EVERY SPOKEN WORD
150 min read · 30,230 words- 0:00 – 2:19
Crypto skepticism, FTX fallout, and what “bullshit” costs
- NANarrator
(drumbeats) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out.
- NANarrator
The Joe Rogan Experience.
- JRJoe Rogan
Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night, all day. (rock music) Speak up for horseshit, Jamie. You're just gonna let them ban bullshit? That could be a problem for bullshit.
- NANarrator
Well, some bullshit's fun.
- MBMike Baker
I think you abdicated your responsibility.
- NANarrator
Some bullshit's fun and should just be, that's the bullshit you like.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes, some bullshit is fun.
- NANarrator
Like wrestling or whatever.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs) Yes. But wrestling doesn't cost people billions and billions of dollars when it doesn't go right.
- NANarrator
Well...
- JRJoe Rogan
Do you think that, that fucking guy who crashed, uh, FTX, the Binance guy, do you think he had any idea that he was gonna crash his business too?
- NANarrator
Oh.
- JRJoe Rogan
'Cause-
- NANarrator
Kinda like collateral damage? I mean-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, well he's, they're going under. He's lost like $15 billion over the last few days.
- NANarrator
Yeah, I, probab- I would say no, he didn't see it coming. No.
- JRJoe Rogan
But fucking duh.
- NANarrator
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Fucking duh. You just, you, you basically showed everybody how vulnerable this money on a c- hard drive is. This like, weird-
- MBMike Baker
I'm mining. I'm mining for coin.
- JRJoe Rogan
Are you? You're mining?
- MBMike Baker
No, no, no, no. I'm just kidding.
- JRJoe Rogan
Wonderful idea.
- MBMike Baker
I know. It's so profitable to mine.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
It was either that or cobalt, and crypto seemed easier.
- JRJoe Rogan
So Jamie, you were saying that people were mad... First of all, they were mad at Peter Zion, for-
- NANarrator
Mostly that.
- JRJoe Rogan
... yeah, for saying what seems to be the case, is that a lot of crypto is just horseshit.
- 2:19 – 5:20
Internet mysteries and pop-culture detours: Satoshi, Banksy, Beatles, and spy movies
- JRJoe Rogan
He's Satos- imagine if that was Satoshi.
- MBMike Baker
That'll come out later.
- NANarrator
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
He's the main guy.
- MBMike Baker
All this time.
- JRJoe Rogan
All this time, he's been hiding in plain sight.
- NANarrator
That's a whole nother fun story too, that we'll never know, I don't think.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. That's kinda funny, right? It's like him and Banksy. They're like, the best uh, escape artists ever.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm. And we've never seen them together. It's like Ringo Starr and Yasser Arafat, you never saw them photographed together, so...
- JRJoe Rogan
I think they look different. I think that's just one of them fun things to say before the internet came around.
- MBMike Baker
Look how old you are.
- NANarrator
(laughs) Ringo Starr, Yasser Arafat.
- JRJoe Rogan
I know. Everybody's like, "What the fuck is he say- Yasser Arafat?"
- MBMike Baker
Who is Yasser Arafat?
- JRJoe Rogan
That guy's dead.
- MBMike Baker
Oh, he is dead. He's, he's, he's been dead and continues to be dead.
- JRJoe Rogan
Ringo's still alive though, right?
- MBMike Baker
Yes. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
He's like, the last of The Beatles that's still alive other than Paul McCartney, right?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, just the two of them. George Harrison and, God bless him, John Lennon.
- JRJoe Rogan
Oh, well that is pretty fucking close.
- MBMike Baker
See? What am I talking about? Look at that.
- JRJoe Rogan
That's not bad. Put him in the hat.
- MBMike Baker
I was not making that shit up.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Damn.
- MBMike Baker
See? And never, ever, for that's a side-by-side comparing two photos, but they were never photographed in the same room. We still to this day don't know.
- 5:20 – 8:19
New year politics: “abolish the IRS,” tax overhauls, and the 87,000 agents narrative
- MBMike Baker
Uh, well happy new year.
- JRJoe Rogan
Happy new year.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
So uh, I was reading Fox News today, 'cause uh, my friend Sean told me they were gonna get rid of the IRS.
- MBMike Baker
Ah.
- JRJoe Rogan
I was like, "What?"
- MBMike Baker
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
"What is happening?"
- MBMike Baker
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
He's like, "Yeah, they're trying to get rid of the IRS." I'm like, "What?"
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
So I go to Fox News and uh, they were saying that they're trying to overhaul the tax system and make it a consumption-based tax, and there's these uh, the, the answer to the squad on the right side is, what do they call themselves? The Patriot 20 or some shit?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, the, oh uh, the Freedom Forum.
- JRJoe Rogan
What do they call themselves?
- MBMike Baker
Or the Fr- I think it's the Freedom Caucus or the Freedom Forum or something like that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Hm.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, it's gotta, it's gotta call freedom of some sort.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) It's, that, of course. You gotta choose one from column A, and then you got like a Caucus or Forum.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
Uh...
- NANarrator
Patriot Act.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. No, they're not gonna, they're not getting rid of the IRS. All those, all those folks who might've gotten excited about that, it's never gonna happen. They've uh, they've moved to defund you know, that, uh, 87,000 agents. But-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, that seemed like a problem, that hiring 87,000 new people. I don't understand, I, you know, I have an accountant that handles all my shit, I don't pay attention to that stuff. But what I do know is that there was a lot of people saying that they weren't gonna go after corporations with that. They were gonna go after like-... you know, middle class people that-
- MBMike Baker
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
... maybe skimped a little here or there and fine 'em hard.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, they're going after small to medium-sized businesses.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
I mean, that's... The, the popular narrative was, "We're gonna hire 87,000 more..." Now look, does the IRS, uh, do they need to update their computer systems, right? Well, well, yeah, sure. Yeah. It's the government, right? Every computer system of the government needs to be updated to, to protect from cybersecurity problems. But do they need 87,000 more agents? No, but the narrative was from the, from the, uh, Biden administration was, you know, "We're gonna go after the ultra-wealthy." Uh, fucking no. You know what?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, that's not what they're doing.
- 8:19 – 13:33
Biden’s classified documents and the real story: think-tanks and foreign funding
- JRJoe Rogan
What did you think about, uh, Biden getting busted with, uh, classified documents?
- MBMike Baker
Ah, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Kind of hilarious.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) It is, it is one of those funny moments, right? Uh, you know, regardless of, uh, A, A, I don't think they're gonna, uh, they're not gonna knock down the doors at the University of Pennsylvania where they found these things, right? At some think-tank that they'd set up. Um, and so that's not gonna happen. But it is kind of fun to, to look at and think, "Oh, really?" But the, the truth is, it happens with every administration, right? Document control isn't that difficult, right? You should be able to know which documents are secret, put them in a box over here, top secret over here, and then special code word, put them over here. And you account for all those documents. That's the way that you do it. But it seems like every administration has this problem. Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
What do they do at the think-tanks?
- MBMike Baker
Oh, they... Well, there's a lot of ruminating.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
A shit ton of ruminating. And-
- NANarrator
What's nearly 10 documents?
- JRJoe Rogan
Almost 10. It's seven. (laughs)
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. It... One was on, incomplete.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
One they hadn't finished yet.
- JRJoe Rogan
What does, does that mean?
- NANarrator
Nearly 10.
- MBMike Baker
Nearly 10. Oh.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NANarrator
That's like... If you say nearly a million, I'll go, "Wow. That's, uh, pretty impressive." You say nearly 10, I'm like, "Can you count?" Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
Tell me the number, you fuck-heads.
- NANarrator
With their hands-
- MBMike Baker
It was the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement. That's-
- JRJoe Rogan
So what happens there?
- MBMike Baker
Hm.
- JRJoe Rogan
What happens at one of these think-tanks? Is it just a way where people get money?
- MBMike Baker
Yes. Yes. People...
- JRJoe Rogan
Oh. It's just-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. People can-
- JRJoe Rogan
... you said yes so quick. (laughs)
- NANarrator
(laughs) Yeah. That's it. That's it.
- MBMike Baker
You know, people, people get grants, you know, or they get a position there. They get the chair to sit for a year and, and study some particular, you know, uh, esoteric aspect of whatever the hell it may be, global engagement.
- 13:33 – 15:21
China in the tech stack: Huawei, Apple’s walled garden, and switching costs
- JRJoe Rogan
What's great, I was just reading about Huawei, that even despite the US sanctions, despite the fact that Google won't let them use the Google Android system or the Google Pay store-
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
... Play Store, rather, they're still killing it. They're still-
- MBMike Baker
Oh, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... have an enormous market share, which leads me to believe that if this didn't happen, they'd probably be number one in the world.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, I think so. I mean, it, uh, well, yeah, it, it, it's... (sighs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Apple's got a nice walled-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... garden thing going on, where it's like, uh, a buddy of mine, my friend Tony, just switched over-
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
... to Apple. S- I love when I get those new blue texts from people. I'm like, "Ha ha-"
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
"... you went over to the dark side, you fuck." He was one of the last holdouts of the green bubble.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
But it's, uh, they're so good at keeping you in there, because your photos all go to the iPhoto, and, you know-
- MBMike Baker
Yes.
- JRJoe Rogan
... I use Notes, you know, like, for comedy, it's, like, the best thing. But I also use Evernote, and you can switch Evernote in between platforms. But it's so easy to keep people.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Because there's so-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... many benefits to iMessage, there's so many benefits to AirDrop.
- MBMike Baker
And we're all fairly simple, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
We, once you get into a habit, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
You don't, you don't wanna change. It's like saying, "Okay, we're gonna upend our computer systems at the company and, and, and go with a new product."
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
No, we're not.
- JRJoe Rogan
No.
- MBMike Baker
Not if we really want to. So with the phones, I mean, shit, we got for, for Christmas, we got the two youngest ones, uh, Mugsy and Sluggo, we got, uh, iPhones for them. Um...
- 15:21 – 16:57
Kids, content, and control: the impossibility of locking down the internet
- MBMike Baker
No, it didn't take long, and, and then, and honestly, you know, everything moves at, at this breakneck speed in technology, obviously. But, you know, we, we, uh, we debated for a while about the youngest one getting him a phone, right? But now he's, he's old enough, right? He's 11, and he's, he's going to sports activities and practice and everything. So from a security perspective, you have to do it.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
But the problem is locking these things down.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
Right? And trying to keep them from seeing shit. (laughs) Uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
You can't.
- MBMike Baker
They just, it will, you can't.
- JRJoe Rogan
You can't.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
They're gonna see shit.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
No, I mean, I'm amazed at the shit that I see just on Instagram, you know? On, on-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... In- just on Instagram, I see people getting murdered every day. Every day.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
I see shootouts every day. I see executions every day. I see people that get torn apart by animals every day.
- MBMike Baker
Man, you've got a hell of an Instagram feed going on there.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's wild.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
My Explore page is a fucking mess.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
It really is. It's horrendous. I'm, I have problems.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, but it, but with, but with kids trying to, I mean, it's like the whole TikTok debate, trying to, trying to say, "Okay, we're gonna shut down TikTok in the US," um, or, "We're going to somehow try to enact regulations to keep kids from accessing porn online," right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
It does, uh, think okay, yeah, in theory, that's great. Shit, if you can figure it out. But it's, it's just not gonna happen, right? Because no matter what you do, once that kid leaves your house and all that technology's still out there, right? Somebody's circumventing it, right? Somebody's figured out some way. And most of these kids, it's incredible how smart these kids are nowadays.
- JRJoe Rogan
They're wizards.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. So-
- 16:57 – 20:09
TikTok bans and data fears: what China can demand from companies
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, they just banned TikTok in India, which I thought was really fascinating. I'm like, "Wow, India's more on the ball than America."
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Well, they may, I, I forget what their version of TikTok is, but that might be also sort of a nationalistic play. There may be a business element to that as well.
- JRJoe Rogan
Oh.
- MBMike Baker
Where they're looking to drive more of their consumers. It's massive, obviously, a massive market. So they may be looking to drive more of their consumers to their version, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Hmm.
- MBMike Baker
It's like, it's like China. China's got its own version, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
ByteDance.
- MBMike Baker
... yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Or whatever it's called.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, yeah, and, uh, you know, so-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
... I, I, I don't, I don't, I don't know that the Indian government was just being, you know, thoughtful about its-
- JRJoe Rogan
Interesting.
- MBMike Baker
... younger folks.
- JRJoe Rogan
Let's see what it says. We...
- NANarrator
I'm figuring it out. It says they actually banned it in summer of 2020 with 59 other apps originally.
- MBMike Baker
(snoring)
- JRJoe Rogan
Hmm.
- NANarrator
And this is what happened after that. I was reading that right now to see if I could get a response from a producer.
- JRJoe Rogan
Oh, I thought it was really recent.
- NANarrator
Well, no, so this article is from, like, today or whatever, just...
- JRJoe Rogan
Why India banned TikTok and what the US can learn from it as pressure mounts for Biden to follow suit. Pressure.
- MBMike Baker
Oof.
- JRJoe Rogan
I haven't even seen-
- NANarrator
India.
- JRJoe Rogan
... any of this pressure.
- NANarrator
This was, uh, so, like, in 2020, they originally did it.
- JRJoe Rogan
It says, uh, after a geopolitical disput- dispute with China, India banned the app entirely, citing a law that allows the government to block websites and apps in the interest of the country's sovereignty and integrity.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
Hmm.
- 20:09 – 27:09
A case study in Chinese intelligence operations: long-game targeting and extradition
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. That's, and that's, yeah, there's, there's a couple other truths there. There's, there's no rule of law, really, to speak of in, in China. There's no recourse for companies outside of China that are operating there. And anything you take there, uh, I'll give you an example. It's actually, this is, this is very interesting (laughs) well, maybe it's not interesting to everybody, but, um, the end of this past year, so I think it was mid-November or so, uh, the Department of Justice, you know, released some information about a long, it, it'd been a fairly long-standing case that the FBI had been involved in, and DOJ and, and others, um, about a, uh, a Chinese intelligence officer. Now, the interesting thing about this case was this individual, uh, Zhu, uh, Yang, Yang Jiang Zhu, was the first, uh, Chinese intelligence officer to be, um, to be extradited to the US. And the story behind this guy is fascinating. He was, he was a fairly senior, he was like a deputy director within the Ministry of State Security there in China. So, a career intelligence officer. And he'd had about 20 years of experience. He started 10 years ago or so targeting, specifically, US, uh, aviation companies, both on the private and the defense side, and the government. And he went after, as just one example of, and he's, he, he was now sentenced to 20 years in prison, uh, just at the end of this past year. So, as an example, if you look at what he did, it's a perfect case study of how the Chinese intelligence, uh, works to gather up information, right, to steal, excuse me, economic intelligence. So, hold on there. I remember that clip where Marco Rubio reached for his water.
- JRJoe Rogan
I don't remember that clip.
- MBMike Baker
(coughs) You don't remember-
- JRJoe Rogan
I don't follow CNN or CSPAN like you follow.
- MBMike Baker
It was... (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
You follow like I follow UFC. I don't-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, that's it. And so when he reached for the water, "Oh."
- MBMike Baker
It's, it's fantastic. I know, I know.
- JRJoe Rogan
What are you doing? Oh, I'm, I, yeah, it's okay.
- MBMike Baker
There he goes.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, there you go. See?
- MBMike Baker
Here's much...
- NANarrator
... being safeguarding human rights. The world is a better place when America is the strongest nation on Earth. But we can't remain powerful if we don't have an economy that can afford it. In the short time that I've been here in Washington, nothing has frustrated me more than false choices like the one the president laid out tonight.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- NANarrator
The choice isn't just between the government...
- JRJoe Rogan
I don't trust you.
- MBMike Baker
What's happening to your face? (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Whoever told him, "You should do that," don't do it. First of all, drink out of a goddamn man-sized bottle of water.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
What's up with that little bitch-ass sized bottle of water?
- MBMike Baker
That was like, it was like somebody he took off an airplane.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, that's ridiculous.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. So, uh, oh, there you go.
- JRJoe Rogan
That's from a, a little kid's little kindergarten table.
- MBMike Baker
And that's all that people talked about after this, uh, rebuttal.
- JRJoe Rogan
Of course. We're petty.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, I know. But anyway, uh, so he, um, he targets, uh, US aviation interests. And as an example, he was using everything. He was using aliases. He was, he was using cover businesses. Uh, he was targeting universities. He started looking at identifying targets within US aviation, um, and as an example, found a guy in, in, uh, GE Aviation. And what he would do is he would just say, "Look, you know, can you come to China and make a presentation at the university about something completely innocuous?" Right? "It's not classified by any means or whatever, but oh, you know, you're so important and you're so smart. We'd love you to come over and present to our university. Um, we'll pay your travel and a stipend." So he, so they do that. So, he starts doing this around 2013. Around 2017, they get this one GE, uh, Aviation employee to travel to China and give a presentation. And by this time, luckily, uh, the FBI had, had, uh, tweaked on this guy and figured out there was something wrong with him. So, in cooperation with the company, the FBI started posing as him, right? Because Zhu's not having face-to-face meetings with this guy. He's doing this all online. So, they start posing as this guy. After a year of just, uh, sort of random, non-threatening contact with this Aviation employee, he starts asking him for specific details, right, uh, of their engine technology, right? GE's got some incredible engine technology. And so the guy, with the cooperation of the FBI, sends a document, right? And on the document, uh, part of it, it just says, "You know, you're not allowed to disclose this outside company. It's proprietary data."And what does that do? Well, the reason why they, they released that is because they wanted to, uh, set the hook on this guy, this Chinese intel officer. And so he gets this and he goes, "Ah, it's working." Right? He thinks, "I got this guy now. I've tasked him with something that's actually interesting and important. He knows he's breaking a rule. He's given me this document." So now he accelerates the tasking a little bit, and he gets the guy to say, "Look, how about during one of your trips over to Europe, you know, we meet?" So, this is where Zhu made his mistake. He goes to Belgium and gets arrested there, right? Um, and it took a while, but he was finally extradited to the US and finally charged. But he was doing other things. He was handling... He was the handler for a kid working, uh, as a student, came over here as a student visa in Chicago. Gave him targets, said, "Here are some individuals," again, within aviation industry, said, "I want you to start looking at them, and maybe some of them are interesting and we might want to start developing some of these targets." Running this kid, you know, who's living and working and studying in Chicago. And the targets were all of Chinese or Taiwanese descent, which is typical, right? They kind of hone in on that, uh, you know. And so eventually that kid got, got wrapped up once we started to figure out what was going on with Zhu and then obviously started to unravel his network. But this kid was also doing the same thing, was targeting under the direction of Zhu and the Chinese intel. Um, other things he did to... I can't... And again, I know I disappeared down a rabbit hole here, but to the point we made earlier in terms of operating in China, he was also targeting other countries. So, he went after a French aviation company that had a facility in China. What does that mean? Well, that means that every, (laughs) every employee, every local employee is probably going to respond if Zhu knocks on the door and says, "I need your assistance. You're gonna have to be my asset." They're probably gonna say yes, right? Because they're operating there in China. Now they're working for a foreign company, but does that really matter when the Chinese regime knocks on your door? So they did. And what they did was with the cooperation of this internal asset, they were able to place malware on a visiting Frenchman's, uh, computer with the hope of taking it back to France and then, you know, uh, affecting their entire system. So anyway, long story short, I guess, the point of that exercise is, um, the aggressiveness, right? The ability. You think about the years that they spend going after targets and, and yet we want to believe somehow TikTok, you know, that they're not gonna touch that. Oh, there's a lot of data there, but we're not gonna go after TikTok data. That's just...
- 27:09 – 29:31
What data is TikTok collecting—biometrics now, leverage later
- JRJoe Rogan
What kind of data do you think they're really accumulating? The thing that's disturbed me is that (clears throat) this, uh, discussion that they're getting biometric data, they're getting facial recognition data and fingerprint data from both, uh, you know, fingerprint readers, from Android phones, and biometric facial data from iPhone, you know, the face opening thing.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
What are they doing with all that shit?
- MBMike Baker
Well, um, some of it isn't of much use to them in the present time, right? But they don't care. So, their, their ability, because of their resources, uh, and their motivation, is to just hoover up everything. And maybe there's no use for that biometric data right now, but maybe there will be, right? So, maybe they, they're collecting all of this and they're thinking, "Okay, at some point we're gonna develop a technology whereby we can use this for a reason." You know, maybe we can remotely, you know, using facial recognition, um, unlock access to... Who knows? You know-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
... just coming up with that. But, but the, the, the point at 30,000 feet is they don't really care. They hoover it all up and then they look at it at some point and they say, "Okay, well, this can be used by Huawei," or, "This could be used over here." Or, you know, or MSS or the State Security Service could use this. They'll figure out a use for it and if it doesn't have a use, fine. It doesn't matter, right? They put it in a box and mark maybe, you know, check back later and maybe they will have a use for it. Uh, it sounds like it's, it's one... I mean, we, we tend to not think in those terms. With everything we do is... tends to be targeted, right? So we'll say, "Oh, this is our requirement. Let's go do that." You know, the Chinese are, are, are... They, they, you know, they're looking 30 years, 40 years, 50 years down the road. And so, you know, they've got a different approach to, to information collection, which is why a lot of companies get caught unawares because they think, "I'm not doing shit. You know, I'm just making a widget."
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
Why would they be interested in me? So, you know, whatever. But I, you know, I realize people are saying, "Oh God, he's fucking banging on about China again." But, you know, if you, if you think about it, we're all occupied with Russia and Ukraine right now, but China's the bigger issue, right? In the long term. And, and we just need to... We need to be able to multitask and yeah, we got to worry about Russia-Ukraine conflict and does that get out of control or just, you know, you know, where's it going? I guess that's a bigger question.
- 29:31 – 38:02
Russia–Ukraine endgame: costs, escalation paths, and information control
- JRJoe Rogan
Where do you think it's going?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Um, I don't think anybody's got a plan in Washington right now, uh, or NATO. I don't think anybody knows. I think they're all being basically reactive as opposed to, you know, what, what's the end game here? What is, what is the, the final way that we wrap this up? And I mean, look, we've spent... The US has spent, I don't know, as of the end of 2022, and that was... That's almost a full year because it started in February. So almost in a full year, the US spent about $50 billion in assistance, and about half of that is military aid, right? In a variety of forms, right? The Highmore systems all the way to protective body armor, right? So it's, it's-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
It's all over the map, and training. Um, if you compare that $50 billion in aid to... And so what's that? About $25 billion in military aid. If you compare that to previous year or the year before, we were probably spending, on the Ukraine, we were probably spending $250, $270 million.... in military assistance, that's it. Right? So that ramp up is incredible. And then that doesn't include what the EU's put into it, what the UK's put into it, and everything else.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
So-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
... how do you back out of that? Right? How do you say, "Okay, we're, (laughs) we're, now we're putting a Patriot missile battery in there"? Um, and, you know, France and, and we have agreed, I think we're looking towards, you know, more advanced, um, armor technology. We're gonna give them tanks that they've been hankering for. Hankering? (laughs) I said hankering. Um, and so... That might be a Ukrainian word. Um, I, I don't know. When you w- I don't... I have no idea where it's going to wrap up. Putin's not gonna give up Crimea, so what does that mean? Well, you got to create some middle ground then, where it's not gonna be a complete victory for the Ukraine, and that's gonna make a lot of people unhappy who are just standing around waving Ukraine flags. Right? And so where do you go from there? I, I don't know. You know, hopefully there's some serious negotiations happening off the radar screen, but, uh, there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence to that effect, and Putin doesn't seem to show any interest in it. Um, and he's been able so far to tamp down on the dissidence at home. And really, much like with China, the only thing Putin would really fear is losing power, and he loses power if he loses the population, and so far, that really hasn't happened. There's been protests, uh, people unhappy with the, uh... Sorry, that was my-
- JRJoe Rogan
I think that's your phone.
- MBMike Baker
That was my SportsCenter alert, I guess. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
You get a da-da-dat-da-dun?
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, exactly, whenever there's something big happening in the world of sports. Um, and, uh, so anyway, I, I... To answer your question in a very lengthy, rambling way, uh, who knows where it goes? But it would be nice if we had more open discussion about it, at least in Washington, and, and open with our NATO allies about what's gonna happen. We can't keep up, I don't think, this same pace of support. You know, I, it's... It seems unreasonable to think that we can. But...
- JRJoe Rogan
Has there been any discussion, uh, as to like how long we do this for?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, not really. I think there's a... Oh, actually... I think there's a, there's a general sense, because everybody's got ADD, there's a general sense of fatigue to some degree, I mean, in some circles. But, um, saying you want to know where it's going isn't saying that you're in support of Putin, and that's part of the problem. In today's world, if you say, "Well, so where is this all going?" People say, "Well, fuck you." You're a-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
... Putin puppet. Well, no.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right, right, right.
- MBMike Baker
Fuck you, I just want to know what's happening. So...
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, it's weird like that, isn't it? I mean, it's, it's so strange that you're either with them or against them, and you can't just be going-
- MBMike Baker
(lighthearted music)
- JRJoe Rogan
... "What are we doing?" What... Is it not working?
- MBMike Baker
Hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
Lift the top.
- MBMike Baker
Oh.
- JRJoe Rogan
You gotta lift the top.
- MBMike Baker
Fucking hell.
- JRJoe Rogan
Do you not know how to work a cigar lighter?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, it's hard to-
- JRJoe Rogan
What, they teach you that in the CIA?
- MBMike Baker
It's technical nowadays. Look at this.
- 38:02 – 41:30
Iran as the other flashpoint: protests, repression, and nuclear breakout timelines
- JRJoe Rogan
The Orion regime, the, what they're doing scares the shit out of me.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's really scary. They just tortured and murdered a, a karate champion, and for protesting, and-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, rappers disappeared now.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
I mean, th- they really don't care. They've, they've killed, depends on the estimates you read, but, you know, 450, 500 people on the street during protests, much less all the people who have just disappeared, right? And they're sitting, held in prison somewhere. So ...
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, but e- everyone over here is so distracted by Ukraine and Russia, that, that we, we rarely talk about Iran.
- MBMike Baker
Well, yeah. We ... That's, yeah, that's a great (laughs) point. We, um, we're very, sort of singular in our attention, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
And so it's like, again, we can't multitask. So we should be worried about Iran, we should be w- ... I mean, what, really, where are the big flashpoints? Russia-Ukraine, obviously is one. Iran, 'cause what, what, what's gonna happen if Iran ... Here's a thought, right? If you, if you think about the breakout potential for Iran to develop a, a, a nuke, right? A weapon. Um, some estimates now are, are, it, about a week, one week, right? To develop enough, uh, enriched uranium. You've got to, uh, enrich it.
- JRJoe Rogan
So a week from right now?
- MBMike Baker
If they s- ... Yeah, they're basically saying, look, if they make that decision, uh, they need what, 20, 25 kilograms of enriched uranium at like 90%. That's, that's weapons grade. So they could do that within a week, is, is, uh, a number of estimates, legitimate estimates. They could d- ... That's for one, you know.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
And, okay, so, you know, is there value in that? Well, from their perspective, perhaps. They could do three weapons in maybe a month's time. So that breakout that we used to talk about in terms of, you know, year, years, um, at least, at least many months (laughs) now is, is shrunk, right? And so the idea is, as a flashpoint people say, "Well, why should we still be worried about Iran?" Well, because, you know, (sighs) there's a, uh, a high likelihood that if the Israelis get, you know, the sense that that's where they're heading, that they're gonna do ... th- then they may take action, right? Kinetic action to stop it. They've done it in Iraq, they did it in Syria, gone after, you know, these, these capabilities. And that could s- obviously cause a flash there that spreads out of control, right? And draws us into it. So, you know, there's reasons why, 'cause people, you know, sometimes people say, "Why should we care? Why, why do we care about Taiwan? Why do I care about Iran? What do I ..." It's because of the potential for a problem that we can't get our hands around, that we can't control. And so with, with Iran, it's, uh, largely comes down to this issue of, you know, what is their breakout? Now, aside from just enriching uranium, they gotta come up with the weaponization of it all, right? And that could take longer, right? That could take months and months, right? But, you know, it's a heavy lift to figure out what their plans and intentions are. So ... And, and, you know, we kind of backed out of this Biden administration was clear that they wanted to get back into the nuke agreement from 2015. That was like, "Yeah, we gotta, we gotta do everything we can." And so they started those talks when they got in, and now they've kind of shut them down basically, 'cause the Iranians, you know, made some demands that weren't realistic. And also, yeah, the protests, right? And also they're selling fucking weapons to Russia, right? (laughs) So, you know, Russia's turned to Iran and North Korea to resupply their hardware and, and, and get gear that they can't get, drones in particular, from Iran. So do we really want to be talking, you know, a n- uh, a nuke deal
- 41:30 – 48:24
Royal family ‘war room’: Harry, Meghan, memoir incentives, and PR strategy
- MBMike Baker
with Iran at this moment? You know, probably not, you know, whether it's pragmatic or not, but certainly from a political perspective, I don't think the Biden administration wants that heat. So there's a, there's a lot of shit happening that's very interesting. We haven't even touched on Harry and Meghan yet. God. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs) That's the big distraction.
- MBMike Baker
That's the big distraction right there. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
There's a war room, apparently, in England where they're, they're trying to figure out what to do.
- MBMike Baker
Oh, really?
- JRJoe Rogan
I heard they ... Did you hear about that?
- NANarrator
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes.
- NANarrator
How?
- JRJoe Rogan
There's a war room.
- MBMike Baker
I, I think I tuned out.
- NANarrator
What did I hear?
- JRJoe Rogan
The royals-
- MBMike Baker
War room.
- JRJoe Rogan
... have got ... They're, they're about to go to war.
- MBMike Baker
Ah. Well, the, the wanker has ... You know, he is put out this book, uh, Spare, or whatever it's called. Um, you know, I guess everybody falls down one side or the other. Do you support Harry and Meghan? Do you not? You know-
- JRJoe Rogan
Here it is. Royals set up a war room-
- MBMike Baker
(laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
... to discuss Prince Harry's memoir.
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) That's great. (laughs)
- JRJoe Rogan
A war room.
- MBMike Baker
I do like that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. What? A fucking war room?
- MBMike Baker
Full disclosure, I, I, I do think Harry's a wanker, but, um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Well ...
- MBMike Baker
You know?
- JRJoe Rogan
He seems to be.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
And it seems like, uh, that lady is a temptress, she's a siren, she's lured-
- MBMike Baker
Ooh. She's a tem-
- 48:24 – 53:36
Life math and mental bandwidth: aging, parenting, and avoiding needless complexity
- JRJoe Rogan
How much time-
- MBMike Baker
You know?
- JRJoe Rogan
... do you think you got left?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, God.
- JRJoe Rogan
Would you really wanna do that?
- MBMike Baker
Do you ever think about that?
- JRJoe Rogan
Sure.
- MBMike Baker
I mean, do you ever do the math and you think-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
... "What have you got?"
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, yeah.
- MBMike Baker
I think you really do it when you have kids, I think, and-
- JRJoe Rogan
I, I just think it's a smart thing to do anyway, just to, like, think about if you enjoy what you're doing. You know?
- MBMike Baker
I just hope I live long enough to figure out your fucking lighter from my cigars.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
But I think it's, um... I do think about it, and I think about it because I got young kids now.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
And, uh, and, you know, I wanna live... You know, I want every fucking year I can get. And I know some people say, "Well, I, I, I gotta go when I'm 80, that's fine." And I think, no, I wanna squeeze every bit of life out of this thing. And, um, but I do, I do the math all the time. When I'm however old, my k- youngest kid will be this old, and hey.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
... you know, it's-
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, you have adult children, too.
- MBMike Baker
I do. I have a daughter who's-
- JRJoe Rogan
So, you've got, like-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... two sort of, two groups.
- MBMike Baker
I, I do.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- MBMike Baker
Two, yeah, two groups. Not at the same time.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
I legitimately got divorced and, you know-
- 53:36 – 1:01:31
From CIA to business rules: Baker’s book and decision-making with imperfect information
- JRJoe Rogan
Why'd you get out?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, 'cause my daughter was, uh, getting older and I needed to be home, uh, 'cause I was... Uh, at that point, it was just me and her. Um, and it was time to figure something else out. Um, and so, uh, yeah. But I, I just think there was, there was something about that job on the operations side that I found just very easy, right? To compartmentalize. Some people found it very difficult in the terms of the sort of like, I don't know, whether they were thinking of moral quandary in terms of what we were doing and, "I don't know if this is..." You know, I just never thought... You know, just, just tell me what the objective is, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
Give that information to me. You know? Let's point ourselves in the right direction and just do it. Now let's move on to the next task. So I, I tend to be very simplistic when it comes to, uh, that. And I think that helped with the, the, the business. I never sat around, you know, staring at my fucking naval wondering, you know, where I fit in in terms of the big machine of the intelligence community.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm. Well, that makes for a good company man.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah, I think so.
- JRJoe Rogan
A good operative.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. Yeah. I think it, I think it's... If you just simplify things down that way (laughs) and, uh, no one ever accused me of being a really big, deep thinker, right? So I'm good with that. Um, but, uh, as a matter of fact, this leads us into a very interesting subject, which is-
- JRJoe Rogan
What? How the CIA killed Kennedy? (laughs)
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) No, I'm about to-
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
I'm about to spend 10 seconds promoting a book that's about to be released.
- JRJoe Rogan
Oh.
- MBMike Baker
Oh, I know. I know this is shameful, but I thought, let, let... I'm gonna get it in here and then get out of it and we can go back to more interesting things. But on the, uh, on the 18th of January, uh, Scribd, S-C-R-I-B-D, is gonna be releasing a book called Company Rules, um-... d- it's my first venture into books. It's an audiobook, and so it's an easy listen. But the idea is ... It has nothing to do with the agency, right? It has nothing to do with-
- JRJoe Rogan
Did you read it?
- MBMike Baker
I did. I narrated it.
- JRJoe Rogan
Oh, that's good.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
That's good.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. I used a fake voice. I sounded like, uh, Gru from Despicable Me.
- JRJoe Rogan
(laughs)
- MBMike Baker
I just used that voice for the fuck of it. And, uh, it's, it ... So it has nothing to do with the agency. It's about business life, right? But what happened was, I got out. People were like, "Why are you leaving? And what the hell are you gonna do?" And as it turns out, over the years, it, it occurred to me that a lot of what I was doing in business were just some ideas that I had kind of settled with me from the agency days. So, that's, that's where the Company Rules comes up. But frankly, there's no, there's no book of company rules. Look at that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Company Rules.
- MBMike Baker
(sighs)
- JRJoe Rogan
New from Mike Baker.
- MBMike Baker
Rrrrow.
- JRJoe Rogan
So, what's in there?
- MBMike Baker
(laughs) So, there's just, you know, there's basically nine rules. Don't ... I, I couldn't come up with a 10th. I wasn't smart enough to come up with a 10th. So, there's, there's nine basic rules. Everything ... You start out from, you know, um, define your mission, right? That's pretty much the first one. It's kinda like what we talked about. So, in business, you know, it's not just saying, "Okay, our mission is make money." Right? You've gotta, so you've gotta define your mission, then you've gotta clarify, you gotta sp- explain (laughs) it to your personnel. I'm a big believer in, once you do that, hire smart people, get the hell out of the way, right? And that's worked out very well. But there's other, there's other principles in there. How do you make a decision, uh, with imperfect information? That's one thing that, that the agency ... You're not really realizing it at the time. But you, you realize when you're in there, and then you leave, that, you know what the agency's very good at, is, is teaching people to just get off the ax, make a decision.
- JRJoe Rogan
W- what do you mean by how you make a decision with imperfect information?
- MBMike Baker
Well-
- 1:01:31 – 1:19:40
Deep state, apolitical intelligence, and conspiracy claims: JFK, MLK, and credibility standards
- JRJoe Rogan
I think the thing that people are, uh, weirded out by when it comes to intelligence agencies in this day and age is that they kind of act autonomously. They kind of act outside of what we think of as the government. We, you know, like, we think of the government as being a bunch of people that get elected, and those people do the, the rule of the people.
- MBMike Baker
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
- JRJoe Rogan
But the, the people that are in the intelligence agencies, they, they're there forever. And that's the, the term the deep state that everybody's so concerned with.
- MBMike Baker
(sighs)
- JRJoe Rogan
Right? That, that's a, a common phrase that's been brought up over the last, you know, decade or so, where people are very concerned about the deep state, that there's a government, that it has its own rules and its own ability to enact things that are outside of, uh, elected officials and, and-
- MBMike Baker
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
... the, the will of the people.
- MBMike Baker
Yeah. And I, and I, and I can see why people think that way, um, having been behind the curtain for all that time. Um, I guess there's, there's two parts to this, is one is never say never, right? I mean, I, I, you never want to discount the idea that, that, um, the intel community or law enforcement or whatever could, you know, uh, essentially develop a mind of its own, work, uh, separate from whatever government administration the people think they've elected into office. So never, never say that couldn't happen, because you always want to be wary of that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
I've, I've spent enough time overseas in, in places where that happens, right? Every ... And, and it, and, and worse than that is where, you know, a dictator comes in. He goes out, wholesale cleaning, and then he ... the new guy brings in all his people, right? And they're just basically doing the will. Now, in a way, that's more transparent, right? Because (laughs) you, you know what you're getting, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
You're getting that guy's intel service or that guy's law enforcement. Um, but having worked behind the curtain, um, at least the time that I was there, the agency was uniquely apolitical, right? I, I ... All the people that I traveled around the world with or the people that I met, worked with, in various parts, we never talked about politics. It was just not, it was not an issue. We never-
- JRJoe Rogan
Do you think that changed-
- MBMike Baker
We never discussed that shit.
- JRJoe Rogan
... during Trump?
- MBMike Baker
I think, uh, I think it was probably even before Trump. I think it's just been a process where, uh ... And I, I have no idea why. Maybe in part because ... (sighs) No, I don't know. I was gonna say because it's become a little more transitory. You know, in the old days, uh, whatever the old days are, you know, through the Cold War and whatever, '70s and early '80s, people would join and, and, you know, the idea was, "I'm here for good. I'm gonna retire," you know?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- MBMike Baker
And, and now it's, you know, somewhat of a stepping stone to other things. And, and so it, people move through these organizations on their way to somewhere else. And, and maybe that creates, you know, um, some of this. But I don't want to say it couldn't happen. I just want to say, yeah, it, it's, it's something you have to be always aware of. I think that there have been individuals in various offices who got too close or too comfortable with political access. Um, like with the CIA, you always want your director to have a, a, a good line of communication with the president, right? It used to be more important when the agency, when the director had a, a seat at the table, right? Now they pushed below the DNI. So the DNI is the guy that talks and, and the agency director doesn't have the same access that they used to have.
- JRJoe Rogan
When did that change?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, after 9/11. You know, when they re- created the, you know, the homel- Homeland Security became, uh, the buzzword and, you know, how do we reorganize because, you know, clearly it was, it was a f- fucking knee-jerk reaction to 9/11, was the idea was, "Oh, uh, f- something happened. We fucked up, so now let's reorganize the entire thing," right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- MBMike Baker
And so they tossed a baby out of the 30th floor and, and, uh, um ... It wasn't an actual baby. People are gonna be, like, making notes, you know. "We must-"
- JRJoe Rogan
They get it, baby-
- MBMike Baker
Find the baby.
- JRJoe Rogan
... with the bathwater.
- MBMike Baker
Find a baby. And, uh, and so then they created this DNI position and, and they kind of subject-
- JRJoe Rogan
What's DNI stand for?
- MBMike Baker
Uh, Director of National Intelligence. And so then they subjugated the, subjugated the CIA director below that. But the point being is you want that access. Well, y- you know, if it gets too cozy or if the person in charge, whether it's the agency or the FBI or whoever, becomes too much of a political animal, now you got a problem, right? And that's when bad things can happen. Um, but the, the career people that I dealt with, that I met with over the years and the people who I still know, the career people, they, you know, for the most part, they, they just want to do the job, right? And I know people are gonna say, "Well, of course that's what you're gonna say," and I say that all the time, but fuck it. It's, it's what I saw, so I gotta ... You know, I'm not, I'm not blowing smoke up anybody's ass, but ...
- JRJoe Rogan
When you see shit like, uh-
- MBMike Baker
(sighs)
Episode duration: 2:37:06
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Transcript of episode i6wTyVfDe8A
