Dwarkesh Podcast
500K subscribers·121 episodes
The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
The better AI gets, the smaller its share of the economy might get – Alex Imas and Phil Trammell
Chip design from the bottom up – Reiner Pope
Chip design from the bottom up – Reiner Pope
What rebuilding AlphaGo teaches us about self-play, RL, and future of LLMs - Eric Jang
What rebuilding AlphaGo teaches us about self-play, RL, and future of LLMs - Eric Jang
David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming
David Reich – Bronze Age shock, the Neanderthal puzzle, & the sudden spread of farming
How GPT, Claude, and Gemini are actually trained and served – Reiner Pope
How GPT, Claude, and Gemini are actually trained and served – Reiner Pope
Jensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist?
Jensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist?
Michael Nielsen – Why aliens will have a different tech stack than us
Michael Nielsen – Why aliens will have a different tech stack than us
Terence Tao – How the world’s top mathematician uses AI
Terence Tao – How the world’s top mathematician uses AI
Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute
Dylan Patel — The single biggest bottleneck to scaling AI compute
Why Leonardo was a saboteur, Gutenberg went broke, and Florence was weird – Ada Palmer
Why Leonardo was a saboteur, Gutenberg went broke, and Florence was weird – Ada Palmer
Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”
Dario Amodei — “We are near the end of the exponential”
Elon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Musk claims AI’s future bottleneck is power, solved in space
Adam Marblestone – AI is missing something fundamental about the brain
Why brains outlearn AIs: hidden loss functions and steering systems
Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War
Why the Soviet Union Collapsed: Arms Races, Empires, and Economics
Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research
Ilya Sutskever: Beyond scaling laws toward deeply generalizing superintelligence
Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI
Satya Nadella explains Microsoft’s long-game strategy in the AI race
Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise
How Russia Repeatedly Crippled China’s Rise To Protect Its Empire
Andrej Karpathy — “We’re summoning ghosts, not building animals”
Andrej Karpathy explains AI agents, RL flaws, and future education revolution
“I find it almost disturbing that the universe favors life this strongly” – Nick Lane
Nick Lane argues life is inevitable, complex life astonishingly rare
Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end
Richard Sutton: Why Reinforcement Learning Beats LLMs for Real Intelligence
Fully autonomous robots are much closer than you think – Sergey Levine
Sergey Levine explains why practical household robots are five years away
Sarah Paine – How Hitler almost starved Britain
How Britain Survived Hitler’s U‑Boats And What It Teaches Today
Evolution designed us to die fast; we can change that — Jacob Kimmel
Why Evolution Neglected Longevity And How Epigenetics May Fix It
China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
Solar, Silicon, and AI: Why America Can Still Beat China
Artificial meat is harder than artificial intelligence — Lewis Bollard
Why Ending Factory Farming Is Harder Than Building Artificial Intelligence
Sarah Paine — How Imperial Japan defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China
Meiji Japan’s Strategy: How a Tiny Island Overturned Asian Power
Stephen Kotkin — How Stalin became the most powerful dictator in history
Stephen Kotkin explains Stalin’s genius, terror, and communist contradictions
A billion years of evolution in a single afternoon — George Church
George Church on rewriting life, aging, biosecurity, and future biotech
Why China's manufacturing economy is dominating — Arthur Kroeber
China’s techno-industrial rise, trade frictions, and managing U.S. rivalry
"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff
Rogoff warns: China’s crisis deepens as America’s debt gamble grows
Xi Jinping’s paranoid approach to AGI, debt crisis, & Politburo politics — Victor Shih
Xi Jinping centralizes power as China juggles AI, debt, succession risks
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? — Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken
Reinforcement learning plus LLMs race toward agentic white‑collar automation
Mark Zuckerberg — AI will write most Meta code in 18 months
Zuckerberg predicts AI-coded Meta, open-source dominance, and weirder internet
Why Rome actually fell: plagues, slavery, & ice age — Kyle Harper
Plagues, climate shocks, and slavery: rethinking why Rome collapsed
AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu
Why AGI Might Be Decades Away: Intelligence Isn’t the Bottleneck Anymore
AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
Simulating 2027’s AI intelligence explosion and geopolitical endgame risks
AMA: career advice given AGI, how I research ft. Sholto & Trenton
AI Careers, AGI Timelines, and Building a High‑Leverage Podcast Empire
Joseph Henrich — Humans defeated smarter species with cultural evolution
How Cultural Evolution, Not IQ, Made Humans Earth’s Dominant Superorganism
Satya Nadella — Microsoft’s AGI plan & quantum breakthrough
Satya Nadella outlines AI, quantum, and the future of work
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer — 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer Envision AI’s Self‑Improving, Compute‑Hungry Future
Sarah Paine — How Mao conquered China (lecture & interview)
Mao’s ruthless genius: propaganda, peasants, and China’s bloody unification
Sarah Paine — Why Japan lost WWII (lecture & interview)
How Samurai Culture Doomed Japan’s World War II Grand Strategy
Sarah Paine — The war for India (Lecture & interview)
How Great Powers Played Cutthroat Billiards Over India and Pakistan
Tyler Cowen — The #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans
Tyler Cowen: Why Human Bottlenecks Will Slow Transformative AI Progress
Adam Brown — Bubble universes, space elevators, & AdS/CFT
Vacuum decay, holographic universes, and AI that aces grad physics
Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary
Anonymous polymath Gwern on AI scaling, anonymity, and obsessive rabbit holes
@Asianometry & Dylan Patel — How the semiconductor industry actually works
Inside Chips and AI: Scale-Pilled Geopolitics, Taiwan Risk, NVIDIA Power
Daniel Yergin — Oil destroyed Hitler, fracking destroyed Putin
How Oil Shaped War, Wealth, and Today’s Geopolitics and Energy Future
David Reich — How one small tribe conquered the world 70,000 years ago
Ancient DNA upends human origins: small tribe, global takeover explained
Joe Carlsmith — Preventing an AI takeover
Joe Carlsmith on AI takeover risk, alignment, and moral futures
Patrick McKenzie — Money laundering, big tech censorship, SBF & Japan
Discord volunteers outperformed governments in America’s chaotic vaccine rollout
Tony Blair — Why political leaders keep failing at major change
Tony Blair explains why political leaders rarely deliver real change
Francois Chollet — Why the biggest AI models can't solve simple puzzles
ARC prize challenges LLM dominance, demands true machine intelligence progress
Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history
Leopold Aschenbrenner forecasts 2027 AGI and geopolitical superintelligence struggle
John Schulman (OpenAI Cofounder) — Reasoning, RLHF, & plan for 2027 AGI
OpenAI Cofounder John Schulman on Training, Alignment, and Near-Term AGI
Mark Zuckerberg — Llama 3, $10B models, Caesar Augustus, & 1 GW datacenters
Mark Zuckerberg bets on open-source AI, colossal compute, and metaverse
Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken — How LLMs actually think
Inside LLM Minds: Context Windows, Features, and Future Superintelligence
Demis Hassabis — Scaling, superhuman AIs, AlphaZero atop LLMs, AlphaFold
Demis Hassabis explains path to AGI, scaling, safety, and Gemini
Patrick Collison — Why Silicon Valley's most talented should leave
Patrick Collison urges deep craft over status games in Silicon Valley
Tyler Cowen — Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, animal spirits, anarchy, & growth
Tyler Cowen Ranks the GOAT Economists, Markets, AI, and Anarchy
Jung Chang (Wild Swans author) — Living through history's largest man-made famine
Jung Chang recalls Mao’s terror: famine, brainwashing, and survival
Andrew Roberts — Why Hitler lost WWII, Churchill as applied historian, & Napoleon as startup founder
Applied history, nuclear taboos, and startup-style generals reshape war
Dominic Cummings — Inside the collapse of western government
Dominic Cummings dissects why Western governments keep failing catastrophically
Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover
Paul Christiano on timelines, AI coups, and real alignment work
Shane Legg (DeepMind Founder) — 2028 AGI, superhuman alignment, new architectures
DeepMind’s Shane Legg Predicts 2028 AGI, Maps Path and Risks
Grant Sanderson (@3blue1brown) — Past, present, & future of mathematics
Grant Sanderson reimagines math, education, and AI’s evolving intelligence frontier
Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake
Why Dictators Blunder: Grand Strategy, War, And Maritime Power
George Hotz vs Eliezer Yudkowsky
George Hotz and Eliezer Yudkowsky Clash on AI Doom and Timelines
Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) — The hidden pattern behind every AI breakthrough
Dario Amodei on scaling laws, AI safety, and looming capabilities
Andy Matuschak — The reason most learning tools fail
Andy Matuschak explains why learning tools fail and memory matters
Carl Shulman (Pt 2) — AI Takeover, bio & cyber attacks, detecting deception, & humanity's far future
Carl Shulman dissects AI takeover mechanics, risks, and fragile hope
Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment
Carl Shulman Maps How Scaling AIs Could Trigger Intelligence Explosion
Richard Rhodes — The making of the atomic bomb
Richard Rhodes on nuclear weapons, deterrence, and unintended consequences explored
Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
Eliezer Yudkowsky explains why advanced AI likely ends humanity soon
Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence
Ilya Sutskever defends next‑token prediction as path to superintelligence
Nat Friedman (Github CEO) — Reading ancient scrolls, open source, & AI
Nat Friedman on decoding ancient scrolls, AI, and open source leverage
Brett Harrison — FTX US former president speaks out
Inside FTX: Brett Harrison on Sam, dysfunction, and rebuilding crypto
Marc Andreessen — AI, crypto, 1000 Elon Musks, regrets, vulnerabilities, & managerial revolution
Marc Andreessen on AI, managers, and keeping innovation alive globally
Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy
Garrett Jones links migration, IQ, and democracy’s long-run tradeoffs
Lars Doucet — Progress, poverty, Georgism, & why rent is too damn high
Lars Doucet explains Georgism, land taxes, and why rents explode
Holden Karnofsky — History's most important century
Holden Karnofsky explains why AI could define humanity’s entire future
Bethany McLean — Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, frauds, & visionaries
Bethany McLean dissects fraud, visionaries, markets, and capitalism’s blind spots
Nadia Asparouhova — Tech elites, democracy, open source, & philanthropy
Tech elites, philanthropy, and why meritocracies drift into aristocracies
Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
Fraud, Thymos, and Monks: Byrne Hobart Dissects FTX, Power, Ideas
Edward Glaeser - Cities, Terrorism, Housing, & Remote Work
Edward Glaeser on cities: resilience, housing, remote work, and decline
Kenneth T. Jackson - Robert Moses, Hero of New York?
Reassessing Robert Moses: Builder, Bully, and Savior of New York
Brian Potter - Future of Construction, Ugly Modernism, & Environmental Review
Why Construction Stagnates: Regulation, Design Tradeoffs, and Future Tech
Bryan Caplan - Feminists, Billionaires, and Demagogues
Bryan Caplan Challenges Feminism, Defends Billionaires, Warns Demagogues’ Power
Tyler Cowen - Why Society Will Collapse & Why Sex is Pessimistic
Tyler Cowen on Talent, Collapse, Sex, and Long-Term Civilization Risk
Charles C. Mann - Americas Before Columbus & Scientific Wizardry
Charles C. Mann on Contingent History, Collapse, and Technological Salvation
Austin Vernon - Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha
Energy Abundance, Smarter Manufacturing, and Where Real Alpha Still Hides
Steve Hsu - Intelligence, Embryo Selection, & The Future of Humanity
Genetic Prediction, IVF, and Engineering Intelligence: Steve Hsu’s Vision
Will MacAskill - Longtermism, Effective Altruism, History, & Technology
Will MacAskill on shaping humanity’s future through deliberate moral progress
Joseph Carlsmith - Utopia, AI, & Infinite Ethics
Joseph Carlsmith explores utopia, AI risk, and infinite ethics
Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship
Longtermism, criticism, and space: Finn Moorhouse on fixing the future
Alexander Mikaberidze - Napoleon, War, Progress, and Global Order
Napoleon’s Global Impact: War, Reform, Empire, and Modern Power Politics
Sam Bankman-Fried - Crypto, FTX, Altruism, & Leadership
Sam Bankman-Fried on crypto, altruism, and the brutal founder grind
Agustin Lebron - Trading, Crypto, and Adverse Selection
Why Most People Shouldn’t Trade: Edge, Hiring, Crypto, Rationality, Risk
Ananyo Bhattacharya - John von Neumann, Jewish Genius, and Nuclear War
John von Neumann: Jewish Prodigy Who Shaped Computing, War, and Strategy
Manifold Markets Founder - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
Manifold Markets: Play-Money Prediction Markets To Reshape Information And Governance
Pradyu Prasad - Imperial Japan, the God Emperor, and Militarization in the Modern World
Hirohito, public choice, and lessons from Japan’s militarized rise
Razib Khan - Genomics, Intelligence, and The Church of Science
Razib Khan on genes, intelligence, caste, and science’s fading faith
Jimmy Soni - Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the Paypal Mafia
Inside PayPal’s Chaos: Talent, Scenius, and Non-Superhero Founders
Bryan Caplan - Labor Econ, Poverty, & Mental Illness
Bryan Caplan Challenges Poverty, Education, and Mental Illness Narratives
Richard Hanania - Foreign Policy, Fertility, and Experts
Richard Hanania Dissects Foreign Policy Myths, Wokeness, and Falling Fertility
David Deutsch - AI, America, Fun, & Bayes
David Deutsch challenges AI hype, human limits, Bayesianism, and fun
Byrne Hobart - Optionality, Stagnation, and Secret Societies
Byrne Hobart on coordination, stagnation, optionality, and hidden power
David Friedman - Dating Markets, Legal Systems, Bitcoin, and Automation
David Friedman on Dating Markets, Anarchy, Bitcoin, and Future Law
Sarah Fitz-Claridge - Taking Children Seriously | The Lunar Society #15
Sarah Fitz-Claridge argues for non-coercive, rights-respecting parenting philosophy
Michael Huemer - Anarchy, Capitalism, and Progress
Michael Huemer Challenges State Authority, Envisions Anarcho‑Capitalist Future
Uncle Bob - The Long Reach of Code, Automating Programming, and Developing Coding Talent
Uncle Bob on AI, coding careers, ethics, and true craftsmanship
Scott Aaronson - Quantum Computing, Complexity, and Creativity
Scott Aaronson on quantum ideas, genius, busy beaver and creativity limits
Scott Young - Ultralearning, The MIT Challenge
Scott Young Explores Ultralearning, Genius, Ambition, And Realistic Mastery Paths
Charles Murray - Human Accomplishment and the Future of Liberty | The Lunar Society #10
Charles Murray on genius, religion, decadence, and rescuing liberty
Alex Tabarrok - Prizes, Prices, and Public Goods
Alex Tabarrok on Prizes, Public Goods, Baumol, and Better Government
Caleb Watney - America's Innovation Engine
Can America Stay Innovative? Immigration, Clusters, Big Tech, And Policy
Robin Hanson - The Long View and The Elephant in the Brain
Robin Hanson on Long-Term Futurism, Hidden Motives, and Social Signaling
Jason Crawford - The Roots of Progress & the History of Technology
Jason Crawford Explores Why Progress Happened—and How To Protect It
Matjaž Leonardis - Science, Identity and Probability
Matjaž Leonardis Challenges Scientific Identity, Bayesian Induction, and Learning Myths
