2024 Predictions on Tech, Business, and the Election

Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway share their 2024 predictions on China, Google, AI, stocks, and the presidential election. #pivot #podcast #2024 #predictions

Kara SwisherhostScott Gallowayhost

Dec 19, 202310mWatch on YouTube ↗

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20 min read · 4,438 words

0:00 – 1:11
Scott’s 2024 geopolitics bet: Saudi Arabia–Israel normalization
1. KSKara Swisher
  Now, it's time for our predictions, of which we're not ready at all. But go for it, Scott. You start and I'll think of one while you're talking.
2. SGScott Galloway
  Uh, okay. So I'm just randomly picking three, uh, and I can't help but play, um, a geopolitical commentator on television. So, um, I've said this before, I think that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel are gonna normalize relations, and I'm, I'm, I'm... I'd like to think that peace and prosperity have a- are gonna have a second chance or new- newfound vigor as the two largest economies normalize relations. I think, I think that President Biden sending these carrier strike forces has ring-fenced the conflict. I think the whole world is coming to the important recognition that you can have empathy for one side, and that doesn't immediately prohibit you from having empathy for the other. And I'm, so I'm, I'm just hopeful that, uh, the normalization of relationships, uh, relations between the Kingdom and Israel will create a lot of economic incentives to maintain something resembling, uh, peace. And I'd also say that it's not possible with the current leadership on either side, but I know it's no longer a conversation. Normalization of, normalization of relations-
3. KSKara Swisher
  Yeah.
1:11 – 3:06
US–China thaw as an “inflation tax cut” for consumers
1. SGScott Galloway
  ... in 2024 between the Kingdom and Israel. I believe that the world's largest tax cut, uh, in history is about to take place in 2024 as the US and China and Chinese relationship, uh, relations thaw. I think there's gonna be a new bear hug. I think that inflation in the United States is an existential threat across not only the United States, but governments are overthrown... If Roe v. Wade is overturned, people are upset about it, but only a small, a very small number of households are actually impacted. Inflation hits people every day, and it's literally the number one cause of why governments are overthrown or, or political parties are thrown out of office. So the US ha- and the West have an inflation problem. China has hit real roadblocks economically.
2. KSKara Swisher
  Mm.
3. SGScott Galloway
  Whether you look at their stock market, some of their biggest real estate, um, companies going out of business. And with a one-party system, if you have economic calamity, you re- you, you tempt or you risk revolution. And I think that while two years ago, they were definitely feeling, um, very emboldened, I think China now recognizes that, uh, their, they cannot take their economic growth for granted. They have had real economic issues the last two years. And the fastest way out of inflation and to renew economic growth across the largest and second-largest economies in the world are for the two to kiss and make up. And the IP and innovation of the US combined with the industrial and manufacturing might of China creates every single product (laughs) in the world for a lower price and a higher quality. And the, that chocolate and peanut butter of 88% of your toys under the Christmas tree, which come from China, being a little less expensive every year, uh, is going to, uh, the incentives are lining up for both parties to put their differences aside and re-embrace each other. So, normalization, or-
4. KSKara Swisher
  Good.
5. SGScott Galloway
  ... or a thawing of US-Sino relations in 2024.
6. KSKara Swisher
  All right.
7. SGScott Galloway
  And I think-
8. KSKara Swisher
  You gonna do one more?
9. SGScott Galloway
  ... and my final one is-
10. KSKara Swisher
  All right, okay. Keep going.
3:06 – 10:05
AI disinformation surge in early 2024 election season
1. SGScott Galloway
  My final one is I think, um, I think that, um, we're gonna see, actually two more, uh, massive amount of disinformation from AI in Q1 and Q2. I've said this before around the election. And, uh, my, my, I think travel stocks are, uh, ranging from Expedia to, I don't know what's another, Airbnb. I'm a, by the way, I'm a holder in Airbnb, not in Ex- not in Expedia. Are going to boom. J- I think the travel industry is gonna boom. And unfortunately, there's a very dark side to this. And I think the reason they're gonna boom is I think people in their 20s, a lot of them have just given up on the traditional, uh, dream of owning a home. And because they're no longer saving two, three, five grand a year in hopes of moving into a home in their late 20s, early 30s, they're gonna be, they're gonna have more disposable income and they're gonna decide to spend it on travel as the traditional American dream of buying a home has just becomes kind of out of reach for them. And I think the travel industry is gonna be the unfortunate beneficiary of all this additional disposable income that traditionally has gone into saving for people's first home. 14 million homes have been formed in the last 10 years, and only 11 million homes have been built. Average cost of a home pre-pandemic was 290. It's now 420. And then you couple that with interest rates going from 3% to 7%, the American dream is now a hallucination for most people when it comes to home ownership. And I think that people are gonna spend more money on travel.
2. KSKara Swisher
  Yeah.
3. SGScott Galloway
  Travel stock's gonna boom.
4. KSKara Swisher
  Wow, that's a lot. Wow, that's a lot of them. All right, I have, uh, two, I think. One, I think big one. Um, I don't think Donald Trump is gonna be the President of the United States. I think Joe Biden's gonna win, and I'm gonna say that now. Um-
5. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
6. KSKara Swisher
  ... I know these polls are going this way. I think the American people have had it with him. And then the more you see of, of Uncle Crazy, the less you're gonna like what you see and remind you of bad times. I don't think you're gonna remember the tax cuts. I don't think you're gonna remember anything else. And I think the people will start to feel better about the economy, uh, over the next year. So I think, um, I think the age thing is a significant issue, obviously. But he's been doing so well, and, uh, and I think people are just gonna bite the bullet and, and, and vote for Joe Biden. And also, the- there's some real signs the Republican National Committee is way down in fundraising, both small donor and big donor.
7. SGScott Galloway
  Mm.
8. KSKara Swisher
  Everybody, people don't wanna give money that it's gonna help D- Donald Trump, I think. And people are very nervous about it. So I would... I'm gonna go out on a limb. He's not gonna be the president. I think we should calm the fuck down. I don't think he will. I think it'd be a disaster, obviously. Uh, but I don't think the American people... The, ev- every, every time there's that Kansas thing happening or what happened in Michigan with the judge or-
9. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
10. KSKara Swisher
  ... they always go the other way that everyone is predicting. And these right-wingers are like, "We've got it now. J- Glenn Youngkin." And they, and I said the same thing about Glenn Youngkin. I was talking to a lot of people. I think people want to move on. And there should be, uh, the only caveat is this, is these third-party things, and we'll see. There could be-
11. SGScott Galloway
  Yeah.
12. KSKara Swisher
  ... issues around that. Um, but I have, I just have this feeling people are like-
13. SGScott Galloway
  Y- y- y-
14. KSKara Swisher
  ... "Let's just stick with the captain holder."
15. SGScott Galloway
  You have a good gut.
16. KSKara Swisher
  Yeah.
17. SGScott Galloway
  You have a good gut on, uh, predictions around politics. So let me ask you a couple follow-ups.
18. KSKara Swisher
  Sure.
19. SGScott Galloway
  Do you think Trump go, do you think Trump goes to jail?
20. KSKara Swisher
  Yes. Yes.
21. SGScott Galloway
  You do?
22. KSKara Swisher
  Every lawyer I talk to, there's no way he's getting away.
23. SGScott Galloway
  Pre- or post-election?
24. KSKara Swisher
  Well, a-as long as he gets convicted before the election. If not, he can pardon himself or there'll be a whole mess of things.
25. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
26. KSKara Swisher
  But that'll be his whole administration, is him pardoning himself and not getting anything done, so it'll be about him. He'll be just outrageous, and it'll be a useless waste of our time, and I don't think people wanna waste their time anymore. Um, so yes -
27. SGScott Galloway
  What about these third-party candidates? Do you think Joe Manchin's gonna run? Do you think RFK's running?
28. KSKara Swisher
  I think he doesn't have the set. I don't... Speaking of small pots.
29. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
30. KSKara Swisher
  No, I don't think he has the set. I think he's a egomaniac and a narcissist, but I don't think he has what it takes. I think he likes to be in the middle of things, but not the hard work of, of being a president and, uh, doing the things it takes. I even think Trump has got more of stamina than Joe Manchin. I think both of them do. I don't think he has stamina. I don't know, but I think RFK will fade, uh, as people get to know more about him. Uh, I think young people being ner-... I know a lot of people posted about going home and they, all these young people saying, "I'm not gonna vote for Joe, uh, Joe Biden 'cause of the Israel thing."
4:26 – 5:34
Kara’s core election call: Biden wins, Trump won’t be president
1. KSKara Swisher
  Wow, that's a lot. Wow, that's a lot of them. All right, I have, uh, two, I think. One, I think big one. Um, I don't think Donald Trump is gonna be the President of the United States. I think Joe Biden's gonna win, and I'm gonna say that now. Um-
2. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
3. KSKara Swisher
  ... I know these polls are going this way. I think the American people have had it with him. And then the more you see of, of Uncle Crazy, the less you're gonna like what you see and remind you of bad times. I don't think you're gonna remember the tax cuts. I don't think you're gonna remember anything else. And I think the people will start to feel better about the economy, uh, over the next year. So I think, um, I think the age thing is a significant issue, obviously. But he's been doing so well, and, uh, and I think people are just gonna bite the bullet and, and, and vote for Joe Biden. And also, the- there's some real signs the Republican National Committee is way down in fundraising, both small donor and big donor.
4. SGScott Galloway
  Mm.
5. KSKara Swisher
  Everybody, people don't wanna give money that it's gonna help D- Donald Trump, I think. And people are very nervous about it. So I would... I'm gonna go out on a limb. He's not gonna be the president. I think we should calm the fuck down. I don't think he will. I think it'd be a disaster, obviously. Uh, but I don't think the American people... The, ev- every, every time there's that Kansas thing happening or what happened in Michigan with the judge or-
6. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
5:34 – 6:03
The third-party wildcard and why Kara thinks it fades
1. KSKara Swisher
  ... they always go the other way that everyone is predicting. And these right-wingers are like, "We've got it now. J- Glenn Youngkin." And they, and I said the same thing about Glenn Youngkin. I was talking to a lot of people. I think people want to move on. And there should be, uh, the only caveat is this, is these third-party things, and we'll see. There could be-
2. SGScott Galloway
  Yeah.
3. KSKara Swisher
  ... issues around that. Um, but I have, I just have this feeling people are like-
4. SGScott Galloway
  Y- y- y-
5. KSKara Swisher
  ... "Let's just stick with the captain holder."
6. SGScott Galloway
  You have a good gut.
7. KSKara Swisher
  Yeah.
8. SGScott Galloway
  You have a good gut on, uh, predictions around politics. So let me ask you a couple follow-ups.
9. KSKara Swisher
  Sure.
6:03 – 7:18
Will Trump go to jail? Kara predicts conviction and incarceration
1. SGScott Galloway
  Do you think Trump go, do you think Trump goes to jail?
2. KSKara Swisher
  Yes. Yes.
3. SGScott Galloway
  You do?
4. KSKara Swisher
  Every lawyer I talk to, there's no way he's getting away.
5. SGScott Galloway
  Pre- or post-election?
6. KSKara Swisher
  Well, a-as long as he gets convicted before the election. If not, he can pardon himself or there'll be a whole mess of things.
7. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
8. KSKara Swisher
  But that'll be his whole administration, is him pardoning himself and not getting anything done, so it'll be about him. He'll be just outrageous, and it'll be a useless waste of our time, and I don't think people wanna waste their time anymore. Um, so yes -
9. SGScott Galloway
  What about these third-party candidates? Do you think Joe Manchin's gonna run? Do you think RFK's running?
10. KSKara Swisher
  I think he doesn't have the set. I don't... Speaking of small pots.
11. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
12. KSKara Swisher
  No, I don't think he has the set. I think he's a egomaniac and a narcissist, but I don't think he has what it takes. I think he likes to be in the middle of things, but not the hard work of, of being a president and, uh, doing the things it takes. I even think Trump has got more of stamina than Joe Manchin. I think both of them do. I don't think he has stamina. I don't know, but I think RFK will fade, uh, as people get to know more about him. Uh, I think young people being ner-... I know a lot of people posted about going home and they, all these young people saying, "I'm not gonna vote for Joe, uh, Joe Biden 'cause of the Israel thing."
13. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
14. KSKara Swisher
  That's a year from now.
15. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
16. KSKara Swisher
  I think when they're faced with Donald Trump, they're not gonna pull the... They're not gonna stay home, and they're not gonna m-... They know what that means. I think people will man up and do the right thing.
17. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
7:18 – 8:22
Kara’s tech prediction: DOJ may win the Google case
1. KSKara Swisher
  So anyway, that's my thought on that. Um, and in tech, um, I, I, I think the Justice Department might win this case with Google. I don't know-
2. SGScott Galloway
  It's looking that way, isn't it?
3. KSKara Swisher
  Yeah.
4. SGScott Galloway
  Yeah.
5. KSKara Swisher
  I think they will. I think, uh, they've got a good case. I think it's a backward-looking case, and they should be focusing on forward-looking things. But that's not the Justice Department's job here. Um, so I do think they're gonna win it. I don't know what the real repercussions will be 'cause it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a story of the past, and, um, search certainly has changed. That shouldn't be Google's defense here from what they did then, right? It can't say, "Well, murder's legal now." Or whatever, you know? (laughs)
6. SGScott Galloway
  Mm-hmm.
7. KSKara Swisher
  Uh, they, they don't have a excuse. What happened, happened, and I think they'll probably have an issue. I think they will lose this case, and then it'll just keep going on and on. Uh, but I do think the government, uh, might prevail here. Uh, I don't know about these Facebook cases, but definitely, um, uh, they've got a higher bar to prove on things. But they, they cer-... It certainly looks like maybe a good year for, for, for at least the Justice Department, not so much for regulatory, uh, bodies necessarily.
8. SGScott Galloway
  Just a prediction on top of a prediction.
9. KSKara Swisher
  Sure, sure.
8:22 – 9:11
If breakup talk heats up, Scott’s counterintuitive call: Google stock wins
1. SGScott Galloway
  If, if they are in fact found guilty and the remedy may be the breakup, and, um, it's not entirely clear-
2. KSKara Swisher
  I don't know.
3. SGScott Galloway
  ...even if they are found guilty, if that would be the remedy. But if the remedy looks like it's gonna be a breakup-
4. KSKara Swisher
  Mm-hmm.
5. SGScott Galloway
  ...uh, Google stock will outperform every other big tech-
6. KSKara Swisher
  Yeah, that's probably true.
7. SGScott Galloway
  ...stock in 2024.
8. KSKara Swisher
  You are 100% right, sir.
9. SGScott Galloway
  YouTube is a juggernaut on its own. I mean, obviously, search is just the ultimate tollbooth, and I... if they were to spin their AI and cloud division together, the sum of the parts... Google on a multiple of revenue-
10. KSKara Swisher
  Mm-hmm.
11. SGScott Galloway
  ...basis-
12. KSKara Swisher
  Mm-hmm.
13. SGScott Galloway
  ...is cheaper than every other big talk- uh, tech stock right now.
14. KSKara Swisher
  Yeah, you're 100% right. There, you're 100% right about that. I think that'll be interesting. You're right, it could be. I would spin off YouTube if I were there. Um, they've got plenty there to work with. Um, so we'll see. Th- those are my predictions.
15. SGScott Galloway
  I like it.
16. KSKara Swisher
  Pretty basic.
17. SGScott Galloway
  Good.
18. KSKara Swisher
  All right.
19. SGScott Galloway
  I hope you're right, hope you're right on all of that.
9:11 – 10:05
Closing banter: polls skepticism and the show’s signature crude joke
1. KSKara Swisher
  Uh, I, I shall be. I am good on the p- on the political stuff.
2. SGScott Galloway
  You are.
3. KSKara Swisher
  I seem to be good on the pl-... I just think people will be... Once they see that guy again, they've seen little bits of him, they'll be like, "Ugh, that guy. That guy. Ugh, I hate that guy."
4. SGScott Galloway
  I, I hope you're right. The data says we're both wrong.
5. KSKara Swisher
  Mm-mm.
6. SGScott Galloway
  Every time-
7. KSKara Swisher
  Nope.
8. SGScott Galloway
  ...he does-
9. KSKara Swisher
  Nope. The data doesn't.
10. SGScott Galloway
  No?
11. KSKara Swisher
  The polling does. The polling was wrong about everything.
12. SGScott Galloway
  Nope.
13. KSKara Swisher
  And I'm sorry-
14. SGScott Galloway
  Nope, fair enough.
15. KSKara Swisher
  ...I just don't believe polls.
16. SGScott Galloway
  Fair enough.
17. KSKara Swisher
  I think there's a silent majority of people who just wanna move on, from him first. Maybe they wanna-
18. SGScott Galloway
  Well, you know what, you know what I did last night?
19. KSKara Swisher
  They might wanna move on from Biden, but they really wanna move on from him.
20. SGScott Galloway
  Last night, as I said, I'm, I'm alone. I was alone-
21. KSKara Swisher
  Mm-hmm. Alone.
22. SGScott Galloway
  ...had an edible, and I took a poll-
23. KSKara Swisher
  Mm-hmm.
24. SGScott Galloway
  ...and stuck it up my ass. (laughs)
25. KSKara Swisher
  Oh, right. And we're gonna do... That is the show.
26. SGScott Galloway
  I'll be here all week, try the veal.
27. KSKara Swisher
  Let me tell you one other prediction. Scott will continue to make tasteless jokes no matter what I do, and I'm thinking of calling in the Justice Department.