No Priors

Pax Silica: Inside the Trump Administration’s Tech Strategy with Jacob Helberg

Securing AI dominance requires more than just semiconductors; it demands a complete overhaul of how the West manages everything that goes into them, from rare earth minerals to actuators. Enter: Pax Silica. Sarah Guo and Elad Gil sit down with US Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg to discuss the launch and expansion of Pax Silica, a 14-country economic security coalition designed to secure the entire AI supply chain. Jacob talks about the creation of a forward-deployed industrial base in the Philippines, where 4,000 acres will be developed into an “economic security zone.” He also compares and contrasts Pax Silica with China’s Belt and Road initiative, explains how the US plans to reindustrialize through automation and robotics, and explores how the Trump administration envisions making these policies durable across future presidencies. Plus, we hear why Jacob believes America to be a “global underdog.” Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @jacobhelberg | @UnderSecE Chapters: 00:00 – Cold Open 00:41 – Jacob Helberg Introduction 01:02 – Pax Silica’s Mission 03:51 – Investing in AI Chip Supply Chains 05:43 – Comparing Pax Silica to China’s Belt and Road Initiative 12:38 – Pax Silica’s Value Proposition 14:38 – US vs. Partnered Manufacturing 19:10 – Rare Earth Mineral Pricing 22:16 – Role of Venture Capital in Pax Silica 24:50 – Near vs. Long-Term Priorities 27:09 – Making AI Policy Durable 28:09 – How Policies Impact Entrepreneurs 31:00 – Trump’s Entrepreneurial Administration 33:00 – Why America is a Global Underdog 38:00 – Conclusion

JHJacob Helbergguest

May 14, 2026·38m·Watch on YouTube ↗

📖 CHAPTERS

1. 1
   0:00 – 0:41

   Cold open: Why Pax Silica won’t be a government-run supply chain

   Helberg frames the core philosophy behind Pax Silica: the U.S. shouldn’t try to out-central-plan China. Instead, America’s advantage is its private sector building commercially viable platforms that can ultimately operate outside government.

2. 2
   0:41 – 1:02

   Jacob Helberg’s role and the purpose of the conversation

   Hosts introduce Jacob Helberg (now Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs) and set the agenda: a deep dive on Pax Silica as a multi-nation effort to secure AI supply chains for the U.S. and allies.

3. 3
   1:02 – 3:51

   What Pax Silica is: an ecosystems approach across 14 countries

   Helberg defines Pax Silica as an economic security coalition aimed at reducing concentration risk across the full AI supply chain—not just chips. He describes it as a blueprint of policy roadmaps plus concrete projects.

4. 4
   3:51 – 5:43

   The Philippines forward-deployed industrial base: the flagship project

   Helberg details a major agreement with the Philippines: 4,000 acres for an industrial build-out intended to secure critical inputs. The structure aims to blend U.S.-style legal predictability with Philippine industrial advantages.

5. 5
   5:43 – 12:38

   How the zone works: diplomatic custody now, long-term investor framework later

   The plan has two phases: immediate State Department custody (treating the land like diplomatic property) and a two-year negotiation window to define investor protections, taxation, and long-term governance. The intent is a multi-decade framework that attracts sustained private investment.

6. 6
   12:38 – 14:38

   Beyond chips: targeting robotics and other China-dominated inputs

   Helberg stresses that the AI supply chain spans thousands of components (motors, magnets, actuators, precision parts), many of which carry severe concentration risk. He highlights robotics as a priority area where China currently dominates end-to-end supply chains.

7. 7
   14:38 – 19:10

   Pax Silica vs. China’s Belt and Road: same scale, different operating system

   The hosts compare Pax Silica to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Helberg describes BRI as state-owned enterprises exporting infrastructure for foreign-policy leverage, while Pax Silica aims to put private companies in the driver’s seat with commercially viable platforms.

8. 8
   19:10 – 22:16

   Where Belt and Road breaks: waste, debt traps, and misaligned incentives

   Helberg argues BRI suffers from central-planning inefficiencies, cost overruns, and projects with low real utility (“roads to nowhere”). He characterizes the financing model as a leverage mechanism where debt can convert to equity, leaving host countries with limited upside.

9. 9
   22:16 – 24:50

   The value proposition for partner countries: AI-driven growth is positive-sum

   Helberg explains why allied countries join: AI growth is expanding demand for inputs (copper, cobalt, data-center components, skilled labor), creating opportunities to capture economic upside. The partnership model emphasizes shared risk and shared returns rather than zero-sum competition.

10. 10
    24:50 – 27:09

    What should be made in the U.S. vs. with allies: a hub-based strategy

    Helberg outlines a framework: the U.S. consumes far more than it produces, so narrowing that gap supports reindustrialization—likely with high autonomy due to low unemployment. Meanwhile, allied hubs should specialize by regional strengths (minerals, manufacturing ecosystems) to diversify global production away from overconcentration.

11. 11
    27:09 – 28:09

    Rare earths and critical minerals: processing bottlenecks and pricing power

    Discussion turns to rare earths: extraction is often less limiting than refining/processing capacity, which remains scarce outside China. Helberg describes a broad administration push—summits, MOUs, and investment—to expand supply and tackle demand-side pricing dynamics shaped by subsidies.

12. 12
    28:09 – 31:00

    Role of venture capital: execution selection and breakthrough innovation

    Helberg calls on VCs to help identify teams that can execute ambitious industrial plans and to signal which approaches merit capital. He also points to innovation pathways—new materials and rare-earth-free magnets—that could sidestep constraints in unexpected ways.

13. 13
    31:00 – 33:00

    Short-term vs. long-term priorities: shaping an ‘evergreen’ enabling environment

    Helberg emphasizes building durable platforms and a macro environment that lowers friction for innovation and deployment. He cites energy expansion (including nuclear), deregulation, and tax incentives, plus replicable industrial-base models, as ways to accelerate both near-term progress and long-term competitiveness.

14. 14
    33:00 – 38:00

    Durable AI policy and impacts on entrepreneurs: market access, partnerships, and IP

    Hosts raise the problem of policy reversal across administrations; Helberg notes some tools (e.g., tax reform) are harder to unwind. He then shifts to what entrepreneurs should track: Pax Silica as a platform for expanded market access among allies, supply-chain partnership formation, and unresolved AI IP issues like model distillation.

15. 15
    38:00 – 38:00

    Inside the Trump administration’s operating style—and why Helberg calls America an underdog

    Helberg describes the administration as unusually entrepreneurial, fast-moving, and risk-tolerant (“Trump time”), with collegial cabinet leadership. He explains his “America as underdog” framing as a cultural advantage: resilience under pressure and a founder-like, contrarian, positive-sum approach to partnerships.