All-In PodcastE85: SBF's crypto bailout, Zendesk sells for ~$10B, buyout targets, US diplomacy, AlphaFold & more
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 4:09
Cold open: intros roast, show format, and how much politics to cover
The hosts banter through comedic intros and tease ongoing tension about JCal’s role and the audience’s expectations. They then discuss whether polling listeners is good for editorial direction and how much politics belongs on the show before pivoting back to markets.
- •Comedic back-and-forth on intros and “besties” dynamics
- •Debate: should the show follow audience polls or host curiosity?
- •Acknowledgement that politics splits the audience roughly 50/50
- •Decision to prioritize markets/startups as the core focus
- 4:09 – 5:50
Crypto contagion: 3AC collapse, Voyager/BlockFi stress, and SBF as lender of last resort
JCal lays out the cascading failures triggered by Three Arrows Capital’s liquidation and its knock-on effects on lenders like Voyager and BlockFi. The group frames SBF/FTX’s credit lines as emergency stabilization—and a sign of harsh, wipeout-level rescue terms.
- •3AC liquidation and its leverage/Terra-Luna exposure
- •Voyager’s $650M exposure and subsequent bailout needs
- •FTX/SBF credit lines to Voyager and BlockFi; punitive rescue structures
- •Question posed: “end of crypto” vs another boom-bust cycle
- 5:50 – 11:44
How the sausage was made: off-chain arbs, opaque custody, and systemic risk in unregulated crypto
Sacks explains how unregulated, largely off-chain exchange activity and leverage created hidden systemic risk. They discuss how high-yield crypto lending depended on rehypothecation-like chains of custody that break during crashes, leaving depositors without clear recourse.
- •Off-chain trading and lack of clearinghouses/reporting in crypto
- •High-yield lending as an arbitrage chain that fails when collateral evaporates
- •Custody confusion: users often don’t control keys or enforceable claims
- •Regulatory gap enables systemic risk and “walking dead” insolvencies
- 11:44 – 18:19
SBF’s politics detour: California tax ballot initiative and influence games
The conversation briefly shifts to SBF’s involvement in funding a California ballot initiative to raise taxes on high incomes for a pandemic-prevention institute. Sacks argues it’s misguided and politically motivated influence-building by a non-California taxpayer.
- •FTX described as a major exchange competitor operating offshore
- •Ballot initiative: +0.75% tax on incomes over $5M for new institute
- •Concerns: accountability/governance, California tax-base fragility
- •Speculation: philanthropy as political/regulatory influence strategy
- 18:19 – 26:11
Are crypto assets currencies, commodities, or securities? What survives the bust?
The hosts return to first principles: Bitcoin’s original promise versus the reality that most tokens trade like speculative securities priced in dollars. They debate what “real technology” exists, predict heavy regulatory response, and compare the era to dot-com vs tulips.
- •Chamath’s critique: “currency” priced in USD behaves like a security bet
- •Gensler view: many tokens have attributes of securities; Bitcoin treated differently
- •Sacks: crypto can be a future platform, but price ran far ahead of usage
- •Expectation of DOJ/regulatory scrutiny; discovery will surface off-chain practices
- 26:11 – 34:14
Bitcoin’s ‘baseline’ and the liquidity bubble unwind
They connect crypto’s rise to stimulus-era liquidity and its fall to the broader repricing of risk assets. Sacks suggests Bitcoin’s pre-stimulus equilibrium may be far below current levels, implying more downside if the bubble fully deflates.
- •Liquidity-driven feedback loops amplified crypto narratives
- •Correlation with equity risk curve; crypto as far end of speculation
- •Argument that transparency was abandoned when activity moved off-chain
- •Estimate of a pre-bubble Bitcoin baseline in the ~$3.5k–$5k range
- 34:14 – 45:22
Zendesk sells for ~$10B: why strong SaaS companies go private
The group analyzes Zendesk’s take-private deal, contrasting it with a previously rejected higher offer. Sacks explains the “law of large numbers” in SaaS, the difficulty of moving upmarket, and why private equity may see more value by restructuring for cash flow.
- •Deal context: ~$10.2B take-private vs prior ~$17B interest
- •SaaS multiples resetting; market reprices growth vs profitability
- •Bottoms-up SaaS growth slows; moving enterprise requires heavy OPEX
- •PE thesis: cost cuts, slower growth, higher free cash flow extraction
- 45:22 – 52:36
Stock-based comp and the ‘evergreen’ dilution standard in tech
Chamath breaks down how stock-based compensation and evergreen grants dilute shareholders even when companies generate operating cash. The hosts argue SBC is a real cost often masked in “free cash flow” framing, and debate whether Silicon Valley comp practices are out of control.
- •SBC as recurring shareholder cost via dilution, not just a non-cash add-back
- •Evergreen plans: automatic annual issuance (often ~4%) becoming IPO standard
- •Buffett framing: if compensation isn’t an expense, what is?
- •Potential shift: higher cash salaries, tighter comp discipline, less dilution tolerance
- 52:36 – 59:57
PE playbook and activist pressure: restructuring, layoffs, and ‘regime change’ in public markets
They discuss how private equity and activists push companies to prioritize profitability, often via major cost cuts and reduced innovation. Sacks frames Zendesk as evidence of a broader market regime change away from ‘growth at all costs’ toward margins and low burn.
- •Activist investor pressure (e.g., proxy battles) shaping outcomes
- •PE typically reduces R&D and runs products in maintenance/cash-cow mode
- •Take-private deals provide exits amid tougher antitrust scrutiny for strategics
- •Public-market regime change: growth must come with controlled burn and margins
- 59:57 – 1:08:24
Buyout targets and capital-structure thinking: why debt can be the better bet
The conversation widens to other vulnerable public companies and the coming wave of buyouts, restructurings, and flame-outs. Sacks highlights a strategy shift toward owning debt—being senior in the capital structure—when survival is uncertain.
- •Examples of stressed public companies (e.g., Peloton, BuzzFeed)
- •Private equity ‘salivating’ over dislocated valuations
- •Why “skipping along the bottom” may be wishful thinking
- •Debt investing: seniority, downside protection, survival-focused underwriting
- 1:08:24 – 1:13:38
Macro triad driving markets: rates/inflation, slowdown risk, and war overhang
Sacks lays out three forces: rising rates from persistent inflation, recession risk from slowing activity, and the Ukraine war’s impact on energy/food. They discuss how these factors reinforce each other and why clarity on all three is needed to exit the bear market.
- •Inflation and rate expectations as the primary valuation reset driver
- •Slowdown/recession dynamics and collapsing consumer confidence
- •War as structural supply shock for energy and food; risk of escalation
- •Prediction: more high inflation prints near-term; winter energy risks in Europe
- 1:13:38 – 1:28:33
Could diplomacy have prevented the Ukraine war? NATO expansion debate and ‘off-ramp’ arguments
JCal and Sacks clash over whether the war was preventable via diplomacy and how to balance sovereignty with great-power security externalities. Sacks argues a negotiated framework (neutrality, Donbas autonomy, Crimea) existed pre-war; JCal stresses standing up to dictators and Ukraine’s right to choose alliances.
- •Sacks: war was predictable; NATO-Ukraine as long-declared Russian red line
- •Argument for a three-part settlement framework and critique of ‘forever war’
- •JCal: sovereignty and deterrence; concern dictators won’t stop at one invasion
- •Discussion of China/Taiwan parallels and limited visibility into leadership intent
- 1:28:33 – 1:35:25
Science Corner: AlphaFold enables a detailed 3D model of the nuclear pore complex
Friedberg explains a Science paper combining cryo-EM/X-ray approaches with AlphaFold predictions to map the nuclear pore complex’s structure. The hosts connect the breakthrough to understanding disease mechanisms and designing therapeutics and gene-delivery strategies.
- •What the nuclear pore complex does: transport and gene expression regulation
- •AlphaFold fills structural gaps; imaging helps validate predictions
- •Why it matters: links to viral infection, cancer, cardiovascular and neurological disease
- •Implications for new targets, therapeutics, and improved gene editing/delivery
