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CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 2:32
The Silver Tsunami: Living Longer Than Expected
Sam Parr introduces the silver tsunami, and Steph Smith explains that lifespans have risen two to three years per decade. She says this affects pensions, nursing homes, healthcare and the young people who support the old.
- •Average lifespan has grown two to three years every decade
- •Our World In Data life expectancy charts show a shift around 1900
- •The trend affects pensions, nursing homes and healthcare
- •Steph calls the topic overlooked
- 2:32 – 6:05
Longevity Stats: Japan Survival Odds and Retirement Math
Steph quizzes Sam on survival odds for a girl born in Japan in 2020 and cites the most common age of death in the UK. They discuss how longer lives change retirement saving, and Steph notes diseases of despair explain America's lag.
- •UK's most common age of death went from year one in 1965 to 87 today
- •A Japanese girl born in 2020 has a 96% chance of reaching 60
- •Saving for 30 years of retirement instead of 10 changes the calculus
- •Diseases of despair explain America's longevity lag
- 6:05 – 7:12
Healthcare Spending and Dialysis Costs
Sam asks about the stat comparing government spending on NASA with spending on longevity. Steph says healthcare is about 20% of GDP and dialysis alone takes 0.8% of the US budget, about three times NASA.
- •Healthcare is roughly 20% of GDP
- •0.8% of the US budget goes to kidney dialysis, about three times NASA
- •Medicare spends over $50 billion a year on dialysis and related care
- 7:12 – 10:57
Menopause as an Overlooked Market
Steph presents menopause as a business opportunity, noting about 6,000 US women reach it every day. She compares it to pregnancy and period-tracking apps like Flo, and says few founders focus on it.
- •Cardiovascular mortality reverses between men and women after about 55
- •Around 6,000 women in the US hit menopause every day
- •Flo reports over 380 million users
- •Few female or over-50 entrepreneurs are building here
- 10:57 – 14:52
Nursing Growth, Japan's Early Case, and Free Akiya Houses
Sam raises a one-chart stat that nursing will be the fastest growing occupation, and Steph ties it to aging populations. They discuss why Japan hit the silver tsunami first, its free akiya houses, and the Osaka age-fraud hypothesis.
- •Nursing is projected to be the fastest growing occupation from 2020 to 2030
- •Japan's nursing homes rose nearly 50% in a decade
- •Japan hit a declining birth rate earlier
- •Over 8 million akiyas are given away or sold cheaply
- •Sam mentions a hypothesis that Osaka residents misreported birth dates
- 14:52 – 22:34
Assisted Living Economics and a Premium Revival Concept
Steph reads a Numlock stat on rising assisted living prices and high operator margins. They discuss why startups haven't tackled the space, and Steph pitches a premium assisted living model built around fitness revival, citing Peter Attia and Robert Marchand.
- •Median assisted living price is $54,000 a year, up 31% faster than inflation
- •Half of operators clear returns of 20% or more
- •Founders rarely build for problems they haven't experienced
- •Steph imagines a 'revival' facility focused on VO2 max and fitness
- •Robert Marchand was still cycling at 101 to 105
- 22:34 – 27:36
Can Fitness Culture Reach Beyond the Coasts? The Case for '30 Moderate'
Sam doubts that fitness and longevity businesses will catch on outside coastal bubbles. Steph argues there is room for an approachable program, a 'moderate' alternative to 75 Hard, and shares how long it took her to enjoy running.
- •Sam says fitness is part of coastal culture but not everywhere
- •Steph says the audience gravitates to hard challenges like 75 Hard and Strava PBs
- •She suggests an approachable program, like moving three miles a day
- •It took Steph a year and a half of running to enjoy it
- 27:36 – 38:21
Idea: A Strava for CGMs
Steph explains Dexcom's over-the-counter Stelo CGM and her own use of it. She pitches a Strava-style social layer for glucose data and a loss-leader business, and they discuss the Glucose Goddess and the Wearable Challenge.
- •Dexcom's Stelo is the first over-the-counter FDA-approved CGM
- •Steph proposes socializing and competing on glucose metrics
- •The Glucose Goddess has 5 million Instagram followers and a new Anti Spike product
- •A free Stelo could be a loss leader for coaching, gym and CGM upsells
- •Justin Mayer's Wearable Challenge refunded $30 for each day under a glucose threshold
- 38:21 – 44:26
Nerd Neck and Posture Solutions
Steph explains how bad health data pushed her into health tracking, then turns to her forward head posture. They go over BetterBack, the Form sports bra, exercises from Bryan Johnson, and Sam's story about standing posture from a TED Talk.
- •Steph's high cholesterol on a Q Bio scan changed her view of being skinny
- •Nerd neck, or forward head posture, comes from hunching over screens
- •BetterBack is a strap from knees to back that encourages sitting up
- •Steph says posture depends on abdominal and back strength
- •Sam recalls a TED talk on squeezing glutes and flexing abs when standing
- 44:26 – 50:49
Niche Sports: Pickleball, TekeBall, Padel and Everesting
Steph offers a frame for new sports: make a sport easier, as pickleball did, or harder, as TekeBall does. They discuss padel and Everesting, and Sam says he may attempt a 29029 event.
- •Pickleball made tennis more accessible by changing the ball, court and paddle
- •TekeBall mixes soccer and ping pong and is made for shareable freak-of-nature clips
- •Padel is blowing up and is like tennis with an in-play wall
- •Everesting means repeating a hill until you equal climbing Everest
- •Sam says the 29029 event is built so only about 25% finish
- 50:49 – 54:59
Running, Height and Living to 120
Steph and Sam discuss her half-marathon goal, and Sam argues that height is not a real excuse for running pace. The conversation moves to whether tall people live long and whether living past 110 will become common.
- •Steph's half marathon goal is a nine-minute mile
- •Sam says stride length depends on force against the ground, not height
- •Sam worries there are few examples of tall people living very long
- •More people reaching 100 should mean more reaching 110 or 120
- 54:59 – 57:19
Life Feels Short and the Smile Curve
Sam reflects on how short 100 years feels, especially as a new father. Steph introduces the smile curve of happiness, and Sam gives his interpretation about what people care about at different ages.
- •Sam says watching his daughter grow makes 100 years feel short
- •Steph describes the smile curve: happiness dips in mid-life and rises with age
- •Sam says people care about status in their 30s and 40s
- •Steph says people learn what to care about and what not to
- 57:19 – 59:34
Internet Pipes Shout-Out and Wrap-Up
Steph thanks listeners for the six-figure result from her Internet Pipes mention on a previous episode and describes it as a community with quirky events. Sam compares it to Trends, and they set up the discount code 'Sam'.
- •Steph says the earlier mention led to six figures in revenue
- •Internet Pipes is a one-time purchase that gives community access and events
- •Monthly emails cover themes like longevity and Japan
- •Steph frames Internet Pipes as tools to surface your own trends
- •The discount code is 'Sam'
