EVERY SPOKEN WORD
15 min read · 3,285 words- 0:00 – 0:24
Why quirky, non-conformist people naturally generate startup ideas
- DCDalton Caldwell
People that are non-conformist or otherwise quirky, they constantly are generating strange ideas on their own.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And if anything, society tells them, "Hey, like-
- MSMichael Seibel
Ugh. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs] Like, shut up.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, we don't wanna hear-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... all your dumb ideas-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... on how to make things work better.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Right? That's like-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... like the system grinds that out of you.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Those people tend to do well with startups because they don't actually have any problems coming up with unique ideas.
- 0:24 – 0:58
AI makes building easy—now the bottleneck is having a non-derivative idea
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. [upbeat music] All right, this is Dalton + Michael, and today we're gonna talk about how to get unique AI startup ideas. Here are a bunch of old people telling you how to get unique ideas.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Where should we start, Dalton?
- DCDalton Caldwell
I mean, look-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... the problem right now is the tools are so good-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... you can crank out anything, and so the bottleneck is less building the thing, it's actually, um, having an idea, and the problem is most ideas are extremely non-unique.
- 0:58 – 1:38
The funding-chasing mindset: picking ideas to impress investors
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes, and I- I would even go so far as to say many founders out there are not even being encouraged to come up with unique ideas. Like, they're almost being encouraged to, like, what just raised, what just raised a seed round, what sounds good to investors, just tell me how I can get funded, Dalton.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Just tell me what idea-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... gets me funded. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
It's almost like whatever the current thing is on, on Twitter, oh, I guess I'll make a clone of that. Like, oh-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... you know, when we're-
- MSMichael Seibel
There we go
- DCDalton Caldwell
... when we're recording this right now, it's like, oh, OpenClaw, uh, yeah, well, let's just clone that.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, there you go. That's my startup.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Um, [laughs] pretty low effort.
- 1:38 – 3:21
Why “YC funded it” is not real market validation
- MSMichael Seibel
Pretty low effort. I think the other thing that's weird is, like, when people who are trying to start companies think that they can de-risk their idea by s- doing something that they see recently got funded or they see is, like, raised a series B, either one of those is really funny. It's like I've seen so many examples, someone's like, "Well, that thing has raised money at a billion dollar valuation, therefore, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot."
- DCDalton Caldwell
Well-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... what's so funny is we inadvertently were part of that problem, and so what would always happen when I was doing interviews for YC-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... is someone I was interviewing would flag, oh, YC funded a company two batches ago doing XYZ, so that validates the market. And I'd be sitting there being like, I funded that company. I did not fund it for the idea. I actually funded a different idea, and they pivoted during the batch.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so as the person who funded that, this is not validation.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, I can't stress enough, as the source of this validation thing you're talking about-
- MSMichael Seibel
No
- DCDalton Caldwell
... there's no signal here.
- MSMichael Seibel
You involuntarily validated it. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
But it's just... Yeah, so I can't stress enough that trying to read the tea leaves of what kind of stuff is launching in the YC batch-
- MSMichael Seibel
Ugh
- DCDalton Caldwell
... it's not that it's, like, exactly wrong, but it's certainly not, um, a marketplace of picking ideas that have been de-risked.
- MSMichael Seibel
I think it's exactly wrong.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Okay. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
I think they're li- [laughs] Like, I'm sorry-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Okay. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
... like you're gonna decide on what you're gonna work on for maybe the next 10 to 20 years of your life by looking at a list of what other people are working on?
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Like, come on. There's certain things that you're picking that you should think about that way, like maybe where you go to college, like, or m- what you major, maybe, but, like, what you spend the next 20 years-
- 3:21 – 4:17
Look in the discard bin: pursue ideas others considered bad
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... of your life on, like, let's have a little bit more conviction than that. So, um, one of the ideas that you brought up that I really like is this idea of look in the discard bin.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
So, so let's talk about that. If, if you shouldn't look at what's cool, how do you look in the discard bin?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah, the way to think about it is everyone has a filter for startup ideas, and because we have very similar filters, if, if your, if your ideation process is to find an idea that is both good and no one's ever thought of it before, you're gonna have a bad time.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
You're trying to discover something that no one has ever thought of before.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And there's a lot of people in the world. I don't know if you heard-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... Michael.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
There's billions of them, and so most likely what you actually need to do is to find an idea that has already been discarded by others-
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and it's been discarded for some reason. Do you get what I'm trying to say? Like-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... like instead of trying to find something no one's ever thought of, find something that everyone's thought of and thinks is bad.
- 4:17 – 4:57
Use controversy as a signal: friends/family worrying can be a feature
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. Classic examples of that, Instacart would be maybe a very classic example.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
One of the things that I see a lot of people do when they're in this kind of ideation stage is talk to their friends and look for things that all of their friends thinks are good ideas.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
And I might advise the exact opposite in this situation. Like, what happens if you talk to your friends and, like, you got maybe not universal bad-
- DCDalton Caldwell
What if they told you-
- MSMichael Seibel
... but, like, controversial.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah, what if they're like, "Look, I'm worried about you"?
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
If that... If you explain your idea [laughs] Isn't that, isn't that what happened with the founders-
- MSMichael Seibel
I mean-
- DCDalton Caldwell
... of Airbnb, Michael?
- MSMichael Seibel
I mean-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, is that the story?
- MSMichael Seibel
It's... I would say this.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, their parents were worried about them.
- MSMichael Seibel
The-
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- 4:57 – 5:51
Choose “hard” problems and longer timelines to escape consensus
- MSMichael Seibel
Many successful YC companies, every one of their friends and family members thought the idea was bad. We keep on sa- the way you get a unique idea is is you have to move away from consensus, right? So we gotta move away from the consensus of startup founders, away from the consensus of investors, away from the consensus of your friends, and it's really interesting 'cause, like, another way that I like to think about how do you move away from consensus is doing things that are just hard. Saying that you wanna do something that takes 10 years, especially when you're a young person, that just seems really intimidating. So it's, like, easy to tell yourself, "Oh, yeah, I know the numbers say it's gonna take 10 years, but, like, I'll figure it out in two." And then you cut down all of the things that might take longer than two years to work, and I feel like if you wanna cheat, just imagine ideas that might take longer than two years to work [laughs] and the, this, the, the, the likelihood of success could be way higher. [laughs]
- 5:51 – 6:53
OpenAI/Anthropic as non-consensus origins—not copyable templates
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah, and when you think about examples, like currently the, the consensus is that, um, being a founder of OpenAI and Anthropic is a good thing. Again, maybe that'll change-
- MSMichael Seibel
Well-
- DCDalton Caldwell
... um, someday
- MSMichael Seibel
... it took 18 months, right?
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs] And when you think about those companies, A, they were deeply weird.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, can you imagine a weirder start than how OpenAI got started by being a nonprofit research lab and-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, during the time of SaaS ascendance.
- DCDalton Caldwell
You know, a lot of things didn't go well, and they didn't really have a product for a long time. Anthropic was, like, super weird.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
And a lot of their early money came from FTX. Like, the whole story is, like, bizarre.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And now they seem consensus very good, but wow, they're the definition of non-consensus things.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Right? And so I'm not even arguing those are instructive stories, that if you do what they do-
- MSMichael Seibel
No
- DCDalton Caldwell
... you're gonna succeed. I'm actually ec- arguing the opposite. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Which is trying to just copy what worked in the past for other people isn't necessarily gonna give you a truly unique idea.
- 6:53 – 8:07
How VC/podcast content can homogenize founder thinking
- MSMichael Seibel
One of the things that actually makes this harder is how much content VCs are putting out there.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
If you were a young founder in the early 2000s, how much VC content did you have access to?
- DCDalton Caldwell
It didn't exist, right?
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
So the, the way it worked is before TechCrunch, the only people that wrote about technology were, like, the Wall Street Journal, Walt Mossberg-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and he would mostly cover Apple.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
He'd be talking about the new Mac or whatever.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so if you were a startup, there was nowhere, uh-
- MSMichael Seibel
CES. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah, right?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Um, and so then TechCrunch came out, and it was the first place to, like, cover startups, and then now we have this, like, you know, we have a lot of content out there, and again, I'm, you know, we are certainly part of it, and I realize that our voices have been part of this thing.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
My justification is that we've never tried to explicitly tell founders what to think, [laughs] more kinda just giving, telling stories, giving advice, kinda like we're doing office hours but with a wider group of people.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
But if you're making all of your life decisions based on podcasts, that is the definition of coming up with ideas that are not unique.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, literally that's the definition of a non-unique idea, is something that you heard in a podcast, right?
- 8:07 – 9:06
Bring back “solve your own problem”—and ignore the $100B-only filter
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. There's a trope around startup ideas that have been around the entire time that we've been, um, doing startups that I might argue s- wasn't followed during the B2B SaaS era, this idea of solving your own problem or being your own user. It's interesting now because it almost seems like this has completely gone out of style, this idea that, like, oh, if I'm working on something for myself, there's no way it can get big, or like, there's no way the market's big enough, or like, why, why... I don't trust my own ability to, like-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... choose things. How do you think about this?
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think one of the big talking points on, on, you know, VC podcasts or VC content is, hey, $100 billion outcomes, trillion dollar outcomes are the only things that matter.
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And if it doesn't seem really big-
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm
- DCDalton Caldwell
... it's not even... It's like a joke. You'd like-
- MSMichael Seibel
Hmm
- DCDalton Caldwell
... you'd like mock someone of-
- MSMichael Seibel
So how could the thing I want-
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... what that's causing is a lot of ideas that are, like, s- truly unique wouldn't ever fit within that framework.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- 9:06 – 9:45
Examples of ideas that look ‘too small’ until they aren’t (Twitch, Whatnot)
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so of course the example, you know, your startup, uh, Justin putting the camera on his head to start Twitch.
- MSMichael Seibel
Doesn't work.
- DCDalton Caldwell
That's... Is that a $100 billion opportunity, Michael?
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] It wouldn't work.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, you would filter that out.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Right?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Something like Whatnot, which is, you know, one of my better investments at YC.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
It's like, okay, so it's a marketplace for authenticated Funko Pops. What's the TAM on that?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
You would discard that.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yep.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so I think trying to take these, like, late stage investor advice things and apply them to startup ideas, only a small number of things would meet that bar.
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so you're gonna end up with extremely derivative, repetitive ideas that would meet that bar.
- 9:45 – 14:12
Who is best at unique ideas—and what to do if you aren’t that person
- MSMichael Seibel
I completely agree. And I think this leads me to my last thought on this subject, which is I have found that sometimes weird people have an easier time coming up with weird AKA unique ideas. We do have this challenge that now that tech seems like such a money maker and there's so much money invested in early-stage startups, there are a lot of people who are not very weird, who are very attracted to this space. It's funny that I'm saying weird as, like, a positive, because I think in the normal context in America-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... weird isn't seen as positive, but, like, a lot of these ideas that worked seemed really weird, and a lot of the people, when you know them-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... are a little weird. So, like, how do you think about... You know, I sometimes wonder, is the tech startup wor- world as welcoming to weird people as it once was?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
How do you think about this?
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think it's a great point, and again, maybe this is just, you know, we're getting old or something.
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
That's, that's an option.
- MSMichael Seibel
Sure.
- DCDalton Caldwell
But people that are non-conformist or otherwise quirky in ways that you would describe as... Uh, quirky is the nice way to say it. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
But like, like, they, they tend to do their own weird stuff, and they don't usually need to ask permission. Like, they, they constantly are generating strange ideas on their own.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And if anything, society tells them, "Hey, like-
- MSMichael Seibel
Uh, uh
- DCDalton Caldwell
... you know. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, shut up. Like, we don't wanna hear-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... all your dumb ideas-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... on how to make things work better.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Right? That's like-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... like, the system grinds that out of you.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Those people tend to do well with startups because-
- 14:12 – 16:21
Brace for disbelief: commit for years, don’t seek approval (even from them)
- MSMichael Seibel
I think that like in closing for me, um, it is hard to feel like you're working on something where a lot of people think it's a bad idea. That's hard, and I like talking about this because you should brace yourself for that. Like, that is one hundred percent the experience of everyone who's succeeded. So it's like [laughs] -
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
... so like I know it's hard, right? But like you should feel like you're there, and you should feel maybe like you're gonna be there for a couple years, and like if you're working on something that you're so excited by, you're willing to be there for a couple years. As someone who funds startup founders, I'm excited by that, right? When I meet someone who I get the vibe, mm, if this doesn't work in a couple months, they're moving along, I'm, I'm always like, "Oh."
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
I won't, you know... I always said this phrase, it's like, "You're ten percent in, but you want me to be a hundred percent in?"
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Like, that's like a weird line. [laughs] So I don't know. So for, for, for the people watching, like it's totally cool to be weird and to work on something people think is weird. If you're gonna use it-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Including us
- MSMichael Seibel
... including you.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, basically-
- MSMichael Seibel
Including us
- DCDalton Caldwell
... like if your filter is-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, including us
- DCDalton Caldwell
... do the people on the, on these videos seem like they'd approve of our ideas, we're saying no.
- MSMichael Seibel
No, no, no.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs] Like, don't be approval seeking-
- MSMichael Seibel
No
- DCDalton Caldwell
... from authority figures-
- MSMichael Seibel
No
- DCDalton Caldwell
... if you wanna actually have unique ideas.
- MSMichael Seibel
Well, a- and I'll extend that further. We have regularly funded ideas that we thought were bad. We have regularly worked with founders who pitched ideas that we thought were bad, and like to be completely honest, like sometimes thinking of my job as like I'm a doctor, I'm treating the patient walking in the door. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
I don't get to choose. Like, I wanna help these folks succeed, and who am I to know whether this is gonna work?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
I'm not gonna, you know... Let's not put ourselves in that position.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Anyways, great chat, Dalton.
- MSMichael Seibel
All right, thanks. [outro music]
Episode duration: 16:21
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Transcript of episode Eht6XjI-p64
