Ken Rogoff, former chief economist of the IMF, predicts that within the next decade, the US will have a debt-induced inflation crisis, but not a Japan-type financial crisis (the latter is much worse, and can make a country poorer for generations). Ken explains how China is trapped: in order to solve their current problems, they keep leaning on financial repression and state-directed investment, which only makes their problems worse. We also discuss the erosion of dollar dominance, why there will be a rebalancing toward foreign equities, how AGI will impact the deficit and interest rate, and much more!
𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒
* Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ken-rogoff
* Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000712621759
* Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XPKYjWWL3wculkx5z6WiA?si=220a633569594e9b
𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒
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𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒
00:00:00 – China is stagnating
00:25:46 – How the US broke Japan's economy
00:37:06 – America's inflation crisis is coming
01:02:20 – Will AGI solve the US deficit?
01:07:11 – Why interest rates will go up
01:10:55 – US equities will underperform
01:22:24 – The erosion of dollar dominance
Dwarkesh Podcast
