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60 min read · 12,068 words- 0:00 – 7:10
Silver tsunami
- SPSam Parr
All right, we're live with Steph Smith. Steph Smith, this is your eighth time on the podcast. Is that right?
- SSSteph Smith
I know. It's wild. Yes.
- SPSam Parr
You sent me a document in advance, and it had a bunch of stuff, but there was one topic that caught my eye. It's called the Silver Tsunami, which basically just means that we are living way longer than expected. If it's cool with you, I kind of just wanna talk about that topic this entire time, because, like, there was so many stats here that kind of shocked me. [upbeat music] Give me the background. Tell, tell the listener the background. What's the silver tsunami, and what's, like, the one-sentence summary of this entire topic?
- SSSteph Smith
I mean, the, the simplest summary is just we're expected to live way, way later, and I think there's this kind of misconception that we've hit some sort of basically plateau in aging, right? So in the last, I think, several decades, the stat is for every decade we've added two to three years to the average lifespan, which means that, you know, we are expected to grow older compared to our parents, compared to their parents, et cetera, et cetera, right? So you can just go to... I mean, the simplest way to look at it is if you just go to Our World In Data life expectancy, you can see around 1900 something fundamentally changes, and we're just growing way, way older. That has to do with child mortality, but also just, again, extending that maybe, like, 50-year period. And so what that means is that, you know, you have this cohort of people, you called it the silver tsunami, who are just gonna be around for a lot longer than maybe people expected, and that impacts tons of things. That impacts, you know, the pensions that people were expecting. It impacts the kind of nursing homes you need. It impacts the kind of healthcare people think about, you know, in that later age. Um, it impacts, like, a lot of young people who then, you know, at least in theory, have to support those old people. And so this whole, um, silver tsunami is a little bit overlooked.
- SPSam Parr
So all right. So I wanna go through the story. So the story of what has changed and the story of what to expect in the next, uh... Well, I guess if you're listening to this, you're probably at least 18 years old all the way up to 80 years old, so for... But let's just say the average. Let's just say the average is 25 to 35 years old. If you're in that demographic, what to expect. And then after that, we'll go through the different business opportunities or potential issues and other things like that that might exist if all this comes to fruition.
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah. So maybe let's start with a really simple stat. Um, I got this from a book called Longevity Imperative that I read recently. Um, and he's from the UK, so he us- uses UK data here. But he says in, in the UK in 1965, the most common age of death was the first year. Um, that's perhaps not surprising. But today, the most common age to die is 87. So that's a really simple just encapsulation of how things have completely flipped on, on their side. But then let's move on to maybe cohort data. So I'd like you to guess the chance of a newborn girl in Japan as of 2020 data. What is their chance of living till 20?
- SPSam Parr
Close to 100%. Uh, 98?
- SSSteph Smith
So 99.6% chance. Now guess the same for living to 40.
- SPSam Parr
To 40? Uh, 95... 90%.
- SSSteph Smith
99. And the chance of m- making it to 60.
- SPSam Parr
98? No, no, no, that's too high. 95 again.
- SSSteph Smith
96%. So if you think about it, a, a woman in Japan, uh, born in 2020 or as of 2020 data, has a 96% chance of making it to 60. That's, like, pretty close to 100%. Obviously, that's not 100%, but the point is your calculus changes when you, when you fundamentally expect to live to 60.
- SPSam Parr
So what... Whenever I think about my life, it's kind of messed up. So I actually think that, like, I'm only gonna live to be 75, which means at the age of 35, I'm nearly halfway through my life. But then when I, like, calculate... So I do this weird thing with my net worth where I edit in these calculators and I'm like, "All right, at this, if I have what I have now and it grows at 8% a year, that means at the age of 40 I'll have this, at the age of 50 I'll have this." And then I'll drag it out to, like, 110, and I'm like, "Holy crap, at, at age 110 I'm gonna have this." And, like, the number's just, like, massive, right? And so in some ways, I assume I'm gonna live to be, like, 110. In other ways, I assume I'm gonna live to be 75, which is actually totally, uh... That range is problematic. What ages do people like you and me, so we, we do a lot of stuff that is good for our health and we have resources, what are we gonna live to then?
- SSSteph Smith
Well, I think, yeah, the... even just, like, the average, uh, lifespan in America is long- longer than 75. But I mean, in theory, it's gonna be a range, but that's part of the complexity here where... So Sam, you're also thinking about this from the perspective of, like, you've sold a company, you have a nest egg, and so you can imagine how that nest egg grows over time. But you imagine the flip side for, like, the average American who expects to retire at 65. Well, if you're only expecting to live to 75, then you can, can probably save up for 10 years of life. But as soon as you're living to 85, maybe even 95, like, then you are, in theory, having to save up for 30 years of life, um, and the way that, again, like, our economics, real estate, all of that isn't really set up for people living substantially longer. And by the way, the last thing I'll say there is one thing that I was surprised by in the book is, one, so this isn't surprising. America is falling behind some of the other, like, G7 nations ar- around longevity. But I thought it was because generally people were dying earlier. Um, but it's actually due to these things called diseases of despair. So just, like, alcoholism, um, drugs, et cetera. But if you remove those- Americans are living just as long as, you know, the, the comparable nations
- SPSam Parr
And so what are some other crazy stats around this? Because you, you had some, like, ridiculous stuff. So like, for example, you said something like, um, America was spending some absurd number for, uh, NASA in getting to the moon, which is awesome. I'm in favor of that. And then you-
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
... compared it to how much they were spending for, uh, longevity or expanding life, and it was like a fraction of the amount. Is that, is that true?
- SSSteph Smith
Well, so I think there's a couple different stats there. So America, I think like healthcare is like 20% of GDP, which is huge. Um, but I think the stat specifically that you were looking at was shared on Twitter. Um, and it was basically that 0.8% of the US budget is spent on kidney dialysis, which was basically three times NASA. So all these people need dialysis. It's like, I think Medicare spends over $50 billion annually on dialysis and other related treatments, which is just wild. Um, and it's, I think, an example of how, you know, like when health goes awry and all these people are living to old age, the budget that's required for it is just blowing
- 7:10 – 10:57
Perimenopause = 6k new customers a day
- SSSteph Smith
up.
- SPSam Parr
And so what are the opportunities here?
- SSSteph Smith
Let's start with one that maybe the MFM listener base won't be super stoked on, maybe the four female listeners, but one really interesting one is menopause. So menopause is when women's ovaries stop working, so it obviously impacts anyone with ovaries, um, once you get to a certain point. And here's an interesting stat, um, again, from that book. Below the age of 55, cardiovascular illness, um, is a more likely cause of mortality in men. And then after 55, again, around that menopause stage, it basically reverses. Because what menopause is, is like... I'm obviously oversimplifying. It's just like an ex- a super, super accelerated aging period for women.
- SPSam Parr
What age does that typically happen? 50?
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah, around like 50 or 60, like in that, that range. I think sometimes even earlier, sometimes in 40s, but I haven't hit it yet, so, um, [laughs] not, haven't experienced it firsthand. But what happens, because it's like kind of a fundamentally, your hormones are changing, one of your most significant organs is just no longer producing eggs, your body ends up having all these symptoms. People often refer to thor- 34 symptoms of menopause. And just due to the nature of, like you could say, TAM, 6,000 women in the U- US hit menopause every single day. So if you think about people who all of a sudden are facing this thing that they've never faced before, kind of like pregnancy. And interestingly, there's all these companies that are oriented around people getting pregnant and having that done successfully. There's apps like Flo. There's, um-
- SPSam Parr
Dude, Flo is a massive business, isn't it?
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah, I mean, at least even publicly on their site, they say over 380 million people use it.
- SPSam Parr
And what's Flo do?
- SSSteph Smith
So Flo is a period tracking app, or at least that's how they started. But also, I think they've expanded and, um... Like even when you track your period, I use it, right? It'll give you suggestions on like, are you bloated or like, you, should you be eating this, this, or this. Um, it's actually pretty simplistic, but 380 million people use it because it's just like, again, the TAM [laughs] is so big of people who care about this thing. [upbeat music]
- SPSam Parr
All right, so a lot of people watch and listen to this show because they wanna hear us just tell them exactly what to do when it comes to starting or growing a business. And really a lot of people who are listening, they have a full-time job and they wanna start something on the side, a side hustle. Now, a lot of people message Shaan and I and they say, "All right, I wanna start something on the side. Is this a good idea? Is that a good idea?" And again, what they're really just saying is, "Just give me the ideas." Well, my friends, you're in luck. So my old company, The Hustle, they put together 100 different side hustle ideas, and they have appropriately called it The Side Hustle Idea Database. It's a list of 100 pretty good ideas, frankly. I went through them. They're awesome. And it gives you how to start them, how to grow them, things like that. Gives you a little bit of inspiration. So check it out. It's called The Side Hustle Idea Database. It's in the description below. You'll see the link. Click it. Check it out. Let me know in the comments what you think. [upbeat music] And so where are the different opportunities you think in, with that?
- SSSteph Smith
I mean, there are some companies that have, uh, sprung up already. One of them is called Bonafide or Bonafide, another called Gennev. But basically, like all of the symptoms, the 34 of them that women start to face, like hot flashes. But that's just an example of where I think even just fundamentally, it's... There are less female entrepreneurs. There are less entrepreneurs over the age of 50, right, who are starting companies. And so I think it's a completely overlooked space because once people hit this age, they're not really trying to start a company, and then all the other people aren't really aware of how significant this transformation is for all of these women, for literally billions of women around the, around the world. And so I feel like it's just totally overlooked.
- 10:57 – 18:28
One chart opportunity: Nursing homes and assisted living
- SPSam Parr
You, there, there, uh, you know, we use this phrase one-chart businesses because you just see this chart and it like you said, well, there, that thing's obvious. Just get into that industry. You have one here. You say, "In the, uh, in the United States, um, the U- uh, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that nursing will be the fastest growing occupation between 2020 and 2030, growing in number by 275,000, uh, jobs." That's insane. That's insane. Talk to me about this nursing thing.
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah. Well, I mean, a- again, it's like a pretty f- clear trend that comes with a bunch of people getting, getting older. Like everyone's talking about AI, and that's great, um, but what about the billions of people around the globe that are, you know, 65 plus that are just gonna need physical human support? So nursing's one area. Also, the, the rest of that stat talks about in Japan, the number of nursing homes has risen nearly 50% over the last decade. And Japan is interesting because it's kind of like this early case study, um, where they've hit this Silver tsunami a little earlier [laughs] than, uh, a lot of other countries.
- SPSam Parr
Why has Japan hit this first? Like, uh, all these stats are, like, Japanese stuff is always referenced when it comes to getting old. Why Japan?
- SSSteph Smith
I think they just hit the declining birth rate earlier than many other countries. And so, you know, another interesting You could say an opportunity, maybe just an interesting thing for individuals to explore. But because Japan hit the, like, silver tsunami a little earlier, they have this interesting thing where they're giving away free houses, or super cheap houses, sometimes free. Um, they're called akiyas, A-K-I-Y-A. Um, I was in Japan this summer, and we did a walking tour, and they took us around, and they were showing us these houses, and they're like, "See this house?" And it was, like, in the middle of Osaka. It was a little run-down for sure. Um, but they were like, "This, this house is free." And we were like, "What do you [laughs] what do you mean?" But because there's so many of these people who have grown old, unfortunately passed away... And then there's also some social aspects of the akiyas where in some cases, not all, um, because Japanese people really care about status. If, let's say, they grew up in a poor neighborhood, their parents passed away, and then they've moved into, you know, a different social strata, um, they don't wanna claim the house because they're like, "I don't wanna be associated with that neighborhood." And there's over... There's tons of articles on this. Over 8 million akiyas that are being given away by the government, um, or again, sometimes for very cheap.
- SPSam Parr
S- well, have you heard the, uh, the theory about Osaka and how a lot of people are lying about their age?
- SSSteph Smith
Oh yeah, the blue zones and how...
- SPSam Parr
Yeah, there's a book called The Blue Zones, and basically, like, I read it 10 years ago or something, and I was like, "This is my bible for, like-"
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah
- SPSam Parr
... living a long, healthy life. Turns out, uh, now this is a, I believe a hypothesis. Uh, I don't know, like, what the, the... It's g- uh, I'm kind of regurgitating, like, a headline a little bit, so I, I would have to, like, actually research it to, to definitively say. But the idea is that someone studied Osaka's population, and they found that too many people claim to have the same birth date in Osaka-
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah
- SPSam Parr
... to the point where the only way that this could be possibly true is if many of them committed fraud in order to say that they are of a certain age so they can start receiving Social Security and other, like, benefits that you get when you hit a certain age. And so it potentially puts a lot of, like, this idea of we study this particular population for old health or, or, you know, old people and, like, looking at, like, wow, they're so healthy, when they're just liars, and they're actually a lot younger.
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
They're a lot younger potentially than they've said they are. What are some other stats about those? I love, I love talking to you because you just have, like... Y- you h- actually have the data and the stats instead of just, like, guessing.
- SSSteph Smith
Um, okay. So y- we didn't really drill down as much on the... I mean, you talked about nursing homes and assisted living.
- SPSam Parr
Tell me about that.
- SSSteph Smith
So let me give you one more from, um, Numlock, which by the way is a great newsletter. Walt Hickey runs it, and, um, people... I feel like MFM listeners would love it. It's great 'cause you talk about these one-chart businesses. I've done a thread on something similar, and I call them digits. But he calls them just numbers, right? So basically, every single day actually, he sends a newsletter of maybe five or so different just small paragraphs. And each paragraph has just, like, one statistic. And I like his because some of them are really important, like, you know, the silver tsunami and how that's gonna impact things much greater than ourselves. But then sometimes it's like there's this random gerbil that it has infested homes in South Carolina or something like that.
- SPSam Parr
This is awesome.
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah. Um, he sent this paragraph about assisted living. So let me just read this out. This is directly from Numlock. "From 2004 to 2021, the median annual price of assisted living increased 31% faster than inflation and has hit $54,000 per year." This is the crazy stat to me. "There are 31,000 assisted living facilities in the United States. Four out of every five are run as for-profits, and half of all the operators in the industry are clearing annual returns of 20% or more than it costs to operate. With 850,000 older Americans living within assisted living, the rents are getting jacked up."
- SPSam Parr
Uh, so I don't actually know how assisted living businesses are valued. Like, is it considered, like, a real estate valuation where it's just, like, a, a way to finance or pay for real estate? Or is it considered, like, a proper operating business? Like, I guess... You know how, like, hotels are classified as real estate.
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah, yeah.
- SPSam Parr
Uh, you know what I mean? So I, I would assume that's the, that's the case, of which 20% is, is fantastic. If 20% were operating profit on a, on a proper, like, uh, like, internet business, that's not that great. But if it's on real estate, that's really great. However, when I read this, I think, yeah, that's lucrative. I don't wanna-
- SSSteph Smith
No, I don't either
- SPSam Parr
... I don't wanna operate this.
- SSSteph Smith
I don't e- but you know what?
- SPSam Parr
This sounds like the worst thing ever. You'd have a funeral a day. You know what I mean?
- SSSteph Smith
Well, I mean, I think people are in this for quite some time, so you could say, again, purely from the business perspective, that you have this recurring revenue for years, you know, before obviously some eventual very unfortunate form of turn.
- SPSam Parr
I would love to invest in a nursing home fund, but I would not wanna operate a nursing home.
- SSSteph Smith
Well, what I'll say is, I mean, my... I have parents that are getting older, and there's also tons of assisted living for not just elderly, right? People with mental illness or who need other support, um, mental or physical. And I think what I've seen from, like, exploring this space anecdotally is that most of the options really suck, as in, like, you, you don't really feel great about sending your parent or loved one to these places. And so I, I haven't explored this deeply enough. This might exist, so if, if folks are listening and, and they know of this, uh, I would love to hear about it. But, like, imagine the, the premium version of assisted living, where you feel really, really good about sending your grandparent, your mom, your sister, whatever it is, to one of these places, and obviously the, you know, the price would have to go way up. Um, but people are already... Like, this stat is saying they're spending $54,000 per year as the average. Um, and so, uh, you know, for the wealthy, like, wouldn't you pay five times that to send your loved one to something a lot better?
- SPSam Parr
Yeah, and I think people do. Like, I, I know people who have people in nursing homes, and they spend 20 or $30,000 a month. It's insane I- it's absolutely insane.
- 18:28 – 20:11
Why entrepreneurs are sleeping on this space
- SPSam Parr
Why haven't there been any, uh, new startups in this space? Like, for example, um, what-- I got sick, uh, a few years ago, and I had a IV in my arm for, I think, 35 days, and I used to have a nurse have to come to my house every three or four days to, to change out the IV. And typically, these nurses that did this, they... I was an am- I wasn't normal. They-- It's mostly older people who they work with. And finding these nurses was a nightmare. Like, finding them via my healthcare provider, nightmare. Shockingly, a large percentage of the people, and this was when I was in New York, uh, I got sick over summertime, and I had to get this, and shockingly, a large percentage of these businesses were mom and pop businesses. And so it was actually quite hard to operate. Like, they didn't have, like, a web portal that I could interact with. I had to, like, call them all the time to schedule them. Why hasn't there been interesting technology-based startups in this space?
- SSSteph Smith
I mean, I'm sure there are some that exist, but I'll kind of revert back to what I said about even menopause. Like, this is not a sexy space, right? The, the problems that people face at this point in their life, um, most entrepreneurs have not experienced, right? So, like, they are not thinking about what an 80-year-old might need because they've never been 80, right? And, and so I think it's a little different, where if I'm, you know, in Gen Z, I'm very... I'm not, but [laughs] if I were, I'd be very much, uh, I'd be more likely to wanna create a business for people that I understand. And so for that reason, I think this, this, these industries haven't really been tackled as much. But
- 20:11 – 27:36
Opportunity: Measuring and tracking
- SSSteph Smith
here's an example of where I think you could merge knowledge from a younger base with, you know, the assisted living facilities. I don't know if this would work, um, but there's this idea-- I also read Outlive by Peter Attia, and he talks about this centenarian decathlon, right? Um, and he talks about how he works with people, and he tries to get them to basically the fitness level of people two decades younger. And actually, what he tries to do is to get them at the fitness level at the elite top 2% of people two decades younger. And he talks about in his book how, you know, when people first hear that, he's like, "You know, most people think it's impossible," right? Like, I can't even get in the top 2% of my age, let alone two decades younger. But he gives all these examples, and the one that I'll cite is, have you heard of Robert Marchand?
- SPSam Parr
No. What's that?
- SSSteph Smith
So he's unfortunately passed away. He passed away at 109, but he at, um, 101 was still cycling, and he, he broke some records at 101, and he decided that wasn't enough. So he then worked with a bunch of trainers and tried to break his existing record. At 103, he hit 27 kilometers an hour on a bike. Um, and he continued competing until he was 105. If you look him up on YouTube, there's all these videos of him, like, getting past the finish line, and there's all these reporters, like, coming in, trying to film him because he's just... Like, he shouldn't be doing the things that he's doing at 101, three or five. And so he gives several examples, as, and Peter does in his book, of these people who at 80, 90, even over 100, like Robert, who have kind of not just, um, competed throughout their life, but in some cases, like, didn't take care of themselves and then got on this regimen and completely, like, shaped, reshaped their fitness. And so you could imagine, what if you could send your loved one, or they opt into this, hopefully, to a place where it's not just this idea of assisted living where you kind of go there to die. What if you go there for, like, a revival? Um, what if you go there with a VO2 max of 15, and all of a sudden you leave with it at 25 and you're 80? Like, that is really cool. Um, and it kind of merges some of the trends that we're seeing in, like, the kind of more new age fitness and longevity with this massive business around assisted living.
- SPSam Parr
So when I lived in Austin, I would say, uh, Austin is probably the most fit place I've ever been in. If you, like, go along the trail on, like, Lady Bird Lake-
- SSSteph Smith
Yes
- SPSam Parr
... like, everyone is jacked and, like, muscular and, like, women there tend to like lifting weights more than I've ever seen in different, like, cities. Like, it's pretty wild. Like, everyone's into it. Uh, and so amongst of my friends, like, being healthy is, uh, pa- is definitely a lifestyle that we're all bought into. When you're doing this research, is there something where it's just like... So, like, in order to do what you're saying, you, you need... I think there needs to be, like, a... It needs to be part of, like, the fabric of society.
- SSSteph Smith
Mm-hmm.
- SPSam Parr
Whereas right now it's not. So for example, I love watching prison TV shows. It's a confession.
- SSSteph Smith
Yep.
- SPSam Parr
I'm Sam Parr. I like watching prison TV shows.
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
And one of my favorite things to watch are in different European countries as well as in China and, uh, parts, other, a few other countries in Asia. They make the inmates do exercise hour, where, like, you have to, like, get out of the cell and you must do a routine, and the idea is, like, if you care about your body and exercise, you're gonna start caring about other things, and hopefully you'll be a better person. Another example is, I've got this friend named Anne. Anne started this company called Solidcore, which is like, um-
- SSSteph Smith
Mm-hmm
- SPSam Parr
... a Pilates business that she sold for hundreds of millions of dollars. Her first company was a nonprofit that taught homeless men how to run, and the reason she taught homeless men how to run is because if you learn how to get up at 5:00 AM and care about fitness, you're likely to care about other things and thus hopefully get clean and sober and get a-
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah
- SPSam Parr
... stable job, whatever. And so anyway, I'm on board with what you're saying, but I don't think any of this will actually happen, at least in America, not for a while. And a lot of people listening to this podcast are coastal people. They're basically like coastal elites. You know, they, they live in New York. They live in San Francisco like you or me. They live in LA, where they're used to, like, seeing the, this fit stuff. But if you go to Missouri, where I'm from, or you go to other parts of the Midwest, this whole fitness stuff ain't exactly a thing. Like, for example, I had a family member who got diabetes and when the, when he saw the doctor, like, he was like, "Ah, like, I got really sick and hospitalized." And the, the doctor was like, "Yeah, you have diabetes." And the person was like, "Well, what do I do?" And the doctor was like, "Uh, just like, uh, just eat healthy." Like, you know what I mean?
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
Like, it was just like this like-
- SSSteph Smith
Okay
- SPSam Parr
... like it was just, it was like, "I don't know, man, like, figure it out." Like the, and the doctor was fat.
- SSSteph Smith
Right. Right, right, yeah.
- SPSam Parr
Uh, so anyway, my, my point being is, like, is this realistic that any of this can actually happen or that any of this ... Or b- or that, like, if you started some of these businesses that people would actually take to it?
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah, so I think this is actually, uh, an opportunity in the sense that if you think about, yeah, like you said, we're coastal elites. Um, we're also highly competitive. Like, I think the people who listen to this podcast are the same. So what do we gravitate towards? 75 Hard. You gravitate towards, like, hitting new PBs on Strava. Um, you go to doctors like Peter Attia, who only sees like, you know, a few dozen patients a year.
- SPSam Parr
And it's a quarter of a million dollars.
- SSSteph Smith
Exactly. Exactly. So I agree. Um, but I actually tweeted this the other day. I was like, "How much better would a lot of people's lives be if they just moved for three miles a day?" I know that sounds like a lot to some people. You could even break it, bring it down to one or two. Um, but, like, we don't need 75 Hard. And nothing against it, but, like, we need ... [laughs] Someone, someone commented, "We need 30 Moderate". Because if you actually, it takes a little bit of time for people, if they're really out of shape, to get here, but if you get into even moderate shape, you can run three miles in 30 minutes, right? And if you think about that's half the length of a yoga class, right? Like, it doesn't take that much of your day. You don't need the hour-plus morning routine. You just need something really, really moderate, right? Um, and that's obviously, like you said, it's, um ... What does James Clear talk about? Like, keystone habits. You do that, and everything else unlocks. And so I think there, there's some sort of very, very average, and I mean average in a good way, program that should be out there that is not 75 Hard. Like, that is something way, way more approachable, um, that the average American can do, and maybe it's not even three miles at this point. Maybe it's one, and then the second year you go to two, and then on the third year you go to three. Um, but I say that 'cause, like, I used to hate running and there's all these ... You said something-
- SPSam Parr
Do you e- do you even exercise?
- SSSteph Smith
I'm, I'm probably gonna hit around 500 miles this year, um, in running, and then soccer, spin, et cetera. But it took me ... Here's, here's the real takeaway for, like, the average person who hates running. It took me probably a year and a half to like running, um, which was way longer than I thought, right? People talk about the runner's high and, like, if you just do it enough, like, it'll, it'll kick in. Took me a year and a half of pretty consistent running for some switch to flip where all of a sudden it was enjoyable.
- SPSam Parr
Tell me some ... Let's ... Keep, keep just rattling off some of these interesting stats, and it's okay if it's not related to longevity.
- 27:36 – 39:41
Idea: Stava for CGMs
- SSSteph Smith
Well, let's talk about one thing real quick on the leg- longevity side. Um, I think one of the reasons that I got into running was 'cause I had started using Strava and I had data. So another example of people getting data, um, you used a CGM before, right? A continuous glucose monitor.
- SPSam Parr
Yeah, I'm an investor of Levels, so I used one of those for a long time. I've also done, um, a lot of, um, telomere length, I think it's telomere.
- SSSteph Smith
Yep.
- SPSam Parr
Anyway, like measuring those cells. I do a lot of blood work. I do a ton of, I do a ton of blood work actually, probably quarterly. Um, I track my weight every day. For the last four years I think, or three years, I've tracked almost everything I've eaten on My Body or, uh, I use My Body Tutor, which is like a nutritional service, but I track all of my food on MyFitnessPal. But yeah, I track a lot of stuff.
- SSSteph Smith
You do a lot more than the average human. Um, but CGMs in particular-
- SPSam Parr
It's, it's ... By the way, what I just said sounds like a lot. It adds up to roughly 10 minutes a week.
- SSSteph Smith
Wow.
- SPSam Parr
Like, it's not that hard.
- SSSteph Smith
Well, let me just quickly share this one thing on the CGMs, which is Dexcom, which is one of the companies that manufactures them. I think they have, like, 40% market share or something in that range. Their new product, Stelo, is the first over-the-counter FDA-approved CGM. This was just as of like last month, um, end of August, and to me this is really interesting because I think before, I can't, I don't know exactly how you got one. I think you needed a prescription, but you could get that if you were overweight or you had diabetes. Most people didn't seek it out. Um, I've been testing one for the last two weeks, and I love it. Like, I, I'm obviously not affiliated at all. Um-
- SPSam Parr
And by the way, uh, CGM, that stands for continuous glucose monitor, which basically you put this little, like, quarter-size, uh, button-
- SSSteph Smith
I've got it on. Mine's a little dirty from my sweater, but ...
- SPSam Parr
Yeah, you like, you basically inject that into your arm and it measures your blood glucose levels. Uh, a- and so you can just, like, put your app to it at any given point, right? And it'll tell you what your blood glucose monitor is, or your blood glucose levels are.
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah, exactly. So each one lasts around two weeks. I think a lot of people just do it for two to four weeks and they get a lot of data around, you know, like what's your resting or fasting, uh, glucose level.
- SPSam Parr
And it basically does the same thing that, uh, Dexa does, which is a lot of people will say, "Oh, I'm 15% body fat," and they go do a Dexa and they're really like 22. It's like a very, like, harsh thing. Dexa's very, very harsh.
- SSSteph Smith
Oh, totally.
- SPSam Parr
And, uh, CGMs are very harsh too. You'll think, uh, "Oh, I'm gonna eat healthy. I'm gonna eat a salad," and then you eat just a little bit of cranberries in your salad-
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah
- SPSam Parr
... or a little bit of, like, dressing, uh, like some type of sugary dressing in your salad, and your blood glucose spikes. Or you're like, "I'm just gonna eat steak and a potato," or, like, something that you view as, like, a whole food and your blood glucose monitor, like, starts going off like an alarm because it's shocking how Uh, some of this stuff piques your, your blood
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah. I-- The reason I love it is 'cause of what you're saying. So we are a family at home with an Eight Sleep. I've got an Apple Watch. My husband's bought, like, four Oura Rings. Like, we are similar to you in that we've-
- SPSam Parr
Where does he put all his Ours Ring-- Oura Rings? In, uh-
- SSSteph Smith
I mean, he just buy-- He's like it-- They get a new version, he's like, "I need the new version." It's-- I, I don't know. Um, but point is, like, we, we've used a lot of this technology, and my problem with some of it is that it is so broad that you're like, "Okay, I slept bad last night. How do I fix it?" And I think the m- the most major thing people talk about is alcohol. But, you know, on a more granular level, like, what changes should I make? Um, this, like you said, it's so reactive, where you can see exactly what spikes you, and sometimes it's not very, um, reassuring, where you're like, "Okay," like, you know, "I can't hide," basically is the idea. And so I've, I've really been enjoying it, and I think the fact that it now is over the counter, I think there's... Well, Levels is a company already kind of doing this, but-
- SPSam Parr
By the way, I, uh, I did invest in Levels, so I, I will promote it. Uh, levels.com.
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs] Yeah
- SPSam Parr
I think you can, uh, you can go to their website right now and you can get one of these things. That, that's, that is my plug and I'm letting people know. So we, we both have a stake here. Just let everyone know. But go ahead.
- SSSteph Smith
Well, I was gonna say, so Dexcom, the company that, uh, that sells these Stelos, and they have a few other more expensive CGMs, um, they have an API. I don't think it's fully open, but I think, you know, you can apply to use it. And very simple idea, I hate to even use this, like, comparable, but I think there should be a Strava for CGMs. Now that more people are using it, even during just that trial period of a month of learning, like, I think, um, being able to kind of socialize what you're learning but also compete in a way, um, that's what Strava is. Like, you're congratulating each other, but you're also seeing other people's PBs. Seeing in the equivalent version with the CGM, you see, like, are you spending your day in range? Like, how big are your spikes? What's your dawn effect? Which is when... it's basically your rising glucose after you wake up. I think that there's gonna be some sort of socialization of this. I don't know exactly what it looks like. And maybe just one example of where you can already see this before Stelo existed is, have you heard of the Glucose Goddess?
- SPSam Parr
No. What is this?
- SSSteph Smith
It's this, just this woman. She's got 5 million followers on Instagram, 1 million on YouTube. Um, she got-- she has a recipe club where she charges $5 a month, and she recently released, I think it was just as of the last few months, a product called Anti Spike. Um-
- SPSam Parr
Dude, her website is awesome.
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
I love this woman. Is that her in the main photo? She looks like a-
- 39:41 – 44:19
Idea: Solutions for nerd neck
- SSSteph Smith
um, it's just another one of these, like, spinoffs of, of health. But I spend way too much time online. I think a lot of people do too. So I've got a bad case, hopefully improving case of nerd neck. Some people call it forward, uh, head posture. Um, but basically it's just 'cause we're, we're hunched over at a computer all day long. Um, and I haven't done a ton here. Uh, like, I'm kind of on the, like, very early part of this curve, but I have played around with... I'm not using it right now. Hold up. There's this thing. I, I don't know if I'd vouch for it or not yet, but this thing called BetterBack. Um-
- SPSam Parr
I'm looking at it.
- SSSteph Smith
And-
- SPSam Parr
I think any, any time that you have to use one of these devices, I tend to get nervous that it's legit. But go ahead. What is it?
- SSSteph Smith
Well, that's why I don't know... So it has helped me sit up more. It basically, like, it r- runs around your knees and your back, and I like it better than something... There's things you s- you can put on your back that, like, zap you and stuff, and I feel like that's really unnatural. But this actually just because it's, like, fixated around your knees, you just sit up straighter, um, the whole time you're sitting. So there's things like that.
- SPSam Parr
So for, for those listening, it's basically, like, a strap that when you're sitting down, it wraps around your back and then attaches to your knees. And in doing that, it kind of forces you to sit up.
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah.
- SPSam Parr
Okay.
- SSSteph Smith
Exactly.
- SPSam Parr
Understood.
- SSSteph Smith
There's other, um, for the women, the f- your four female listeners, there is a sports bra that I haven't tried yet called Form, which apparently, like, folks like Taylor Swift have used. If you look at her posture a decade ago, it was way, way worse. So there, like, there's a small part of me that believes that something like that works. There's-
- SPSam Parr
Can I use this?
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs] You-
- SPSam Parr
Like, I-
- SSSteph Smith
... can. [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
Like, you're telling me just, like, this, like, shirt that... I mean, for me it would be a shirt, that's gonna make me have better posture?
- SSSteph Smith
I, I don't-
- SPSam Parr
What is this thing?
- SSSteph Smith
I haven't tried it, but, um, it's, it's a sports bra that people vouch helps your posture. But I think generally, as I've explored this a little bit, it is a function of your muscle, right? Like, if you have strength in your abdomen and your back, like, you're gonna sit up straighter. But there's a video I shared. We can include all this in the show notes. Um, this is actually just, like, an email I sent or I'm gonna send to the Internet Pipes crew this month. But, like, it's, um, a video from Brian Johnson around his posture. He worked with a posture coach for several months, and then Tim Ferriss has recommended something called the Ego Skew method, which I have not tried. Um-
- SPSam Parr
And what's this Brian Johnson video? What's... How do I just make my posture better?
- SSSteph Smith
There's three different exercises that he does every single day, and he shares them in this video, um, that improved his posture.
- SPSam Parr
And what's this Ego, Ego Eskew method?
- SSSteph Smith
It's a method that I think you need to, like, work with a practitioner for, which is why, again, I'm not, um, I don't, I don't think I'm vouching for this in any way, but it's just something that came up.
- SPSam Parr
Dude, there's this great, uh, [lips smack] a TED Talk that you should watch it, Why Sitting Down Destroys You. I think it's by Roger, uh, Frampton. I believe that's the one. Uh, but it's a, a TED Talk that has millions of views, and he basically goes through this idea of how- He worked, I, I think he worked in, in the Amazon. He worked with some like indigenous tribe where they didn't have a, they didn't use like a lot of chairs or something like that. And what he found was that basically the people who st- In, in today's age, we don't really do this, but we used to, where if you stand a lot, you squeeze your ass. Like imagine you got a, you got a little penny in your butt cheeks that you're trying to keep from falling down on the ground.
- SSSteph Smith
Mm-hmm.
- SPSam Parr
That's basically what you do. You like squeeze your butt together when you're standing. And there's a reason why our glutes typically tend to be our largest muscle. It's because we are supposed to use them a lot.
- SSSteph Smith
Oh.
- SPSam Parr
And how we don't really use them too much anymore. And so instead when we stand, we kind of, uh, lean forward. And he was like, "No, you should actually, when you stand..." Uh, he was like, "A lot of babies actually, if you watch like a kid, you'll notice they s- they, they do a good job of this, but you squeeze your butt together and, and, and, and you flex your abs as opposed to just falling forward. And if you work on it, you can actually hold that for like a fairly long time when you're standing, and that's the proper way to stand. And so it's not just sitting that will destroy you, but standing, uh, incorrectly." You know what I mean?
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah, totally. Well, even in the video I did watch with Bryan Johnson, he was talking about how most people, when they think they want good posture, they like tilt their head back, and that's bad as well. Like, they're kind of like, "Oh, I have good posture," like this. Um, and you really wanna be more like head, your, the back of your neck should be absolutely straight. So, um, yeah.
- 44:19 – 56:18
Idea: Niche paddle sports leagues
- SPSam Parr
Dude, Steph, um, are there, are there any more of these stats or storylines that we should dive into?
- SSSteph Smith
Let's do, uh, this idea of barbell sports just 'cause we're doing this whole like fitness longevity stuff.
- SPSam Parr
All right.
- SSSteph Smith
So all I wanna do is share kind of a frame with folks, which is like, you know, you've had a bunch of the, you know, you'd call tier one sports that everyone knows, soccer, basketball, baseball, that have existed for a long time. Um, they're in every school. But now you're seeing all of these more niche sports pop up. Pickleball's the most famous example, but there's also sports like TekeBall. Have you heard of TekeBall?
- SPSam Parr
What is TekeBall?
- SSSteph Smith
T-E-Q Ball. Um, so it's... I don't know how to explain it. Um, the best version f- I think is like it's a mix of soccer and ping pong. So imagine like a big ping pong table, and then you're using your body and it's like a large ball to basically lob, you know, the ball over the net. There's crazy videos on YouTube of this, this TekeBall. I think TekeBall itself has four million followers on Facebook. Some of their videos on YouTube have millions of views. 'Cause it really is just like freak of nature kind of stuff. People are doing almost like flips to like, uh, to get the ball. But the reason I mention it is because, again, this frame is what did pickleball do? Pickleball basically took tennis or something like it and it made it more accessible, right? They changed, um, how bouncy the ball was. They changed the size of the court. They changed the way that the paddle feels so that just about anyone could play, right? Tennis is like pretty, pretty hard to do well.
- SPSam Parr
Yeah.
- SSSteph Smith
And there's a version of, of people who, who wanna do it, but pickleball basically opened the aperture so more people could participate. So I think like if you take an existing sport and you make it more, make it less agile so more people can participate, that's one direction. And then TekeBall is the opposite. The same way that in like fashion you have fast fashion and then you have the premium brands and basically nothing in the middle succeeds, I think it's like the, an interesting parallel where TekeBall is like, you actually make it way harder, right? So that some people who just want to like prove that they're extremely agile and that they're competitors and they're winners, um, gravitate to sports, something like that, 'cause they just wanna be the best. And that's a much more, again, shareable sport, 'cause you're clipping this thing up and you're basically showing like, "Look at this freak of nature."
- SPSam Parr
What's padel? All my friends keep talking about this thing called padel and I'm like, "Is it paddle or padel?"
- SSSteph Smith
I always thought it was padel before hearing people play.
- SPSam Parr
Here's what it reminds me of. One time I went to a conference in Europe and there was this like white Michigan lady who was like, had been living in Germany or something like that for like two years, and she was this influencer asshole, and she was talking about how she had this brand deal with Adidas. And she's talking to me, I'm like, "Dude, we're from Mid- we're both from the Midwest." And I'm like, "What the hell is Adidas?" She's like, "Adidas? You don't know Adidas?"
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
"The, the, the, the shoe brand?" And I'm like, "Do you mean Adidas?" And she's like, "No, I mean Adidas. It's called Adidas." And I was like, "Dude, you asshole, just call it Adidas. You know I don't know what that means." And I always thought that padel, it was someone like this fancy guy talking to me about padel. I'm like, "Are you trying to say the word paddle? Is that really what you mean? What the hell does padel mean?"
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
And I think it's actually called padel.
- SSSteph Smith
Well, it came from Europe where-
- SPSam Parr
That's my long story of saying I don't know what it's called
- SSSteph Smith
... it, like all the best players are in Spain and, um, I think, I, I don't know. I don't know if this is one of those cases where like, you know how countries will have their own name and then other countries will be, just be like, "Actually, we're not gonna call you Sverige, which is what you call yourself. We're just gonna call you Sweden." And, and just like imagine if I did that to you, Sam. I'm like, "I know you think you're Sam, but like I'm just gonna call you Scott."
- SPSam Parr
Yeah, I feel that.
- SSSteph Smith
It's, it's, it's weird.
- SPSam Parr
I feel that.
- SSSteph Smith
So I don't know what, I don't know if padel is correct, um, or it's just the Americanized version of paddle, but, um, that is... I played it while I was in New York. It's like also kind of like tennis, but there's a wall behind you and the wall is in play.
- SPSam Parr
And it's blowing up.
- SSSteph Smith
It's totally blowing up. I think that's another example of the latter example where you take something and you actually make it harder. So that's just a frame and like maybe one other example of where you make something, again, you're attracting these like go hard people, is Everesting. Um, have you heard of Everesting?
- SPSam Parr
Yeah. Uh, so one of the guys who started this company, Mark, is in Hampton and I've gotten to know him. Go ahead. What's it called? Or, or explain what it is.
- SSSteph Smith
It's basically just, um- For the people who wanna climb Everest but can't make it to Everest, um, it's just this competition where people, like, run up and down any hill as many times as possible. That equates to what it would be to climb Everest. This is an interesting frame because it's, it's actually what can you do with no equipment, right? Like, running you can do that with, right? And what can you do anywhere? But running is boring for a lot of people, just, like, pure, pure play running. So this is an example where you can do it anywhere you've got a hill.
- SPSam Parr
I am gonna do one of those this year. The, the... It's called 29029.com. I'm doing one this year. Do you wanna do it with me?
- SSSteph Smith
Uh, when is it?
- SPSam Parr
Uh, he's sending me the list of, uh... He's letting me pick one and attend one for free, uh, which is, like, a big deal. I think it's, like, five grand. Um, but they-
- SSSteph Smith
Oh, whoa. Talk about a business.
- 56:18 – 59:34
The smile curve
- SSSteph Smith
curve around happiness?
- SPSam Parr
No.
- SSSteph Smith
How older people just generally tend to be happy. And so people tend to be happy early in life, and then in mid- mid years there's this, like, they call it the smile curve 'cause, like, generally they become a little less happy, and then that curve goes, like, up and up and up, um, as people get older, which is really interesting. Um, I don't know exactly what to take away from that other than, like-
- SPSam Parr
Well, the takeaway is that you spend your 30s and 40s giving a shit about what other people think, climbing the ladder.
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah.
- SPSam Parr
Um, and you wanna flex on others and, and then, uh, but when you're 10 and 15, you care about that a little bit less. And then at the age of 30 and 40, you sacrifice your values in order to appease other people and to climb up this ladder. And then at the age of 50, 60, 70, you have grandkids and you realize none of that fucking matters. That's what I, that's what I, that's-
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah
- SPSam Parr
... my assumption. Uh-
- SSSteph Smith
Yeah, yeah. I mean, people can interpret a lot from that, but I agree. I think there's something around, like, you learn a lot about what to care about and what not to care about, and then you're happy.
- SPSam Parr
Steph Smith, thank you very much for doing the pod. We appreciate you.
- SSSteph Smith
Thank you. By the way, can I say something really quick? Um, which is just-
- SPSam Parr
What?
- SSSteph Smith
... the last time I was on, just a shout-out to the listeners. Like, y- we talked about, so the product that I had launched a year ago, Internet Pipes, for, like, 30 seconds at the end of a, an hour-plus long podcast.
- SPSam Parr
How much revenue did you make off that?
- SSSteph Smith
Off that? I'm pretty sure... It's hard to tie directly, like, but for sure six figures, which is crazy. Um, so I just wanna shout out to, to the folks and all the people who listen who are in Internet Pipes and all that. Um, so.
- SPSam Parr
Internetpipes.com. It's like, um, it's a, it kinda started as, like, a book, but now it's a community, right?
- SSSteph Smith
It's a community. We run events that are kind of weird and quirky. Weird fruit tastings. We did, like, electric shuffleboard, uh, documentary screenings. So it's cool. Um, we can do a code if MFM-
- SPSam Parr
Do people pay for the events?
- SSSteph Smith
No, no, no, no. So it's a one-time thing and then you're in the community. You get access to the events that, um... We do monthly emails, so again, I'm... The one I'm sending is on longevity. Last month it was on Japan.
- SPSam Parr
You basically just took our idea from Trends-
- SSSteph Smith
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
... and you, uh, did it on your own.
- SSSteph Smith
You said it.
- SPSam Parr
Which is smart.
- SSSteph Smith
I didn't say it. Um, but actually the point was, around Internet Pipes, was meant to be a, a little different in the sense of Trends was like, "Here are the trends." Internet Pipes is meant to be, "Here are the tools so that you can surface your own trends as well." Like, you know, behind the scenes how the sandwich is made.
- SPSam Parr
Dude, this is, this is awesome. Uh, you owe me, uh, a dinner then.
- SSSteph Smith
Oh, totally.
- SPSam Parr
Um, that's a fair trade for that.
- SSSteph Smith
More than, more than a dinner.
- SPSam Parr
No.
Episode duration: 59:34
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Transcript of episode LrO2Cwq2KGM
