2024 Predictions on Tech, Business, and the Election

1. KSKara Swisher0:00

   Now, it's time for our predictions, of which we're not ready at all. But go for it, Scott. You start and I'll think of one while you're talking.

2. SGScott Galloway0:06

   Uh, okay. So I'm just randomly picking three, uh, and I can't help but play, um, a geopolitical commentator on television. So, um, I've said this before, I think that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel are gonna normalize relations, and I'm, I'm, I'm... I'd like to think that peace and prosperity have a- are gonna have a second chance or new- newfound vigor as the two largest economies normalize relations. I think, I think that President Biden sending these carrier strike forces has ring-fenced the conflict. I think the whole world is coming to the important recognition that you can have empathy for one side, and that doesn't immediately prohibit you from having empathy for the other. And I'm, so I'm, I'm just hopeful that, uh, the normalization of relationships, uh, relations between the Kingdom and Israel will create a lot of economic incentives to maintain something resembling, uh, peace. And I'd also say that it's not possible with the current leadership on either side, but I know it's no longer a conversation. Normalization of, normalization of relations-

3. KSKara Swisher1:10

   Yeah.

4. SGScott Galloway1:11

   ... in 2024 between the Kingdom and Israel. I believe that the world's largest tax cut, uh, in history is about to take place in 2024 as the US and China and Chinese relationship, uh, relations thaw. I think there's gonna be a new bear hug. I think that inflation in the United States is an existential threat across not only the United States, but governments are overthrown... If Roe v. Wade is overturned, people are upset about it, but only a small, a very small number of households are actually impacted. Inflation hits people every day, and it's literally the number one cause of why governments are overthrown or, or political parties are thrown out of office. So the US ha- and the West have an inflation problem. China has hit real roadblocks economically.

5. KSKara Swisher1:54

   Mm.

6. SGScott Galloway1:54

   Whether you look at their stock market, some of their biggest real estate, um, companies going out of business. And with a one-party system, if you have economic calamity, you re- you, you tempt or you risk revolution. And I think that while two years ago, they were definitely feeling, um, very emboldened, I think China now recognizes that, uh, their, they cannot take their economic growth for granted. They have had real economic issues the last two years. And the fastest way out of inflation and to renew economic growth across the largest and second-largest economies in the world are for the two to kiss and make up. And the IP and innovation of the US combined with the industrial and manufacturing might of China creates every single product (laughs) in the world for a lower price and a higher quality. And the, that chocolate and peanut butter of 88% of your toys under the Christmas tree, which come from China, being a little less expensive every year, uh, is going to, uh, the incentives are lining up for both parties to put their differences aside and re-embrace each other. So, normalization, or-

7. KSKara Swisher2:59

   Good.

8. SGScott Galloway2:59

   ... or a thawing of US-Sino relations in 2024.

9. KSKara Swisher3:03

   All right.

10. SGScott Galloway3:03

    And I think-

11. KSKara Swisher3:04

    You gonna do one more?

12. SGScott Galloway3:05

    ... and my final one is-

13. KSKara Swisher3:05

    All right, okay. Keep going.

14. SGScott Galloway3:06

    My final one is I think, um, I think that, um, we're gonna see, actually two more, uh, massive amount of disinformation from AI in Q1 and Q2. I've said this before around the election. And, uh, my, my, I think travel stocks are, uh, ranging from Expedia to, I don't know what's another, Airbnb. I'm a, by the way, I'm a holder in Airbnb, not in Ex- not in Expedia. Are going to boom. J- I think the travel industry is gonna boom. And unfortunately, there's a very dark side to this. And I think the reason they're gonna boom is I think people in their 20s, a lot of them have just given up on the traditional, uh, dream of owning a home. And because they're no longer saving two, three, five grand a year in hopes of moving into a home in their late 20s, early 30s, they're gonna be, they're gonna have more disposable income and they're gonna decide to spend it on travel as the traditional American dream of buying a home has just becomes kind of out of reach for them. And I think the travel industry is gonna be the unfortunate beneficiary of all this additional disposable income that traditionally has gone into saving for people's first home. 14 million homes have been formed in the last 10 years, and only 11 million homes have been built. Average cost of a home pre-pandemic was 290. It's now 420. And then you couple that with interest rates going from 3% to 7%, the American dream is now a hallucination for most people when it comes to home ownership. And I think that people are gonna spend more money on travel.

15. KSKara Swisher4:24

    Yeah.

16. SGScott Galloway4:24

    Travel stock's gonna boom.

17. KSKara Swisher4:26

    Wow, that's a lot. Wow, that's a lot of them. All right, I have, uh, two, I think. One, I think big one. Um, I don't think Donald Trump is gonna be the President of the United States. I think Joe Biden's gonna win, and I'm gonna say that now. Um-

18. SGScott Galloway4:40

    Mm-hmm.

19. KSKara Swisher4:40

    ... I know these polls are going this way. I think the American people have had it with him. And then the more you see of, of Uncle Crazy, the less you're gonna like what you see and remind you of bad times. I don't think you're gonna remember the tax cuts. I don't think you're gonna remember anything else. And I think the people will start to feel better about the economy, uh, over the next year. So I think, um, I think the age thing is a significant issue, obviously. But he's been doing so well, and, uh, and I think people are just gonna bite the bullet and, and, and vote for Joe Biden. And also, the- there's some real signs the Republican National Committee is way down in fundraising, both small donor and big donor.

20. SGScott Galloway5:15

    Mm.

21. KSKara Swisher5:15

    Everybody, people don't wanna give money that it's gonna help D- Donald Trump, I think. And people are very nervous about it. So I would... I'm gonna go out on a limb. He's not gonna be the president. I think we should calm the fuck down. I don't think he will. I think it'd be a disaster, obviously. Uh, but I don't think the American people... The, ev- every, every time there's that Kansas thing happening or what happened in Michigan with the judge or-

22. SGScott Galloway5:34

    Mm-hmm.

23. KSKara Swisher5:34

    ... they always go the other way that everyone is predicting. And these right-wingers are like, "We've got it now. J- Glenn Youngkin." And they, and I said the same thing about Glenn Youngkin. I was talking to a lot of people. I think people want to move on. And there should be, uh, the only caveat is this, is these third-party things, and we'll see. There could be-

24. SGScott Galloway5:52

    Yeah.

25. KSKara Swisher5:52

    ... issues around that. Um, but I have, I just have this feeling people are like-

26. SGScott Galloway5:56

    Y- y- y-

27. KSKara Swisher5:56

    ... "Let's just stick with the captain holder."

28. SGScott Galloway5:58

    You have a good gut.

29. KSKara Swisher5:59

    Yeah.

30. SGScott Galloway5:59

    You have a good gut on, uh, predictions around politics. So let me ask you a couple follow-ups.

Episode duration: 10:05