E55: Valuing crypto projects, Rivian worth $100B+, inflation: causes and corrections and more

0:00 Bestie intro and Solana Breakpoint talk 4:43 Covering the censored segment from last week, how to value crypto projects and general investing, what to take away from the podcast 30:45 Rivian's $100B+ valuation, greatest CNBC hit of all time 42:06 Inflation: reacting to the CPI number, problems with MMT, strategies to curb inflation 1:01:34 Xi Jinping becomes China's "Supreme Leader" 1:08:35 GE, Toshiba, and J&J break up into separate businesses: is this the end of the conglomerate? Insights from PayPal breaking off from eBay, what buybacks signal 1:24:44 Besties wrap the show Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-october-2021-11636491959 https://twitter.com/denverbitcoin/status/1458900776747737093/photo/1 https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/11/10/nitrogen-fertilizer-prices-shatter-1 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-tests-israels-iron-dome-in-guam-as-defense-against-chinese-cruise-missiles-11636455224 https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1458443966135902221 https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/02/two-tales-of-federal-debt https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-gains-power-as-communist-party-designates-him-historical-figure-11636635312 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/ge-to-break-up-into-3-companies-focusing-on-aviation-healthcare-and-energy.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/toshiba-like-ge-plans-to-split-into-three-parts-11636700609?st=e6zgv5yq433lvr3&reflink=article_imessage_share https://investor.pypl.com/news-and-events/news-details/2021/Response-to-Market-Rumors-of-Discussions-Between-PayPal-and-Pinterest/default.aspx https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-spent-nearly-20-billion-on-stock-buybacks-in-q4-at-average-prices-below-the-vwap-2021-10-29 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/which-companies-spend-the-most-in-research-and-development-rd-2021-06-21 #allin #tech #news

Chamath PalihapitiyahostJason CalacanishostDavid FriedberghostGuestguest

Nov 12, 20211h 32mWatch on YouTube ↗

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Crypto valuations, Rivian’s bubble, and inflation’s dangerous new reality

The hosts dissect their involvement with Solana, rebutting online accusations of a coordinated pump-and-dump while explaining how venture distributions, deep liquidity, and OTC trades actually work. They broaden the conversation into how to evaluate crypto projects, emphasizing developer adoption, real economic utility, and personal risk management rather than chasing tips or tribal narratives.
The discussion then shifts to broader market froth: Rivian’s $100B+ valuation with minimal revenue, meme stocks, NFTs, and late‑stage private valuations, raising concerns about speculative excess and the dangers of investing without first‑principles analysis. They also examine persistent inflation, linking it to fiscal/monetary overreach, supply constraints, and wage dynamics, and debate the limited tools policymakers now have to control it.
Finally, they touch on geopolitical risk (Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power and Taiwan), the breakup of industrial conglomerates like GE, Toshiba, and J&J, and the chronic misallocation of corporate capital into buybacks instead of innovation. Throughout, the hosts stress that nothing they say is investment advice and repeatedly urge listeners to do their own work.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Understand how crypto tokens and venture positions actually flow before judging motives.

Sachs explains Craft’s economic exposure to Solana via Multicoin, the scale of daily SOL liquidity, and plans to distribute tokens in-kind to LPs; this shows why a brief OTC text with Chamath was not a realistic or necessary ‘pump-and-dump’ scheme.

Evaluate crypto projects by developer commitment and measurable economic value.

Chamath and Sachs recommend tracking where developers actually build (tools, code commits, ecosystems like Solana vs. Ethereum) and whether protocols displace real, quantifiable costs (e.g., Helium vs. telco data, Render vs. AWS GPU) rather than buying purely on hype.

Don’t outsource your investing decisions or chase tips; build your own thesis.

They mock a CNBC guest who can’t explain a stock he’s touting and repeatedly warn that relying on pundits, Twitter tribes, or friends’ ‘hot deals’ usually ends with you holding the bag; you need your own model, edge, and risk limits.

Differentiate productive assets from speculative assets before you invest.

Friedberg draws a hard line between assets that generate cash flow or concrete progress (businesses, IP, rental property) and purely speculative ones (many NFTs, art, unproductive tokens) whose value depends only on someone paying more later.

Today’s macro environment is frothy, and even the smartest operators are de‑risking.

With equities, crypto, and art at all‑time highs, heavy stimulus, and inflation surging, the hosts point out that top founders like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are selling billions in stock—listeners should at least re‑examine their own risk exposure.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

If the smartest people in the world are now selling their core holdings that they told you they would never sell, and you are not reconsidering your position on things, you're either much smarter than them or you're being really, really reckless.

— Chamath Palihapitiya

What they should be getting out of this show is maybe like advice on how to think... critical thinking and like how we think about investments, not tips.

— David Sacks

If you have to rely on someone else's advice or opinion on what to do, you're gonna eventually lose money... you should not be in the market.

— David Friedberg

Inflation's very simple. It's too much money chasing too few goods, and we have both sides of the equation going on right now.

— David Sacks

The benefits of focus are immediate. The benefits of synergy are hypothetical.

— Paraphrased by David Sacks from GE CEO Larry Culp

Clarifying the Solana ‘pump-and-dump’ controversy and how VC token distributions workFrameworks for valuing crypto projects: developer activity and real economic utilitySpeculation, bubbles, and the Rivian IPO as a case study in market frothInvestment philosophy: productive vs. speculative assets and the necessity of doing your own workPersistent inflation: causes, policy responses, and risk of stagflationXi Jinping’s consolidated power, Taiwan risk, and broader geopolitical tensionBreakup of conglomerates (GE, Toshiba, J&J), capital allocation, and stock buybacks

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