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Timothy Davis: How Shopify validates new ad platforms fast

Through signs of life tests on 1% Meta lookalikes, Shopify proves a paid channel; agencies kickstart the work, then internal teams own the playbook fast.

Lenny RachitskyhostTimothy DavisguestChristina (OneSchema CEO/founder)guest
Jul 27, 20241h 42mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Shopify’s Timothy Davis Reveals How To Win With Paid Growth

  1. Timothy Davis, who leads performance marketing at Shopify, breaks down how companies of all stages should approach paid growth and performance marketing. He argues that “paid is for everyone,” with search as a near-universal starting point, and shares how to run low-risk “signs of life” tests across platforms. Davis dives into tactics for targeting, creative, measurement, attribution, incrementality, and how to interpret dense ad-platform data. He also explains when to hire agencies vs. in‑house talent, how to structure a performance team, and which emerging channels are worth exploring.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Start almost every company with paid search, then layer disruptive channels.

Davis believes “paid is for everyone,” but recommends user-intent driven Google Search as the baseline channel, then adding disruptive media like Meta, YouTube, TikTok, and others once you have creative and product fit.

Use ‘signs of life’ tests and your own data to validate platforms.

Begin with small-budget experiments using lookalike audiences built from your existing customers (e.g., 1% Meta lookalikes) and test upward; if you see promising early signals, invest in proper campaigns rather than prematurely scaling or abandoning the channel.

Creative quality and platform-native format matter far more than most teams assume.

You often can’t simply port creatives across platforms (e.g., Meta to TikTok); emotional, memorable, video-first creative tailored to each user context is a major performance driver and frequently under-invested in.

Treat agencies as catalysts, not crutches, and plan to internalize key skills.

Agencies often run generic playbooks and don’t go deep enough into data, structure, and experimentation; use them to get started, but set clear spend milestones (e.g., ~$50k/month) where you hire in-house specialists and shift ownership.

Obsess over signal versus noise when analyzing performance data.

With overwhelming metrics available (CPC, CTR, impressions, reach, etc.), focus on the ones tied to the campaign goal (e.g., conversions vs. awareness) and use platform diagnostics (quality score, ad strength, auction insights) to locate and fix the true “holes in the ship.”

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

Hot take, paid is for everyone.

Timothy Davis

Instead of thinking about being on top of the page, it’s about showing to the right person as often as possible.

Timothy Davis

We’re either winning or we’re learning.

Timothy Davis

I can teach anyone how to do Google Ads… It is the data part that is the hard part.

Timothy Davis

At baseline, everyone should be doing paid search.

Timothy Davis

Definition and scope of performance marketing vs. paid growthWhen and how different businesses should invest in paid channelsRunning effective ‘signs of life’ tests on new platformsChoosing and prioritizing platforms (Google, Meta, LinkedIn, TikTok, CTV, podcasts)Using data, reporting, and platform signals to optimize campaignsAttribution, incrementality, and measuring true impact of adsBuilding and scaling an in-house performance marketing team

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