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Dalton + MichaelDalton + Michael

How Impatient Should Founders Be In The Pre-AGI Era?

In this episode of Dalton + Michael, the two discuss several topics: How impatient should founders be in the AI era? If it seems like everything is moving very fast, does that mean work that takes a while is not worth doing? Is there a cheat code to guarantee startup success? If you are curious to learn more about "The Manual" on how to write a number 1 hit song, this is a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Manual Dalton + Michael is brought to you by @Standard_Cap You can find Dalton Caldwell on X here: https://x.com/daltonc and Michael Seibel here: https://x.com/mwseibel

Dalton CaldwellhostMichael Seibelhost
Sep 28, 202515mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Balance urgency and patience when building startups in AI era

  1. They argue that the AI era rewards early movers who deliberately choose what to learn and build, but that doesn’t invalidate the timeless reality that great work takes years.
  2. They push back on “doomsday/AGI-pilled” urgency that encourages abandoning long-term paths (school, careers, hard startups) in favor of frantic, short-term optimization.
  3. They note a cultural drift toward “casino-ification” (sports betting, crypto, options) that conditions people to expect wealth and success from quick hits rather than sustained compounding.
  4. They explain that founders must hold a productive contradiction: move with hair-on-fire urgency while emotionally preparing for long, difficult execution.
  5. They warn against searching for a startup “cheat code” or rigid playbook (an “MBA-ification” mindset), emphasizing that startups remain luck-influenced, high-variance, and non-formulaic.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Be early on AI skills, but don’t confuse speed with shortcuts.

Learning the new tools and positioning yourself early can create outsized leverage, but it won’t remove the multi-year nature of building something real.

Treat “end-times” AGI narratives as emotionally compelling, not strategy-proof.

They suggest doomsday framing can become pseudo-religious and distort decision-making into reckless “break glass” behavior rather than thoughtful prioritization.

Hold two truths: urgency in pace, patience in outcomes.

Founders should push themselves and their environment to move fast, while also building resilience for long timelines so they don’t panic-quit when progress is slow.

If the problem is important, it will often feel hard and messy.

They criticize the instinct to abandon tough customer problems in search of “easier” ones, comparing it to misreading hard SAT questions as a sign you’re doing it wrong.

Don’t benchmark success by intermediate milestones like fundraising speed.

They argue that raising a Series A is not “winning,” and may still imply a very high chance of failure; the finish line is enduring value, not optics.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

Look at the 20 software companies that you respect the most. Tell me which one of those blew up super fast. Which one was like, they made it in a year?

— Michael Seibel

You have to simultaneously be impatient and ambitious… and at the same time… hold the idea that doing great work takes a long time.

— Dalton Caldwell

Everything that is valuable is hard, but not everything that is hard is valuable.

— Michael Seibel (citing Peter Thiel)

Raising a Series A means you have a 90% chance of death.

— Michael Seibel

Make sure that you’re having fun… I have not seen people be able to stick with hard challenges for a long time when they’re not having fun.

— Michael Seibel

Pre-AGI founder urgency vs timeless fundamentalsEarly advantage in new tech erasDoomsday culture and AGI anxietyImpatience vs long execution timelinesHard problems vs “easy problem” avoidanceCasino-ification of capitalism and short-termismMyth of the startup playbook (MBA-ification)

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