification, and AI-Native Entertainment
The hosts pivot to media they’re excited about in 2025, from prestige TV and AI-native games to the potential ‘content bomb’ of government declassification under Trump. They also revisit last year’s media predictions.
- 1:38:59 – 1:43:03
Polymarket Super Predictions: Immigration, National Debt, Mag 8, and Cloud Wars
The group designs specific Polymarket questions to track their boldest predictions, focusing on immigration, national debt, index concentration, and cloud provider growth. They debate appropriate thresholds that would attract two-sided betting.
- 1:43:03 – 1:55:33
Bonus: UFOs, Drones, Pyramids, and Simulation Talk
In a long, speculative coda, Gavin raises UFOs and recent drone sightings, prompting a wide-ranging discussion about UAPs, historical accounts of extraterrestrial materials, Arthur C. Clarke’s vision of advanced civilizations, and whether the government is hiding proof of alien life.
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