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2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!

(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker and recap ski week! (5:38) Biggest Political Winner (9:26) Biggest Political Loser (17:34) Biggest Business Winner (32:43) Biggest Business Loser (46:54) Biggest Business Deal (57:04) Most Contrarian Belief (1:12:59) Best Performing Asset (1:22:56) Worst Performing Asset (1:30:19) Most Anticipated Trend (1:38:59) Most Anticipated Media (1:43:03) Super Predictions (1:46:50) Bonus: Drones, UFOs, and more Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow Gavin Baker: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitree-go2 https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitree-g1 https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/state-of-crypto-report-2024 https://x.com/chamath/status/1873144394100187263 https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-become-a-for-profit-business-before-april-2025 #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid FriedberghostGavin Bakerguest
Jan 4, 20251h 55mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:00 – 5:38

    The Besties welcome Gavin Baker and recap ski week!

    1. JC

      Welcome back to the All-In Podcast, everybody. I'm your host, Jason Calacanis. I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the projects I'm working on throughout the show to annoy my co-hosts and continue to grift, but it is 2025-

    2. CP

      (laughs)

    3. DF

      (laughs)

    4. JC

      ... and we are doing our Bestie Awards. It's gonna be amazing today. We've got so much to do today. With us again, for the second time, a truly amazing bestie, Gavin Baker from Atrides Capital. Am I correct? Is it Atrides Capital? You put a capital at the end?

    5. GB

      Atrides Management. Atrides Management.

    6. JC

      Oh, Atrides Management. Uh, okay, and, uh-

    7. CP

      Just call it House of Treaties.

    8. JC

      Oh. (laughs) Nope, let's not get him in trouble. I pay.

    9. GB

      (laughs)

    10. JC

      Gavin, welcome back to the program. Let us know, um, just briefly, what, what does Atrides do?

    11. GB

      Thanks for having me here, Jason, Chamath, and Dave. Uh, Atrides, we're a, we're a crossover firm. We invest publicly and privately in consumer and tech, and we go from series A to mega cap.

    12. JC

      Got it. Okay, so you are a capital allocator. You place bets on technology, on the most important new companies in the world. We'll get into that. And this is our prediction show. Uh, we did our Bestie Awards.

    13. DF

      How big is your firm, Gavin?

    14. GB

      Uh, it's rough-

    15. JC

      Whoa, whoa. You just met the guy, Friedberg.

    16. DF

      (laughs)

    17. JC

      You don't just ask him how big his firm is.

    18. DF

      The audience wants to know.

    19. JC

      Okay.

    20. DF

      Is this guy a player? Like, what's the deal?

    21. JC

      Tell us.

    22. GB

      Rough-

    23. DF

      You know.

    24. GB

      Roughly $4 billion. (upbeat music)

    25. JC

      Okay.

    26. DF

      There you go.

    27. JC

      All right, so that's about a half an inch bigger than Chamath. He's really very nice.

    28. DF

      (laughs)

    29. DS

      Uh.

    30. JC

      Not that he's a size queen or anything.

  2. 5:38 – 9:26

    Biggest Political Winner

    1. JC

      We're gonna do our 2025 prediction for biggest political winner. Now, last year... Well, yeah, I think we, we got it kinda wrong. Friedberg, you said independent third party in the US. And we did see some of that with, you know, the breakout of Robert Kennedy maybe. Chamath, you said independent centrists. We didn't get there with that one. And I said dark horse presidential candidates. Maybe I get a quarter point credit there with-

    2. CP

      Wait, what do you... Wait, hold on. What do you mean we didn't get there? Independent centrists won the election for MAGA.

    3. JC

      Independent centrist won the election? Really? That's what you believe?

    4. CP

      Yeah.

    5. JC

      Okay. I didn't think that it was the independents, but okay.

    6. CP

      I think independent centrists swung the election for Biden in 2020 and then I think they swung the election for Trump in 2024.

    7. JC

      Huh. Is that statistically correct, you think, Freeburg? Do you, you, you buy that, independent centrists did the election or...

    8. NA

      Gavin, what do you think?

    9. GB

      I think it's right. Like, I think a lot of... There were a lot of people, not just centrists, but a lot of people who had been lifelong Democratic voters who voted for Trump. So, I do think Trump won the centrists.

    10. JC

      Mm-hmm.

    11. GB

      I mean, Trump, Trump won everything, essentially.

    12. JC

      Yeah. Okay. Chamath, who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025?

    13. CP

      My biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives. I think that we are going to test a very important concept in 2025, and I hope it works, which is that of austerity. And the reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left after austerity is to cut entitlements. And I think that, in doing this, we are going to figure out how much waste, fraud, and abuse exists in the United States federal government.

    14. JC

      Hmm.

    15. CP

      I think that that's going to spill over to a lot of state elections and I think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending will have their day in 2025.

    16. JC

      Okay. Fiscal conservatives from Chamath. Freeburg, who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025?

    17. DF

      I also took a, a class-based approach. I chose young candidates. So Trump's-

    18. JC

      Ah.

    19. DF

      ... cabinet picks have an average age of 40 to 45 years old compared to the Biden cabinet, where the average age is a little over 59, almost 60 years old. And I do think that this marks the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger. So, I think that this is something we should expect as candidates start to emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025. We'll start to see younger, new names start to pop up that deliver resonant messages and aren't part of kind of the old guard of, you know, the aging political class. So, I think that's a trend that's kind of underway now.

    20. JC

      Excellent. Young candidates. So we've got fiscal conservatives, young candidates. Gavin, what have you got for the 2025 prediction for biggest political winner?

    21. GB

      I would say Trump and centrism.

    22. JC

      For my choice for 2025's biggest political winner, I went with something similar to you, Freeburg. I said Gen X and the elder Millennials. If you look at the notable Gen X appointments, you got Elon with Doge, you got Sachs obviously, Marco Rubio. My God, it just goes down. And then if you look at the elder Millennials, JD Vance, Vivek, Tulsi, just a lot of young people. And this is going to be absolutely fantastic, I think, because they're going to start thinking not just about themselves, uh, as the Boomers are doing with Social Security, taxes, real estate, all the different issues that they tend to pick for themselves, they're gonna start thinking about maybe their own kids and themselves. So yeah, it's obviously a sea change is underway. So, there you have it, folks, for our predictions for political winner.

  3. 9:26 – 17:34

    Biggest Political Loser

    1. JC

      Let's go with political loser here. Prediction for political loser, we'll start off with you, Gavin. We'll, we'll do this a little, uh, round robin here. We'll snake it around. Gavin, what do you think? Who'll be the biggest political loser of 2025?

    2. GB

      I think Putin. I think Putin is going to-

    3. JC

      Mm.

    4. GB

      ... lose bigly. Um, so if you are Xi Jinping, you know, Xi Jin... Russia is a client state of China at this point and if you're Xi Jinping, what is happening is now a disaster for you because Europe is starting to re-arm, and which is... which will only accelerate this year. That will allow America to take resources out of Europe and put them in, uh, Japan and South Korea and all over the Pacific and that makes it a lot harder for you to do what you most want to do, which is reunify, um, China and Taiwan or invade Taiwan, uh, let's, let's call it what it is. And I just think Xi is going to begin decoupling from Putin. If you're Trump, you wanna show that you're independent, that you're not, um, in thrall to Putin in any way. So, I think Trump is gonna be a lot tougher on Putin than people think and I think he's gonna get a very, very, uh, a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine and, you know, you've lost half a million people and for what?

    5. JC

      For what exactly, yeah. And it's a thousand... over a thousand days into this. Nobody from the West ha-... you know, in, in, in, uh, NATO or America, no, no soldiers have lost their lives from our side. We've just given them weapons and so it's a humiliating defeat so far for Putin. I agree with you. Freeburg, your prediction for the biggest political loser of 2025. Freeburg's prediction, come on.

    6. DF

      I, I'm gonna predict the pro-war Neocons who are gonna go head to head with the JD Vance and Elons and others-

    7. JC

      Hmm.

    8. DF

      ... of the world and I think that they're gonna lose and I think that there's gonna be this kind of big crack in the establishment of this, this Neocon movement that's been, uh, very pro-conflict around the world. And we've heard it in the speeches and in the commentary from JD and others and I think this is gonna be the year that it's all gonna kinda come to a head. I think they're gonna end up on the losing side.

    9. JC

      Hey, you know what?

    10. GB

      Can I-

    11. JC

      Gavin.

    12. GB

      Can I take the other side just, just a little bit? So I think you're-

    13. JC

      Yeah, that's why you're here.

    14. GB

      I think... Yeah, yeah. I think it's right in reality, but I think... You know, Trump said something very interesting about John Bolton. He said the guy was absolutely crazy, but it was awesome having him in the room when you were negotiating deals-

    15. DF

      Right.

    16. GB

      ... 'cause people looked at this guy looking angry, red in the face, so excited to hit the nuclear button, so excited to go to war-

    17. DF

      (laughs)

    18. GB

      ... and you ended up with much better deals.

    19. DF

      Right.

    20. GB

      So I think you're gonna see probably a lot more bellicosity from the Trump Administration than anyone expects, and that's just to get a good deal for, you know, between Russia and Ukraine, and then it's to get China to kind of de-couple from Russia. So I think the, um... In reality, I think you're right, David, but I think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're saying before-

    21. DF

      Right.

    22. GB

      ... you end up being repped.

    23. DF

      And we already see it with Canada, with NATO, with Taiwan. There's a lot, you know, "We're gonna do this or this." And the tariffs, o- obviously, there's just a lot of very aggressive posturing leading up to the negotiations that are hopefully gonna get the US good deals. We'll see.

    24. JC

      Chamath, you have a prediction for your 2025 biggest political loser. Predictions, hard to do.

    25. CP

      The, uh, biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progressivism. So November of last year, right after the election, I flew to London and went up to Oxford, and I spoke at the Oxford Union, and-

    26. JC

      Mm-hmm, very impressive.

    27. CP

      My speech was a full-throated defense of MAGA, but it was mostly an explanation of MAGA. And it was sort of the antidote to progressive instincts that had been riddling the western G8 countries and was starting to basically come undone. And when you look at what's about to happen in 2025, in Canada, Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Peter Poilievre. In Germany, AFD looks like they will win. In France, if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election, more than likely, Marine Le Pen is going to win. And then in the UK, where you see this unfolding child rape scandal, where allegedly, upwards of hundreds of thousands of young girls over the course of 20-plus years were being raped by organizations of Pakistani Muslim men, who were then not prosecuted for fears of stoking Islamophobia, as it turns out, by the current prime minister, Keir Starmer. And if all of that comes to pass in the UK, I think you're gonna see the Labour government fall, and I think you're gonna see Nigel Farage win. So what do all of these countries look like by the end of '25? It's very much a repudiation of this class-based identity politics, and I think that has enormous ripple effects all throughout the world. And so I think the biggest political loser for 2025, I think, stands to be "progressivism," quote, unquote, what they-

    28. JC

      Okay.

    29. CP

      ... what we've labeled progressivism.

    30. JC

      I, I took something very similar. I said the racist vocal minority of each one of these parties. And there's a little bit of this on either side. You have DEI on one side, and then you just have outright racism on the other side, and it's probably 5% of MAGA and 5% on the left. And just to recap last year's political predictions, for 2024, our predictions for political loser was, I said, Netanyahu, Freeberg, you said Ukraine, and Chamath, you said the Koch family, the GOP donors.

  4. 17:34 – 32:43

    Biggest Business Winner

    1. GB

      That's all.

    2. JC

      All right. Let's do our 2025 predictions for biggest business winner. Freeberg, why don't you start us off? Biggest business winner for 2025, what's your prediction?

    3. DF

      So I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is gonna make 2025 the year of autonomous hardware or robotics.

    4. JC

      Mm.

    5. DF

      I- if 2024 was the year of kind of compute build-out and the rollout of AI systems and software, I think 2025 will be the year of the robot. You know, there's a company I... We just placed an order today actually out of China called Unitree.Gavin, have you looked at this company?

    6. GB

      Yeah. It's pretty wild actually.

    7. DF

      It's an incredible business, incredible product. So their G02 robot is $1,600, has an API. Here it is. You can run a payload on it. It's got LiDAR on it. It's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it. This is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back-

    8. JC

      Yeah.

    9. DF

      ... and it was basically a new kind of field soldier. It's an autonomous field soldier. But really you can use it in scientific applications. We're looking at using them in our, uh, on our f- on our test farms where it can wander the farm and take images and report data back to us. And it's such a low cost at, like, less than $3,000. You can do some incredible things with it. So this business just raised a couple hundred million dollars last month from mostly Chinese investors. It's a Chinese company, and I think that there's gonna be, you know, other similar type businesses. You know, it kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined. I think this is gonna be the year where we're all gonna look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like, "Oh my God. I can't believe this is here." Um, so this could be the year of the rollout.

    10. JC

      What a good choice. That's such a great strong choice for the biggest winner, and, uh, I think the quote you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once? (laughs) That's how these technology changes. And man, I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security.

    11. DF

      Sorry, Nick, pull up the... You guys gotta watch this if you haven't seen it. Nick, find the video of the G02 with the wheels on it, um, managing terrain.

    12. JC

      Oh, yes.

    13. DF

      And, and everyone thought this was a BS video, that it was like CGI, wasn't real, it was AI generated, but, like, this thing is just incredible. Here it is. This is a real video of this thing.

    14. JC

      Yeah.

    15. DF

      And it can learn-

    16. JC

      Google.

    17. DF

      ... from an LLM too, right? Like, a large- Yeah.

    18. JC

      ... language model could-

    19. DF

      Look at this thing.

    20. JC

      ... teach it how to do something. Yeah.

    21. DF

      Gavin, is this real? Like what's your sense on this?

    22. GB

      Yeah, it's absolutely real. Yeah.

    23. DF

      Yeah.

    24. GB

      I want to get the G1, which is their humanoid robot.

    25. DF

      Yeah. So pull up the humanoid. It's really cool.

    26. GB

      Yeah, $16,000.

    27. DF

      It's a little more expensive.

    28. GB

      Yeah, but-

    29. DF

      Yeah.

    30. JC

      I mean, $16,000 is the cost of a used Prius. Let's be honest, that's in spitting distance of being affordable for the middle class.

  5. 32:43 – 46:54

    Biggest Business Loser

    1. JC

      All right, now we're gonna move on to the 2025 biggest business loser predictions. In 2024, Chamath said, "Pro sports teams," because they hit peak valuations. That's looking like a pretty good prediction. Friedberg, you said, "Vertical SaaS companies because of AI disruption." That's another one that seems like a great prediction.

    2. GB

      (laughs)

    3. JC

      I said, "Smartphone manufacturers." Apple stock was up 30% in 2024, but I think we've all seen that these, uh, smartphones aren't advancing, and people are taking their times. The sales of those are down, services are up.

    4. GB

      I would take the other side on pro sports teams. It feels like-

    5. JC

      Oh, same way.

    6. GB

      ... that market is about to be institutionalized, and funds are gonna start buying pro sports teams.

    7. JC

      Okay.

    8. GB

      That ultimately, and ultimately capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individuals who've done it for n- to date. So I just think it's... The amount of money that can go after pro sports teams is about to, you know, 10X, 100X.

    9. CP

      No, I think, I think you're totally right. The, the reason I said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the time, and the NBA was the canary in the coal mine that there was a viewership problem in professional sports. And specifically in the NBA, the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or three-pointers. And the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch. At the same time, because of the, the fact that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises, the TV deal was so enormous that it creates no reliable rivalries anymore, because people will hopscotch teams almost every year because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene, quite honestly. And I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done.

    10. JC

      Mm.

    11. CP

      And I think if you, for example, take pharma ads outside of TV, so like, that pool shrinks. If you have less viewership, and so you can sell the remaining ads less effectively because there's just fewer of them and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again, then the dollar pool that the television networks and the streamers are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down. And the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you said, Gavin, meaning the non-trophy buyers. So like, you know, when I bought into the Warriors, I bought it purely as a trophy asset, and I was price insensitive. But I agree with you, that now that you have the PE firms on the cap tables of these sports franchises, those folks are all DCFs. Those folks are all Excel models. I don't think that they're buying things for emotion. I don't think they've grown up thinking, "I wanna own this thing," not using institutional LP dollars. So I just think that's why, that's why I said that in '24, so I just wanted to put it-

    12. JC

      On behalf of Phil Hellmuth and I, we appreciate you made that vanity investment for the number of times (laughs) we got to sit in your courtside seats. (laughs)

    13. CP

      Yeah, 'cause I never went to the games.

    14. JC

      For the friendships we made with NBA players, it's great.

    15. CP

      Uh, I never went to the games. I should have gone to more games, I know.

    16. JC

      I went to y- your games and almost got thrown out of your seats. I got a red card one time.

    17. CP

      It's true.

    18. JC

      Is it true?

    19. CP

      (laughs)

    20. GB

      You did?

    21. JC

      Oh, you don't know that story?

    22. CP

      Me, I got, I got a-

    23. GB

      No.

    24. CP

      I got a call, I got a call. I think it was from the Warriors or it was from the NBA, something to the effect of, "Chamath, this guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out." And I said, "Excuse me?" Uh, 'cause I knew that it was Jason.

    25. JC

      It was the Knicks game, in fairness.

    26. CP

      And, and he was like jawboning our own players.

    27. GB

      (laughs)

    28. JC

      I was getting into it with Bogut and with David Lee because I told-

    29. CP

      I thought it was unbelievable. I told Steve Kerr, "Listen, you're up 30 on my Knicks. Sit these guys down. This is bush league for you. What if Steph Curry gets hurt out there? Like..."

    30. JC

      And, uh, you know, Bogut told me to shut up on Andre Iguodala-

  6. 46:54 – 57:04

    Biggest Business Deal

    1. JC

      on OpenAI. 2025, biggest business deal. What do you got, Chamath? What's your biggest business deal for 2025 predictions, Chamath? What do you got? You said Starlink to go public last year. That hasn't happened yet.

    2. CP

      Totally whiffed on that one.

    3. JC

      Yeah.

    4. CP

      Totally whiffed on that one. I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto OEMs.

    5. JC

      Oh.

    6. CP

      And I think that the, the deal that happened at the end of 2024 with Honda and Nissan, I think is a bit of a signal to what the industry has to do, which is to go through a massive wave of consolidation. I think that Tesla is just in an incredible position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality of their software and the quality of their autonomy with FSD. So I suspect that after a couple of more meaningful product releases, it's just gonna trigger the realization by the public capital markets that these auto OEMs are uninvestable. And I think the result of that will be a wave of auto mega mergers.

    7. JC

      Mm. And for people who don't know, Honda and Nissan signed an agreement to merge, and Mitsubishi is involved because they're part of, I think, Nissan's alliance. This would obviously get rid of all of the redundancy in manufacturing, but-

    8. CP

      But I think this is gonna touch, like, the-

    9. JC

      Yeah.

    10. CP

      Like, the European OEMs are in real trouble, you know. What does Volkswagen do? It's not clear. What does Stellantis do? It's not clear. These are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs.

    11. JC

      Mm.

    12. CP

      And so, you know, typically melting iceberg businesses, when they get put under pressure from smart investors like Gavin and, and, and his ilk-... they're forced to merge.

    13. JC

      Hmm. Are you short these, Gavin?

    14. CP

      It's just a cost of capital-

    15. JC

      Gavin, you got a spread trade? Are you short these names?

    16. GB

      Um, I, I would rather not talk about specific positions. I would just say I agree 100% with Chamath. I think these-

    17. JC

      All right. There you go.

    18. GB

      ... they're gonna lose their Chinese business because they don't-

    19. JC

      Yeah.

    20. GB

      ... make competitive products anymore. If there's not massive protectionism, and we're seeing signs of that, they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs. And th- I think the only way that this doesn't ha- Chamath's, the only risk to Chamath's prediction is just government intervention because they're such big employers and, you know, often seen as national champions. But absent really significant government support, they're all in deep trouble.

    21. JC

      Hmm. Okay, well done. Friedberg, last year you said there'd be some blockbuster deals for rights holders, licensing data for AI training, and Reddit did in fact sign two of those. So, uh, a great, uh, prediction from you for last year on biggest business deal. What do you got this year? See if you can go two for two.

    22. DF

      Was it just Reddit? I should probably look it up.

    23. JC

      What do you got this year?

    24. DF

      Well, I, I, I'll, I'll just follow on my Year of the Robot theme. I do think that there's gonna be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute buildout. I think we're gonna see massive funding deals for hardware-based manufacturing buildout in the United States, and I think that those deals may take the form of kind of traditional equity from private markets, or they may have some component that includes government support to, to kind of motivate and drive and accelerate, uh, onshore manufacturing. We're not gonna go in the US to making stuff that is like last century. I think we're gonna need to move manufacturing to the next decade, next century of, of production. And I think that's gonna mean making some of these autonomous and robotic type systems that are gonna become really critical for us, particularly with China doing this massive ramp up and buildout for both drones and robots and autonomous vehicles. So I think we're gonna need to kind of onshore a lot of this, and so that'll be a big amount of capital that's gonna move in. So you'll see a bunch of these big blockbuster deals for hardware buildout in the US.

    25. JC

      Gavin, what do you think is gonna be the biggest business deal in 2025?

    26. GB

      I think the biggest business deal is that there are going to be deals. I think there's gonna, you're gonna see a tidal wave of M&A after four years of not being able to get anything done. I think there's an enormous amount of pent-up demand, so kind of point number one. Point number two, something will happen with Intel, and-

    27. JC

      Ah.

    28. GB

      ... that will be big, and hopefully it's good for America. And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired. You know, I thought your points were well-taken, Jason, about, you know, everything that, uh, you know, Google is bringing to bear and X, X.AI owns their own compute. And then you guys can choose whichever one of these three you like. But the ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure costs, the lowest cost of compute, and definitionally, you can't be the low-cost provider if you're renting your compute from someone else.

    29. JC

      Because of markups.

    30. GB

      Yeah, because there's a markup. If you're buying-

  7. 57:04 – 1:12:59

    Most Contrarian Belief

    1. JC

      2025, most contrarian belief. Last year, enterprise value of OpenAI goes down from Chamath. It roughly doubled, but I just picked it as my prediction-

    2. DF

      (laughs) Roughly doubled.

    3. JC

      ... so I think we're sym- we're simpatico on, uh, what we think long term. Freeberg, you said increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time since World War II. Thank the Lord that that didn't happen. Again, this is contrarian beliefs. People are going out there-

    4. DF

      I, I didn't predict it was gonna happen. I just said the probability went up. It was a... It's a tough, it's a tough thing to call, obviously, but...

    5. JC

      Well, this is most contrarian belief. I think it's fine.

    6. DF

      Yeah.

    7. JC

      Doctor Doom strikes again, it's all good. I picked Apple would become the player in AI, and they did launch Apple Intelligence, but it sucks. I mean, it (beep) sucks. It's terrible. I just bought the Google Pixel Fold 9, and the Gemini works perfectly. It does everything that Siri is supposed to do. If you say, "Please play this song," if you say, "Please download this app," if you say, "Add this to my calendar," it does it and it does it in one-fifth or tenth the amount of time that Apple takes, and Apple gets it wrong every (beep) time. It's a piece of garbage. It's a disgrace. Disgraziad, Apple.

    8. GB

      Apple Intelligence is even worse than Copilot, which is saying something.

    9. CP

      Jason, would you like to announce... You, you bought the domain?

    10. JC

      Disgraziad.com. I own it.

    11. DF

      (laughs)

    12. JC

      I'm not selling it. Right now, it, it redirects to Jake Paul.

    13. CP

      Gai- Ga- Gavin, Gavin, do you have any idea-

    14. DF

      It redirects to Jake Paul.

    15. CP

      ... what, what word he's even saying when he says that? Dis- What is it?

    16. JC

      Disgraziad.

    17. GB

      Disgraziad.

    18. JC

      Disgraziad. It's... Disgraziad is what people used to say-

    19. CP

      (laughs)

    20. JC

      ... in Brooklyn for somebody who is disgraceful. It is a-

    21. DF

      How do you spell it?

    22. JC

      ... Italian-American slang.

    23. CP

      How do you spell it?

    24. JC

      (laughs) Oh, I got it. I don't remem- (laughs)

    25. CP

      V-A-S-

    26. JC

      You don't even know. You own the domain and you don't even know. (laughs)

    27. DF

      D-I-S-G-R-A-Z-I-A-D, disgraziad.

    28. JC

      Yes. And if you type in disgraziad, it goes to Jake Paul. I bought it when I was watching the Tyson fight. It was so disgraceful. I was saying to my brother Josh, the Black Bomber, "This is dis-, dis-" And he just said, "Disgraziad." And I just said, "I wonder if that's available as a domain." I'm redirecting disgraziad right now, Tim Cook, to Apple Intelligence, the website.

    29. DF

      (laughs)

    30. GB

      Do, do you guys think Tyson threw that fight, that it was part of the deal?

  8. 1:12:59 – 1:22:56

    Best Performing Asset

    1. JC

      okay. Best performing asset. Everybody loves this one, best performing asset. Hey, we can, we, you can put a price on this. Best performing asset last year, Chamath did a spread trade, he was long public tech stocks, short private late stage tech stock index. NASDAQ top 100 tech stock ETF was up 10% in 2024. Freeberg, you went with ur- uranium ETF, not Uranus, uranium ETF, and URA, U-R-A was down 1% in 2024.

    2. DF

      (laughs) I know-

    3. JC

      It went sideways.

    4. DF

      You know what? I, I looked at the components of that ETF das- last week when we were preparing for this.

    5. JC

      Mm-hmm.

    6. DF

      It has absolute junk in it. Like, it-

    7. JC

      Hm.

    8. DF

      ... it was not the right, the righ- right way to kind of trade uranium, but anyway, that was my, my outcome for the year.

    9. JC

      I went with the on-demand economy with Uber, Airbnb, and DoorDash. Uber was up 30%, but now it's only up 3% with the robo-taxi headwind. Airbnb is basically flat, uh, and DoorDash up big, 74%. Shout out to Stanley Tang. Great job to the team over there. So Chamath, get your flowers there. Let's do our best performing asset. Let's let, uh, our guest go first. Gavin, what would be the best performing asset of 2025?

    10. GB

      I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory. Going back to-

    11. JC

      Ooh.

    12. GB

      ... we're gonna, we're gonna run out of compute. It's, it's, um, it's actually pr- a pretty shocking stat. High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of NVIDIA's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today, there's two companies that can make it, Hynox- Hynix and Micron. We'll see if Samsung gets their act together. But HBM memory, it's in NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, Amazon Trainiums, and particularly in a world of test time compute and inference being so important, high bandwidth memory is arguably y- more important than it ever was. And it's been, um, it's been sold out for the last two years. So high bandwidth memory would be my pick.

    13. JC

      Okay.

    14. NA

      Good pick.

    15. JC

      Great pick, in fact. What do you got, Chamath?

    16. CP

      So let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero.

    17. JC

      Okay.

    18. CP

      And six out of the remaining eight times, you make 10 extra money. And then the final two times, you make anywhere between 100 to 1,000 extra money.

    19. JC

      Okay, sounds like Bitcoin.

    20. CP

      Okay, so it, this is a loser trade, okay? But I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance. I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps, I'm buying what's called protection that there is no default event in 2025. Again, I'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities, but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace. I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen. I hope that this trade, like I said, 92 times out of 100 loses money, I hope it loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025. It will be the equivalent of Ackman buying CDS, uh, right at the, right at the beginning of the COVID crisis.

    21. JC

      How does one buy those?

    22. CP

      You have to have an ISDA. You talk to the big investment banks and they'll price it out for you. But again, I j- and I j- and I just want to be clear, this is not something I think will happen, it's not something I want to happen, but I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you, when you look at the concentration of the S&P, when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have, when you look at rates spiking, all of these things say having a little insurance may not be a bad thing. So-

    23. JC

      Hm.

    24. CP

      ... I hope I'm completely wrong.

    25. JC

      Gavin, you're nodding. Gavin, you're nodding. You want to answer that?

    26. GB

      I don't know, I was just, I was just thinking, I mean, if you're, if, you know, Chamath's prediction of a bank failure is true, you absolutely want to own CDS. You know, I mean, you'll, you'll forget 100x, you'll, you'll 1,000x, 10,000x.

    27. JC

      What do you have, Freeberg?

    28. DF

      So I went with Chinese tech stocks, uh, Chinese tech ETFs.

    29. JC

      Wow.

    30. DF

      I think that the market... Everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years. Everyone's taken this isolationary stance on positioning portfolios and saying, "Hey, we can't do business with China. It's over." But I do think that the Trump administration, particularly with their recent request on TikTok being, uh, the ban on TikTok being kind of halted, they're trying to line up what I would call kind of, like, the great deal with China. So I don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do. But I think that Trump and leadership in the US government want to kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in order to give Chinese companies access to the American market. And I think that they're going to get a deal done. Given the position with China, I think that they're very likely to kind of get a deal done.

Episode duration: 1:55:33

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