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Dalton + MichaelDalton + Michael

How Impatient Should Founders Be In The Pre-AGI Era?

In this episode of Dalton + Michael, the two discuss several topics: How impatient should founders be in the AI era? If it seems like everything is moving very fast, does that mean work that takes a while is not worth doing? Is there a cheat code to guarantee startup success? If you are curious to learn more about "The Manual" on how to write a number 1 hit song, this is a good place to start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Manual Dalton + Michael is brought to you by @Standard_Cap You can find Dalton Caldwell on X here: https://x.com/daltonc and Michael Seibel here: https://x.com/mwseibel

Dalton CaldwellhostMichael Seibelhost
Sep 29, 202515mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:00 – 0:25

    Intro

    1. DC

      If all of your norms are the way to get rich is to just make short-term bets, you actually may know, know more people in your real life that made money from short-term bets-

    2. MS

      Yes

    3. DC

      ... than long-term bets.

    4. MS

      Yes. Look at the 20 software companies that you respect the most. Tell me which one of those blew up super fast. Which one was like, they made it in a year?

    5. DC

      None.

    6. MS

      And like, what does that, what does that mean? [laughs]

    7. DC

      [laughs] Why?

    8. MS

      [upbeat music]

  2. 0:25 – 1:09

    Pre-AGI urgency: should young founders ignore old playbooks?

    1. MS

      All right. This is Dalton + Michael, and we're gonna talk about some advice for young people now that we're in this AI era.

    2. DC

      Yeah.

    3. MS

      This is the AI era, right?

    4. DC

      Yeah. We're, we're in the AI era.

    5. MS

      In the AI-

    6. DC

      It's hard to be in the era when you're in it.

    7. MS

      I think-

    8. DC

      But we're in it

    9. MS

      ... we might be.

    10. DC

      Yeah. We're in it.

    11. MS

      I'm gonna set this up, Dalton. I'm gonna give you the controversial first thing to bounce off of. Super intelligent is imminent. We might be entering the, you know, end of days. How much of the pre-A advice even applies anymore? N- you know, I'm a young person. Like, are we not in a break glass in case of emergency zone where I need to ignore everything and just like go nuts, start my company, do whatever I'm gonna do, like-

    12. DC

      Yeah

    13. MS

      ... like, like you know, it's like time is of the essence.

  3. 1:09 – 2:09

    Strategic impatience: be early on the new tools without going full doomsday

    1. DC

      I mean, look, in some ways time is of the essence in that if you're paying attention to what's going on, and you're learning the tools, and you're in the right place at the right time-

    2. MS

      Mm-hmm

    3. DC

      ... it's a really good move. Um, and so there is a, there actually is an argument that being strategic about what you spend time on, who you spend time on, what you learn-

    4. MS

      Yeah

    5. DC

      ... is smart.

    6. MS

      Especially in the beginning of an era.

    7. DC

      Right?

    8. MS

      You get a lot of extra juice if you're early on a skill set in the beginning of an era, right?

    9. DC

      Yeah.

    10. MS

      So that's, that is totally true, and you should think about that, and we can talk about that in a second.

    11. DC

      In addition, though, I think there's something about doomsday culture, I don't know what you wanna call it, but there's something about kinda pseudo-religious stuff that gets people going that they just happen to be alive in the time that the world is going to end, and that if they do a good thing, then they'll be rewarded for it, and then everyone else is in trouble.

    12. MS

      Yeah. This rhymes with some things in humans' past.

    13. DC

      Yeah. Yeah. Sounds familiar, right?

    14. MS

      [laughs] Yeah.

  4. 2:09 – 3:37

    AGI-pilled decision-making: dropping college, abandoning anything not ‘on the rocket ship’

    1. DC

      Um, and certainly, you know, to... Let me try to steelman a little bit. Certainly, I've talked to people that believe that they have a short window to try to make their way in the world and make money before AGI happens, and it'll be much harder in a post-AGI world for them to be set up. I'm trying to steelman that argument, but I've heard people make it.

    2. MS

      Yes.

    3. DC

      Can you make that as strong... Can you make a better version of that, or is that, did I make the best version?

    4. MS

      I mean, I do think there's this kind of argument that if AGI exists, sh- does the startup world still exist?

    5. DC

      I don't think it's just startups. I think it's everything. Like, I, you know, I've spoken... To try to steelman, I've spoken to folks that are like, "Drop out of college. They're not teaching you anything that's useful."

    6. MS

      Yeah.

    7. DC

      "Every minute you spend doing that stuff is, like, downside."

    8. MS

      Mm-hmm. As opposed to before, where college was teaching you everything you needed to know.

    9. DC

      I don't know, man. I, I, I'm not gonna touch that one. Um-

    10. MS

      [laughs]

    11. DC

      But basically, break the glass. Um, you know, do, do whatever you can do because there's something about this moment that anything not spent on some sort of AGI-pilled type-

    12. MS

      Yeah

    13. DC

      ... life trajectory is a bad call.

    14. MS

      To further that, amongst startup founders what I've seen is the, if my thing is not scaling to 100 million in revenue within a year, it's a bad idea. I need to pivot away from it because, like, Cursor and, wow, Lovable or whatever, you know, whatever the startup of the moment is, is taking off, and I'm, I'm not on the right rocket ship.

  5. 3:37 – 4:35

    The core duality: be intensely impatient—and accept that great work takes a long time

    1. DC

      You know, it's such a good point. This is the fundamental tension in all the advice that we've ever given in all the years, is that you have to simultaneously be impatient and ambitious and have, feel like you have a hair on fire thing to be ambitious.

    2. MS

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DC

      And at the same time, in your same brain, hold the idea that doing great work takes a long time. Isn't that so hard? And like-

    4. MS

      It's hard. [laughs]

    5. DC

      And, and again, how many times have we talked to people that are frustrated that they're like, "Aren't you, aren't you kind of contradicting yourself, Dalton? Aren't you-

    6. MS

      Yes. [laughs]

    7. DC

      [laughs] And it's like, yes. That is-

    8. MS

      [laughs] Yeah.

    9. DC

      That is exactly right.

    10. MS

      Yes.

    11. DC

      You, you have to be insanely impatient to do great work-

    12. MS

      Yes

    13. DC

      ... and to push the world that wants to move slow to move fast.

    14. MS

      Yes.

    15. DC

      And you have to set yourself up to not freak out and quit.

    16. MS

      Doing good work takes time. Solving hard problems takes time.

    17. DC

      Yeah, and learning a skill takes time.

  6. 4:35 – 5:45

    Hard doesn’t mean wrong: the SAT math trap and avoiding ‘easy-problem’ pivots

    1. MS

      Yeah. It was really funny. I was talking to this founder. He, in B2B company, and, you know, his kinda stated goal is a little Palantiry. Like, he wants to go into a company, understand their data using AI and help them solve their biggest problem. And he said this thing to me that, like, kinda blew my mind. He's like, "Yeah, we got in there. Learned about their biggest problem. We learned what was causing it. That seemed too hard to solve, so we spent four months searching for other problems that'd be easier to solve. [laughs] " And it's like... [laughs] And then I'm like, "Well, uh, did you find any?" Like, "Not, no, nothing that important." And it's like, I almost think about it like, um, the way I describe it, and maybe I've done this in previous videos, is an SAT math problem. Like, people have been taught that when the SAT math problem gets too hard, they're probably doing it wrong.

    2. DC

      Mm-hmm.

    3. MS

      And so it's like, oh, you don't really need algebra for most SAT problems. Like, you're probably not thinking about the problem the right way. And I think people apply that to startups where it's like, oh, if something is too hard, that means I'm doing something wrong. I should be searching for an easy-

    4. DC

      Yeah.

    5. MS

      And it's like, what's the Peter Thiel quote? There was something like, he's like, "Everything that is valuable is hard, but not everything that is hard is valuable." The first part of that, like, everything that is valuable is hard.

  7. 5:45 – 6:22

    Palantir as a timeline reality check: obscurity, belittlement, then payoff

    1. DC

      Well, it's funny you brought up Palantiry, and I'm not saying I'm the world's biggest expert on it.

    2. MS

      Yeah.

    3. DC

      But man, I knew some early employees that went nowhere. Like, they basically had to just toil in obscurity for many years, and now it's like a meme stock, and I think young people all know about it because of the stock price. But I think they started that company in, like, 2002.

    4. MS

      I think-

    5. DC

      It's been, like, 23 or 24 years

    6. MS

      ... and I think for the first 10, maybe even 15 years, it was kind of belittled.

    7. DC

      Yeah.

    8. MS

      Like, "That's just a consulting company."

    9. DC

      Right.

    10. MS

      Like, "That's the gubtech. Ugh. Like, that's not cool." A- and-Talk about folks who've-

    11. DC

      Yeah

  8. 6:22 – 7:03

    Handling the duality in practice: move fast first, then consciously switch to endurance

    1. MS

      ... toiled on hard problems for a long time. This duality that you're talking about is important. My advice to people when they're encountering this is, like, I don't sit well with this duality. I don't sit well with, like, I've gotta move fast and it's gonna take a long time in parallel. So I just like to make it a serial problem. When I was young and starting a company, it feels like an emergency, we gotta move really fast. I'm ignoring it's gonna take time.

    2. DC

      Yeah.

    3. MS

      Now that I'm in the company [laughs] oh, crap. Okay. [laughs] Like, now, you know, now that I'm pot committed, the thing's going, da, da, da, da. Now I kinda move on to this other belief. Oh, crap. Okay. Like, we're not gonna be able to solve any of the hard problems super fast. You, you gotta get to that second point.

  9. 7:03 – 7:38

    Consistency beats virality: their own channel as an example of ‘keep showing up’

    1. DC

      Well, it's like you gotta keep showing up. Um, I was talking to someone about our videos. This is meta.

    2. MS

      Yeah.

    3. DC

      But basically, how many videos have we made, man? I think we made 60 or so, so far.

    4. MS

      Yeah, yeah.

    5. DC

      No one does that. Like, a lot of people start YouTube channels and they make one or-

    6. MS

      Yeah

    7. DC

      ... two.

    8. MS

      Well, but it didn't blow up.

    9. DC

      And it, and it didn't blow up. [laughs]

    10. MS

      [laughs]

    11. DC

      I- It didn't go viral.

    12. MS

      Yeah.

    13. DC

      And but, like, to actually build something that matters to people, you have to, like, keep doing it. And so, so to tie this into advice for, for AGI and all that good stuff, I mean, it is great to be impatient. It's great to wanna drop everything and learn the tools.

    14. MS

      Yes.

    15. DC

      But you have to combine that-

    16. MS

      Yes

  10. 7:38 – 8:29

    The ‘casino-ification’ of capitalism: short-term bets reshaping young founders’ expectations

    1. DC

      ... with a willingness to sit with something and to really, to do great work. It's gonna take a while. And so whether that's school, whether that's job stuff, whether that's startup stuff. I was reading, uh, something by, uh, this guy recently. Think he called it the casino-ification of modern capitalism.

    2. MS

      Ooh.

    3. DC

      And how many young folks are used to the way, they implicitly are trained to believe that the way you build wealth is from sports gambling. It's a huge part of being young. Uh-

    4. MS

      Crypto.

    5. DC

      Crypto, stock gambling, zero data options. Like, all this stuff is all kinda casino stuff.

    6. MS

      Yeah.

    7. DC

      And so if every, if all of your norms are the way to get rich is to just make short-term bets, and you know people that made money from short-term bets, kind of what we're saying is not gonna land for you.

    8. MS

      No.

    9. DC

      You actually may know, know more people in your real life that made money from short-term bets than-

    10. MS

      Yes

    11. DC

      ... long-term bets.

  11. 8:29 – 9:34

    Fast milestones aren’t the finish line: Series A as a false ‘victory condition’

    1. MS

      Yes. Real money for most people is-

    2. DC

      Yeah

    3. MS

      ... sports betting winning money. You know, I was talking to a founder about this-

    4. DC

      Yeah

    5. MS

      ... and the quote-unquote anecdote I tried to give him to this feeling in his head was just, like, look at the 20 software companies that you respect the most and just, like, tell me which one of those blew up super fast. Like, which, which, which one was like they made it in a year? He's like, "None." And I'm like, "What does that, what does that mean?" [laughs] Like, come on. Like, 'cause I, to me, this also happens in startups so much where it's like, oh, well, they raised a Series A in two months. And I'm like, when did Series A become the endpoint? Like, when, when did that become the, like, victory, like, run through the line, get the gold medal point?

    6. DC

      Yeah.

    7. MS

      Like, it never, like, raising a Series A means you have a 90% chance of death.

    8. DC

      I think it's a little higher, but yeah. [laughs]

    9. MS

      [laughs] There we go. Great. [laughs] At least 90% chance [laughs] of death. Could be higher.

    10. DC

      Depending on which investor you get-

    11. MS

      Yeah, no. I think-

    12. DC

      ... with that Series A-

    13. MS

      I think-

    14. DC

      ... it might round to 100%. [laughs]

    15. MS

      [laughs] I think, I think we're gonna do better than that, but-

    16. DC

      [laughs]

  12. 9:34 – 11:46

    The search for a rulebook: Stanford anecdote and the illusion of a guaranteed framework

    1. MS

      ... I think we're gonna do better. But anyways, and the thing that triggers this for me was a conversation I had with some very smart technical founders coming out of Stanford maybe three or four years ago. And they said this line to me that I will never forget. "We were taught that all consumer startups suck, and that it's only possible to build a B2B company." Any Stanford administration listening, um, maybe they're misquoting him. But anyways, um, it was so interesting because it's almost like they wanted to be given the rules to win the game. Like, they were so seeking, like, please give me a framework. If I do A, B-

    2. DC

      Yeah

    3. MS

      ... C, and D, I win. And this kind of nugget slot, slide, right, it's like regardless of what I'm interested in, slot A is it has to be a B2B SAS company. [laughs] Like, and slot B is this, and slot C is this. And then, like, if I do that, I win.

    4. DC

      It's such a good point because so many people think that there's an answer, there's a secret, and that we have it. People like us have it.

    5. MS

      Yeah.

    6. DC

      Um, I think if you watch our videos, you'll, we, we tell you what we know.

    7. MS

      Yeah.

    8. DC

      But I don't think there's, like, a clip you can take out of one of the videos where like, oh, they said the secret.

    9. MS

      Yeah.

    10. DC

      And it's funny 'cause I'm sure you get these emails too. But there's a lot of people that are like, "The advice that you give in 15 minutes will change everything." Can you imagine actually believing that talking to us for 15 minutes would help whatever someone's problems are?

    11. MS

      Well, I'll say especially after all these videos.

    12. DC

      Yeah. I mean, what, what are we gonna say? We're-

    13. MS

      [laughs] The likelihood in 15 minutes we're gonna say more than... [laughs]

    14. DC

      But, but the point is I think people think that there's, like, an optimal path or set of directions.

    15. MS

      Yes.

    16. DC

      Like, this is a video game and there's-

    17. MS

      Yes

    18. DC

      ... like, a cheat guide.

    19. MS

      Yeah.

    20. DC

      Here's how you get to the-

    21. MS

      Yeah

    22. DC

      ... here's how you get through the maze. And that if someone just tells you how to get through the maze, it's, like, really trivial.

    23. MS

      Yeah.

    24. DC

      And it just bears repeating over and over again. The people that made it through the maze gritted through it, and it wasn't that someone gave them a really easy hack.

    25. MS

      I love staying in this video game frame. There's the cheat code in the video game, right? Like, oh, you get more lives, you get to warp to the end. And then there's the guidebook that's just like, here's exactly how to do every step. I think neither of them apply in startups.

    26. DC

      Yeah.

  13. 11:46 – 14:15

    MBA-ification and why best practices won’t save you: startups are irregular, luck-heavy, and hard

    1. MS

      Like, and I think when people search for them, it's specifically that guidebook. I think the cheat book is, you know, we talked about that with crypto and stuff. I think that guidebook, that's what I'm kind of starting to call the MBA-ification of, of, of startup founders, where it's kind of like MBAs were originally created to train middle managers.

    2. DC

      Yep.

    3. MS

      And if you're bringing a middle manager into a company, there is a guidebook. There's a guidebook on how to get in. There's a guidebook on what to do. There's a guidebook on how to get promoted. Like-

    4. DC

      Yeah, it's like they're teaching you the fundamentals of finance.

    5. MS

      Yep.

    6. DC

      Teaching you the fundamentals of, uh, management.

    7. MS

      Yes.

    8. DC

      Like, it's, it was like General Motors, right? It was basically these really big companies needed a-To hire middle managers

    9. MS

      Yes

    10. DC

      And so these were training, these were trade schools

    11. MS

      These were trade schools for middle managers

    12. DC

      Yeah

    13. MS

      And they would fund the business school, like they would donate money-

    14. DC

      Yeah

    15. MS

      ... to start this thing up. And I think that, like, that has been transposed on this startup thing, which was always a extremely high-risk, irregular, plans need to change all the times, luck based. Like, it, it was, I can't think of anything more opposite than being a middle manager at GM. And what frustrates me is that everyone knows there's no guidebook to being Michael Jordan, right? Like, everyone knows. Like, you know, you can do everything he did and, [laughs] you know, just like... But yet, people cause themselves to believe, "No, if I just follow this set of rigid best practices-

    16. DC

      Yeah

    17. MS

      ... successful company comes out the back." And it's like, no. I understood this being a belief of MBA folks, right?

    18. DC

      Yeah

    19. MS

      If you go to business school for two years, it'll infect you. This is now young technical founders-

    20. DC

      Yeah

    21. MS

      ... are, are being taught this stuff. It's so frustrating because it's kind of like th- these r- rules and best practices won't save you. Like, you're still gonna have to do something extremely hard and be lucky, and it's gonna be at the limit of your abilities. There's no guidebook for that.

    22. DC

      [laughs]

    23. MS

      As a quick aside, I remember this story. This band in England made a guidebook on how to write a number one single.

    24. DC

      Okay.

    25. MS

      And they sold it as a book.

    26. DC

      Uh-huh.

    27. MS

      And it, a b- one band actually did it and tried it, and it worked.

    28. DC

      Okay.

    29. MS

      And the song they made was Chumbawamba Tubthumping.

    30. DC

      [laughs]

  14. 14:15 – 15:24

    Closing advice: optimize for fun so you can persist—and you still have time in early AI

    1. MS

      But I think that, like, maybe, you know, to close, for the advice to young people, I always tell founders, like, make sure that you're having fun, because to your point about you're gonna have to stick with it for a long time, I have not seen people be able to stick with hard challenges for a long time when they're not having fun.

    2. DC

      Yeah.

    3. MS

      And when they are having fun, I've seen them do crazy stuff.

    4. DC

      Yeah, like literally crazy.

    5. MS

      How many times have we seen people do good work that they're proud of fast?

    6. DC

      It's almost like being able to take pride in your work and being proud of your body of work involves putting many years into it.

    7. MS

      Yes.

    8. DC

      And that you almost wanna normalize that, or we wanna tell, you gotta tell people, "Yeah, this is what's normal, is, uh, sustained periods of long work-

    9. MS

      Yes

    10. DC

      ... to do something good, and not hitting a lottery ticket."

    11. MS

      And I think even in this age of, or era of AI, you have time to do great work. Like, we are in the very beginning of it. So with that, thanks, Dalton.

    12. DC

      Thank you. [outro music]

Episode duration: 15:25

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