No PriorsThe Largest Untapped Market Inside U.S. Defense | Emil Michael
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 0:55
China’s military buildup and the push to open defense contracting to new entrants
Emil frames the central urgency: China’s historic-scale buildup demands faster, different defense investment and execution. He argues consolidation left too few major contractors and that the Department of War (DoW) must become easier for startups to work with—without lawsuits as the on-ramp.
- •China’s buildup is described as the largest in world history, driving urgency
- •Defense contractor consolidation: ~50 primes in the ’80s to ~5 today
- •Past innovators (SpaceX, Anduril, Palantir) had to sue for first contracts
- •Message to founders: “come through the front door” as buying culture shifts
- •Goal: lower-cost, faster, more sophisticated solutions
- 0:55 – 3:36
What Emil’s DoW CTO/Under Secretary role covers (DARPA, DIU, AI office, SCO)
Emil explains how the department reorganized to separate acquisition from research/engineering, creating a mandate to move at tech speed. He outlines the portfolio he now oversees and the objective to unify technology efforts across a massive enterprise budget.
- •DoW split acquisition from research & engineering to keep pace with tech
- •Emil’s role: Under Secretary for Research & Engineering
- •Oversight includes DARPA, the Chief AI Office, DIU, and the Strategic Capability Office
- •DIU as the bridge to dual-use/startup ecosystem (based in Mountain View)
- •Unifying efforts to reduce duplication and speed delivery across ~$150B/year tech spend
- 3:36 – 5:22
Injecting Silicon Valley speed into government execution
Sarah presses on whether Emil’s high-tempo operating style can work inside a bureaucracy. Emil argues leadership patterns transfer, resources are larger, the mission is higher-stakes, and urgency plus culture can meaningfully accelerate outcomes.
- •Emil’s intent: bring urgency, speed, and barrier-breaking execution
- •Leadership/culture methods can translate from startups to bureaucracy
- •Government is harder but has more resources and higher mission impact
- •Growing inbound interest from talent across government and industry
- •Motivation is sustained by tangible, high-consequence outcomes
- 5:22 – 6:46
From 14 “critical technologies” to 6 sprint-driven priorities
Elad prompts on prioritization, and Emil describes reducing an unwieldy list of 14 “critical technology areas” down to six. He emphasizes action orientation—treating priorities like engineering roadmaps with sprints and accountability.
- •“Fourteen priorities mean no priorities”: too diffuse to execute
- •Cut from 14 technology areas to 6 after cross-department study
- •Reframed priorities to be action-oriented rather than committee-driven
- •Introduced sprint-style execution and progress tracking
- •Focus on cross-cutting areas that benefit multiple services
- 6:46 – 8:27
Key technology bets: applied AI, scaled hypersonics, and scaled directed energy
Emil details several top priorities: applying commercial AI rather than building foundation models, producing hypersonic capabilities at scale and lower cost, and scaling directed energy systems to counter drones and missiles economically. The theme is shifting from exquisite, expensive systems to mass-producible capability.
- •Applied AI: adapt private-sector models to DoW use cases (not build foundation models)
- •Scaled hypersonics: make Mach-5+ maneuverable weapons cheaper and producible at scale
- •Current hypersonics are “exquisite” and expensive; need mass and affordability
- •Scaled directed energy: lasers/microwaves to counter drones/missiles more cheaply than interceptors
- •Economic asymmetry: avoid $5M missiles against ~$50K drones
- 8:27 – 10:41
Autonomous systems and the changing mix of defense spending
The conversation shifts to drones and broader autonomy, using Ukraine as proof of rapid doctrinal change. Emil predicts increasing budget share moving toward autonomous vehicles across domains (land, sea, air), with substantial firepower gains per dollar.
- •Ukraine accelerates the “robots as frontline” model to reduce casualties
- •Carriers and traditional power projection persist, but autonomy grows across naval/air systems
- •AI enables sensing, navigation, and autonomous action at scale
- •Prediction: in 10 years, ~20–30% of budget could shift to autonomous systems
- •Autonomous systems can be cheaper and yield more firepower per dollar
- 10:41 – 12:02
How DoW picks initiatives: identifying common needs across services
Sarah asks how priorities are chosen across Army, Navy, Air Force, and Space Force. Emil explains his office targets cross-service enablers where centralized leadership creates economies of scale, leaving service-specific needs to each branch’s own labs and procurement.
- •Pentagon-level tech leadership focuses on cross-service “common needs”
- •Seek enablers usable across multiple services to capture scale economies
- •Service-specific use cases often handled by individual branch labs/budgets
- •Time investment: months of discovery to find true cross-cutting priorities
- •Outcome: fewer priorities with broader enterprise impact
- 12:02 – 13:48
GenAI.mil: secure architecture and rapid deployment to 3 million users
Emil tells the story of building and launching GenAI.mil quickly despite strict security constraints that prevent standard public chatbot usage. He describes a tiger team, vendor collaboration, and rapid adoption across the enterprise.
- •DoW networks require secure, policy-compliant AI—can’t just use public chatbots
- •Key requirement: prevent sensitive data from entering public model training pools
- •Tiger team staffed by experienced engineers; ~60-day build cycle
- •Collaboration with Google Gemini due to existing DoW integration familiarity
- •Launched to ~3M people; ~1M unique users in 30 days; plans to expand models and classification levels
- 13:48 – 15:57
Applied AI roadmap: enterprise efficiency, intelligence fusion, and warfighting
Emil outlines three buckets for AI deployment: enterprise workflows, intelligence analysis, and warfighting/war-gaming. He stresses “pace-setting” pathfinder projects designed to break data barriers and demonstrate value, encouraging wider adoption.
- •AI deployment organized into: enterprise, intelligence, and warfighting
- •Enterprise: reduce drudgery (reports, PowerPoints, administrative load)
- •Intelligence: boost analyst productivity and fuse multiple intel sources
- •Warfighting: support planning, simulation, and scenario analysis
- •Pathfinder projects serve as demonstrations and barrier-breakers (especially around data access)
- 15:57 – 17:54
Five-to-ten-year view: autonomy, robotics, and enterprise transformation
Pressed to forecast, Emil highlights autonomy as the clearest near-term transformation, with AI-native robotics outperforming earlier approaches. He also expects major productivity changes in the DoW’s knowledge work, improving morale and helping recruitment.
- •Autonomous systems will evolve via better sensing and adaptive behavior
- •AI-first robotics examples show why newer entrants can leapfrog incumbents
- •DoW is positioned to benefit as AI matures and deployment expands
- •Enterprise productivity gains will be dramatic relative to current baseline
- •Less drudgery makes DoW roles more attractive to high-caliber talent
- 17:54 – 19:33
Recruiting technologists: fixer-builders, tech tours of duty, and “Recruiting Tuesdays”
Sarah asks who Emil is recruiting and how. Emil points to importing “fixer-builder” talent, creating structured paths for technologists to serve, and proactively sourcing candidates from industry networks.
- •Leverages technically sophisticated “fixer-builder” talent pools from DOGE-era hiring
- •US tech force concept: large-scale, 2-year technologist service stints
- •Goal: make government tech service a resume badge of honor
- •Active outreach and friend-network recruiting (“Recruiting Tuesdays”)
- •Build momentum by borrowing strong operators and letting them attract more talent
- 19:33 – 22:25
‘Arsenal of Freedom’ tour: reshaping procurement to strengthen the industrial base
Emil describes traveling with Secretary Hegseth to signal support for manufacturers and new entrants. He contrasts old procurement (huge requirement documents) with problem-first solicitations that better fit startups and unlock novel solutions.
- •Two “fitness standards”: warrior ethos and industrial base readiness
- •Tour message: DoW needs industry output, will cut bureaucracy, and welcomes entrants
- •Procurement shift: from 300-page RFPs to problem statements and solution proposals
- •Change benefits startups that can innovate but can’t navigate paperwork-heavy processes
- •Visits highlight combined hardware-software systems and nationwide manufacturing energy
- 22:25 – 25:49
Entrepreneur playbook: why DoW is more open, but manufacturing at scale is the test
Emil encourages founders: DoW is more receptive due to geopolitical urgency and lack of contractor diversity. He warns, however, that defense buying still differs from B2B software—reliability and scaled manufacturing matter because lives are at stake.
- •DoW is “more open for business than ever” due to near-peer competition
- •Room for new primes after decades of consolidation
- •Goal: avoid the historical ‘sue for your first contract’ dynamic
- •Defense sales aren’t normal enterprise deals; performance and safety are paramount
- •Startups must prove a path from prototype to 10,000 units and flawless production
- 25:49 – 32:09
Crossing the ‘Valley of Death’: rapid contracting, scaling programs, and strategic lending
Elad asks about budget rigidity and innovation pacing. Emil details multiple mechanisms to fund, contract, and scale capabilities despite slow congressional cycles, including rapid contracting vehicles and the Office of Strategic Capital’s low-cost loans.
- •‘Valley of Death’ stems from slow budgets and scaling gaps after prototypes
- •DIU: rapid contracting with ~$1B to move quickly with startups
- •Programs like AFIT help companies scale manufacturing after initial development
- •Office of Strategic Capital: large lending authority to crowd in private capital
- •Reserving discretionary budget for in-year decisions to counter delayed appropriations
- 32:09 – 41:41
Rebuilding domestic supply chains: critical minerals, brittle dependencies, and a founder ‘to-do list’
The discussion broadens to industrial policy and supply chain resilience—pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, minerals, and niche components like brushless motors and fiber. Emil explains how Strategic Capital targets brittle nodes and notes the need for a more public roadmap so founders know what to build.
- •National security rationale for reshoring critical capabilities and inputs
- •Strategic Capital targets brittle supply chains where capacity must expand ~10x
- •Examples: critical minerals, germanium, brushless motors, fiber optics, specialized nozzles
- •Desire for multiple suppliers to improve resilience and spur innovation
- •Acknowledges need for a clearer, publishable demand roadmap for entrepreneurs/investors
- 41:41 – 44:30
Lessons from two government eras: from counterinsurgency to near-peer tech competition
In closing, Emil contrasts his 2009–2010 White House Fellowship during the Global War on Terror with today’s near-peer environment. He says the shift became visceral once inside government—seeing how adversaries shaped markets and supply chains at speed.
- •Earlier era: counterinsurgency threats and crude weapons (e.g., IEDs)
- •Current era: near-peer adversary with space, long-range strike, drones, and AI
- •Realization deepened by learning specific supply chain dependencies firsthand
- •Emil frames his role as part of responding to a fundamentally changed battlefield
- •Wrap-up: hosts thank Emil; he reiterates intent to deliver a founder-oriented ‘to-do list’
