Dylan Patel on Dwarkesh Patel: How EUV Tools Cap AI by 2030

ℹ️ EPISODE INFO

Released

March 13, 2026

Duration

2h 31m

Channel

Dwarkesh Podcast

Watch on YouTube

▶ Open ↗

📝 EPISODE DESCRIPTION

Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, provides a deep dive into the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute: logic, memory, and power. And walks through the economics of labs, hyperscalers, foundries, and fab equipment manufacturers. Learned a ton about every single level of the stack. Enjoy! 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒

• Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dylan-patel
• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-deep-dive-on-the-3-big-bottlenecks-to/id1516093381?i=1000755126873
• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5qiibwoBWY5rXyflK7WJzH?si=SX4ajSKXT-KeNtaHsiTNzw

𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒

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To sponsor a future episode, visit https://dwarkesh.com/advertise. 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 00:00:00 – Why an H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago 00:24:52 – Nvidia secured TSMC allocation early; Google is getting squeezed 00:34:34 – ASML will be the #1 constraint for AI compute scaling by 2030 00:56:06 – Can’t we just use TSMC’s older fabs? 01:05:56 – When will China outscale the West in semis? 01:16:20 – The enormous incoming memory crunch 01:42:53 – Scaling power in the US will not be a problem 01:55:03 – Space GPUs aren't happening this decade 02:14:26 – Why aren’t more hedge funds making the AGI trade? 02:18:49 – Will TSMC kick Apple out from N2? 02:24:35 – Robots and Taiwan risk

🎤 SPEAKERS

• Dwarkesh Patel

  host

  Podcast host and interviewer of the Dwarkesh Patel show, focused on long-form conversations about technology and AI.

• Dylan Patel

  guest

  Semiconductor and AI compute infrastructure analyst and CEO of SemiAnalysis.

🧾 EPISODE SUMMARY

In this episode of Dwarkesh Podcast, featuring Dwarkesh Patel and Dylan Patel, Dylan Patel on Dwarkesh Patel: How EUV Tools Cap AI by 2030 explores aI compute scaling hits bottlenecks in chips, tools, and memory Hyperscaler AI capex largely pre-pays long-lead items like turbines, land, and construction years ahead, so spend today does not translate linearly into gigawatts online this year.

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