Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism

Perhaps the most interesting episode so far. Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech. He explains: - What happened at FTX - How drugs have induced past financial bubbles - How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion - Whether Musk’s Twitter takeover will succeed. - Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ - & ultimately how society can deal with those who seek domination Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3GYC6B1 Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3VKmncT Episode Website: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/byrne-hobart-2 Follow me for updates on future episodes: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp Timestamps: 0:00:00 Intro 0:00:50 What the hell happened at FTX? 0:07:03 How SBF Faked Being a Genius:  0:12:23 Drugs Explain Financial Bubbles 0:17:54 On Founder Physiognomy 0:21:44 Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids 0:31:17 Where are all the Caro-level Biographers? 0:39:45 Where are today's Great Founders?  0:49:07 Micro Writing = Macro Understanding 0:52:13 Elon's Twitter Takeover 1:01:33 Does Big Tech & West Have Great People? 1:12:17 Philosophical Fanatics and Effective Altruism  1:18:00 What Great Founders Have In Common 1:20:39 Thinkers vs. Analyzers 1:26:22 Taiwan Invasion bets & AI Timelines