Modern WisdomAre Incels A Threat To Society? - William Costello
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 3:30
Mating crisis framed through childfree “girlboss” culture and corporate incentives
The conversation opens with a Bloomberg profile of affluent, childfree single women and uses it to frame a broader “mating crisis.” Costello argues the cultural ideal of success has shifted toward a male-coded, career-first template and suggests corporate messaging reinforces this trajectory.
- •Bloomberg story as a cultural symbol of rising single, childfree lifestyles
- •Forecasts of increasing single/childfree women and what that implies
- •Corporate incentives: labor markets, long work weeks, and delayed family formation
- •A “Brave New World”/atomization analogy: sex, travel, and attachment avoidance
- •Early link to incels as downstream victims of broader mating dynamics
- 3:30 – 7:18
Why the “male default” is spreading: backlash, individualism, and evolutionary novelty
Chris probes why women are encouraged toward traditionally masculine-coded traits and priorities. Costello frames it as a predictable backlash to historical constraints plus a modern, individualistic environment that is evolutionarily novel.
- •Cultural push toward independence, status, and casual attitudes to sex
- •Backlash to historical socioeconomic constraints on women
- •Reduced interdependence between men and women compared to the past
- •Atomization in big cities and weakened kin/community structures
- •Modern mating environment as a new, unstable equilibrium
- 7:18 – 10:04
Motherhood devalued and sexual revolution pushback
They criticize rhetoric that frames motherhood as inferior and celebrate critiques of loveless sex as “empowerment.” Costello discusses the “myth of maternal instinct” debate and reframes maternal behavior as a suite of context-sensitive instincts.
- •Critique of messaging that mothers are “second-class”
- •Louise Perry-style argument: casual/loveless sex benefits men more than women
- •Media framing of motherhood and maternal instinct controversies
- •Maternal instincts as conditional, not a single on/off drive
- •Moral and cultural consequences of redefining female success
- 10:04 – 13:26
Are there female incels? Disgust sensitivity and cross-sex mind-reading failures
Costello addresses whether women who can’t find desirable mates qualify as “incels,” noting femcels are rarer but not nonexistent. He argues men often misunderstand that “something is better than nothing” doesn’t hold for women due to higher costs and disgust responses.
- •Femcels are harder to find/measure; definitional debates
- •Men’s ‘anything is better than nothing’ assumption vs women’s mating costs
- •Female sexual disgust as a key psychological mechanism
- •Prostitution anecdote and emotional detachment as coping
- •Study idea: control over environment moderates disgust responses
- 13:26 – 16:19
Standards, marriage expectations, and possible status reassignments
They explore whether women’s standards are “too high” and why ‘just lower standards’ isn’t realistic advice. Costello draws on modern marriage expectations becoming more demanding and suggests status can be culturally reassigned—though change is slow.
- •Modern marriage as “all-or-nothing”: spouse must meet many roles
- •Higher socioeconomic couples fare better; lower-income couples face more strain
- •Status is flexible: cultures can reward different traits (e.g., ‘biggest yam’)
- •Stay-at-home dads remain low-demand in stated female preferences
- •Men’s ‘obligation for success’ vs women’s broader life-path choices
- 16:19 – 18:49
Is hypergamy declining—and what are the downstream effects?
Costello argues hypergamy may decline as women’s education and earnings rise, forcing more “mating down,” but this doesn’t necessarily increase happiness. He connects this shift to rising female infidelity and relationship instability, plus possible links to partner violence dynamics.
- •Definition of hypergamy and why structural changes pressure it downward
- •Evidence: hypergamy decline doesn’t imply women feel satisfied ‘mating down’
- •Female infidelity rising while male infidelity stays relatively stable
- •Possible mechanisms: workplace exposure, anonymity, reduced dependency
- •EU data: women out-earning partners linked to higher reports of IPV (interpretive lens)
- 18:49 – 35:26
Young male syndrome, monogamy as social tech, and online “pacifiers”
They zoom out to societal risk: surplus unpartnered men can destabilize societies (young male syndrome). Costello suggests modern digital substitutes—porn and online status games—may partially pacify the threat, while monogamy historically reduced conflict by spreading mating opportunities more evenly.
- •Young male syndrome as a cross-cultural destabilizer
- •Media may overstate incel violence relative to broader risk landscape
- •Porn/online status as ‘counterfeit fitness cues’ and a sedating effect
- •Henrich’s argument: monogamous marriage fosters social stability via distribution
- •Cultural narratives once constrained both male and female sexual behavior
- 35:26 – 35:33
Ethical ‘charm’ and male self-improvement vs adversarial gender politics
From Darwin’s quote on charming females, they discuss how attraction strategies have shifted away from physical conflict toward social skill and self-development. They criticize tribal “red pill” blame narratives and argue for ethical self-improvement that understands women’s perspective.
- •Darwin framing: charm can matter more than male-male combat
- •Cultural backlash against men self-improving ‘to get the girl’
- •Need for ethical, non-manipulative pickup/self-improvement
- •Critique of adversarial framing: men and women as allies, not enemies
- •Evolutionary psychology as a ‘cheat code’ for interpreting behavior
- 35:33 – 35:40
Leonardo DiCaprio’s girlfriends: age gaps, mate copying, and hidden competition
They unpack Costello’s viral graph showing DiCaprio’s partners staying ~25 while he ages. The discussion highlights evolved preferences, mate-choice copying, and how age-gap critique can be partly explained by intersexual competition and social signaling.
- •Graph pattern: Leo ages up, girlfriends’ ages remain near a fixed point
- •Critiques often invoke ‘incest disgust’ language (e.g., ‘old enough to be her father’)
- •Intersexual competition and reputational strategies in discourse
- •Mate-choice copying: a woman’s endorsement raises perceived male mate value
- •Signals and status dynamics: older-partner framing vs fertility-based preferences
- 35:40 – 43:14
Incels: evolutionary mismatch, meaning of childlessness, and alternative belonging
Costello explains why mating problems are evolutionarily central and why modern conditions are “STRANGELY WEIRD” compared to ancestral environments. They discuss that incels are not only sexless but involuntarily childless, and explore whether pets/adoption or friendship networks can buffer loneliness.
- •Evolutionary mismatch in mating; STRANGELY WEIRD acronym and modern conditions
- •Rejection feels catastrophic due to ancestral reputation and limited mate pools
- •Inceldom includes involuntary childlessness and loss of meaning
- •Possibility of non-romantic belonging: friends, pets, adoption (underexplored)
- •Research note: incels often lack friendships, intensifying distress
- 43:14 – 49:19
Common traits of incels: victimhood mindset, mental health, and distorted beliefs
Costello details empirical findings on incel psychology: high neuroticism, loneliness, depression/anxiety, and a ‘tendency for interpersonal victimhood.’ He emphasizes the role of rumination, low agency (external locus of control), and pessimism about permanent inceldom.
- •Victimhood scale dimensions: recognition need, moral elitism, lack of empathy, rumination
- •External locus of control tied to ‘black pill’ hopelessness
- •Very high depression/anxiety/loneliness and low life satisfaction in samples
- •Belief inceldom is permanent predicts worse mental health
- •Sex-saturated culture vs reality: people overestimate others’ sexual activity
- 49:19 – 58:26
Are incels a terrorist threat? Media framing, self-hatred, and suicide risk
They challenge the framing of incels primarily as an extremist violence threat, arguing the death toll is relatively small and media narratives can be misleading. Costello contends the more ‘extreme’ outcome is suicidality, consistent with incels’ self-directed hostility.
- •Political/ethnic breakdowns don’t match common stereotypes (more mixed than assumed)
- •Studies suggest racism is a small share of posts; misogyny higher; self-hatred most common
- •Case studies: Minassian and Davison and how official findings complicate ‘incel terror’ narratives
- •No-notoriety protocols and risks of amplifying attackers
- •Extremity expressed as suicidality more than organized terrorism
- 58:26 – 1:08:25
Fakecels, forum dynamics, and the mixed impact of online communities
They examine how incel forums can both reduce loneliness and intensify hopelessness. Costello explains ‘fakecel’ policing, how identity benefits can trap members, and data showing forum use modestly predicts anxiety with varied effects on wellbeing.
- •‘Fakecel’ accusations and social penalties for attempting to ‘ascend’
- •Identity benefits: belonging, fraternity, and ‘virtuous victimhood’
- •Forum use: some report improved wellbeing, others worsened, many unsure
- •Black pill permanency beliefs correlate with depression and low satisfaction
- •A small minority of accounts generate most extreme hostility content
- 1:08:25 – 1:25:10
Social media/dating apps, sex ratios, and the broader consequences of the mating crisis
They connect online dating and social media to intensified status competition, repeated rejection, and perceptions of competing with top-tier men. Costello cites research predicting incel activity by local income inequality, gender pay gap patterns, and male-biased sex ratios, then closes on population and societal implications.
- •Apps scale status competition and magnify rejection frequency
- •Objective status metrics (followers/likes) and ‘LMS’ (looks-money-status) shorthand
- •Height filters and narrowed pools; top men capturing disproportionate attention
- •Geographic predictors of incel activity: inequality, low gender pay gaps, male-biased sex ratios
- •Consequences: loneliness, declining fertility, societal instability; few clear solutions
- 1:25:10 – 1:25:59
Wrap-up: where to follow William Costello
Chris closes by praising Costello’s work and directing listeners to his online presence. Costello shares his primary platform for updates and research posts.
- •Twitter as main channel for Costello’s research and commentary
- •Handle shared for audience follow-up
- •Final thanks and podcast outro
