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Fascist + Feckless: "The Worst Cocktail in the World for Democracy" | Pivot

Kara and Scott discuss Trump's threat to invoke the Insurrection Act amid ICE violence in Minneapolis. Then, Paramount files a lawsuit against Warner Bros in a desperate bid to block the Netflix deal, Apple strikes an AI deal with Google, and the FBI raids a Washington Post reporter's home. Plus, the Clintons refuse to testify in the Epstein inquiry, and Meta appoints a former Trump adviser as President. #pivot #podcast #karaswisher #scottgalloway #insurrectionact #ice #minneapolis #paramount #warnerbros #netflix #google #apple #washingtonpost #epstein #meta 00:00 Intro 00:35 Trump Threatens Insurrection Act 12:47 Iran’s Future 19:04 Epstein Files Delayed 30:36 Paramount Sues Warner Bros. 42:51 FBI Search Home of Washington Post Reporter 50:59 Apple and Google Team Up on AI 58:24 Meta Names Former Trump Adviser President 1:02:35 Predictions Producers: Lara Naaman Zoë Marcus Taylor Griffin Video Producer: Manolo Moreno Vox Media's Executive Producer of Podcasts: Nishat Kurwa Subscribe to Pivot on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pivot/id1073226719 Subscribe to Pivot on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4MU3RFGELZxPT9XHVwTNPR Follow us on Instagram and Threads at: https://www.instagram.com/pivotpodcastofficial/ Follow us on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@PIVOTPODCAST Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com

Kara SwisherhostScott Gallowayhost
Jan 16, 20261h 12mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:000:35

    Intro

    1. KS

      All this foreign policy chaos is conveniently distracting from the story Trump doesn't want to discuss, which again, is Jeffrey Epstein. [upbeat music] Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

    2. SG

      And I'm Scott Galloway.

    3. KS

      How you doing, Scott?

    4. SG

      I'm doing well.

    5. KS

      How's it going?

    6. SG

      How are you?

    7. KS

      This has been quite a week. This, uh, what's going on in this country is really disturbing [chuckles] on so many levels, and-

    8. SG

      Yeah.

    9. KS

      It's been disturbing. Um, and, uh, I don't know what to say. I think we probably should just get to the news. First, very quickly,

  2. 0:3512:47

    Trump Threatens Insurrection Act

    1. KS

      Donald Trump, uh, and I can't believe I'm saying this, is threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act as anti-ICE protests intensify in Minneapolis, largely because they've been egged on by ICE itself. The latest protests in the city began when a federal officer shot a man in the leg on Wednesday, just a week after an ICE agent fatally shot 37-year-old Rene Good. Uh, I, I, I don't quite know what to say. This is like, they are... From what- The, the word in Washington is Stephen Miller wants, uh, something that he can invoke the Insurrection Act and then declare martial law so they can't have l- midterm elections. That's the, that's the conspiracy theory running around Washington right now, and I got to say, this is- they are causing the problem, that you can look at these videos and see, like, absolutely pushing over old people, asking for people's papers. I feel like I'm, I'm in the middle of, like, a Nazi movie or something at this point. Thoughts?

    2. SG

      Well, we talked about this last time. The very founding of America was meant to, uh, avoid this. The, uh... Not wanting a monarch that could have unilateral, unchecked power and start harassing and terrorizing the population is, [scoffs] is the basis of the founding of America. The question is, what do you do about it? And what's really disappointed me, and I've h- been on the phone with a couple Democrats, is I believe that, uh, people at ICE and the officials and administrators who have ordered them and created a context around this, I think that they potentially could be guilty of second or third-degree murder, of manslaughter, of criminally negligent homicide, and absolutely of assault. And what I would be doing very publicly in the Congress and Senate is passing two types of- or proposing two types of laws which will not pass now, but should we have the kind of a momentum we believe we're going to have in '26 and then in '28, make sure that these officials ordering this type of depraved behavior and the people executing it understand that this is absolutely a possibility, and those two bills are the following: One is criminal charges and resources will be allocated to and very, with a fine tooth and comb, go through all of this video and be willing to, to charge these individuals. And two, something that says potentially that for certain types of crimes, including anything with the word homicide in it, uh, that, uh, from this point forward, once the- it's- the pardons are no longer valid. There, there has to be... I do find that the Democrats, you know- The strongly worded letter kind of defines, in my opinion, and Democrats will say, "Well, look, there's very little we can do," and I'm sympathetic to that because they, they, they do not- They're the minority, uh, in, in all three houses. I get it, but these folks need to be reminded very swiftly that, okay, the same overrun of judicial power and co-equal branches of government that you've committed, we could do the same, but we're going to do it to, to [chuckles] quite frankly, go, uh, weaponize- not weaponize. We believe the law, just enforced as it is correctly, could put many of these people behind bars, or at a minimum, impair their careers, which would be-

    3. KS

      Mm-hmm

    4. SG

      ... justifiable, and this- and begin laying the groundwork.

    5. KS

      Yeah, absolutely. The, the... You know, one of the things that's hard is that they keep doubling down, right? Like, there was a, you know, this... I'm sorry, it's a specious report from CBS News. No surprise at this point, um, about this-

    6. SG

      But they're relying less on experts and academics and-

    7. KS

      Yes, I know

    8. SG

      ... speaking to you.

    9. KS

      Oh, God, don't.

    10. SG

      God, I hated that. [chuckles]

    11. KS

      Don't, don't make me [chuckles] go into that ridiculous disaster over there. I'm not going to-

    12. SG

      Can I, can I just rant on that for a minute?

    13. KS

      Please, go right ahead, because you can Nikki, Nikki Glaser this for me, my friend.

    14. SG

      Well-

    15. KS

      Go ahead.

    16. SG

      I actually like the-

    17. KS

      She made a joke. I'm referencing a old joke.

    18. SG

      I like the guy who's the next host, the, the anchor. I, I actually think he's a great pick. I think he's handsome-

    19. KS

      Oh

    20. SG

      ... which I think-

    21. KS

      I think that's all they could get, but go ahead.

    22. SG

      Uh, I think he's really solid. I think he's really handsome.

    23. KS

      I get it. It's all they could get. They were looking at elsewhere, but go ahead.

    24. SG

      And I assume that he's a good person because I like Katie Toure and assume that anyone she decides to spend her life with is a good person. But that opening monologue, w- you know, it was fine, except for the part, "And we're gonna less- we're gonna rely..." It's something along the lines of, "We're gonna rely less on the academics and the experts and more on what the people think." That's saying, "Okay, we're gonna start entertaining conspiracy theory and misinformation." By the way, folks, the word expert in the US might as well be the word meritocracy.

    25. KS

      Yeah.

    26. SG

      And that is, you can be a, [exhales] a kid growing up in the poorest village outside of Hyderabad in India, and if you are just so fucking talented and hardworking and smart and end up at, I think it's called IIT, you can end up being one of those experts at Harvard that they're not gonna listen to, that knows more than anyone else in the world on mRNA vaccines. You can be-

    27. KS

      Mm-hmm

    28. SG

      ... you know, the son of a single mother, lived and died an expert-

    29. KS

      Yep

    30. SG

      ... and someday, quote, unquote, "Work your fucking ass off to be considered an expert in brand strategy."

  3. 12:4719:04

    Iran’s Future

    1. KS

      on, the US has exact-- uh, started evacuating some troops from a base in Qatar a-ahead of a potential military conflict with Iran, though Trump says he's been told the killing in Iran has stopped. No executions are planned, indicating he may-- moving away from taking military action. Uh, you know, uh, who-- I don't know. What, what's gonna happen here? There's, well, this weird betting happening by individuals again, very similar to the Venezuelan invasion. There are insiders in the government making money off of these military actions and maybe influencing them, too. That's another scary thing to think about. Um, what is-- what, what do you imagine happening? And at the same time, Denmark, Greenland, and their NA- NATO allies, including France and Germany, are increasing the military presence in and around Greenland. I can't believe I'm saying this. The move comes in the wake of a meeting at the White House between J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland. The Danish foreign minister said the talks were constructive, but fundamental disagreement remains. Ahead of the meeting, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that anything less than US control of Greenland is unacceptable. Uh, feels very, um, nerve-wracking. Um, at the same time, a lot-- There was an interesting article, and, um, I forget where it was, that, that J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio may be slow-rolling this into the grass so that Trump... They, they don't want it to happen, this Greenland thing. Um, and they're-- so they're just dragging it out so that Trump loses interest, uh, in the situation, but I don't know. Seems very strange to go to war with France.

    2. SG

      I mean, first off, there's a few things here. The, the potential for insider trading is just so insane-

    3. KS

      Yeah

    4. SG

      ... on Polymark- Polymarket and Kalshi right now.

    5. KS

      Kalshi.

    6. SG

      So Polymarket right now puts the likelihood that Khome- Khomeini will be out of Supreme Leader before twenty twenty-seven at sixty-three percent. So if you're part of the inner circle... And by the way, there's reports that they are transferring-- the senior leadership is transferring millions of dollars out of Iran, which is a very hopeful sign because they think they need to get the hell out. But if, if you know, okay, on Wednesday, we're all headed to Moscow, easy way to make fifty percent on your mo- money would be betting on one of these markets. So just to be clear, folks, just as the casino has figured out the odds of these numerical games that, on average, over time, they win-

    7. KS

      Mm-hmm

    8. SG

      ... when you don't have inside information on these things, eventually, you're playing at a disadvantage. The footnote here is the following, or the disclosure: I have not had any substantive conversations, before I say that, because this is such a hot topic, with anyone senior in the Israeli government. This is pure speculation on my part. But I talk a lot about Israel. My background's in brand, and I would consistently get calls from people in Israel, in the government, and in the private sector saying, "What can we do about our brand?" Uh-

    9. KS

      Yeah

    10. SG

      ... the brand Israel is so terrible-

    11. KS

      It's-

    12. SG

      - around the world.

    13. KS

      Terrible.

    14. SG

      And the general belief is, if you look at actually what we're doing relative to other wars, it's just being characterized unfairly, and we think a lot of it-- We're shocked at how poorly our brand or how dramatically our brand has eroded. And I remember when I was a kid, the Israeli brand was one of the strongest brands in the world. Entebbe, uh, Munich, they were just seen as the good guys. They are no longer seen as the good guys, and so they're constantly calling and asking: What can we do about the brand? I think the most brand creative move that Israel could do, the biggest opportunity for Israel right now, would be to go in and do what they did, uh, when they decided to take out their air defenses or something along the same lines. And that is, when they decided to take out their air defenses and basically neuter Iran, who has been the primary sponsor of terror across the region for a couple decades, they, they said, "Okay, they are basically-- When our jets fly in, the surface-to-air missiles, the air defense systems, are operated by, uh, this, this group of people, and there's six to eight people that need to give the order to fire missiles at alien aircraft." [chuckles] And you know what they did that day? They killed them. They had targeted assassinations. Within, like, an hour, six of the eight were dead, and then when the radar sensed these, these, these, you know, F-15s flying in, there was no one to give the order. And I know that sounds really, you know, macabre and ugly, but in my opinion, these are murderers right now. I think if they were-- It's clear that the Mossad has deeply penetrated soft assets at the highest level in Iran. But coordinated military strikes of s-centers of civilian suppression with the US Air Force and on-the-ground soft assets that wreak havoc across what is a murderous IRGC right now, I think is not only geopolitically very smart over the long term, but I think would be very good for, uh, brand Israel right now.

    15. KS

      Well, they've got a lot of things to do. [chuckles] Let's put it there.

    16. SG

      Well, uh, right, but, but I think this-- You know what I found-

    17. KS

      This is related to Iran

    18. SG

      ... I found really heartening? These protests-

    19. KS

      Mm

    20. SG

      ... in New York, where I see Iranian and f- and, uh, uh, flags of Israel, I actually find that quite-

    21. KS

      Yeah

    22. SG

      ... encouraging-

    23. KS

      Yeah, yeah

    24. SG

      - to think that we might start-

    25. KS

      You saw Mamdani push back. You saw AOC push back on a lot of these, uh, uh, Mar- you know, Hamas-supporting stuff. They were, they were very clear about what happened. I think one of the things is, i-i-- that with Iran, I, I-- You and I both agree that Iran is a, is a m-menacing country, um, and also would be a really huge opportunity for democracy.

    26. SG

      The leadership, the IRGC, the, the-

    27. KS

      Yeah

    28. SG

      ... Islamic Republic.

    29. KS

      Yeah.

    30. SG

      Yeah.

  4. 19:0430:36

    Epstein Files Delayed

    1. KS

      it's been nearly a month since the deadline for releasing the Epstein files came and went, and the Justice Department appears to be going nowhere close to making a full files public. I think they have 1% or something. The DOJ said in a filing last week that it reviewed more, about 12,000 documents out of more than two million, incredible amount of documents. Democratic Representative Ro Khanna and, uh, Republican Representative Thomas Massie, who is really quite a badass these days, have filed a complaint with a federal judge. They're asking for the judge to appoint what they call a special master to force the DOJ to release the files. I actually spoke with Ro Khanna on the latest episode of On with Kara Swisher and asked him, "What happens next?" 'Cause this is actually a process. They have gotten the, the law passed. They had-- the DOJ has to comply. The DOJ didn't comply, now they have to do this. Let's listen.

    2. SP

      We will see some of these millions of documents because the Justice Department has said to the judge they're releasing them. The question is the quality of that, and will they have excessive redactions? And then Thomas Massie and I are planning to in- introduce inherent contempt. Uh, inherent contempt, if it passes the House, it just requires the House, would fine Pam Bondi personally $10,000 a day, uh, for every document that she didn't release. Whether that passes and is enforced, uh, the point is, it's showing the crack in the MAGA base.

    3. KS

      Which is interesting. Let me just finish this-

    4. SG

      Well, that's actually doing something.

    5. KS

      Yes, exactly.

    6. SG

      Kudos to that person. [chuckles]

    7. KS

      Yes, and also, they're trying to get this special master, which I think is another thing, which is probably the right thing to do here. Meanwhile, Bill and Hillary Clinton released a scathing letter to... [chuckles] You gotta read this letter to the House, uh, Oversight Committee this week, saying they will not testify in the, uh, Epstein investigation. I will say Ro Khanna said they should testify. At the same time, they are having a quite a good point, uh, noting, "Every person, uh, has to decide when they have seen or had enough and are ready to fight for this country, its principles, its people, no matter the consequences. For us, now is the time." The House Republicans are moving to hold both Clintons in contempt. Of course, they don't think Trump should testify, which I... Which is a good reason for the Clintons maybe not to. Um, this continues to be the story that doesn't go away, and, uh, talk about, uh, what's happening here because, you know, w- he is doing a lot of this to get the focus off of Epstein, which is gonna come out no matter what he does. I mean, this is not, this is not to be quashed at this point, is my feeling, but-

    8. SG

      Well, I just want to go back to Denmark for a moment-

    9. KS

      Yeah

    10. SG

      ... Then we'll talk about Epstein.

    11. KS

      Yeah.

    12. SG

      So my favorite meal in the world is-

    13. KS

      [chuckles]

    14. SG

      ... um, In-N-Out, Animal Style, at the Sepulveda, the In-N-Out on Sepulveda, near LAX.

    15. KS

      Good choice.

    16. SG

      Because what it means is, I've just gotten to LA, I'm about to roll into the Beverly Hills Hotel, roll up to the bar, uh, perhaps get my eye contact returned from a lovely woman who perhaps might be from Russia, but it just signals that bunch of good things are about to happen, Kara, and I'm about to roll with my buddy, Mike. I absolutely love LA. My second favorite meal is a latte and grapefruit, and yogurt at Jack's Wife Freda, just sitting out there, watching the world go by. I feel like I'm an author in, I don't know, 1920s France. My third-

    17. KS

      Can I just note?

    18. SG

      Yeah.

    19. KS

      If we were on The Newlywed Game, I would know all this, but go ahead. [chuckles] I do know all this.

    20. SG

      My favorite with Bob Eubanks, outstanding talk show host, asked, "What is, what is somewhere, uh, recently you've gone that it was interesting, or where, what do you-- where do you wanna go, or where have you visited recently that you and your husband enjoyed?" And she looked down, and then she looked up and said, "In the ass." And they didn't even bleep it out 'cause they were so, they were so shocked.

    21. KS

      [chuckles]

    22. SG

      Anyways, good times. And so, uh, my third favorite meal is anything from Chipotle.

    23. KS

      Okay.

    24. SG

      The fact that Chipotle is not a sponsor of everything I do is a-

    25. KS

      Yeah

    26. SG

      ... a crime against commerce.

    27. KS

      Same thing with Raven.

    28. SG

      I can walk into Chipotle-

    29. KS

      Okay

    30. SG

      ... with a blindfold, and I walk out with a smile on my face.

  5. 30:3642:51

    Paramount Sues Warner Bros.

    1. KS

      The battle for Warner Brothers [chuckles] is, yeah, is continuing, and as, as Paramount continues to fall downstairs, uh, on this, in doing deal-making. Uh, Paramount filed a lawsuit against Warner Brothers and its CEO, David Zaslav, this week, trying to get them to turn over details of their sale process and the Netflix deal. Warner Brothers is calling the lawsuit meritless. Paramount also announced plans to nominate its own slate of directors to Warner Brothers' board to vote against the next deal. This is very typical in these fights. Netflix is making some moves ahead of its own, reportedly amending its offer to an all-cash deal, very savvy, which could speed up the process significantly. The stock is down, so it makes sense, and it makes it more attractive, uh, and gets that-... problem out of the way, the stock declining. Um, I'd love you to talk about the board dynamics. I talked to Bill Cohen last night, and he was like: "I don't understand why you would- and you would, sugar, give the money, give thirty-four dollars a share. You don't do vinegar here after doing so many stupid things in this deal." And, and actually, let me note, lengthening the timeframe because Trump is- i- if martial law doesn't happen, Trump loses the House and the Senate, this deal is fucked for the Paramount people. So the timeframe is really bad, uh, for them at this point. They're taking too long to get this. If they got their hands on this, it, it- Trump will be damaged by the time and unable to help them. But, um, what do you think of this proxy strategy? You've been in the middle of these things a million times.

    2. SG

      Yeah, it's, uh, [exhales] Bill's exactly right. Um, at some point... I mean, they went through a long process, and to Zaslav and their bankers' credit, they got the number much higher than anyone, including me, had anticipated. And at some point, they have to say: "Okay, this is, this is why we're picking this deal, and you have to be able to economically justify it for shareholders." Uh, there was justification for a lot of reasons that, that the Netflix was the superior bid. And I have never been on a company that's been acquired or has acquired another company or has gone out of business where there's not lawsuits. I was on the board of Eddie Bauer, like, when we declared-

    3. KS

      What?

    4. SG

      -bankruptcy. I was on-

    5. KS

      Really? You were on the board of Eddie Bauer? I forgot. Okay.

    6. SG

      Um, yeah, well, because I'm such a great outdoorsman, um-

    7. KS

      [chuckles]

    8. SG

      ... it just made sense.

    9. KS

      [chuckles] I see you hiking anyway.

    10. SG

      Um-

    11. KS

      We're going on a hike someday. Go ahead.

    12. SG

      Anyways, these guys don't scare easily. They just send the law- uh, the, the lawsuit's not gonna have any merit. It's just might, it might tie it up or delay it, but it just adds another moving part to what is already gonna be a complicated, messy situation. Uh, the only thing that talks here is, uh, they gotta put thirty-four dollars a share on the table. They've gotta-- And not only that, it has to be incre- the, the increase, the incremental offer has to be great enough to justify a potential breakup, where I believe WBB would have to pay Netflix two billion dollars.

    13. KS

      Yes, exactly.

    14. SG

      So-

    15. KS

      And also, the, all those loan covenant things, they have to get their nose out of. They have to let Warner Bros. do those loans.

    16. SG

      The only way this happens is-

    17. KS

      Two billion or something

    18. SG

      ... the only way this happens, there's- they're not gonna block this deal with lawsuits. The only way this happens is if Larry Ellison goes, "Whatever, I'm eighty-one fucking years old. I'm worth..." I don't know what. I think he's the third richest man in the world. I know-

    19. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    20. SG

      I know he's less wealthy now.

    21. KS

      It went down, yeah.

    22. SG

      But that he just says, or Saudi money shows up and says, "Larry, if you're willing to put in another ten, we'll put in another ten." And they show up with a fifteen percent premium to the current offer. That's the only way the board is legally, because of Revlon laws-

    23. KS

      Mm-hmm

    24. SG

      ... I don't even think it can't even be incremental, but if it's three or five percent, they would say the additional risk injected into the deal and the breakup fee means that this is a wash, and we, we are just going with this dance partner as committed.

    25. KS

      Y- there was a really interesting note, um, you know, you and I both know Vivi Nevo. Uh, [chuckles] he's so funny. He's a funny little guy. Um, uh, who is a very big investor in a lot of stuff, and he's, he's, he's very amusing on many levels, um, and, uh, has been a sort of a quiet whisper to lots of moguls. He was sitting next to David Zaslav at, um... which many people pointed out, at the, uh, Golden Globes, which was- and not with- uh, and he's a, he's a Warner Bros. shareholder, uh, and not with David Ellison, who apparently [chuckles] was seated in the back, but as he's being insulted by the host of a show that's on his network, which I loved. Um, uh, I, I- it was really interesting. That was a really interesting- Zaslav sort of flexing a little bit there, having Vivi next to him. Um, and, and, and, and I think this, uh, I get lawsuits are typical, but it seems like not the way to do this. Like, just give them the money. I just, I keep going.

    26. SG

      Agreed.

    27. KS

      And same thing that, that, that Bill says, "Give them the money. Just give them the money. That will work." Why aren't they giving them the money? That's-

    28. SG

      Well, you mean offer more money?

    29. KS

      Yeah.

    30. SG

      Offer-

  6. 42:5150:59

    FBI Search Home of Washington Post Reporter

    1. KS

      searched the home of Washington Post reporter Hannah Natanson on Wednesday, seizing laptops, a phone, and a smartwatch. Natanson has spent the last three years covering the Trump administration's efforts to fire federal workers. The search is part of an investigation, they say, into a Maryland system administration accused of taking home classified intelligence report. It's a pretext, frankly. The Washington Post has been told, uh, neither Natanson nor the outlet are the target of the investigation. The head of the Wa- the, the editor of The Washington Post, Matt Murray, did a terrific letter. Uh, it took a while to hear from, uh, the CEO, uh, Will, uh, Lewis. Jeff Bezos has not said word one, and he's getting enormous amounts of criticism from readers remaining quiet in the hours following the news. Um,... I, I think the newsroom leaders have been, done the right thing and everything else, but this is a, this, this is a Trump administration trying to really go for the press at this point, um, and going for their sources. Uh, there's no reason to take this woman's, uh, information on, on another investigation, and it's a pretext as, as all it is. Uh, but Jeff Bezos not standing up is what ano- he's busy partying in Aspen, presumably, but another reason why he's a terrible owner for The Washington Post. You need to stand up at times like this.

    2. SG

      Yeah, I stopped listening about 30 some seconds ago.

    3. KS

      No, stop it!

    4. SG

      I'm bored by-

    5. KS

      It matters.

    6. SG

      You're, you're just masturbating.

    7. KS

      You know what? You talk about democracy-

    8. SG

      Journalism, where's my vibrator? [chuckles]

    9. KS

      Not journalism.

    10. SG

      Jesus. [chuckles]

    11. KS

      You don't... There's-

    12. SG

      [exhales]

    13. KS

      We have rules in this country. Why does my stuff-

    14. SG

      Let's talk about Bob Iger. Hold on.

    15. KS

      No.

    16. SG

      Hold on.

    17. KS

      Why does my stuff not ma- why does the press... You talk about-

    18. SG

      Why does my stuff not matter?

    19. KS

      -the importance of democracy.

    20. SG

      Are we married now?

    21. KS

      No, but I'm just saying-

    22. SG

      Why does my stuff not-

    23. KS

      You talk about democracy.

    24. SG

      You don't touch me anymore!

    25. KS

      [chuckles] The press is an important part of this entire thing.

    26. SG

      You don't notice me. Oh, my God.

    27. KS

      State media is c- is being created, uh, even as we speak. Jeff Bezos, if he wants to own this fantastic newspaper still, despite his best efforts to make it suck-

    28. SG

      Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm

    29. KS

      ... should stand up.

    30. SG

      Yeah, yeah.

  7. 50:5958:24

    Apple and Google Team Up on AI

    1. KS

      back with more news. Apple and Google have announced a multi-year deal for Apple to base its AI products on technology developed by Google. Upcoming versions of Apple Intelligence will be based on Gemini AI models, powering Siri and other AI features. Alphabet stock jumped on the news, making it the fourth publicly traded company to be worth over four trillion dollars. Uh, it's interesting 'cause they did have a-- they were mobbed up a little bit with OpenAI, as you know, uh, for a little bit, and now they're... And, of course, there's many criticisms of Apple, uh, being behind. Meanwhile, several publishers, including our own Vox Media, The Atlantic, Penske Media, are suing Google for antitrust violations over its dominant ad tech business. There's a case happening, too. Meta has named former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick to serve as president and vice chair. McCormick, uh, Powell McCormick served as Trump's deputy national security adviser during his first term. That's when I met her. Uh, but President Trump posted Truth Social, congratulating Powell McCormick, calling it move a great choice by Mark Z. I'll, I'll comment on that at the end, uh, because I think she's highly competent, um, and she used to work for Goldman Sachs, I want to leave that out, and is married to Senator David McCormick of Pennsylvania. They're a power couple, obviously. But talk about the Google-Apple thing and the, um, and the lawsuit.

    2. SG

      I think you know more about this than I do, Kara. I'm interested in your thoughts.

    3. KS

      Uh, I think, you know, Apple's been criticized for being behind in this-

    4. SG

      Mm-hmm

    5. KS

      ... in the AI stuff. They haven't been developing it. They've been losing staff in that way. Obviously, they've decided not to participate in the, in the money spending in this area that Google and others are doing. Um, I think it makes sense. They had- they have strong relationships over mapping and, and search and everything else, and I think they may be, um... I don't know. They've, they've gotten in trouble over the mapping and everything and, and the search, making them the default search, and so they may be just doing it again, right? If Google and Apple do this. I think they don't have the capabilities. And, and you, a-and, and Gemini has gotten a lot better, I have to say, even on the, on Google Search, when I use it very rarely now. So they have to be, um, mobbed up with an Apple because that's where people get their information. Uh, we'll see. I think it's in the, in the light of that there is still an ad tech case by the federal government, and then now this one. Um, these people have complained about Google but never done anything, and now they've done it. Um, I think this is exactly what they should do is, uh, is sue them. I mean, I've always thought they should sue them in this regard, 'cause Google is on both sides of the ad trade, uh, and shouldn't be. Um, and I do think the case that the government has is a strong one, um, against Google. So any thoughts?

    6. SG

      Well, I thought, I thought Apple not entering into the capital wars of AI was a really deft move because I thought they were gonna pull a search and say, "All right, you guys fight it out for search, and we'll just sequester access to the most valuable billion consumers in the world," that really are the only-

    7. KS

      They did that with Maps, too.

    8. SG

      Right. They're, they're really only, the only c- So what is it? There are now more phone contracts than there are people on the planet, and a billion of those, or one point two billion of those, I think, are iOS. And quite frankly, they're the only people that matter 'cause they're the only people with money. And when you carry an Android phone, and I've said this for a long time, you're communicating to the world that things just quite haven't worked out for you. And so Apple and iOS is like, is responsible for something like eighty percent of online commerce. They just spend... You can get a free phone. You can get an amazing phone and a free phone as long as it's Android, and these things cost three months' salary in Hungary now, the iPhone. It's the ultimate, the ultimate signal as a, as your worth as a mate, is whether you have iOS or not. And so what they do is they know the value of that, and they said to Search, "If you want to be put in front of the billion most powerful consumers in the world, you've got to pay us not five, not ten, but twenty billion dollars a year." I thought they were gonna have the same type of leverage with these LLMs-

    9. KS

      Yeah

    10. SG

      ... That one of these LLMs was gonna pay them a massive amount of money to be the default.

    11. KS

      Well, that may [chuckles] be the case here. We'll have to see, right?

    12. SG

      But it look, it looks like there-- It looks like it's sort of the, the, the technology is so differentiated, and they need it so much, that Apple doesn't have the leverage, at least I thought, because what it looks like, it looks like they're gonna actually pay, my understanding is, pay, uh, Alphabet about a billion dollars to use Gemini. So the leverage is sort of switched back to the provider here, to the content, as opposed to the distribution. What's interesting is why they've decided to support... I think they've decided-- I mean, i- if you look at the market share, there's a couple things. I've been giving all these talks about AI. There's a couple things about LLM market share that are just sort of interesting. It's likely and obvious and understandable that OpenAI would be ceding its eighty, seventy percent share, that other people would be chipping away-

    13. KS

      Yeah, now it is.

    14. SG

      Yeah.

    15. KS

      Google's come up, and they've come down.

    16. SG

      And the two, the two that have been eating share-... or have been one, Gemini, and two, the LLMs, the open-weight LLMs coming out of China.

    17. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    18. SG

      And-

    19. KS

      That's exactly right.

    20. SG

      It, it makes sense that-

    21. KS

      And that's it. By the way, that's it. The others are not growing any-- interrupted.

    22. SG

      And by the way, Google Search still gets about ninety times the, the number of queries [chuckles] -

    23. KS

      Yeah. Yeah.

    24. SG

      Um, just on a c- a different point-

    25. KS

      They've done a good job integrating AI. They have. There's no-

    26. SG

      Greg Shove, the, the CEO of Section AI, that upskills corporations for AI adoption, has said so- said something to me that I thought was really bang on. He said, "Of the billion people out there that might use AI in the next couple of years, only forty million are gonna be willing to pay it. So really, OpenAI right now is one of two, one of two forks in the road. They either get massive, massive enterprise adoption, or they go bankrupt." He goes, "There's no way there's enough consumers willing to pay twenty bucks a month-"

    27. KS

      Like I say, it's Apple or Google. Which one are you gonna be?

    28. SG

      So anyways, but this is... I think this is a huge win for Alphabet. They're gonna be put in front of the most valuable consumers in the world, or the ones that, you know, the ones that have money. And I would imagine the reason they're doing this is they're thinking that this is gonna give an enormous boost to Gemini. So they either strategically have decided they don't want OpenAI as a viable competitor, and two, they've-- Also, I wouldn't be surprised... People forget, these are people with enormous egos, and I say that in a good way. They are so- They will not spend time with their families, they will ignore their health because they want to win so badly, and they want to be relevant in the world, and one way to do that is to be the CEO of a company and beat everybody else. I would-- I wouldn't be surprised, and I, I'm curious what are your thoughts, if Tim Cook, quite frankly, is a little pissed off at Ive and this whole bromance of how-

    29. KS

      Yeah, maybe

    30. SG

      ... and the implication that OpenAI is gonna build-

  8. 58:241:02:35

    Meta Names Former Trump Adviser President

    1. SG

      my, my thing is that essentially, Meta and Jensen and Huan all realize one thing. Quote, unquote, "She's not in charge of partnerships with the government around data centers. She's in charge of figuring out a way to elegantly get them, the government, to pay for it and ultimately bail them out."

    2. KS

      Yeah. Obviously.

    3. SG

      Because their plans around data centers, even they cannot finance.

    4. KS

      Yeah. Well, that's-

    5. SG

      So what is she there to do? I think Dina-

    6. KS

      Finance.

    7. SG

      Yeah, I think Dina is there to go to the s- you know, Treasury Secretary and the Commerce Secretary: "You know why it makes sense for the government to issue bonds and backstop four trillion dollars in debt for us? Because it'll grow the economy," and...

    8. KS

      Yeah.

    9. SG

      I think she's there with the world's most elegant, biggest fucking hat-

    10. KS

      Yeah

    11. SG

      ... to try and get Trump to justify and announce that he's going to backstop-

    12. KS

      See? You know. You know, Scott, very well.

    13. SG

      So you agree?

    14. KS

      Yeah. Oh, I think so. I think she's there... She's a Goldman. I mean, they, they leave out. They-- A lot of the, a lot of the reaction was, "Oh, it's a sop to Trump." I don't think that's the case at all here. I think she's actually a very deft networker. She left the Trump administration rather early, and i- has a very good reputation as a networker. She was at Goldman Sachs, very tight with those people, um, was there for a long time. She's a, she's a, she, she knows everybody, and actually across all party lines, which is really interesting. And so I think Meta, i- has, has n- doesn't have much capital experience in figuring out how to capitalize these things, these data centers, and has been very far behind. The other thing is, you know, I think the sop to Trump is too easy, is too easy. I think she's the right person, especially if Trump starts to lose power. She is not, uh... She, she is part-- She has been close. Everyone has to, who's participating, has to be- have a relationship with Trump, but it's not-- She hasn't gone over the edge in the way that some others have. Um, so there's that. I think she has some credibility with Democrats, from what I can glean.

    15. SG

      She's, she's now the head of the, she's now the head of the big tech pack, and she will orchestrate the largest-

    16. KS

      Yes

    17. SG

      ... bailout for tech since Covid.

    18. KS

      Possibly, or else figure out how to capitalize this stuff, right? How to get the money for it. Um, the other thing-

    19. SG

      Which is a bailout if it comes from the government.

    20. KS

      Yeah, so she... The o- the other thing I think she has to avoid being is Sheryl Sandberg, too, right? Like, seen as that way. Um, and so I think that's-

    21. SG

      I don't think she will, though, unless she's gonna-

    22. KS

      No, no

    23. SG

      ... unless she's gonna, like, claim, you know... Well, let me just be honest. Unless she's gonna-

    24. KS

      She won't

    25. SG

      ... pretend to promote gender equality-

    26. KS

      She will not

    27. SG

      ... while depressing teens all over the world.

    28. KS

      This is not a Dina thing. She will not. She's actually, interestingly, she's very close to Nikki Haley. Um, uh, she's definitely a Republican. A very interesting background, but I, I agree with you. It's all about the data centers. You're one hun-- Good for you, Scott, not knowing everything. You're absolutely-

    29. SG

      There you go

    30. KS

      ... Financing and-

  9. 1:02:351:12:36

    Predictions

    1. KS

      Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. The only thing I want to say is-

    2. SG

      Mm-hmm

    3. KS

      ... I thought that xAI, it has disabled the ability for Grok to create sexualized images of real people, including children, following a wide backlash. Um, it's pretty easy to generate those deepfakes, by the way, but I'm not surp- I, I think I got it right that he was gonna give up, even though he was pretending he wasn't. Uh, on this stuff, uh, I think he's going to continue to double down. That's my prediction. Because, like, I, I don't know what else to say. This guy is a really heinous character, and he thinks- he's equating free speech with sexualization of children, is really where we are right now with him, and, and that Apple... I don't think Apple and Google will do anything about it, which they should have at the- before this. But he's backed off, so there you have it. Maybe they did behind the scenes, I don't know. Go ahead.

    4. SG

      Yeah, so we've been talking about Warner Bros. Discovery. It's about to go into boring mode, where they just try-

    5. KS

      Mm

    6. SG

      ... and get through CFIUS and antitrust and all the lawsuits and reviews, you know, for the next 18 or 24 months.

    7. KS

      Yeah.

    8. SG

      The next thing that's going to preoccupy us is there's going to be, uh, most likely an activist, because it's so big, but Dis- Disney's going to be put in play.

    9. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SG

      The leadership transition here is uncertain. Um, he says, Iger says he plans to retire, but succession issues have traditionally invited shareholder activism, and a moment of a leadership change is an opportunity for an activist to kind of pop up-

    11. KS

      Mm-hmm

    12. SG

      ... and play CEO.

    13. KS

      Have you been called, Scott Galloway?

    14. SG

      There you go. Yeah, God, that was- I was literally the world's worst athlete in the history of UCLA-

    15. KS

      [chuckles]

    16. SG

      ... and I imagine I'm, like, the world's worst activist.

    17. KS

      [chuckles]

    18. SG

      Um, uh, they'll get pressure from activist investor-

    19. KS

      Mm-hmm

    20. SG

      ... whether it's, whether it's Nelson. Um, you know, th- this thing, basically, it's at its, [exhales] uh-

    21. KS

      It's flat.

    22. SG

      In a market that's tripled or-

    23. KS

      Flat

    24. SG

      ... quadrupled, it's flat over the last ten years. And you look at this IP and these parks, it's just there's very few companies that have more assets than Disney right now.

    25. KS

      Nobody has it. Warner. Warner would be the second, but Disney's top. You're right.

    26. SG

      There's just something about... I mean, look at Disney. These parks, these cruises, are singular, and Netflix can't spin up [chuckles] a Disney park in two-

    27. KS

      Mm

    28. SG

      ... three decades. It would take fifty years. The, obviously, the IP here, Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, theme parks, ESPN-

    29. KS

      Why flat, then? Why is it flat then?

    30. SG

      Because they haven't been able to grow earnings.

Episode duration: 1:12:36

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