No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour

In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @MansourTarek Show Notes: 0:00 Introduction 1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi 3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC 5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting 7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections 8:12 Gambling vs. trading 9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets 12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking 17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity 19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses 22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets 24:59 Conditional markets 26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate 31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform

Sarah GuohostTarek Mansourguest

Oct 31, 202435mWatch on YouTube ↗

EPISODE INFO

Released: October 31, 2024
Duration: 35m
Channel: No Priors
Watch on YouTube: ▶ Open ↗

EPISODE DESCRIPTION

In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @MansourTarek Show Notes: 0:00 Introduction 1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi 3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC 5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting 7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections 8:12 Gambling vs. trading 9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets 12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking 17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity 19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses 22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets 24:59 Conditional markets 26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate 31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform

SPEAKERS

Sarah Guo
host
Tarek Mansour
guest

EPISODE SUMMARY

In this episode of No Priors, featuring Sarah Guo and Tarek Mansour, No Priors Ep. 88 | With Founder & CEO of Kalshi Tarek Mansour explores regulated prediction markets reshape risk, forecasting, and election betting in America Sarah Guo interviews Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour about building the first fully CFTC-regulated U.S. prediction market exchange, now legally offering trading on U.S. elections for the first time in a century. Mansour explains how event contracts differ from traditional financial instruments, arguing they enable socially useful risk transfer and superior forecasting rather than mere gambling. They discuss Kalshi’s multiyear regulatory battle with the CFTC, market design challenges like liquidity and leverage, and the information-aggregation power of markets versus polls and experts. The conversation also explores future features like conditional markets, use cases from weather to inflation, and how prediction markets could become a major pillar of the financial system.

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