Dwarkesh PodcastBryan Caplan - Nurturing Orphaned Ideas, Education, and UBI
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
110 min read · 22,475 words- 0:00 – 0:34
What are you criticizing most
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay. So from Twitter, Martin asks, "What are you criticized most for, being too radical or not radical enough?"
- BCBryan Caplan
I would say I'm definitely criticized for being too radical. Most of my colleagues are less radical than me, especially the ones that are right down the hall. Uh, in terms of the people that say I'm not radical enough, it's really pretty rare actually. I think that I've got enough controversial statements under my belt that people focus on that. I mean, there must be a few people who are annoyed at me for not being radical enough, but I hardly ever encounter them really.
- 0:34 – 2:38
numeracy and literacy if not for school
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay, so I think Martin's one of these people because his next question is, um, he, he, he disagrees with you that people wouldn't learn numeracy and literacy if not for school. He thinks that if it's so useful people would just learn it automatically. Do you disagree?
- BCBryan Caplan
So, I don't think I ever said that people wouldn't learn it if not for school. I mean, so is he, is he talking about public school or any school?
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah, he's talking about public s- like, uh, when you say that school should, uh ... other than numeracy and literacy, they're not imparting skills that are broadly useful.
- BCBryan Caplan
So, I mean, that's a very different thing. It's one thing to say that school is imparting literacy and numeracy. It's another thing to say that without the schools, it wouldn't happen in some other way. So, um, I mean, I think what, what I say y- y- in my work is that the data are at least consistent with people acquiring a decent amount of literacy and numeracy in school. You might still say that they're in school and they're trying to teach it, but they're learning it elsewhere. There's probably some of that going on, but again, the point that if there were a large reduction in public spending on education that people would (coughs) still learn literacy and numeracy, I mean, you know, they probably would, although I think it would be somewhat, you know, mildly reduced anyway.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
How so? For what reason?
- BCBryan Caplan
Well, at minimum, there are always some parents that just don't pay very much attention to their kids and neglect them, and, and of course there are a lot of kids who especially do not like math.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Right.
- BCBryan Caplan
So put that together. You know, I mean, I would say whenever people have asked me what's my main criticism of homeschooling, I have said, you know, math skills is the big problem. So of course some people learn a pile of math in home school, but if you do the unschooling option where you just tell the kids they can do whatever they want and the kids aren't motivated to learn math, and a lot aren't, then they really don't learn very much. And I have met quite a few very smart adult homeschoolers who were still very weak in math because they were unschooled. Again, I'm not say- ... I think that it, you know, it is a much smaller deficit than public school propaganda would have you expect, but it still is noticeable, and research does bear this out i- if I recall correctly, that the most notable deficit of homeschoolers is math.
- 2:38 – 4:35
the idea trap
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay, that makes sense. Um, okay, uh, n- this next question is I, um, I read an article you wrote in 2004 called The Idea Trap, and it begins rather ominously given our present circumstances. It starts-
- BCBryan Caplan
Oh, yeah, yeah.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
... "Your country's falling apart. Unemployment inflation are at sky high. World War is on the horizon and there are riots in the streets." Maybe not so much that one, but, "But never fear, an election is coming up. Are we in an idea trap?"
- BCBryan Caplan
Um, so maybe. I mean, so the main thing I'd say about that idea is, or you know, the idea of the idea trap, you know, it makes sense to me. I had some historical examples that seemed consistent with it. In terms of whether it's actually true, I'm not going to strongly say that. I think it's an interesting idea that I wish more had been done with it, but in terms of confirmation, I just haven't seen that much out there. Uh, but yeah, I would say that when conditions are bad, the pattern that at least I superficially see is that people panic and lose their heads and become very open-minded about ideas that really don't make a whole lot of sense. You know, I would consider the current one where, you know, like so there's a, you know, unusually severe virus, so let's lock down entire countries. That to me just seems like a crazy idea. It's one where there's very little precedent for it in history, and yet once you realize especially that there's heterogeneous vulnerability to disease, it sure seems like it would have been made a lot more sense to have said let's go and isolate people that are vulnerable and have everybody else continue on about their lives with moderate precaution. But when people were losing their heads two months ago, that idea was not on the table. Uh, so y- yeah, and again, like, like you, so if it seems likely there's going, you know, that we're going to see continuing shortages and possibly, uh, a return of inflation, then again I expect that there'll be renewed control, uh, calls for price controls and other bad policies, very historically discredited. But nevertheless, uh, that's, I think that's the kind of thing that we're likely to see if inflation does
- 4:35 – 6:49
closing borders
- BCBryan Caplan
kick up.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. Did, did you think that closing, uh, the borders to China temporarily was a good idea?
- BCBryan Caplan
So, I mean, at the time, I honestly thought that it was just an overreaction. In hindsight what I would say is the main problem is that if only one country does it but you keep your borders open to other kinds of travel, then people can go from China to Italy and then from ... and then they get over l- ... and then it spreads from Italy back to the United States if you have American tourists in Italy.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
So, I mean, the main thing that I'd say about closing borders is that we already have something like 98% closed borders if you really actually look at how hard it is for people to travel, travel internationally, especially if you're from a poor country. And to have really stopped this, you'd have to have gone all the way up to near 100% closed.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Right.
- BCBryan Caplan
Um, so again, in hindsight, if you could just do that temporarily, then I think that probably would have been a good idea. You know, so if we could just have two months of no international travel in or out, and then things go back to normal, great. But again, that's something where if other countries on Earth don't do it and they have big problems, then it's not enough just to shut down for two months. You really possibly have to shut down indefinitely. In terms of what island nations that have kept the disease out, what is their long run plan? I don't think they really have a long run plan.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right, and yeah, so they're just going to remain isolated forever. You know, countries in the Caribbean, so much of their economy comes from tourism. You know, like without tourism, I really don't see that they've got much of anything going on actually. I was recent- ... I was actually on one of the last cruise ships on Earth.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
So, I was cruising around the Caribbean. My cruise ship actually was (stammers) like, it was one of ... It- it was flagged for having coronavirus cases on it, and then it turned out that no one on my ship really had it. But that was just the luck of the draw, actually. For-
- DPDwarkesh Patel
When was this?
- BCBryan Caplan
Uh, this was, uh, early February.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Oh, okay. Yeah, you just missed it.
- BCBryan Caplan
And so, you know, like, basically, my ship and three others were all flagged, and I think all three others actually had coronavirus, and mine didn't.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
(laughs) well, yeah-
- BCBryan Caplan
But anyway. So, like, for these Caribbean countries to say, "We're going to permanently, you know, we'll have no international travel," you know, would just be a crazy option for them, because their whole economy is based on tourism. And if you're there, you really just say like, "Without tourism, I don't see that much of anything is going on here."
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Right.
- 6:49 – 8:51
how policies change
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay, I- I want to understand your model of how policies change. So, step one, we have a brilliant economist write a comprehensive book called Open Borders. Step three, we have vadical- radical immigration liberalization. What's step two?
- BCBryan Caplan
Right. So, I mean, I think, you know, honestly, I just don't think that step three is likely to follow from step one alone. If you have a thousand things like step one all together, then maybe.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? So, I mean, I would say, you- I- I- I don't consider myself that persuasive. I'm highly persuasive to a very small number of people with a very specific personality type.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
And for otherwise, I wish I were, but I just don't see much sign that I actually am all that persuasive to people. Uh, so in any case, what, uh ... What- what is the path from writing to- to changing people's minds? Say, you know, if you have a large nu- a large amount of writing sp- th- that actually is persuasive to especially elite young people, then over the course of decades, I think that does make a difference. So, there are a lot of radical ideas or see ideas that seem radical at the time that were aggressively sold to, uh, to young elites. And then when those young elites actually take over, then those ideas start to be implemented. So, again, things like, you know, gay marriage or marijuana legalization, these are ideas that, um, you know, they were sold for a long time, and finally, they did break through and became conventional wisdom among young elites. And then I think we are seeing a lot of changes in those directions. So, that is my main hope. And, I mean, I think the main thing I would say just from my work is, you know, like, I'm just one person, so it's not reasonable for me to expect myself to fundamentally change the world. Right? All I can do is just try to put a little bit of weight on the scale and try to achieve something that way and get some comfort from the idea if I raise the chance of this by .01% compared to the effort required, it was actually still a good deal. Right? But, you know, like, honestly, you do have to expect to fail.
- 8:51 – 11:46
how ideas get into the mainstream
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. Th- I think your impact has been bigger than that, but, uh ... So, w- w- w- how do you think these ideas get into the mainstream? Is it by charismatic politicians or is it by media figures who endorse them?
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah. So, there's a lot of different mechanisms. So, one of them, uh, you know, at least for the kind of thing I do, I think that really, I have trouble talking to anyone other than elites. You know, broadly defined, not just people that are actually leaders but, you know, like kinds of kids that go to Ivy League schools. That's an audience that I feel like I can effectively communicate with them. Right? So, you know, you go and change their minds, and then they go off and do all the different things that elites do. So, some of them are working in politics, some are in the bureaucracy, some are think tanks, some are working in the media. Right? So, you know, the idea that gay marriage, uh, that just television made a big difference for that by showing sympathetic gay characters, that's very plausible to me in terms of social science. I would be at a loss to actually have any real hard evidence there. But still, it seems very plausible if you live through that time, uh, to think that just putting those images in front of people made a difference. Uh, the character of Apu on The Simpsons, who has now been removed, which, because people considered him offensive. This is one of the most sympathetic and beloved Indian immigrants in the world, and, you know, he's been removed. And I think that character actually probably made a difference in terms of making people more pro-immigration. Again, I can't prove it. I don't have any good Apu data or anything like that, but just having lived through that period, it seems very plausible.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm. Um, have you heard Eric Weinstein's arguments against more immigration?
- BCBryan Caplan
So, I've heard a bunch of people say what his arguments are. I don't know that I've actually listened to him. But, uh, do you want to go over it?
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. So, one of his, one of his arguments is that, uh, one of the main rights a citize- citizen has is asymmetric access to his or her own, her own labor market. What do you think of that?
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah. So, you know, I would say that that is then the violation of the right of employers to hire who they want. So, you know, legally, of course, that is, uh, what the system is, that you've got to have permission from the government in order to work. But the idea that this is a morally defensible policy seems to me to be pretty crazy. Again, morally, like how is this different from going back 60 years and saying one of the rights of belonging to a race is to have asymmetric a- access to those, to the labor markets based upon race? You know, it's a description of what existed. But in terms of, yes, but, well, let's say there's a, there's a Black worker. A white employer wants to hire him. What business does a white competitor have to say, "No, I have asymmetric access"? I mean, to me, this is something where this really only seems acceptable because it exists. It's one where status quo bias does dull our sense of moral objection to it. But if we started in a world where everyone had access and then someone suggested, "Let's move to one of asymmetric access," people
- 11:46 – 13:06
discrimination
- BCBryan Caplan
would just think it was crazy.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
But isn't there a difference here in the sense that with discrimination, um, especially when the government allows or conducts it, uh, within citi- ... Like, there's a difference between the government, uh, distinguishing a certain set of citizens to give them special privileges and then the government not distinguishing between non-citizens and citizens for privileges?
- BCBryan Caplan
Well, what I'd say is, I mean, in a sense, the Jim Crow argument was that Blacks, uh, Blacks living in America, even if they're born there, aren't really full citizens.So then, as to what the answer to that is, if someone just said, "Yes, I agree, all citizens should have access, but I don't think that African Americans should be citizens." Or in fact, you, at that time in the South, you might say, "They aren't. They aren't." You know, so they're in, you might say they're in this intermediate zone where they have limited access and the only rationale for that, since all citizens should be treated equally, is that they aren't really citizens.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? And as to what the answer to that would be, I really have trouble understanding it. Uh, so, again, of course you could just say, "Well, look, this, this is what we as a people have, have decided." It's like, well, you've decided it and you've forced it down the throats of a large number of people that would be very happy to hire immigrants. And of course, you in no way consulted the would-be immigrants in the first place. So we as a society, it's basically starts off by begging the question and saying, "Well, we're the ones that get to decide this." Who's that? Well, the people that agree with this are the ones that get to decide it.
- 13:06 – 15:12
citizenship
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Right. Uh, do you think the government has a special obligation to people born here and who are considered citizens under a conventional definition?
- BCBryan Caplan
Right. I don't, but I consider that a much less, uh, unreasonable view than the view that it's okay to prevent foreigners from getting a job. So in other words, if you were to say, "Look, citizenship has its privileges, uh, you know, just like being in a family has its privileges. So just as a person in a family is entitled to get special help from his family, so too people that are citizens are entitled to get special help from the country." You know, that, that argument I disagree with it, but that seems reasonable compared to, "It's okay for us to make it illegal to go and hire someone that isn't a member of the family or that, uh, someone that isn't a citizen." So again, you know, to me immigration laws are a lot like going and slashing the tires, uh, if someone is competing with your kid for a job. It's one thing to say that, "He's my kid so I can give him special presents on his birthday or I can let him live in my house rent-free." Another thing to say, "It's okay for me to go and do bad things to other people that are competing." You know, like even, even if something like a sporting event if, uh, you know, the idea that it's okay to go and tip the scales and let your kid win even though he wasn't the best because he's your kid, you know, almost no one agrees with that. And, you know, what I, what I have said in fact that, you know, there is an interesting analogy between country and family. The difference is that for favoritism of family, we very broadly accept a great many norms about how far you're allowed to go with that, and then it's easy for people to accept that you might, that you can go too far, that people do go too far. Right? So slashing, slashing a competitor's tires to help your kid get a job is not okay. On the other hand, for, uh, for nationalism, the idea that you might be going too far in helping a fellow citizen is one that, where the government policy might, you know, treat non-citizens unfairly for the sake of citizens. It's one that people barely mention. So while there is an analogy, you know, the, you know, you know, f- you know, familial nepotism is just much less dangerous because we do, uh, at least accept the general idea very strongly that, uh, there are limits and people often go too far. Whereas for nationalism, um, you really have to get to the level of Nazism before people start saying it's go- it's getting out of, it's getting out of control here.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- 15:12 – 19:24
interference
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Um, I, I think you and, uh, Eric Weinstein have a completely different framework of understanding what a free market and immigration would mean. So he, he thinks that, um, what, when we import labor into the country, that, in effect, is an interference with the market because we're interfering with the labor market. How, how do you dispute that framework?
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah. So you can s- obviously in a sense, it's semantic, right? So you say, "Well, if the correct starting point is a system of tight regulation, then not enforcing the regulation is interference." And I do think this is, you know, a semantic argument whereas ordinary usage is strongly on my side. So if you say that it's interference to allow foreign product, you know, you know, to allow foreign goods into a market and a free market would... You know, if free market starts off having zero international products, then the interference is allowing inter- international products in, so like, that's just not the way that ordinary usage says.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Uh, so and again, like, you know, in ordinary usage there is distinction between action and failing to act, uh, which we generally don't have a lot of trouble applying. Uh, but yeah, of course if you are very determined just to, uh, use words in an unconventional way or just to play off the status quo and say, "Well, since the status quo is this, anything that moves the status quo counts," then you're gonna end up with his version, but, you know, I think that's just a very strange way of looking at it.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Um, I mean, especially, you know, like so I have known, uh, quite a few libertarians who say, "Well, immigration's like trespass and you don't have the right to be here without our permission." Uh, but so you say, "All right, fine. Then how about is international trade like trespass? Because you don't have a right to set up a store in my house unless I say so." Right? And allowing unpopular religions, that's also tr- uh, is also not allowed because you can't, you can't set up a Sat- a satanic church in my house, so similarly you need the permission of the American people to set up your satanic church in the country somewhere. Right? So basically what I say is that if you think about countries as being the collective property of their citizens, then all libertarian arguments, so, you know, all principled libertarian arguments make no, will just make no sense to you. Um, you know, I would just say it really, you know, does not make sense to think of a country as being like, as being the collective property of the citizens. Particularly like how was this club formed? It was formed involuntarily. There was never unanimous consent, and that really is the heart of any kind of, uh, of any kind of club is when it starts, everyone involved agreed to be there. You can't start a club where it includes a bunch of people that are non-consenting. And that really is what distinguishes countries from, uh, from, from almost any other organization is that they start without unanimous consent.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay. But-
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? And then, you know, then, then, then they, well, they work on the fiction of unanimous consent in order to silence opposition, but I'd say really the, you know, the obvious rationale for saying that countries can't do whatever they want is that they really are not like other organizations. Think you could also just say, you know, even if they were, they're based, uh, they, they have such a large market share, they're monopolies, and if anything should be regulated like a monopoly, a country should be.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
You might even say that as well.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
But go- going back to this, uh, previous question, if countries don't have special obligations to their citizens, then what, w- couldn't, uh, the president just say like, "Listen, we're not gonna spend any money on social security when we could be buying millions of malaria nets and vaccines for Sub-Saharan Africa?"
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah, I mean, I think that actually would be very- would be totally sensible. If you're going to be redistributing, you should be redistributing towards people, uh, you know, in a way that actually gives the largest benefit.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay. Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah. So, I mean, you know, like, like, you know... The Social Security program, of course, is marketed with the idea of we're taking money in, uh, in exchange for something. But if you look at it closely, it's, uh, this is a fig leaf. It is highly redistributive. And, and of course, it's also one where you can't opt out, so it's not really like a real investment program. Um, and, you know, you know, pa- partly people realize but if you could opt out, then the people that are getting ripped off by the system wouldn't want to participate anymore, right? So, yeah, but I would say that, you know, in so far as you are doing coercive redistribution, the correct rationale would be that there are enormous gains that we can get out of this so it's a very tiny loss to the people that are losing, enormous gain to people that are, that are benefiting, right? But again, you know, like, like as I said, you know, using government to asymmetrically redistribute seems l- much less indefensible than using it to say that you aren't allowed to get a job from a willing employer.
- 19:24 – 20:55
redistribution
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. It's funny because you are the straw man that people who aren't completely open borders or for redistribution from the developed to the developing world are, are charged with. You know? But, yeah, it does seem like a sensible
- 23:48 – 25:23
open borders
- BCBryan Caplan
... uh, possibly, uh, she wasn't thinking it through. Possibly, she was completely convinced, but knew that that was not good for business. Who knows?
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm. Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
I mean, I think what I have succeeded in doing with education is at least tipping some people a little bit a little bit of influence a little bit more in the direction of not having, say, free college for all. So I, again, this, even this may be wishful thinking, but I think I may have tipped the scales like 0.1 percentage points to a, against free college for all.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
So, you may, I mean, of course, I can't even really measure that. But, you know, like that seems plausible to me that I've just put a little bit of extra weight on the scales of, "Let's at least not make this wasteful thing free."
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm. Uh-
- BCBryan Caplan
But again, it wouldn't, wouldn't at all surprise me if, say, you know, Biden wins, and then they throw free college, uh, free college for all in as a temporary Coronavirus measure, and then it gets made permanent later on.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
But it (overlapping dialogue)
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Speaking
- 25:23 – 27:05
primaries
- DPDwarkesh Patel
of which, um, which of the 2020 candidates in the primaries did you prefer the most?
- BCBryan Caplan
Geez. So, li- limited to major party candidates? (laughs)
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Well, le- let me ask you about that. Uh, do you, do you v- vote third party generally, given how much you probably disagree with (overlapping dialogue)
- BCBryan Caplan
So, no, I mean, uh, so, like, you know, I, I don't participate in the system. Uh, you know, it's one, you know, it's not a, a, a, a, uh, an absolute principle. So if it actually were totally up to me or if there were only 10 voters, then I would vote, right? But just, you know, like, the combination of knowing how (overlapping dialogue) , how objectively unlikely I am to change the outcome with just what a corrupt and disgusting system it is, you know, those two things to me are enough to keep me from, uh, not participating. I definitely don't condemn anyone who participates. I think that Jason Brennan worked it out or worked out the ethics of this very well in his book, The Ethics of Voting, I'd say is, there's no obligation to vote, but if you do vote, you have an obligation to do so in a, well, in a, based upon common sense and common decency. Um, yeah, but if I had to choose between the candidates that were available, let's see. So let's see. So in... if you were to, you know, there (overlapping dialogue) , there were a few alternative Republicans that, you know, again, like, you know, never really got off the ground, but probably I would have chosen someone like, uh, like, like, you know, Justin Amash or William Weld out of possible Republican nominees.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Out of Democrats-
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
... I mean, Biden is actually close to my first choice just because he's so old and confused, I don't think he inspires anyone, and I do not like inspirational leaders.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
(laughs)
- BCBryan Caplan
I like boring troglodytes, right? They are the least bad people to
- 27:05 – 27:58
Charisma
- BCBryan Caplan
power.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
But if you want a libertarian candidate who's going to radically, uh, change the Overton window on, you know, what the ideas we're considering are, wouldn't you want a sort of charismatic libertarian to come along?
- BCBryan Caplan
Uh, yes. Well, if they, you know, if they're actually were a charismatic, uh, person supporting something good, then yes, I think that would be great. I just don't see any sign of that.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Hmm. (laughs)
- BCBryan Caplan
So, you know, I mean, I'd say that, you know, like overwhelming number of cases that there is a charismatic young leader around, that's when, "Oh God, this is terrible." Or even a charismatic old leader like Trump when he, when he went, like when he was first there, like, "Oh no, this is terrible." People like him, right? And, you know, not everybody, of course. In fact, most people don't like him, but there is a core of, there's a large core of people who love him. And that's dangerous, right?
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
You know, just in the same way that anytime there's a religious revival in a highly religious society, it's just dangerous. It's just better if people are bored.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Right.
- 27:58 – 29:53
Bryans 20s
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Um, okay. Th- this is gonna come out of nowhere, but I, I was curious what you were like when you were 19.
- BCBryan Caplan
Hmm. Ah, much worse than you. (laughs)
- DPDwarkesh Patel
(laughs)
- BCBryan Caplan
Much worse. Uh, when I was 19, I was still at a, just a big intellectual chip on my shoulder. I was, you know, so (overlapping dialogue) , there was only the beginning of the internet. So if you wanted to talk about ideas, you basically had to find people in real life and get them to talk to you about it, uh, talk to you, talk to you about ideas, and it was hard to find people like that. So I basically just took anyone who didn't immediately say, "I refuse to talk to you about this stuff," and just tried to make them talk to me about ideas, and not in a friendly way, along the lines of, "You probably think this terrible popular thing, right? Right. You probably think minimum wage is a good idea, right? Well, you're wrong. Here's why." So that's basically what I was like. By the time I was 19, I was already simmering down. I was at my absolute worst when I was 17, right?
- DPDwarkesh Patel
(laughs)
- BCBryan Caplan
So when I was 17, I was basically attempting to hijack every class conversation and say, "And now, you know, first of all, let me say the terrible things you all believe, and why you're all terrible for believing them, and now obviously you're going to admit you're all wrong and agree with me or else you're scum." Right? So that really was my attitude when I was 17. And the fact that all my friends didn't just purge me, I'm very grateful to them. So thank you friends for not completely getting rid of me, and all the people that I alienated completely needlessly, right? And I'll also say I had no really good excuse because around that same time I did read Dale Carnegie's classic How to Win Friends and Influence People, and when I read it, I knew it was true, I just didn't care. I wasn't ready to listen. So, um, now, on the other hand, uh, you probably would have liked me because anyone who wanted to talk about ideas and was at least sympathetic to what I was saying, then you were my immediate best friend. And you were like, "Oh, this person's great. I love this person." Why? Because the person talks to me about what I want to talk about, right? (laughs)
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. Um, but-
- BCBryan Caplan
You know, that, that was basically my cutoff for whether any person was worthy of my time or not.
- 29:53 – 32:53
Disagreeable People
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. But isn't there a case to be made for disagreeable people and disagreeable kids? Because if not for them, we wouldn't have books that just change, uh, the dialogue on the issues you've written about. Or if not for them (overlapping dialogue) -
- BCBryan Caplan
Well, here, here's what I would say. The case for them is very weak because there's no reason you can't have very controversial views and defend them in a very friendly way. And such people are gen- are, are generally much more effective. Every now and then, there is just a very strangely charismatic, disagreeable person who manages to evoke a lot of influence.... by being themselves, so I think of Ayn Rand as being a really obvious case. Well, even there, the reason her ideas have be- had an influence is because she influenced some friendly people. (laughs) So a very unfriendly person persuades some friendly people who then go and take the ideas to a broader audience. That can work and there are some prominent examples of it, but still, I'm going to say, that's such an extreme long shot that it's just much better to present your ideas in a excruciatingly friendly way.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
And so... I mean, like, it- it is very hard to come up with other examples of people like, like Ayn Rand, you know, especially for something good. So if you want to do something awful, then the highly disagreeable method is somewhat more effective. So for example, if you want to have a violent revolution, then you might basically say, "Here's the strategy. I'm gonna find, uh, one or 2% of the population that are sociopaths. I'm gonna get them on board with me with my violence radicalism. We're gonna form an iron-fisted unit," something like running together a lot of reeds, which are then strong, and, you know, one snaps. You know? Yeah, yeah, that idea. "And then we are going to seize power, and we're gonna start massacring everyone who disagrees with us." So for that, uh, you know, I mean, I think the disagreeable approach is somewhat more effective. Right? I mean, but only for the purpose of gaining power and, and creating a tyranny, right? It's not effective for the purpose of actually making the world better, right? And, and you know, by the way, so even Hitler, (laughs) a notoriously disagreeable fellow, and you can definitely, you can see this in his speeches where he just seems to be a violent fanatic, or in his writings he seems to be a violent fanatic, and yet when people personally met him, they often described him as friendly and charming. Right? So I think, like, Neville Chamberlain said, "Oh, well, you know, I thought he was just gonna be this lunatic and he actually had great social graces and so on, was a good sense of humor." Right? So even there, you know, I would say Hitler knew when to turn on the charm, and that probably was actually important for gaining power, although, yeah, he did, uh, do very well just by being a horrible monster as well.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Uh, but yeah. So what I'd say is, you know, being a horrible monster might be a good approach for creating a, a, an awful tyranny. But for doing good things in the world, I think it is a very bad approach. Uh-
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
... almost always, but with a few exceptions.
- 32:53 – 33:27
Trump
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. E- e- even Trump, who I'm not comparing to Hitler, but he's, he's frequently noted as, as being a disagreeable person, but often people who meet him say that, you know, he's completely charming in, in person.
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I mean, I've heard that for other people, you know, like m- I mean, on the other hand, of course there's people, you know, that, you know, like most people consider to be very charming over- overall, like Bill Clinton, who to me just seemed like a sleaze, but, you know, that's why he's president and I'm ta- and I'm talking on the podcast.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
(laughs)
- BCBryan Caplan
(laughs) Is that the guy like him, to me, I just want to take a bath or just like, just get away from him. I just couldn't stand listening to anything he said.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- 33:27 – 38:36
Biggest Decision Failure
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Um, b- so I want to ask you what you think the, the biggest sort of single decision f- failure was in human history. So the one decision that like, just had the biggest negative impact. If you had to r- put that up, what would you nominate?
- BCBryan Caplan
Wow. So in terms of ones where I think we can trace the effects, uh, most, with most confidence, I would say, you know, any one of the major decisions at the beginning of World W- right before World War I, I think were of tremendous importance. I mean, really, if any one of those major countries had just backed down, I think that it's likely that subsequent human history would have been much improved. Right? So I am very firmly against the view that World War I was inevitable. Right? I think rather, you know, so I think that rather it, there was a window of danger during which if two countries on, on, uh, on opposite sides were to fight, then things could spiral out of control. But nevertheless, I think there was a good chance they could have just gotten through that window of danger period to a higher level of wealth and comfort and satisfaction with life, and I think that generally does give you peace. Basically, when... You know, my general story about peace is that once people don't, no longer remember what it was like to be anything other than fat and happy, you got peace. All right? So there is this interme- there is this window when people have modern technology and modern economies, but the people there still remember when life was very hard and don't mind- are somewhat, somewhat a- accustomed to it, see, that's the really dangerous period. So anyway-
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm. Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
... my view is basically if you would have kept peace in Europe for 20 or 30 more years, then I think we could have avoided both world wars. And I don't think that it would have been that hard. I think it just would have required one of the, like, uh, one of the major actors on either side to es- swallow their pride. So either for the Russians to es- swallow their pride and say, "Yeah, you can have Serbia," or for the Austrians or Germans to es- swallow their pride and say, "Well, you know, we're not gonna go and fight a world war over this," or even for the French to have said, "Yeah, sorry Russia, we're not gonna have your back here. Uh, we don't agree with this." So I think any one of those would have been enough to have prevented World War I. And again, I think that the simple story without World War I, you wouldn't have had communism or Nazism or fascism, I think that's very plausible, and without those, you don't get World War II. And so without those, we avoid most of the horrors of the 20th century.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
But under that model where peace begets peace, how do you explain the fact that after World War II, just war just went drastically down? After, you know, the worst war, we had the longest peace.
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah. So there, I am a big believer in nuclear weapons, made a, made a big difference. Right? So mutually assured destruction. But with the revised though, that nuclear weapons are ultra risky.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
So it increases the chance of p- uh, of peace, but it gives you a much larger chance of annihilation of civilization.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
So-
- BCBryan Caplan
So I mean, yeah, so, so I, I am definitely of the view that the Cold War could have easily ended in World War III, and we got lucky. Right? So any, you know, like, like, you know, the que- and so, you know, like what I would say is we have enough documented close calls-... where nuclear weapons almost got launched, and it was a fairly minor person who prevented the launch. That I think it's just very hard to say that, uh, that- that, you know, that mutually assured destruction was reliable. It worked, and it has some effectiveness, but the idea there wasn't a 5 or 10% chance of a full nuclear exchange during the Cold War, I think is very naive and dogmatic.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Uh, but anyway, that is my story for why any other- any large further war was avoided between the major powers. But anyway, even- even there, I think that there's- there's always an element of randomness, so, mm, uh, there are a lot of people who talk like Hitler who don't actually launch world wars. This is really true. There are a lot of people who just seem like they're foaming at the mouth, but when they're actually in power, they dial it down and just do some minimal stuff, so... I mean, here's the thing about, you know, you know, Putin versus Hitler. So, I mean, Putin has gone and grabbed, uh, tu- a bunch of tiny slivers of territory, and that's it.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? And I remember when he grabbed Crimea and a little bit of Eastern Ukraine, there were people saying, "Ah, well, he's gonna attack Ukraine." Hitler would have taken the whole thing and possibly precipitated World War II.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
Putin is- is someone who just grabs a little sliver of territory that's almost worthless just to go and show that he can do it, just to really, uh, you know, to basi- basically to build hatred between the countries of the world. And just to be, you know, to be defiant and say, you know, "You can't, you're not the boss of me. If I want to grab a few cities in Eastern Ukraine- in Eastern Ukraine, that's just what I'm going to do. Tough luck."
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? Whereas Hitler would grab a few stuff and then he grabs some more stuff and some more stuff and it was just impossible to placate, as it turned out. But, you know, there are a lot of people that you can placate.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay.
- BCBryan Caplan
You might mean... So I mean, I have, I've written several defenses of appeasements and when people always say, "Well, it didn't work on Hitler." And I say, "You know what else didn't work on Hitler? Everything." There was nothing that worked on Hitler. He was just an impossible human being to deal with. Like there's no way that you could get any, that you could like... Being nice to him didn't work, being mean to him didn't work. Nothing worked with Hitler, he was just an impossible person. So...
- 38:36 – 39:48
The Next Hitler
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay, so- so in that case, then the argument would be, well, given that we're really trying to avert Hitler's, right? Because they- they have the most impact, then we- we really want to tailor our policy towards what we would do for the next Hitler. And in that case, we should just do, um, just, you know, we- we should just have stairs to death in every case, in case the next person happens to be Hitler.
- BCBryan Caplan
We should do what?
- DPDwarkesh Patel
We- we should just go all the way to threats and to war in every case when somebody acts like Hitler.
- BCBryan Caplan
Oh, yeah. What I would say is that was basically the attitude in World War I, which then led to Hitler.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah, that's true.
- BCBryan Caplan
So, (laughs) so the problem is that there- there really, it really is a case where there are multiple dangers and saying that we are, that we're ready to go to the hilt for any situation does actually lead to- does create a lot of new risks.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
So which again, I think that, you know, the case of the Iraq war, so you call Saddam Hussein the next Hitler, turns out that ISIS is really the next Nazi movement.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Which probably would never happen but for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah.
- BCBryan Caplan
So, you know, I mean, I mean, it really is one where I think it's like the best approach is not to plan for the worst case scenario, but to look at the general patterns and see how often different situations occur and then plan for that.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- 39:48 – 44:45
Economic Integration
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Uh, so now a lot of people are, uh, revising their opinions on China and saying that the free trade approach was wrong, that we shouldn't have, um, integrated our supply chains. Um, you know, it's kind of like giving, uh, putting your armories in, uh, with your enemy or inside your enemy's countries. If you're- if you're depending on your enemy for bullets, that's kind of what we've done with our supply chains with China. What do you think of that?
- BCBryan Caplan
I think that's pretty crazy. Of course they're, you know, they're intertwined with us and we're intertwined with them. There's been a fair amount of social science on whether economic integration leads to peace and I think almost everyone says that it does. So, you know, the fact that it doesn't lead you- give you everything that you want doesn't mean that it doesn't lead to something better. And again, I mean, I think, you know, most people say this, they just have no notion of what was going on in China before they were integrated. You know, again, it was a totalitarian hell state, only like just one step short of the Khmer Rouge.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? So, and, you know, this integration into the global economy has done not just economic wonders for China, but I think it has actually greatly improved the lives, uh, that the freedoms of regular Chinese citizens. There's been this unfortunate backsliding, uh, but just like with Putin, it's easy to go and talk about the backsliding and to say that things are back to the way they need, back to as bad as they were before. You don't know how things were before. If you know how things were before, you know it's crazy to say that things have gone back to how they were before. They're still, we will, we've still saved 80-90% of the improvement. It's unfortunate that we've lost 10 or 20% of the improvement, but still the idea that things aren't much better is just ridiculous.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? And, you know, which just be based upon not knowing what occurred, um, you know, during, on- in- in this- in Soviet times and in Maoist China.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm. What's your opinion on universal basic income?
- BCBryan Caplan
Uh, yes. So I think this is one of the worst ideas that is getting traction. Uh, I mean, it comes down to we have a finite budget for, uh, you know, for go- for- for government support of people in need and let's go and waste almost all of it on people who don't need it. Because that's the whole universal part. The whole universal part is that we give everyone regardless of need. So Bill Gates gets the money too, right? This is Justin saying no private philanthropist would do this. If you had a billion dollars to give to charity, it would never occur to you to give, uh, to- to- what would it be? To give, uh, like 13 cents to every person on earth. Right? That would just be an idiotic way to hand out, you know, to spend the resources. You want to say, well, where can we do the most good with this money? And the universal basic income is basically saying, we are not going to worry about the best way to spend the money. We're just going to throw it around to everybody. Now- now, once you do this, of course, so if you make the amount very small, then it doesn't break the bank. But if you put it at a level that is anywhere near acceptable to most Americans, then it would be an astronomical burden upon the country and would in fact break the bank. So even like the basic math on this is something like this.... you first ask people, so if you have no money, no income at all, how much money should you get for free from the government? And people usually give a number, something like $15,000 a person. All right? And they say, "Okay, fine." All right, so then family of four gets 60,000 bucks, right? Right. All right, now, how much money should this government start taking away from you when you start earning money? All right? And there, people usually say, "Eh, like 25 cents for every dollar." All right, so now let's do the math. So if a family of four gets $60,000 when they have no income, and you lose 25 cents for every dollar of income that you earn, when do you actually start paying taxes? And the answer, if you do the math, you start paying taxes once your income exceeds $240,000 a year in family income. All right, so essentially what this means is that you would be putting an enormous tax burden on almost ... uh, on a very tiny fraction of the country.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
So it's just totally innumerate and unreasonable. Um, then, you know, there was one guy that I debated on this who just said, "Oh, well all you need is a 70% tax rate and everything will be fine." And it just didn't seem to occur to them that most people think 70% was high.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
But yeah, 70% was high. And of course, remember, this is just funding this program alone. It's ignoring all the other government pro- programs that exist, which also are in need of funding. So it's ignoring national defense, it's ignoring roads, it's ignoring disease prevention. So, uh, yeah, it's a ... So anyway, it, I would say it is a y- a crazy and innumerate idea. And on top of it, I'd also add that it's just morally awful because it's one thing to say that we're going to go and take your money without your consent to feed starving orphans. It's another thing if we're going to say we're going to take your money without your consent just to help everybody. It's like, that is a really lame excuse for going and putting a gun to somebody's head. Right? So if you're going to go and make people contribute whether they like it or not, at least think very hard about what you're spending the money on and don't spend it like a drunken sailor. And really, this, you know, the slogan of UBI should be spending taxpayer money like, like drunken sailors, because that's what it comes down to.
- 44:45 – 44:55
Midtier Colleges
- BCBryan Caplan
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. Um, w- what's your ... Do you think it's going to be a good thing that many people ... Do you think it's a good thing that many mid-tier colleges might go bankrupt because of coronavirus?
- 44:55 – 45:30
Will it make a difference
- DPDwarkesh Patel
- BCBryan Caplan
What I would say is, I don't think that it makes much difference. The students are just going to go to other places and then, you know, so basically they'll go to, to larger public universities at, uh, taxpayer expense. So I think it will actually probably raise the burden on taxpayers marginally. Of course, private schools actually do already get a fair amount of government support. But nevertheless, probably so they're ... probably kids from private school are less of a burden on taxpayers than kids in public school. But in terms of what will happen, I think it's really just shifting the students around. So I don't think it's going to make too much difference overall.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Mm-hmm. Um-
- BCBryan Caplan
And, I mean,
- 45:30 – 46:10
Small unselected private schools
- BCBryan Caplan
I would also say, I don't think it's the mid-tier schools that are gonna go out of business. It's going to be small, uh, small unselected private schools.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Okay.
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? Which are, I also think these schools were right, honestly, to just say, "I don't understand why they have ever existed." Why would you go and pay private school tuition to go to a small undistinguished school, right? And the only answer that makes sense is, well, because your parents went there, all right? But yeah, but why do your parents go there? So, I mean, it's, to me there is something weird about it, so it just means that people's loyalty to a brand that really doesn't have much to offer is surprisingly strong. But there it is.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Hmm. And can you give us a little preview on the next book you're writing?
- BCBryan Caplan
So
- 46:10 – 50:05
Poverty who to blame
- BCBryan Caplan
the new book that I'm w- writing, uh, working on is called Poverty, Who To Blame. And the book does a few different things. So first of all, it starts with a different perspective on poverty. It says that there's this old and unpopular, now unpopular distinction between the deserving and the undeserving poor. And I say it's actually been discarded for no good reason. And in fact, I say that we still use it, we just don't admit it. So we look at the ways that governments spend money. They usually try to focus on children, on, uh, on the handicapped, on the sick, people that are otherwise unable to help themselves. Philanthropists do this. But what's happened is that the distinction has fallen into such disrepute that people use it by stealth, they use it covertly. And so part of what I really want to do is say there was never any reason to get rid of this idea. It's a very good idea. The idea that some people are in poverty through no fault of their own and are especially deserving of help, and should be at the ti- the front of the line for getting help makes perfect sense. And the idea that other people have caused their own, caused their own problem and at least should be at the back of the line, that idea makes perfect sense too. Right? And then furthermore, uh, once you start looking at it this way, another big question you start asking is, well, what's stopping people from solving their own problem? Right? Are there, are there, are there people that are actually being, being held in poverty by someone even though the people themselves could work their way out if they would just be left alone? So yeah, so these are the moral questions that I start with in the book. And again, it's striking because most people who work on poverty really hate the idea of distinguishing between the deserving and undeserving poor. And say it like, like it really does not make sense to be focused on this. It's not ... or, you know, to be so upset about it. Like, the fact that you're making this sanction does not mean that you don't care. It just means that you have a principle of prioritization.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Hmm.
- BCBryan Caplan
And again, like in a world of scarce resources, of course you're gonna prioritize. So why not do it well instead of doing it in the sloppy and covert way? Anyway, so saying it like, like, you know, so there is that general moral point. But then I say that once we take this point seriously, then we actually get a lot of useful ideas for policy. So yeah, first of all, once you start taking the idea seriously that people might be wrongfully held in poverty because someone is stopping them from solving their own problem, then we wind up taking a harder look at bad government policies that, uh, that retard economic growth. So, and especially of course in the third world. So then I wind up saying, uh, using the, using this, uh, deserving versus undeserving poor to say that a lot of pe- a lot of the deserving poor are held in poverty because they're stuck in a country with an awful government, like Venezuela.Right? So, and, uh, in the book I'm gonna talk about the many policies that governments use that actually cre- uh, foment poverty. I mean, we usually have a picture of either governments are spending money to help the poor or they're not. And I say, you know what, the governments do something else. They also cause poverty directly by preventing the creation of n- uh, by pre- by preventing new investment, by preventing the, uh, the building of new homes. By which, which is very common all over the world for government to bury... to really strangle the housing market. And yet who is it that's going to suffer when you strangle the housing market? It's gonna be people that are not able to afford to live at home because of that. So anyway, so I have a chapter especially on bad policy in the third world, where really it could just go on all day because third world countries really do have awful economic policy, right? And part of that is going to be just a defense of what people call, you know, neoliberalism or the Washington Census, which I say actually has been highly effective and really people, uh, uh, have complained a lot about it, really just for being sh- well, anything less than perfect, anything that's not, not the reasonable standard. Uh, then the book is gonna have a section on how first-world governments cause horrible poverty around the world, not through the more popular accusations of imperialism or neo-imperialism or colonialism, but just by preventing immigration.
- 50:05 – 53:25
Individual responsibility
- BCBryan Caplan
Right? So, and again, this is where I tie in my work on immigration and say that there are a great many people on Earth who are totally capable of solving their own problem with poverty if first-world governments just get out of the way and let them come here and get a job. Right? And then finally, the part of the book that will be most controversial, even though I'm saving it for last, is talking about individuals', uh, you know, irresponsibilities causing poverty, where I say, you know, there is just an enormous amount of evidence that, uh, personal irresponsibility causes poverty. Right? And this means there are a lot of people that really are to blame for their own problem, right, and I think that should be said as well. Uh, this part of the book actually draws very heavily on a lot of left-wing sociologists who work on poverty, right, and what's striking about their work is that they have a chapter at the beginning and the end of the book saying anyone who says the poor are in any way to blame for their own problems is a dogmatic, horrible, right-wing ideologue, and then all the chapters from two to n-minus-one carefully study the poor and describe a long list of obviously irresponsible behavior that's causing poverty. You know, everything from just hav- you know, having unprotected sex when you are having trouble supporting yourself. Right? This is extremely common among the poor around the world and, again, it doesn't take any kind of genius to figure out how this is going to lead to poverty. Also, you know, very basic things like not working, uh, not, not being in the labor force. Uh, so especially in rich countries, it's very common for the poor to just have very low rates of labor force p- participation. So again, not being unemployed, but just not even trying to work. Right? And then you've got, you know, drug and alcohol abuse. Um, you know, there's some dispute about whether the poor actually drink a larger average quantity, but there is very good evidence that they are more prone to severe alcohol abuse. Right? So, you know, there was... you know, you could have a, you could have a lower average, but still, out of the people who do drink, they're drinking to excess, uh, in a way which is much more destructive of your life than just having two glasses of wine every day. Right? So you've got that. And then there's other things, just li- like a lack of savings. Which again, of course being poor does not mean that you can't save, because the point of saving is to smooth your income. Right? So even when you're poor, you might very well wanna save because there's something worse that could happen to you and you wanna be prepared for it. So anyway, there's been a lot, there's been a lot of very good work on this done by people that I would say just don't want to draw the obvious implication of it. Right? So, but anyway, so like the main thrust of the book is going to be that we should focus on getting rid of government policies that prevent people from working their way out of poverty. And these policies are not just some obscure, small problems. These are widespread, ubiquitous, and very dangerous policies. And then at the end say, "But that isn't the only thing that's going on. Of course there's also personal respon- personal re- personal responsibility matters too." And again, that... you know, and so, you know, part of the... that ties in with the beginning of the book because, you know, many people will say, "All right, fine. You know, like, personal irresponsibility causes a lot of poverty, but what can government do about that?" And a lot of my answer is, well, if that's the answer, then government shouldn't do something about it. If a person is poor through their own fault, then they should, you know, the person that should do something is the person who's poor and they should get their li- their, their, their, get their lives in order. And it really d- it really is quite appropriate at some point to say, "This is not my problem." Right? Um, you know, "This is your problem, you should solve it."
- NANarrator
Mm-hmm.
- 53:25 – 56:05
Housing regulation
- NANarrator
- BCBryan Caplan
So, you know, that's the book. It's still... the book is still changing as I, as I w- as I, as I write it. I was working on it right before, uh, we had this podcast. So, uh, but anyway, that's what I'm doing. Oh yeah, and by the way, there is actually a- another book that I've started too. This is another graphic novel, but this time on housing regulation. And, uh, so the tentative title is Build Baby Build: The Science and Ethics of Housing. And this is one where I'm trying to take a lot of research that's gone on in the last 15 years on just how horrible housing regulation is. 'Cause it doesn't just raise the price of housing. It actually is a massive drag on economic growth because in earlier periods people would migrate from poor areas of the country to rich areas of the country and then raise their own productivity by becoming part of the higher productivity parts of the United States. And nowadays, this, this happens in reverse. People now are moving from high productivity areas to low productivity areas because the housing cost is so high in the high productivity areas that you actually are richer working in a job where you produce less. This is a new situation. All right? But when people have estimated how much this is impoverishing the United States, there are estimates saying the US would be 10 or 20% richer if only we, uh, the housing regulation in rich parts of the country were similar to what it is in the average parts th- of the US. So...This is, uh, another thing that I'm working on. And again, in terms of, you know, regulation that people hardly ever think about that is causing astronomical harm, this is way up there. I'd say it's probably second right after immigration restriction. And in both cases, you know, we've, we've got policies that people just take for granted and how can you not have them, and yet we, we know there was a period where they didn't exist and where we saw very large gains of a free market, and there really is no good reason not to return to the free market that we could have had. Uh, so that's what I'm going to be pushing for in that book. And again, this is one where I'm trying to take some research which is high quality and important but super boring to almost everyone, and then by putting it in a graphic novel format, I want to get people that otherwise would just fall asleep reading the research or hearing about the topic say, "Oh, this is fascinating." Partly I just want to go ... And, and this book, the goal is to draw the cities that we could have but don't have just to give people a feel for what- how much we really are missing and how awesome it would look. The idea that it would be bad to go and develop the California Central Coast and it would look ugly, to me this is just crazy. When you go and look at, say, San Diego, it looks great to develop the coast. So it's not like people want to go and put an ugly tenement in the San California coast. They want to go and put beautiful places there, so why stop them? It would look better, not worse.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. By the way, I can completely endorse,
- 56:05 – 57:12
Outro
- DPDwarkesh Patel
uh, the graphic novel format. It- it ... Open Borders was not just an interesting read like other books, but it was, it was just like a binge-worthy read like a Netflix show is.
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah. Awesome. Awesome.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Uh, because-
- BCBryan Caplan
Yeah, that's a ... Yeah, binge-worthy, yeah. So, Rio, if you could go write it and write a review on Amazon where you say "binge-worthy"-
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Oh, yeah, I-
- BCBryan Caplan
... I'll be super pleased. Uh-
- DPDwarkesh Patel
I'll, I'll get on that.
- BCBryan Caplan
You don't have to, but it's well-advised. I like the word. (laughs)
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Yeah. Well, uh, I want to be mindful of your time. This seems like a good place to stop. Uh, again, thank you so much for giving me your time. It's r- it's really nice of you.
- BCBryan Caplan
My pleasure. And all these books you can still get on Amazon. There's no problem getting hard copies delivered, I think in the usual Amazon Prime time window of two days. Of course, you can get the, uh, Kindle versions instantly, I think, of all my books and the price is right. So for Open Borders, my latest book, it's only $13.39 for the paperback and $9.99 for the Kindle. And by the way, also Open Borders is a great book for kids. So if you're doing an emergency homeschool and you can't find anything your kids want to read and you want them to read something of substance, uh, let me throw my hat into the ring and say Open Borders could be the book for you.
- DPDwarkesh Patel
Excellent. Thank you so much.
- BCBryan Caplan
Uh, my pleasure. Thanks.
Episode duration: 57:12
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